Rogers Communications, Canada’s largest cable operator, told investors at an investment bank conference it intends to accelerate plans to monetize wireless and broadband data usage this year.

Anthony Staffieri, chief financial officer of Rogers Communications told attendees at Morgan Stanley’s Technology, Media & Telecom Conference that Rogers’ future revenue outlook was going to be data-centric.

“We think data, monetizing data, is going to be a key aspect of that, both on the wireless side, as well as on the cable side of things,” Staffieri said.

Staffieri

Key to Rogers is the development of data plans that maximize revenue potential by exploiting the customer’s discomfort with overlimit fees. Staffieri admits the company has plans that can cost the company revenue if customers downgrade to a usage bucket that brings them very close to their usage limit.

But most customers do not choose those “exact fit” data plans. They typically select more expensive, larger-bucket plans so they can rest easy knowing they will not get slapped with a overlimit fee.

“And so they’re coming into data plans that are probably more than they need,” Staffieri said. “But for most users, what they’re looking for is comfort in usage. And so what we found is there’s a preponderance to buy more than what you need. So there’s no surprise at the end of the month in terms of billing. And so it’s all about that comfort in usage that we’re focused on in the price plans.”

In wireless, Rogers is also counting on the explosive growth of usage that comes after introducing 4G LTE coverage.

“Simply on 3G to LTE, you see an immediate growth in data usage,” Staffieri said. “Same users, but if you were to look at the data set, it’s just within a defined period of time, they can just access more. And so for whatever reason, whatever they’re doing with it, it’s just driving more usage, more efficiency and they’re using it in the business context.”

Staffieri says Rogers is experiencing 30-50% increases in data usage year over year. Rogers introduced new wireless plans in the fall of 2012 that refocus customers on their anticipated data usage, with gradually more expensive wireless plans to match.

“That really gets the customer focused on choosing something that continues to drive data growth,” Staffieri noted.

Rogers Cable broadband customers have also faced data caps and consumption-oriented billing for years. Although Rogers competitively responded to a Bell offer introduced in January that includes unlimited use service for customers who want it, that option comes at an added cost — one that can be priced up or down according to marketplace conditions.

Rogers primary focus is on encouraging its cable broadband customers to move towards higher-speed, more expensive data plans.

MONETIZED: Rogers sells a 25/2Mbps broadband plan for $52 a month that includes only an 80GB monthly usage allowance. A $2/GB overlimit fee applies, up to a maximum of $100 per month. Taxes, a modem rental fee or purchase, a one-time activation fee of $14.95 and up to a $99.99 installation fee also apply.

“On the cable side, making sure we have the best Internet experience was the other piece of it,” Staffieri said. “We ended the year with 90% of our footprint able to get 150Mbps data speed ($122.99/mo with 250GB usage allowance). And so to the extent that we continue to lead on Internet, we think that’s going to be important ingredient for the top line [revenue] growth.”

On the wireless side, Rogers is following the lead of big providers in the United States and gradually shifting the cost of new smartphones away from itself and onto its customers by adjusting its subsidy program.

“As we see data [usage] pulling [revenue] growth, overall, that bodes well for a continuation of the subsidization,” Staffieri said. “For us, it’s really been about making sure that we give the customer choice. And so when we combine that with the introduction of the Flex Plan, which we did in 2012, what we’re seeing is more and more customers opting into new handsets. But more and more, it’s on the customer’s nickel as opposed to our nickel on the Flex Plan programs.”

Rogers Wireless’ Individual plans. Rogers’ customers have to pay extra for long distance calling — most plans only cover local calls. Data plans are stingier and more expensive than what most Americans pay, and steep overlimit fees up to $0.02 per megabyte ($20/GB) apply. Like in the United States, Rogers is moving to bundle unlimited calling and texting into more of their plans. What differentiates more plans today is how much data usage is included.

Staffieri admitted Bell is giving Rogers the most competitive headaches in Ontario because of their aggressively priced promotions.

“Certainly, [Bell’s Fibe IPTV] has been competitive for us. In the short-term, we continue to deal with what I would consider to be aggressive pricing in terms of acquisition and retention offers by our IPTV competitor,” said Staffieri. “We’ve always been competing with their satellite product and so that competition has always been there. But I would describe it as certainly having picked up and continuing to pick up. And it’s largely been through pricing offers as opposed to product.”

