[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Broadband Blindness.flv[/flv]

Toast Sacramento produced this 28-minute documentary which succinctly tells the story of North American broadband, and how commercial providers have set us up for long-term failure, especially in rural and suburban areas.  Whether you live in the United States or Canada, phone and cable companies dominate the telecommunications landscape.  Unlike other modern-day necessities, broadband is almost entirely in the hands of an unregulated free market that fails millions.  Where competition exists, customers can get reasonably fast service, but it costs more than it should.  Where competition is hard to find: slow speeds, spotty access, and out-of-sight prices predominate.

The documentary explores:

• the neglect of suburban and rural DSL from large phone companies like AT&T;
• how phony, industry-influenced broadband availability maps convince public officials there isn’t a big broadband problem;
• why the country’s broadband demands may be too great for providers to handle without major new investments, leading to usage limits and slowdowns to delay needed upgrades;
• and how the latest broadband technologies being installed overseas fall victim to Wall Street temper tantrums back home.

AT&T’s fiber to the neighborhood service is not exactly winning consumers over in Chattanooga, Tenn.  As of this past spring, AT&T only managed to convince 821 local customers to sign up for U-verse service, in part because the competition delivers faster service, and one doesn’t slap broadband customers with an Internet Overcharging scheme.

While Comcast remains the dominant cable company in the city with more than 100,000 customers, community-owned EPB Fiber has made major advances, primarily against Comcast, picking up at least 33,000 customers in the city since the summer of 2010.

EPB is turning into a major success story for community-owned broadband, typically maligned as a financial failure by cable and phone company competitors.  EPB offers residential customers usage cap free gigabit broadband, television, and telephone service and is competing effectively against the nation’s largest cable operator.

EPB has been raking in more than $3.8 million a month in telecommunications revenue from residential customers alone.  In less than two years, EPB, which also delivers electricity in Chattanooga, has built a $45 million a year telecommunications business.  As a community-owned utility, most of that revenue stays in Chattanooga, benefiting the local economy and allowing EPB to reinvest in its network and improve service.

Comcast, in contrast, has seen its revenue drop by 8.4 percent during the first six months of 2011, primarily because of departing customers. That has forced the dominant cable company to become more aggressive in its efforts to retain those calling to cancel, primarily by slashing prices if wavering customers agree to stay.

Remarkably, AT&T’s U-verse has merited also-ran third place status — the victim of limited availability, the ongoing trend of customers dropping landline service, and the far-superior broadband speeds available from the competition.  AT&T’s Internet Overcharging scheme is also the stingiest, limiting broadband customers to just 150GB for its DSL service, 250GB for U-verse broadband, charging overlimit fees when the caps are exceeded.  Comcast has a usage cap of 250GB with no overlimit fee.  EPB has no limits.

The Chattanooga Times Free Press compares all three providers’ strengths and weaknesses:

EPB Broadband speeds are the fastest in the nation.

AT&T — Very aggressively priced introductory offers, more HD channels than its competitors, plus a “quad-play” bundle that includes AT&T wireless service.  But AT&T’s landline network is still the least equipped to compete on broadband speed, an increasing number of residents continue to turn their back on AT&T when they cut landline service, and U-verse’s usage caps come with overlimit fees.

Comcast — Has a substantial number of on-demand programs to access, can be cheaper than EPB during the initial year of service, and is testing home security and automation services.  Also offers two-hour service call windows and aggressively priced retention deals.  But Comcast’s regular prices are high, its broadband service usage-limited, and its reputation questionable after more than a decade of rate hikes and service complaints.

EPB — The fastest broadband speeds anywhere, EPB runs an advanced fiber to the home network, and maintains a very aggressive attitude about expanding and improving service.  EPB is a formidable competitor.  Community-0wned, its service benefits local residents with a locally-staffed call center, revenues that stay in Chattanooga, and management that answers to customers, not Wall Street.  No caps either.  But EPB can be a harder initial sell for price-sensitive customers because it doesn’t offer heavily discounted service to attract new customers.  But EPB prices don’t rise dramatically after the first year, either.  EPB’s television lineup is less robust than others, in part because it lacks a nationwide presence that brings the kind of volume discounts AT&T and Comcast receive.

FAIL

AT&T announced Monday it has officially dropped its bid for Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile USA.

The company blamed regulator opposition for the failure of the merger, underestimating the Obama Administration’s tolerance for super-sized acquisition deals that could reduce competition and raise prices for consumers.

