Moffett

Wall Street is worried the cable industry will not be able to report major subscriber gains going forward because just about every middle/upper-income customer that wants broadband within cable’s footprint already has the service from either the phone or cable company.

Cable analyst Craig Moffett from MoffettNathanson Research predicts singing up the last 20% of Americans who don’t subscribe to broadband service will be challenging. As of today, 73% have the service, up 2.5% from last year. An increasingly anemic growth rate is a sign the marketplace is getting saturated, with only low-income Americans underrepresented, primarily because they can’t afford the asking price. Most of the rest don’t own or want computers or Internet access or live in a rural area where the service is unavailable.

Under these circumstances, it is no surprise broadband providers are reporting lower new customer gains. Time Warner Cable and Cablevision actually lost broadband customers in the third quarter, mostly to Verizon FiOS. For the last five years, the cable industry has picked up most of its broadband customers from phone companies offering only DSL service.

“To be sure cable is still taking share [from telco DSL] but it is doing so at a much more modest pace,” Moffett said.

The industry’s best chance for new subscriber growth appears to be bundling computers or tablets with an entry-level broadband offering targeting the poor.

Although cable companies are not supplying free PCs just yet, many are introducing relatively slow, budget-priced broadband tiers to attract lower-income subscribers.

Time Warner Cable introduced a $14.95 2/1Mbps broadband tier this month the company hopes will attract price-sensitive customers, especially those now subscribed to low-speed DSL.

Comcast has Internet Essentials, a $10 slow speed broadband service for families with children enrolled in the federal student lunch program. It is also rolling out a “prepaid Internet service” directly targeting low-income customers. Prepaid customers pay $69.95 for an activation kit containing a DOCSIS 3 modem and a month of broadband service. Renewals are priced at $15 for a week or $45 for a month for 3Mbps service with a 768kbps upload rate.

Most other cable providers offer entry-level broadband speeds, but usually only as a retention tool. Even if the industry custom-targets low-speed tiers to low-income homes, many customers may never make it past the cable industry’s credit check procedure. Comcast’s prepaid offering avoids that problem.

Next generation cable or a spray-on solution to a really bad quarter?

Time Warner Cable has a plan for multi-gigabit broadband speeds over a state of the art network that, for the first time, might include fiber to the home service.

TWC Max is Time Warner Cable’s code name for selected markets where customers will be given first class treatment and provided what incoming CEO Rob Marcus calls “best-in-class reliability and service.”

Marcus made it clear in a conference call to investors this morning that TWC Max will only be available in specially chosen markets, most likely those facing intense competition from Google Fiber (Austin, Kansas City), Verizon FiOS (New York, parts of Dallas, etc.) or upgraded AT&T U-verse.

TWC Max might also be offered in cities where community-owned fiber-to-the-home providers best TWC’s broadband speeds and prices. North Carolina, in particular, would be a logical choice as Time Warner Cable recently acquired DukeNet, a major commercial fiber broadband provider headquarted in Charlotte, also a major hub for Time Warner Cable’s data services. Wilson, Salisbury, Mooresville, Davidson and Cornelius are all served by publicly-owned broadband providers.

Beginning next year and over the next several years, those chosen will get major broadband speed upgrades — up to several gigabits, totally new customer equipment, and an all-digital experience.

“We will replace modems with state-of-the-art DOCSIS 3 modems and advanced wireless gateways, so we can meaningfully increase broadband speeds,” said Marcus. “And by the way, we’re not talking about tweaks here but rather quantum changes to our speed tiers. We’ll also replace standard definition and older HD set-top boxes and roll out new DVRs, better user interfaces and more advanced versions of our TWC TV apps to fundamentally improve the video experience.”

If the competition is DSL, you may have a really long wait to be considered a TWC Max city.

Marcus added that in some mixed business/residential areas, fiber to the home service is increasingly possible because of declining costs and pre-existing fiber infrastructure already serving commercial customers and cell towers.

But Marcus was quick to stress that his philosophy about upgrades is to provide them in focused markets, not share them with every city where Time Warner Cable provides service.

“The goal here is, really, to fundamentally change the customer experience in a given market, said Marcus. “So rather than spread our efforts like peanut butter throughout the footprint, I’m very anxious to deliver a complete experience.”

“That means not only going all-digital but also ensuring that we have state-of-the-art modems in every customer’s home, ensuring that they have the best video and that the overall experience is really optimal,” Marcus added.

“So we’re going to concentrate market by market rather than take individual components and run them through the entire footprint.”

So what are the chances your city will be designated a TWC Max target area?

After reviewing the transcript for this morning’s conference call,  Stop the Cap! has created this handy-dandy, simple to use guide:

• If your community has or was chosen for Google Fiber: A VIRTUAL CERTAINTY!
• If your community is served by Verizon FiOS or AT&T’s Next Generation U-verse: EXCELLENT
• If your community has a fiber to the home provider competing with Time Warner Cable: VERY GOOD
• If your community is served by copper-based DSL from the phone company with no prospect of getting U-verse or FiOS: WHEN PIGS FLY!

Comcast’s Wireless Gateway is part of the company’s plans to further monetize broadband.

Comcast wants investors to believe customers slightly prefer losing access to unlimited broadband in return for a 300GB usage cap and $10 overlimit fees.

Neil Smit, president and CEO of Comcast Cable Communications this morning told Wall Street analysts Comcast plans to further monetize its broadband product after testing usage caps, consumption billing, and collecting increased in-home Wi-Fi fees collected from a growing number of customers with an XFINITY Wireless Gateway.