Staffieri says Rogers is competing with improved set-top equipment like the NextBox 2.0 — a whole-home DVR with an improved user interface. It also offers customers Anyplace TV, a TV Everywhere service that allows customers to watch the Rogers’ TV lineup on tablets inside the home.

The Toronto Maple Leafs, the National Hockey League’s most valuable sports franchise, is today 75% co-owned by Bell Canada Enterprises (BCE) and Rogers Communications.

As is the case in the United States, Canadian cable companies are also facing dramatically increasing programming costs, particularly for sports programming.

But to a greater degree than in the U.S., Canadian media conglomerates own and control a larger share of cable and broadcast networks, programming producers, would-be competitors like satellite television, and even sports teams and the networks that show their games.

That positions them to negotiate with themselves over content costs, because they own or control the sports franchise, the cable or broadcast network that televises their games, and the cable, satellite, or telephone provider through which most Canadians watch.

“We’ve tried to be disciplined on the extent that content price increases are there because consumers want it, then we want to make sure we’re disciplined in passing on that cost to the customer,” Staffieri said. “And so we strive to make sure that in the TV and video business our gross margins are consistent.”

“So if you were to look at how that’s played out over the last several quarters and several years, it’s been fairly consistent. And so that’s what we strive to do is to make sure that those programming costs ultimately are passed on to the consumer, which is ultimately driving up the cost through their demand.”

Follow the money to the real root of this argument.

After conclusive evidence that cable broadband upgrades have eliminated any congestion problems, the cable industry has finally admitted usage caps are not about “congestion relief,” but are, in their view, “about fairness.”

Reports of the Internet data exaflood, tsunami, brownouts, or even blackouts are highly exaggerated and always have been. But we knew that from the first day Stop the Cap! got started.

In the summer of 2008, Frontier Communications attempted to define a top limit on their residential DSL accounts at a staggeringly small 5GB per month. Time Warner Cable initially thought 40-60GB a month was more than fair when it tried to ram its own Internet Overcharging scheme down the throats of customers in New York, North Carolina, and Texas in April 2009. Comcast said using more than 250GB a month could create congestion problems on their network and be unfair to other customers. To this day, AT&T, one of the nation’s largest telecommunications companies, claims that anything more than 150GB on their DSL service or 250GB on U-verse could bring their entire network to its knees.

The Holy Grail of Wall Street economics for broadband is to monetize its usage, creating an endless money party for what is today a utility service. Millions have been spent lobbying anyone who will listen that usage caps and consumption billing were essential to promote investment, upgrades, and to expand broadband service into rural America. Since those arguments have been made, broadband rates have increased, investment has decreased on a per customer and often real basis, and the government is now trying to chip in public taxpayer dollars to get providers to wire areas that will never pass demanding return on investment formulas.

The second prong of selling this meme is the creation of an Internet boogeyman — the “data hog,” a largely fictional creature that supposedly cares only about consuming every possible bit of bandwidth and slowing your web browsing to a crawl. Shouldn’t he pay more, you are asked, at the same time these same companies continue to raise your rates and now attempt to limit your use of a service that should cost less.

This week, Michael Powell, former FCC chairman turned head of the nation’s largest cable lobby — the National Cable & Telecommunications Association, capitulated on the “congestion” myth to an audience at the Minority Media and Telecommunications Association.

Asked by MMTC president David Honig to weigh in on data caps, Powell said that while a lot of people had tried to label the cable industry’s interest in the issue as about congestion management. “That’s wrong,” he said. “Our principal purpose is how to fairly monetize a high fixed cost.”

He said bandwidth management was part of it, though a more serious issue with wireless.

But he pointed out that the cable industry had to spend a bunch of money on its network before the first customer was signed. So, for a business that requires “enormously high” fixed costs — digging up the streets, put the wires in — and operational expense, “it is a completely rational and acceptable process to figure out how to fairly allocate those costs among your consumers who are choosing the service and will pay you to recover those costs.”

When will Washington regulators and lawmakers stop drinking the Kool-Aid handed them by high-paid lobbyists?

But our readers know Powell’s arguments are based on nothing more than the same empty rhetoric that declared the Internet exaflood was at hand.

Cable broadband was introduced as an ancillary service in the late 1990s utilizing cable television infrastructure that was constructed and paid off years earlier. Introducing broadband required only incremental investment and that remains true to this day. Cable operators more than cover their costs with sky high prices for service delivering some operators as high as 95% gross margin on broadband. Capital investments have broadly declined for years as have the costs to deliver the service on a per customer basis.