The real challenge for AT&T initially came not from the Federal Communications Commission, but from the U.S. Department of Justice which filed suit against the merger in August. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski soon followed with statements that suggested the merger would have a difficult time at the Commission as well, and after a scathing report from FCC staffers was made public, Wall Street began to reduce the chances of the merger getting through to the single digits.

Had AT&T successfully merged with fourth-place T-Mobile, it would have easily become the nation’s largest and most powerful wireless provider, advancing beyond current leader Verizon Wireless.

The failure for AT&T will cost the company at least $4 billion in cash and spectrum it earlier agreed to give T-Mobile if the merger failed to complete.  Industry analysts say the real winner this year will easily be Verizon Wireless, which successfully accomplished its own spectrum acquisition by quietly buying unused spectrum from some of the nation’s largest cable companies.  With that spectrum now under Verizon’s control, AT&T has been reduced to signing new roaming agreements with an independent T-Mobile to share their GSM technology networks.  That will do little to alleviate AT&T’s dropped call problem in large cities, analysts say, because most roaming agreements specify sharing network resources only in areas where one carrier does not provide service.

Where U.S. Cell Phone Companies Stand Today

AT&T: AT&T still retains a considerable amount of unused wireless spectrum, but some of it is located on frequency bands that provide a lower quality of service indoors.  AT&T may have a difficult time finding new spectrum, because other carriers have signed partnership deals with most of the companies still holding unused frequencies. One of the largest holders of unused, warehoused spectrum is DISH Networks, and they’ve indicated no interest in selling.  DISH may partner with T-Mobile now that AT&T has exited.  That leaves AT&T with lobbying the government to speed up new spectrum auctions and working internally to expand their cell tower network to divide the traffic load.  It’s an expensive proposition, and several Wall Street analysts are advising their clients to dump AT&T stock.  Kevin Smithen, a Macquarie Capital USA Inc. analyst who downgraded AT&T to “sell” from “hold” last week advised AT&T was running out of options.

Verizon Wireless: Big Red remains in excellent shape to maintain its current market leadership position, particularly as it uses recently-acquired spectrum to bolster its 4G LTE network.  A UBS analyst was more direct: It will have 56 percent more 4G spectrum than AT&T in the top 10 markets and 46 percent more in the top 100, giving it a “meaningful competitive advantage.” Verizon has also cut a deal with cable operators that could reduce competitive pressure on Verizon’s landline/FiOS network from cable companies.  That fringe benefit comes courtesy of an agreement to market each others’ products to consumers.

Sprint: In addition to building its own 4G network, the company still has an agreement with Clearwire that allows Sprint to purchase the former company’s spectrum if it ever becomes available for sale.  With T-Mobile still obviously up for sale, Sprint could attempt its own merger, although it may be wary of stirring the same regulatory pot that got AT&T into trouble.  That leaves T-Mobile’s next buyer likely to be a regional cell phone company, a foreign firm entering the U.S. market, or an existing telecommunications company that decides a wireless division would be of benefit.

Extended Video Coverage

News of AT&T/T-Mobile Merger Failure Breaks

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/AP T-Mobile Merger Dead 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

This report from the Associated Press informs consumers of the basics — the merger is no-go, leaving AT&T and T-Mobile as competitors, at least for now.  (1 minute)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg ATT Pulls T-Mobile Bid After Regulator Opposition 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

AT&T Inc. abandoned a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA after underestimating opposition from regulators, thwarting its ambitions to become the biggest U.S. wireless carrier. AT&T will take a pretax charge of $4 billion to reflect cash payments and other considerations due to T-Mobile-owner Deutsche Telekom AG, the Dallas-based company said in a statement today. Peter Cook, Lisa Murphy, Adam Johnson and Sheila Dharmarajan report on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (7 minutes)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Blair Says ATT’s T-Mobile Bid Was All About Spectrum 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

Brian Blair, an analyst at Wedge Partners Corp., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA and Apple Inc.’s victory in a final patent-infringement ruling that bans some HTC Corp. smartphones from the U.S. Blair speaks with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.”  (11 minutes)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Baird on ATT T-Mobile Failure 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Apologists for AT&T on CNBC wring their hands over how wireless networks will get built out into rural areas now that the T-Mobile deal is dead. Will Power, R.W. Baird & Co, weighs in with a host who clearly cheerleads AT&T’s world-view.  (5 minutes)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC ATT Drops Bid for T-Mobile 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

AT&T drops its $39 billion bid for T-Mobile USA, with Todd Rethemeier, Hudson Square Research.  AT&T’s talking points don’t fly with Rethemeier.  (4 minutes)

