Oregon's telephone company service areas

Frontier Communications has won approval to assume control of telephone lines serving 310,000 Oregonians.

The Oregon Public Utilities Commission Friday unanimously approved the transfer of service from Verizon to Frontier as part of a 14-state transaction.

“First and foremost we want to ensure that customers are not harmed by this transaction.  That’s why we are requiring more than 50 conditions, all aimed at making sure customers are not harmed by this sale,” Chairman Lee Beyer said. “In addition, we are requiring Frontier Communications to spend $25 million on expanding high-speed internet access to its Oregon customers by July 2013.”

In return for approval, Frontier agreed to PUC demands for customer service protections:

• A commitment that Frontier spend at least $25 million to expand high-speed broadband in Oregon by July 2013;
• No changes in “commission-regulated” retail service plans for at least three years;
• Costs of the transition must not be paid by customers in the form of rate increases;
• 90-day window to change long distance carrier without any fees;
• An independent audit, paid for by Verizon, to ensure Frontier can handle service for those customers affected by the deal;
• An opt-out provision letting Oregon’s FiOS subscribers terminate their contracts without penalty if Frontier reduces Internet speeds or drops any of its television channels.

What is missing from Oregon’s agreement?

• A prohibition of Internet Overcharging schemes like Frontier’s 5 gigabyte “acceptable use” policy that potentially limits customer’s broadband use.  Expanded broadband that customers can only use for basic web browsing and e-mail, without fear of exceeding the limit, indefinitely punishes rural Oregonians with no broadband alternatives;
• A specific definition of what constitutes “broadband” speeds.  Frontier can continue to deliver the 1-3 Mbps it routinely provides to its less urban service areas.  While better than nothing, Oregon regulators could have used the deal as leverage to win 21st century broadband speeds from Frontier, not yesterday’s ‘barely broadband;’
• Fines and penalties that will punish a provider that does not invest appropriately in high service standards to provide quality service, and a trigger to permit automatic cancellation of operating certificates should Frontier go bankrupt.

Too many of these deals offer upsides for Wall Street and little benefit to consumers, especially those dependent on their landline phone company for basic communications services.  By forcing requirements that prove costly for a provider to renege on, investors will understand their gains will only happen when they are assured Frontier is doing right by their customers, as well as their shareholders.

Oregon is the sixth state to approve the sale.

Frontier currently serves only 12,000 customers in the state, mostly in southwest Oregon, including the communities of Azalea, Canyonville, Cave Junction, Days Creek, Glendale, Myrtle Creek, O’Brien, Riddle, Selma, and Wolf Creek.

The company’s new customers will come mostly from Washington County, east Multnomah County, and from several pockets of customers in the northwestern part of the state.  Oregon’s largest telephone provider is Qwest Communications, but the state has numerous smaller independent providers as well.

Verizon Communications has made its intentions clear — would-be broadband customers in its service area who are off the FiOS footprint can pound salt.  The Federal Communications Commission issues regular reports on broadband services and their adoption by consumers across the United States.  In the latest report, published this month, customers in Verizon’s current or former service areas who are not being served by Verizon FiOS are behind the broadband 8-ball, waiting for the arrival of DSL service from a company that has diverted most of its time, money, and attention on deploying its fiber-to-the-home service for the big city folks.

One might think the worst DSL availability in the country would be in rural states like Alaska, or territories like Guam, or income-challenged Mississippi.  No, the bottom of the barrel can be found in northern New England and the mid-Atlantic states — largely the current or former domain of Verizon:

Percentage of Residential End-User Premises with Access to High-Speed Services by State
(Connections over 200 kbps in at least one direction)

Source: FCC High-Speed Services for Internet Access: Table 19

Some might argue that DSL penetration ignores Verizon’s fiber upgrades, but does it?

Providers of High-Speed Connections by Fiber by State as of December 31, 2008
(Connections over 200 kbps in at least one direction)

Source: FCC High-Speed Services for Internet Access: Table 20

A survey of the rest of the country calls out Verizon’s inattentiveness to DSL expansion in its remaining service areas not covered by FiOS.

For example: Alabama, Idaho, Montana, and Oklahoma all enjoy 80 percent DSL availability.  Utah and Nevada achieved 90 percent coverage.  Even mountainous Wyoming, the least populous state in the country, provides 78 percent of its state’s customers with the choice of getting DSL service.  Yet New York manages only one point higher among its telephone companies, largely because of enormous service gaps upstate.