Suddenlink president and CEO Jerry Kent admitted the days of expensive system upgrades were over and it was now time to rake in profits.

“I think one of the things people don’t realize [relates to] the question of capital intensity and having to keep spending to keep up with capacity,” Kent said. “Those days are basically over, and you are seeing significant free cash flow generated from the cable operators as our capital expenditures continue to come down.”

Powell’s arguments ironically may apply partly to Verizon’s FiOS fiber network, which requires the retirement of copper wire infrastructure around since Alexander Graham Bell, but even Verizon covered much of its costs winning permission to raise rates years earlier to cover fiber upgrades. Much of that money was diverted to their wireless business instead. Today, Verizon FiOS manages just fine with no usage limits at all.

In fact, the only argument about fairness that should be open for debate regards the current cost of broadband service in the United States when compared against operators’ enormous profit margins. The lack of competition has allowed providers to increase prices and introduce “creative pricing” that always guarantees protection for the incredibly high average revenue per customer already earned.

Too often, Washington regulators and lawmakers drink the Kool-Aid handed them by an industry with an incentive to distort the truth. That incentive is the billions at stake in this fight.

Powell has even shelved the notion of the Cheetos-eating data hog burning up the Internet in his parent’s basement and has elected to try class warfare instead, claiming the most capacity is used “by a high end elite subsidized by the rest.” The real high-end elite are the telecom company executives cleaning up overcharging customers for a service that has become a necessity. Arguing for usage caps as a way to offer “lower prices” for those who cannot afford the ridiculously high prices the industry charges today only creates a new digital divide – the have’s and the have only so much.

Either way, providers laugh all the way to the bank.

Time Warner Cable has a usage meter up for some customers.

New York City area residents browsing through the My Services section of the Time Warner Cable website had an unwelcome introduction to the company’s new Usage Meter, located under the My Internet tab.

Time Warner has been gradually rolling out the “activity tracker” to all of its service areas, ostensibly for its Internet discount plan Internet Essentials, which offers a $5 discount to customers who keep their monthly usage under 5GB per month.

Although the company insists customers will not lose access to unlimited service (but does not indicate what customers could eventually end up paying for it), the usage meter is not well-received, particularly by customers who found it completely inaccurate.

One customer reported their Time Warner meter showed 161MB of usage… in July, with no usage since.

A Fairview, N.J. Broadband Reports reader was even more concerned to discover the cable company counted 4GB of usage between Oct. 28 and Oct. 31. That was a remarkable feat, according to the customer, because his service was knocked out during that time by Hurricane Sandy. Perhaps the hurricane wanted to stream some old episodes of Jersey Shore to contemplate its “before and after” strategy.

Time Warner’s meter, like that of every other cable or phone company provider, is not subject to independent review or audit by a neutral third party or government oversight. Some companies claim to have third-party verification through outside companies, but critics contend those outside entities have a direct financial interest reporting results that are positive to the company that paid for the review.

Cohen

Comcast’s chief lobbyist stalled plans to unveil cheaper Internet service for the financially disadvantaged to use as bait to win regulator approval of its 2009 merger with NBC-Universal.

The Washington Post today reports David Cohen’s influence at the cable operator as its chief of lobbying has helped the cable company achieve its status as America’s largest cable operator and entertainment conglomerate.

Cohen has friends in high places thanks to his status as a Democratic Party money bundler. A self-styled “consigliere” to the Roberts family that controls the company, Cohen has overseen a transformation of Comcast from one cable operator among many into a high-powered force not to reckoned with in Washington or Silicon Valley.

Comcast’s growth into a mega-corporation with $58 billion in annual revenues came, in part, from dealmaking that won regulator approval in D.C. Maintaining good relations with those regulators is a Cohen specialty. It did not take the Post too long to find former FCC officials giving Cohen high praise:

• “Every meeting with David is incredibly substantive,” Eddie Lazarus, former chief of staff to the FCC told the newspaper. “He always comes with a willingness to find solutions.”
• “David loves politics, he loves government and he has incredible situational awareness — a 360-degree view of business,” said Blair Levin, a former senior adviser to FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski. “He’s just so good at what he does.”

Under Cohen’s leadership, Comcast has spent lavishly on its corporate lobbying and legal team. Today, 20 full time lobbyists work under Cohen’s direction, with dozens of others available on retainer. The company spent $8.3 million of its subscribers’ money solely on lobbying. The Post reports that makes Comcast the ninth biggest K Street spender, above Verizon.

