A billionaire who invested enormous sums to purchase airwaves for a new national wireless broadband network learned Tuesday ruled he cannot use them to launch LightSquared.

The Federal Communications Commission said yesterday Philip Falcone’s vision for competitive wireless service cannot go forward on the frequencies he acquired because tests show they create significant interference to other nearby spectrum users, especially GPS.

Falcone’s hedge fund poured nearly $3 billion into LightSquared, which the company still claims would not create significant problems for GPS users including aircraft, cars, and ships.

Falcone

But when tests were conducted in early 2011, significant interference problems were reported, some that could jeopardize the safety of American air travel.  The FCC decided it preferred to be safe instead of sorry.

The announcement by the FCC calls into question the future of the company and the value of its airwave assets, which are now likely worth a fraction of the price paid.

The company’s agreements with at least 30 wholesale customers are also at risk, and one of its largest partners, Sprint-Nextel, has spent the last few months distancing itself from the project, anticipating the decision the FCC announced yesterday.

The rejection has upset the FCC’s plans to increase wireless competition for AT&T and Verizon, which dominate American wireless.  The agency hoped the spectrum LightSquared obtained would open the doors to a new national player, but that appears unlikely for now.

LightSquared executives said in October they would sue the FCC in court if the agency blocked their network from operating.

The only new player on the horizon may be Dish Network, which earlier acquired wireless spectrum from two bankrupt companies, and now seeks to use them as mobile phone spectrum.  Separately, Clearwire is working with Sprint to construct a new national 4G network, while still operating Clear’s existing WiMAX 4G service.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC LightSquared Faces Prohibition Following Interference Report 2-14-12.flv[/flv]

CNBC discusses LightSquared’s new troubles and where the company can go from here.  (3 minutes)

A “disruptive market force” in France’s mobile phone market has turned an expectation of fat, easy, and fast profits on its head as companies scramble to slash prices to meet the challenge of a new player in town.

That “disruptor” is Free Mobile, owned by French broadband service provider Iliad.  In December, Iliad’s Xavier Niel delivered an early warning shot to other cell phone providers in France:

“Start cutting your prices! We are coming. Go away this weekend, rethink your marketing strategy and that way you might have a chance to continue existing.”

Evidently they were not listening, or did not believe Niel.

In January, Free Mobile arrived with prices shocking to a French market used to paying much more.

For $26.50, Free Mobile delivers a plan with unlimited calling, messaging, 3GB of mobile data and free international calls to 40 countries in North America and Europe.

The nearest comparable plan, Orange France’s “Sosh,” charges more than $66 for a similar range of features.  That’s more than double the price.

“Up until now you have been cash cows,” Niel said during a press conference introducing the service. “Now you can either call your current operator and ask for the same price or join us.”

The French people are doing both. Panicking operators that have lived happily on fat profit margins made possible by a generally uncompetitive marketplace were shocked out of their complacency and have begun lowering their own prices as customers threaten to leave for Free Mobile.

La Poste Mobile for example, which has about 550,000 customers, announced three new plans that start at prices comparable to Free Mobile, but include a subsidized phone — something Free Mobile does not offer.  Instead, Free Mobile splits any upfront equipment costs into installments which run the length of the contract, up to 24 months.

Other companies are turning to their marketing departments to solve the problem, resulting in some wild marketing claims that play fast and loose with the facts. Curious about Clientverge? Learn all about them here. French consumer group UFC-Que Choisir has heavily criticized a handful of providers that claim to provide unlimited calling and texting but then limit call time to 200 hours per month in the fine print.

Free Mobile’s offer has resonated across France and at least 1,000,000 people signed up in January, overwhelming the country’s number portability system allowing customers to change providers and keep their current phone number.  The overwhelming majority of Free Mobile’s customers come from other carriers.  Sixteen per cent switched from Bouygues Telecom, 22 per cent from SFR and 30 per cent from Orange France, with most of the rest switching from resellers who lease airtime from the three largest providers in France.

Financial analysts opine that if Free Mobile is here to stay, it will have a major impact on the French mobile marketplace, first on resellers that offer service delivered over other companies’ networks.  French unions fear their workers will pay the price as providers protect investments and management perks.

CGT, SUD and the CFE-CGC suggest wage and job cuts for workers will come as companies look for savings to offset their profit losses.  One report predicted as many as 10,000 job cuts in the mobile industry in the future.

Ironically, while Iliad, a French broadband provider, has challenged the French mobile market and has brought price savings to consumers, American cable companies capitulated on competition, selling their wireless spectrum to the country’s largest wireless company, Verizon Wireless.  Additionally, American cable and phone companies have agreed to market their products together in bundle offers, potentially eliminating any serious competition between them.

McDowell

Republican FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell is questioning whether Comcast misled the federal agency when the cable company acquired wireless spectrum it now says it had no intention of ever using.

McDowell was reacting to Comcast chief financial officer Michael Angelakis, who admitted this week his company really never had any interest in competing in the wireless space.

“Were they purchased under false pretenses?” McDowell asked.