What happened?  By 2002 Verizon began to realize their future depended on moving beyond providing landline service.  The company began to divert most of its resources to a grand plan to deliver fiber connections to residences in larger markets in its service areas.  While great news for those who live there, those that don’t discovered they’ve been left behind by Verizon.  Northern New England got flushed by Verizon altogether — sold to the revenue-challenged FairPoint Communications who assumed control of Verizon’s problems and managed to make them worse.

The argument that rural broadband is “too expensive” doesn’t fly when looking at DSL availability in the expansive mountain west or rural desert regions.  Compact states like Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maryland are far easier to wire than North Dakota, New Mexico or even Texas with its large rural areas (87, 87, and 81 percent coverage, respectively).  Verizon simply doesn’t realize the kind of Return on Investment it seeks from FiOS customers — a dollar amount investors want to see.

Of course, that’s the argument Frontier Communications, and FairPoint behind it, made to regulators in sweeping promises to deliver better broadband service.  FairPoint missed its targets and declared bankruptcy.  Frontier is still in the “promises, promises” stage of its deal to take over millions of rural customers currently served by Verizon.

Frontier's headquarters in Rochester, N.Y.

Frontier Communications has dismissed the proposition of Google constructing a 1Gbps fiber-to-the-home network, telling readers of the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle that most users don’t need ultra-fast Internet access.

Ann Burr, chairman and general manager of Frontier Communications of Rochester made the remark in response to news that citizens and business leaders are excited about promoting Monroe County as a potential test location for Google’s fiber network experiment.

Frontier, which serves Rochester and most of the 585 area code, accused Google of having “a poor track record of following through on such proposals and that creating a fiber-optic network from scratch would be enormously expensive.”

Pot to kettle.  Frontier’s illusory promises for fiber optic connectivity in states like West Virginia, where it seeks to take over the majority of the state’s phone customers from Verizon, never seem to include specific assurances such projects will reach customer homes.

“If Google built its own network, we estimate it would cost $5,000 per household,” Burr told the newspaper.

That’s as exaggerated as Frontier’s DSL speed claims.

Verizon Communications, which is in the business of providing fiber connectivity to the home, disclosed the true costs are far lower than that, and continue to decline.  In the summer of 2008, Verizon’s Policy Blog noted:

Capital Costs
– We said our target per home passed was $700 by 2010, and we are ahead of plan to achieve that objective. In fact, we’ve already beaten the target.
– We said our target per home connected was $650 by 2010, and we’re on plan to hit that target.

No wonder Frontier doesn’t contemplate providing fiber service to customers.  It created its own sticker shock.

Still, the local phone company didn’t want to slam the door entirely on Google’s foot, suggesting it would be willing to talk about leasing space on Google’s network if it launched in the Flower City.

Frontier’s claim that customers don’t believe fast broadband service is important is a remarkable admission, particularly for a company that increasingly depends on broadband service to stop revenue loss from customers dropping traditional phone lines.  That philosophy should be carefully considered by state officials and utility commissions reviewing Frontier’s proposal to take over Verizon phone lines in several states.  Do communities want to receive broadband from a company that dismisses faster broadband speed as irrelevant for the majority of its customers?

Perhaps the remarks came with the understanding Frontier isn’t capable of delivering 21st century broadband speeds over its antique network of copper telephone wire anyway.

That’s the point Time Warner Cable has made repeatedly, especially in the Rochester metro area.  The cable operator routinely promotes its Road Runner cable modem service’s speed advantages over Frontier’s DSL product.  Frontier promises up to 10Mbps, but often manages far less (3.1Mbps was my personal experience with Frontier DSL last April.)  Time Warner Cable promises up to 15Mbps, and often exceeds that with its “PowerBoost” feature.  In rural areas, the phone company tops out at “up to 3Mbps.”  Time Warner Cable notes most of its new broadband customers come at the expense of phone companies like Frontier.  DSL customers switch because they do care about broadband speed.

Judging from the excitement in Rochester over Google’s proposal, Frontier’s dismissal of a fiber optic future seems out of touch, and potentially a drag on the local community’s economic future.

Rochester increasingly will become a broadband backwater because of anemic broadband competition from Frontier Communications.  Its reliance on ADSL technology, more than a decade old, to deliver distance-sensitive broadband service looks out of place compared with the rest of New York State.  Major cities throughout New York are being wired with fiber optic service by Verizon Communications.  Verizon FiOS delivers up to 50Mbps service.  Frontier maxes out at far lower speeds and defines an acceptable amount of broadband usage on its DSL service at just 5GB per month. Using Verizon’s FiOS fiber network, you’d exceed Frontier’s entire month’s ‘allowance’ in less than 15 minutes at Verizon’s speeds.