The poor and disadvantaged had to wait for Comcast to seal the deal on their $30 billion acquisition of NBC-Universal before affordable Internet could become reality for them.

In 2009, Comcast insiders were hard at work on a discount program for the disadvantaged who could not afford Comcast’s regular prices for broadband service. But the program was stalled at the direction of Cohen, who wanted it to be a chip with regulators to win approval of its acquisition of NBC-Universal. The program, sure to be popular among advocates of the digitally disadvantaged, was a key part of approving the $30 billion deal.

“I held back because I knew it may be the type of voluntary commitment that would be attractive to the chairman [of the FCC],” Cohen said in a recent interview.

Regulators promoted Comcast’s “concession” to offer the discounted Internet service as a win for consumers as part of the final approval of the deal. In reality, Comcast was planning to offer the service anyway and finally introduced it in 2011 — two years after first being proposed inside the company.

That fact is a slight embarrassment to current FCC chairman Julius Genachowski, who has told audiences the discounted Internet program was partly to his credit.

“This particular program came from our reviewing of the Comcast NBC-U transaction,” Genachowski said in a speech. “Comcast embraced it as good for the country, as well as good for business. And I’m fine with that.”

Cohen defends Comcast’s lobbying expense as part of the company’s effort to combat scrutiny and challenges to its all-or-nothing video business model, denying customers access to a-la-carte programming.

Comcast’s scope has now grown so large, it has become a force few companies are willing to challenge, and those that try are quick to run into a blockade of Comcast lawyers, lobbyists, and carefully constructed contracts that protect the company’s bottom line from would-be competitors.

Deep pockets like Verizon, Apple, Netflix and Google have all tried… and failed to recast the cable television experience with on-demand programming, a-la-carte channels, and cord-cutting technology.

In response, Comcast has kept competitors tied down to the same cable packages that require subscribers to pay for everything, even if they seek only a few channels. Comcast leverages its broadband network with usage limits that effectively curtail cord-cutting among consumers looking to skip the TV package. Anyone seeking a place in today’s entertainment industry ends up dealing with Comcast sooner or later.

“They are hugely important because they can singlehandedly sink or swim multiple businesses that rely on the Internet ecosystem by virtue of controlling the dissemination of information through their pipes and now by supplying so much of the content,” said Joel Kelsey, a policy director at consumer interest group Free Press. “So many companies have come to us and ask we fight their battles for them because they are afraid of retribution.”

Cohen is well-compensated for his effectiveness. His latest three-year contract makes him one of the highest paid corporate lobbyists in Washington, with a $15 million annual compensation package and $3 million in bonuses, not including his ample stock holdings in Comcast.

His influence extends to the highest levels of the Obama Administration. Last summer, the family hosted a $1.2 million campaign fundraiser for President Obama, and the Cohens have separately contributed $877,000 to various campaigns. Comcast itself has spent $3.3 million in campaign contributions so far this year.

With a declining number of Americans willing to pay AT&T’s prices for smartphones and wireless service plans, AT&T’s future revenue growth will increasingly depend on getting the company’s current customers to pay more for data and adopt new types of wireless communications services.

After a quarterly earnings report found AT&T subscriber growth falling far behind its larger rival Verizon Wireless, AT&T appears ready to concede there is a finite number of new customers to be won from endless battles for market share.

AT&T was expected to add 358,000 new customers in the previous quarter, but only managed to attract 151,000. Demand for the latest Apple iPhone has yet to meet available supply, with most iPhones obtained by AT&T allocated to existing customers. AT&T exclusively launched the iPhone in the United States in 2007 and retains the largest share of iPhone owners, even after the phone became available from other carriers. Verizon Wireless had fewer problems adding new customers because it is not nearly as dependent on Apple.

de la Vega

Despite lackluster subscriber growth, AT&T reported stellar revenue during the quarter, partly from rate increases and the launch of usage-limited, family share plans. AT&T also continued to benefit from  tax savings, share buybacks, and refinancing debt at lower interest rates. With fewer customers adding subsidized phones, AT&T also paid fewer subsidies.

AT&T’s profit rose to $3.64 billion, or 63 cents per share, up from $3.62 billion, or 61 cents per share — $.03 ahead of Wall Street expectations.

AT&T can thank its wireless data services for a significant chunk of their earnings, with more to come.