Comcast has since sold their acquired spectrum to Verizon Wireless, which in Angelakis’ view makes sense.

“We never really intended to build that spectrum, so therefore it’s a really good use of that spectrum,” Angelakis said.

That admission puts Comcast in a difficult position, because FCC rules mandate that companies acquiring scarce wireless spectrum make a good faith effort to use it.  In McDowell’s view, had Comcast never intended to put the frequencies to use, the FCC probably would have disallowed the acquisition.

Verizon Wireless also plans to pick up unused spectrum originally acquired by Time Warner Cable in a deal that would let both companies cross-promote cable and wireless products and avoid head-on competition.

Both Comcast and Time Warner Cable have warehoused unused spectrum for several years.  Neither company appeared serious about building competing wireless networks, and with the spectrum off the market, would-be competitors couldn’t launch service either.

Verizon agreed to pay $3.6 billion to acquire the cable industry-owned spectrum, which it intends to use to bolster its LTE 4G network.

The FCC is now seeking public input on whether it should approve the spectrum sale. The Justice Department is also considering its antitrust implications.

Ebenezer Scrooge could successfully serve as the CEO of any large telecommunications company these days, and the New York Times knows a Christmas tale of woe when it sees one.  That is why the venerable newspaper printed a Christmas Eve editorial blasting Verizon’s new “non-aggression treaty” with America’s largest cable companies that puts coal in the stocking for any Verizon customer waiting for FiOS fiber-to-the-home service.  The newspaper believes the days of FiOS are numbered:

Verizon — Verizon Wireless’s main shareholder — relieved itself of the need to expand FiOS, its high-speed, fiber optic network, beyond the 18 million homes it set out to reach six years ago, a rollout that cost $23 billion. For the other 114 million homes in the country, it can simply bundle its wireless service with the cable and wireline broadband services of its partners. The agreement between Verizon and the cable carriers includes a joint venture to develop technology to integrate the wireline and wireless platforms.

Verizon’s cable deals squashed hopes that cable carriers’ purchases of wireless spectrum would lead to more competition against the dominant players, AT&T and Verizon Wireless. And it puts in doubt whether FiOS will ever be a serious competitor to cable, reducing the likelihood that video transmitted over broadband could break up cable’s regional oligopolies.

[…] Verizon’s deals suggest a future in which cable carriers will get uncontested control of high-speed broadband into the home while AT&T and Verizon will get uncontested control over wireless. For consumers with expensive wireless plans, pricey bundles of cable channels and costly, slow broadband, this does not look like good news.

Verizon’s economic future lies in the lucrative world of wireless.  Its FiOS network was an expensive gamble to reinvent its antiquated telephone network to drive customers to keep their landlines and spent a hundred dollars more on video entertainment and super fast broadband.  Wall Street hated the price and loathed the potential for costly competition that would force earnings down through aggressive price-cutting.  In some markets, Verizon FiOS has forced Comcast, Cablevision, and Time Warner Cable to be a little more generous with broadband speed and lighten up a little on the annual rate increases.

But convincing cable customers to switch remains a difficult proposition even when Verizon offers the superior service.  Verizon has not achieved the level of penetration it expected in many markets.  In short, people just don’t want to wait around for installers.  Besides, cable companies slash prices for customers threatening to depart.

Verizon’s deal with Time Warner and Comcast delivers Verizon Wireless desirable spectrum.  But the agreement to cross-market and cross-bundle product lines smacks of collusion, and is exactly the kind of turf protection that has kept cable companies from competing head-to-head with each other for more than three decades.  Is it more lucrative for Verizon to build out its FiOS network to compete or simply refer people to Time Warner or Cablevision for cable TV.  So long as cable doesn’t offer a competing wireless product, Verizon seems to think there is little harm done.

But for consumers, the absence of competition brings rate increases, reduced innovation, and declining customer service.

The one thing the telecom marketplace needs less of is the “take it or leave it” attitude that earned the scorn of cable customers everywhere.

FAIL

AT&T announced Monday it has officially dropped its bid for Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile USA.

The company blamed regulator opposition for the failure of the merger, underestimating the Obama Administration’s tolerance for super-sized acquisition deals that could reduce competition and raise prices for consumers.

The real challenge for AT&T initially came not from the Federal Communications Commission, but from the U.S. Department of Justice which filed suit against the merger in August. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski soon followed with statements that suggested the merger would have a difficult time at the Commission as well, and after a scathing report from FCC staffers was made public, Wall Street began to reduce the chances of the merger getting through to the single digits.

Had AT&T successfully merged with fourth-place T-Mobile, it would have easily become the nation’s largest and most powerful wireless provider, advancing beyond current leader Verizon Wireless.

The failure for AT&T will cost the company at least $4 billion in cash and spectrum it earlier agreed to give T-Mobile if the merger failed to complete.  Industry analysts say the real winner this year will easily be Verizon Wireless, which successfully accomplished its own spectrum acquisition by quietly buying unused spectrum from some of the nation’s largest cable companies.  With that spectrum now under Verizon’s control, AT&T has been reduced to signing new roaming agreements with an independent T-Mobile to share their GSM technology networks.  That will do little to alleviate AT&T’s dropped call problem in large cities, analysts say, because most roaming agreements specify sharing network resources only in areas where one carrier does not provide service.