Rochester is one of many communities challenged by the transition away from a manufacturing economy towards a high technology future.  A world class fiber optic network doesn’t just benefit big business.  It spurs revolutionary growth in medicine, education, software development, telecommunications, and more.  That means good paying jobs.  For consumers with fiber to the home, it opens the door to telecommuting on a whole new level, distance learning opportunities, new ways to access information and entertainment, and allows home-based entrepreneurs to develop new businesses.

With Verizon FiOS unavailable to Rochester indefinitely, and Frontier unwilling to make appropriate investments to keep this city competitive with the rest of upstate New York, those jobs and economic benefits can go to Buffalo, Syracuse, Albany, Westchester County, and metropolitan New York City.  We’ll be held back on the frontier with Frontier and its ideas of rationed broadband service.

[flv width=”360″ height=”260″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WROC Ontario County Makes Bid for Super Fast Internet 2-11-2010.flv[/flv]

WROC-TV in Rochester reports that Ontario County, to the southeast of Rochester, may have a built-in advantage with an already-installed fiber loop covering much of the county.  The county has a team working on a formal application to Google to provide service in communities like Geneva and Canandaigua.  Frontier’s claims that consumers don’t care about fast broadband speed are belied by the excitement of residents of both counties. (2 minutes)

Ohio utility regulators today approved the transfer of telephone service from Verizon North to Frontier Communications with some conditions attached.  The transition will make Frontier Communications the state’s second largest telephone company behind AT&T.

Regulators negotiated conditions with Frontier officials that requires the company to:

• deploy broadband facilities in 85 percent of Verizon’s current Ohio service area by the end of 2013;
• freeze basic local telephone rates in Frontier’s service territory at current levels until broadband deployment reaches 85 percent;
• invest in service upgrades in each of the next three years amounting to $50 million in infrastructure improvements;
• agree to track and report service outages and how Frontier responds to them.

The company has committed to keep on nearly 1,000 Verizon North employees in Ohio.  Opponents expressed concern that pressure to cut costs post-merger would have come at the expense of employees.

Frontier's current service area in Ohio is a tiny portion of Williams County, serving just 480 residents from an office in Michigan (click to see a color map of the service area)

Ohio residents are largely unfamiliar with Frontier Communications.  Prior to the merger, just 480 residents in a tiny portion of Williams County in northwest Ohio had Frontier telephone service, served by Frontier Communications of Michigan’s office in Osseo, Michigan.

Right now, residents of Billingstown, Cooney, Northwest, and Nettle Lake, Ohio might qualify for Frontier High-Speed Internet Max, advertising “breakthrough speeds at an unbeatable price.”  That is “up to 3Mbps” service starting at $49.99 a month.

Those members of Frontier’s family of customers will now be joined by 435,000 Verizon residential customers in 77 of Ohio’s 88 counties.

The largest portion of Frontier’s new service area will include parts of Champaign, Clark, Clinton, Darke, Miami, Montgomery, Preble, Shelby and Warren counties.

Despite early opposition from Ohio Consumers’ Counsel (OCC), who expressed concerns about the financial viability of the deal and the fulfillment of promised broadband expansion, the vote by the Public Utilities Commission (PUC) was unanimous.  After negotiations with company officials and the OCC and PUC, an agreement to attach conditions to the sale of Verizon’s landlines resulted in a change of heart by the Counsel’s office.

Frontier's new service area, representing territory formerly served by Verizon North (click to enlarge)

Many of Ohio’s former Verizon service areas are served by Verizon”s DSL service, but many rural communities went unserved.  Verizon has made a business decision to direct resources into its fiber to the home service — FiOS, which is only being provided in substantial-sized communities.  With Verizon’s reduction in resources towards rural service areas, Frontier argues the sale will benefit rural residents because they will provide broadband service Verizon never did.  Frontier suggests the viability of its landline business is enhanced by robust broadband deployment as consumers continue to drop traditional phone service.  Broadband gives customers a reason to stay with Frontier, the company believes.

But critics contend Frontier’s broadband is behind-the-times, often providing less than 3Mbps service in many smaller communities.  Frontier also maintains language in its Acceptable Use Policy that expects consumers to limit their broadband use to just 5GB per month, although company officials stress they do not enforce that provision at this time.

Frontier believes broadband deployment will help the company survive the trend away from landline phone service

Frontier relies on traditional, basic ADSL service across its service areas nationwide, but also provides provides some communities with Wi-Fi access for an additional monthly charge.