Phil Cusick from JPMorgan asked Smit about how broadband tiering trials now underway primarily in southern states were going for Comcast.

“We have a number of trials in place in markets,” Smit responded. “We’re testing different types of usage-based pricing offerings. Thus far the consumer response has been neutral to slightly positive. We’ll continue to monitor it.”

Customers in the affected areas tell Stop the Cap! they have never been asked what they think about Comcast’s usage caps and consumption billing, so they are unsure how Smit can draw conclusions about customer preference.

“I’m canceling Nov. 1 when the caps arrive in South Carolina,” says Dennis Johnson. “I’m heading to U-verse because AT&T isn’t enforcing any caps here. I plan to tell Comcast why they lost me, but it sounds like the company really isn’t interested in what customers think.”

Every research study done on broadband usage caps show customers loathe them and up to 50% are prepared to switch providers if they can find a competitor providing comparable service.

Comcast is also moving forward with plans to share your in-home Wi-Fi with other customers, configuring company-supplied gateways to offer a second, open access Wi-Fi channel. Comcast currently charges customers $7 a month for the XFINITY Wireless Gateway, combining a DOCSIS 3 cable modem, a telephone eMTA, and a wireless router.

Despite the fact Comcast customers regularly complain about the poor Wi-Fi range of the XFINITY Wireless Gateway and the monthly rental fee, Smit believes they are key to further monetizing broadband.

“We’ve rolled out about six million Gateway devices which increased the in-home Wi-Fi fees and we think there’s going to be more people hanging more devices off of their Wi-Fi,” said Smit.

The more devices, the higher the usage. The higher the usage, the closer customers get to exceeding their cap and charged overlimit fees.

Powell

A former chairman of the Federal Communications Commission turned top cable lobbyist rang the warning bell at an industry convention this week, recommending America’s cable operators hurry out usage caps and usage-based billing before a perception takes hold the industry is trying to protect cable television revenue.

Michael Powell, the former head of the FCC during the Bush Administration is now America’s top cable industry lobbyist, serving as president and CEO of the National Cable & Telecommunications Association (NCTA). From 2001-2005 Powell claimed to represent the interests of the American people. From 2011 on, he represents the interests of Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox, and other large cable operators.

Attending the SCTE Cable-Tec Expo 2013 in Atlanta, Powell identified the cable industry’s top priority for next year: “broadband, broadband, and broadband.”

The NCTA fears the current unregulated “Wild West” nature of broadband service is ripe for regulatory checks and balances. The NCTA plans to prioritize lobbying to prevent the implementation of consumer protection regulations governing the Internet. Powell warned it would be “World War III” if the FCC moved to oversee broadband by changing its definition as an unregulated “information service” to a regulated common carrier utility.

Powell is very familiar with the FCC’s current definition because he presided over the agency when it contemplated the current framework as it applies to DSL and cable broadband providers.

While Powell has a long record opposing blatant Net Neutrality violations that block competing websites and services, he does not want the FCC meddling in how providers charge or provision access.

Powell believes some of cable’s biggest problems come from bad marketing.

Powell disagreed with statements from some Wall Street analysts like Craig Moffett who earlier predicted the window for broadband usage-based limits and fees was closing or closed already.

Powell does not care that consumers are accustomed to and overwhelmingly support unlimited access. Instead, he urged cable executives to “move with some urgency and purpose” to implement usage-based billing for economic reasons, despite the growing perception such limits are designed to protect cable television service from online competition.

“I don’t think it’s too late,” Powell said. “But it’s not something you can wait for forever.”

Powell pointed to the success wireless carriers have had forcing the majority of customers to usage capped, consumption billing plans and believes the cable industry can do the same.

The NCTA president also described many of the industry’s hurdles as marketing and perception problems.

The cable industry, long bottom-rated by consumers in satisfaction surveys, can do better according to Powell, by making sure they are nimble enough to meet competition head-on.

Powell described Google Fiber as a limited experiment unlikely to directly compete with cable over the long-term, and with a new version of the DOCSIS cable broadband platform on the way, operators will be able to compete with speeds of 500-1,000Mbps and beyond. He just hates that it’s called DOCSIS 3.1, noting it wasn’t “consumer-friendly” in “a 4G and 5G world.”

Kevin Hart, executive vice president and chief technology officer of Cox Communications joked the marketing department would get right on it.

Cox Communications today officially unveiled broadband speed increases along with free cloud storage without adjusting data plan usage allowances for customers who take advantage of the service enhancements.

“Our customers tell us that their overall online experience is becoming increasingly important to them,” said Betty Jo Roberts, vice president of marketing for Cox Virginia. “Speed, access, safety and storage are key components of their communications and entertainment needs. Free cloud storage presents an especially significant value, as most similar services are fee-based.”

*A DOCSIS 3 modem is required to consistently receive optimal speeds for Preferred and higher tiers.

Using cloud storage regularly and taking the new speeds for a hard run could drive customers perilously close to their monthly usage allowance. Cox Ultimate customers get unlimited cloud storage but not unlimited broadband usage. While Cox does not currently charge any overlimit fees, the company does reserve the right to request heavy users upgrade to a plan with a higher allowance, reduce usage, or face account termination.

Although Cox touted the speed upgrades as coming at no charge, the cable company is busy hiking rates for certain broadband tiers. Customers report the popular Premier tier has increased from $55.99 to $62.99 in some markets and as high as $73.99 in Phoenix.