Where U.S. Cell Phone Companies Stand Today

AT&T: AT&T still retains a considerable amount of unused wireless spectrum, but some of it is located on frequency bands that provide a lower quality of service indoors.  AT&T may have a difficult time finding new spectrum, because other carriers have signed partnership deals with most of the companies still holding unused frequencies. One of the largest holders of unused, warehoused spectrum is DISH Networks, and they’ve indicated no interest in selling.  DISH may partner with T-Mobile now that AT&T has exited.  That leaves AT&T with lobbying the government to speed up new spectrum auctions and working internally to expand their cell tower network to divide the traffic load.  It’s an expensive proposition, and several Wall Street analysts are advising their clients to dump AT&T stock.  Kevin Smithen, a Macquarie Capital USA Inc. analyst who downgraded AT&T to “sell” from “hold” last week advised AT&T was running out of options.

Verizon Wireless: Big Red remains in excellent shape to maintain its current market leadership position, particularly as it uses recently-acquired spectrum to bolster its 4G LTE network.  A UBS analyst was more direct: It will have 56 percent more 4G spectrum than AT&T in the top 10 markets and 46 percent more in the top 100, giving it a “meaningful competitive advantage.” Verizon has also cut a deal with cable operators that could reduce competitive pressure on Verizon’s landline/FiOS network from cable companies.  That fringe benefit comes courtesy of an agreement to market each others’ products to consumers.

Sprint: In addition to building its own 4G network, the company still has an agreement with Clearwire that allows Sprint to purchase the former company’s spectrum if it ever becomes available for sale.  With T-Mobile still obviously up for sale, Sprint could attempt its own merger, although it may be wary of stirring the same regulatory pot that got AT&T into trouble.  That leaves T-Mobile’s next buyer likely to be a regional cell phone company, a foreign firm entering the U.S. market, or an existing telecommunications company that decides a wireless division would be of benefit.

Extended Video Coverage

News of AT&T/T-Mobile Merger Failure Breaks

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/AP T-Mobile Merger Dead 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

This report from the Associated Press informs consumers of the basics — the merger is no-go, leaving AT&T and T-Mobile as competitors, at least for now.  (1 minute)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg ATT Pulls T-Mobile Bid After Regulator Opposition 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

AT&T Inc. abandoned a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA after underestimating opposition from regulators, thwarting its ambitions to become the biggest U.S. wireless carrier. AT&T will take a pretax charge of $4 billion to reflect cash payments and other considerations due to T-Mobile-owner Deutsche Telekom AG, the Dallas-based company said in a statement today. Peter Cook, Lisa Murphy, Adam Johnson and Sheila Dharmarajan report on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (7 minutes)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Blair Says ATT’s T-Mobile Bid Was All About Spectrum 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

Brian Blair, an analyst at Wedge Partners Corp., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA and Apple Inc.’s victory in a final patent-infringement ruling that bans some HTC Corp. smartphones from the U.S. Blair speaks with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.”  (11 minutes)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Baird on ATT T-Mobile Failure 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Apologists for AT&T on CNBC wring their hands over how wireless networks will get built out into rural areas now that the T-Mobile deal is dead. Will Power, R.W. Baird & Co, weighs in with a host who clearly cheerleads AT&T’s world-view.  (5 minutes)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC ATT Drops Bid for T-Mobile 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

AT&T drops its $39 billion bid for T-Mobile USA, with Todd Rethemeier, Hudson Square Research.  AT&T’s talking points don’t fly with Rethemeier.  (4 minutes)

T-Mobile’s CEO Speaks About the Merger Failure

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Deutsche Telekom CEO on Failed T-Mobile Merger 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Rene Obermann, Deutsche Telekom CEO, explains why the merger between AT&T and T-Mobile USA should have gone through. “This transaction would have solved a number of industry issues,” he says.  Obermann is in friendly territory on CNBC.  (8 minutes)

The Impact on Sprint

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Horan Sees T-Mobile Eventually Merging With Sprint 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

Tim Horan, an analyst with Oppenheimer & Co., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA, thwarting its ambitions to become the biggest U.S. wireless carrier. Horan speaks with Adam Johnson and Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (3 minutes)

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Gamcos Haverty Says Sprint an Endangered Species 12-19-11.flv[/flv]

Larry Haverty, portfolio manager at Gamco Investors Inc., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA, and the outlook for Sprint Nextel Corp. and the wireless industry. Haverty speaks with Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.” (6 minutes)

 Will DISH Network Be AT&T’s Next Acquisition Target?

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Trading on ATT’s Failed T-Mobile Bid 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Shares of Dish Network up 9% in the aftermath of AT&T’s failed bid to acquire T-Mobile. Michael McCormack, Nomura telecom analyst, weighs in on whether Dish is the next target for AT&T.  (2 minutes)