Similar earlier deals between Verizon and FairPoint Communications, the Carlyle Group, and Verizon’s former telephone directory printing operation (now Idearc Media) have all ended in bankruptcy after months of sub-standard service, billing errors, and broken promises.  Should a similar fate befall Frontier Communications, a trip to Bankruptcy Court could put an end to broadband, pricing, and service commitments made with state officials.

Early reaction and declarations of a price war notwithstanding, yesterday’s “price cuts” from Verizon Wireless and AT&T Mobility on their unlimited calling plans may bring price increases for many customers who don’t need all of the components of the wireless industry’s Cadillac plans.

First, an explanation of what has changed.

Verizon started the ball rolling announcing a $30 price cut on their Nationwide Unlimited Talk plan.  Formerly $99.99, customers now pay $69.99.  For those with multiple phones on a single account, Verizon’s Nationwide Unlimited Talk Family SharePlan, which includes two lines, now drops to $119.99.  AT&T immediately matched Verizon’s new pricing.  AT&T’s Nation Unlimited plan is now also $69.99 and their shared line plan, FamilyTalk Nation Unlimited is $119.99 and also includes two lines.

Customers currently paying more for a wireless plan with either carrier have to call customer service at either carrier to switch to these plans.  You won’t incur a service charge or extend your existing contract.

Verizon’s plans with unlimited calling and texting features have also dropped in price.  Verizon’s Talk and Text plan costs $89.99 per month, down from $119.99. The Nationwide Unlimited Talk & Text Family SharePlan is now $149.99 per month.  AT&T customers can add unlimited texting to an existing plan, and the rates for doing so remain unchanged — $20 for single phone accounts, $30 for family plan accounts.

However… Here comes the tricks, traps, and gotchas.

For big families with multiple phones, these unlimited plans bring a nasty surprise  — the additional charge for each third, fourth, and fifth line is $49.99 per month for each phone, not the traditional $9.99 each for those on plans with minute allowances.

Those who receive employer-related discounts from the wireless carriers may find those discounts do not apply to the Unlimited talk plans.  Verizon declares all of their unlimited plans are not eligible for any monthly access discounts, period.

AT&T goes out of its way to define what they believe a “voice call” means:

Unlimited voice services are provided primarily for live dialogue between two individuals. If your use of unlimited voice services for conference calling or call forwarding exceeds 750 minutes per month, AT&T may, at its option, terminate your service or change your plan to one with no unlimited usage components. Unlimited voice services may not be used for monitoring services, data transmissions, transmission of broadcasts, transmission of recorded material, or other connections which do not consist of uninterrupted live dialogue between two individuals.

Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless may try and up-sell you on the new data plans when you call to change your plan.  Customers calling both carriers have reported customer service representatives only too willing to provide steep discounts for new handsets or try and convince you to add one of the company’s new data plans.  Take advantage of their offer to upgrade your phone and you’ll likely discover yourself forced to also take a mandatory data plan with it anyway.  The list of phones falling under this trap keeps expanding.

Last year, Verizon started requiring customers choose data plans for the LG EnV Touch and the Samsung Rogue.  With this week’s changes, customers activating LG Chocolate Touch, LG EnV, LG VX8360, Motorola Entice W766, Nokia 7705 Twist, and Samsung Alias2 are now also subject to required data plans.  Don’t expect Verizon Wireless representatives to sell you on their cheapest pay-per-use option, which is priced at $1.99 per megabyte.  I’ve witnessed Verizon Wireless’ store employees pushing Verizon’s new unlimited $29.99 data plan.  If customers complain that’s too much, the $9.99 data plan for a piddly 25MB of access is offered next.  If it looks like a balking customer might cost a sale, the representative will grudgingly sell you pay per use plans.

AT&T customers buying many midrange and “quick-messaging” phones are also going to be required to spend at least $20 a month on a combination of texting and/or data plans. Customers using phones like the LG Neon or the Samsung Propel are affected, and weren’t required to buy data plans before.  Unlimited data for quick-messaging devices is priced at $15 a month.

If you already own a top of the line phone, your data plan charges remain the same.  Verizon customers using Windows Mobile, BlackBerry or Android phones will still pay $29.99 a month for unlimited data.  AT&T customers using the iPhone, BlackBerry, Nokia smartphone or Windows Mobile phones will also pay $29.99 a month for unlimited data.

Customers using wireless broadband with a USB dongle are also unaffected by these changes.  Whether you tether or use the dongle, your usage is limited to 5GB per month.

Existing customers will not be forced to add a data plan until their contract is up for renewal or they upgrade their phones.