The company reported more than 2/3rd’s of their customers (28+ million) are now on usage-based pricing plans. That is 10 million more than a year ago. The company’s new mobile share plans have attracted almost two million subscribers during the first five weeks they were on offer. More than one-third of those customers are choosing the company’s 10GB data allowance, which costs the customer $150 a month with unlimited talk and texting ($30 a month for each additional smartphone on the account.) Around 15% of new mobile share customers are choosing to abandon their grandfathered unlimited data plans.

AT&T’s forthcoming strategic redirection, to be announced Nov. 7, is likely to center around increasing revenue from the company’s wireless data network.

The average AT&T customer’s wireless broadband data bill is on the increase.

Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets, told investors it is taking “this massive data growth and building products and services on top of that.”

“One of the best examples I can give you is our launch of Digitize that will happen next year,” de la Vega said. “It leverages this huge smartphone database and adds services on top of it and not just data access, but services that differentiate us from the competition. So you’re talking about connecting the home with service automation and security monitoring. We’re talking about connecting your car with all kinds of entertainment services.”

That means AT&T sees its future revenue coming mostly from existing customers paying more.

“Those services are not dependent on adding more customers per se, but connecting more houses, connecting more cars and connecting more things that drive significant revenue streams with good margins for us,” de la Vega said. “In terms of what we see happening with others in the industry, I don’t think anything we have seen changes our plan. We’re going to execute [and] let others react to our plan, instead of us reacting to them.”

AT&T seemed unconcerned by competition in the current marketplace, especially from those offering cheaper plans. de la Vega predicted other carriers will come around to AT&T and Verizon’s way of thinking about mobile plan pricing.

“I think these mobile share plans are very compelling to customers,” de la Vega told investors. “And I think those that don’t put them in, in the industry will probably have to rethink down the road because I think the reception has been exceptional.”

John Stephens, AT&T’s chief financial officer, called AT&T’s data growth important, as long as those customers are on tiered data plans. With three-quarters of their customers buying “higher-priced plans,” AT&T can grow revenue by encouraging data usage that forces customers into ever-higher allowance plans that deliver revenue boosts indefinitely.

“I think some of the things driving our pricing and the price moves we made almost a year ago where we increased our data pricing are driving our revenue growth,” de la Vega admitted. “But we’re also seeing people sign up for more data. And the fact is, as you sell more smartphones or more tablets, people need more data. Usage-based data pricing means as usage goes up, we can see some of that lift also coming from additional average revenue per customer. So not only do we feel good where we are, but I feel really good about where we’re going, because you have to have that base of usage base in order to be able to monetize the data growth that we foresee in the future.”

AT&T continues to depend primarily on its wireless division for most of its revenue, but as growth slows, the demand for ever-increasing average revenue from each customer will have to come from increasing prices or finding new services to sell that customers want.

Applications that wireless carriers seek to monetize

Some other highlights:

• AT&T was questioned by Wall Street about its decision to voluntarily contribute a $9.5 billion preferred equity interest in AT&T Mobility into the Pension Plan Trust. Some analysts consider that amount unnecessary and above the amount required by law, despite the company’s assertion this would help protect the long-term health of AT&T’s pension fund. But some retirees note AT&T’s generosity benefits itself — the company’s contribution to the pension plan is invested entirely in AT&T’s wireless business;
• AT&T now has 7.4 million U-verse subscribers, driving wireline revenue growth to levels not seen in more than four years. But AT&T still only averages less than a 15% market share in the cities where U-verse is available, suggesting cable operators are maintaining their market dominance;
• AT&T’s new upgrade policy, which curtails early upgrades and imposes new upgrade fees, is having a dramatic impact on discouraging customers from upgrading their phones. That has kept AT&T’s upgrade rate at a steady 7%, even with the introduction of the wildly popular new iPhone. AT&T has effectively cut their subsidy costs and took a 28% increase in equipment revenue from new upgrade fees to the bank;
• Capital expenditures are on target at $13.8 billion, with more than half of that invested in the wireless business. Landlines and U-verse upgrades took a back seat.
• AT&T receives enough iPhones to activate 5,000-10,000 new iPhone customers a day and still that is insufficient to meet demand;

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/ATT Quarterly Earnings 10-24-12.flv[/flv]

AT&T’s Ralph de la Vega explores the company’s latest quarterly earnings, focused on its profitable wireless business.  (3 minutes)