Do These Changes Save Customers Money?

For most, the answers is no.  In fact, these pricing changes guarantee higher bills for most customers down the road.

Only a tiny percentage of customers pay for unlimited calling plans because most calling-allowance plans provide generous usage ranges, free night/weekend calling, and often free calling for the most frequently called, or those who are also customers of your wireless carrier.  AT&T even rolls-over unused minutes from month-to-month.  Paying considerably more for an “unlimited” calling option makes little sense for customers not exceeding existing calling allowances.

Changes to calling plans and the features associated with them occur year to year, but many customers prefer to remain on legacy plans that may offer fewer minutes, but have far fewer revenue-enhancing tricks and traps.  Verizon customers hanging on to their America’s Choice II FamilyShare plan offered four years ago maintain 700 minutes of calling time between multiple phones, get free night and weekend calling, and can access data features on their phones that deduct from their airtime allowance instead of billing for data usage charges.  The price?  $60 a month for two lines.  The equivalent plan today is priced at $69.99 for the voice calling plan, plus a mandatory data plan for the increasing number of phone that require one.  Even for phones on a pay-per-use plan, any data access will incur a minimum charge of $1.99 per month.

Where the real money will be made is from overpriced data plans forced on customers whether they want them or not, especially for midrange phones.

Wireless consultant Chetan Sharma estimates fewer than 10 percent of these customers buy data plans.

“There’s a significant number of consumers out there who like the idea of a cutting-edge handset but not of paying for services,” Michael Nelson, founder at Nelson Alpha Research told Business Week.

Wall Street analysts know mandatory data plans will bring exceptional new revenue to both major providers, especially at current prices.

“We could see a move upwards rather than downwards [in revenue/earnings],” says Jennifer Fritzsche, an analyst at Wells Fargo Securities in Chicago, who recommends buying shares of AT&T and Verizon Communications.  “Any kind of voice pricing is very much a commodity,” Fritzsche tells Bloomberg News. “Data is the future.”

JPMorgan is celebrating the potential windfall for both companies and their stocks, estimating just two percent of customers will realize any savings from these pricing changes, while many more will see prices increase.

For Verizon Wireless, it’s party time.  Even though Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Chaplin estimates the carrier will sacrifice $540 million in voice revenue, they’re likely to gain $630 million in data plan sales. The costs of providing the service are likely to be minimal, considering most of the customers now forced to choose a plan are unlikely to use it much.

“Price War” or “War on Customers”

Still, some on Wall Street are unhappy with the prospects of any pricing changes that head downwards, especially if it sparks a price war.  Some have dumped their wireless stocks as a result of industry trends this year.  But what they may need to worry more about is the prospect of middle class customers switching from traditional postpaid two-year contract plans to prepaid services that offer light and medium mobile users better value with fewer tricks and traps.

As families face the prospect for $100+ monthly bills just for cell phone service, with mandatory data charges likely to add another $20-30 on top of that, will non-power-users stick with AT&T and Verizon for service?  Sprint and T Mobile argue they already offer better value for the hard-hit middle class, but prepaid mobile has garnered new respect for its simpler plans and easy-to-understand billing (and taxes and fees are typically included in the prepaid plan price.)

Formerly the domain of those willing to pay a steep per minute fee and buy top-up cards at convenience stores, today’s prepaid wireless plans often offer month-to-month service with familiar “minute bucket”-allowances or unlimited calling, and operate on Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, or T-Mobile’s nationwide networks.

A real price war has broken out in the prepaid wireless sector, with competitors offering unlimited calling plans as low as $40 a month.  Straight Talk, using Verizon Wireless’ network, goes even lower for a simple 1,000 minute/1,000 text/30MB web access plan for $30 a month.  The only downside is a very limited selection of phones.  Regional players like MetroPCS and Cricket offer comparable pricing for their unlimited plans, but their network coverage is a shadow of the larger players, roaming agreements notwithstanding.

As major carriers pile on extra fees for services many customers don’t want, many will find far better values in the prepaid phone marketplace.  Without the two-year contract common on major carriers, customers can switch providers at will, taking their phone number with them in most cases, if one provider doesn’t provide good service.  Best of all, they don’t have to pay for a cancellation fee or take services they don’t want or need just to satisfy AT&T and Verizon’s quest for cash.

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WIVB Buffalo Price War Between Cell Phone Providers 1-19-10.flv[/flv]

WIVB-TV in Buffalo appeared to be drinking the industry’s Kool-Aid about the benefits of new, ‘lower pricing,’ but towards the end even they admitted there are tricks and traps involved. (3 minutes)