T-Mobile’s CEO Speaks About the Merger Failure

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Deutsche Telekom CEO on Failed T-Mobile Merger 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Rene Obermann, Deutsche Telekom CEO, explains why the merger between AT&T and T-Mobile USA should have gone through. “This transaction would have solved a number of industry issues,” he says.  Obermann is in friendly territory on CNBC.  (8 minutes)

The Impact on Sprint

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Horan Sees T-Mobile Eventually Merging With Sprint 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

Tim Horan, an analyst with Oppenheimer & Co., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA, thwarting its ambitions to become the biggest U.S. wireless carrier. Horan speaks with Adam Johnson and Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (3 minutes)

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Gamcos Haverty Says Sprint an Endangered Species 12-19-11.flv[/flv]

Larry Haverty, portfolio manager at Gamco Investors Inc., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA, and the outlook for Sprint Nextel Corp. and the wireless industry. Haverty speaks with Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.” (6 minutes)

 Will DISH Network Be AT&T’s Next Acquisition Target?

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Trading on ATT’s Failed T-Mobile Bid 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Shares of Dish Network up 9% in the aftermath of AT&T’s failed bid to acquire T-Mobile. Michael McCormack, Nomura telecom analyst, weighs in on whether Dish is the next target for AT&T.  (2 minutes)

Cablevision's top executives head on out. Tom Rutledge (left) and John Bickham (right) left within weeks of each other.

The unexpected and sudden departure of two senior executives at Bethpage, N.Y.-based Cablevision has pushed the rumor mill into overdrive the cable company is about to be sold or taken private.

John Bickham, president of cable communications and chief operating officer Tom Rutledge will both be spending more quality time with their respective families after departing Cablevision.  Last Thursday’s announcement that Rutledge would resign caused Cablevision’s stock price to drop by nearly 14% during trading Friday.

The inevitable conclusion on Wall Street: Cablevision is about to be sold or taken private.

Major shareholders and investment firms have criticized Cablevision over the years for being “too successful” signing customers to fixed price double or triple-play packages that provide a full suite of products and services, but deliver few growth opportunities shareholders demand. With heavy competition from Verizon FiOS in most of their service areas, Cablevision’s ability to simply raise rates is limited, especially when customers bounce between promotional offers from the phone and cable companies.

Rutledge’s departure, in particular, has been seen as a major negative on Wall Street because he was responsible for many of Cablevision’s most innovative products, including streamed video, his advocacy for boosting broadband speeds, and the company’s aggressive move into home security.

Craig Moffett, a Wall Street analyst from Sanford Bernstein, thinks Comcast and Time Warner Cable are set to divide the spoils in a shared buyout — Comcast grabbing northern New Jersey and Connecticut and Time Warner Cable assuming control of Cablevision’s systems in New York.  But other analysts don’t think that scenario is so likely, especially when considering the Dolan family’s long history in the cable business.

ISI Group Inc. analyst Vijay Jayant told Light Reading Cable he believes the more likely scenario would have the Dolan family buying out shareholders and taking the cable company private.

Time Warner Cable has repeatedly informed shareholders the company will not engage in bidding wars or overpay to win new acquisitions, and the Dolan family’s selling price for Cablevision is likely far higher than Time Warner would be willing to pay.  Comcast might have a political problem assuming control of more cable systems after its recent merger with NBC-Universal.  Shareholders may also rebel, as they did in a 2007 effort to take Cablevision private.  Investors felt they were offered too low a price to compensate them for their shares.

Moffett believes Cablevision’s days of high earnings and rapid growth are behind them, because just about everyone who wants cable service already has it, either from Verizon FiOS or Cablevision.

“No, we don’t think [Cablevision] can grow. And, no, we don’t think the rest of cable is doomed to the same fate,” Bernstein’s Moffett wrote in a report in late November. “The cause of [Cablevision’s] growth decline is straightforward: it has been so successful in achieving high product penetrations that growing further is quite challenging.”

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Joyce Says Cablevision May Be a Takeover Target 12-16-11.mp4[/flv]

David Joyce, media analyst at Miller Tabak & Co., talks about Cablevision Systems Corp. Chief Operating Officer Tom Rutledge’s resignation and the outlook for the company.  Bloomberg News.  (5 minutes)

Time Warner Cable’s ruminations about charging usage-based pricing in 2012 has Wall Street all excited about the fatter profits made possible by nickle-and-diming broadband customers for their Internet use.  Forbes magazine tells investors the easy money earned from Internet Overcharging could boost the company’s profits and stock price:

We estimate that Time Warner Cable’s broadband business is single-most important business for the company, constituting about 42% to its value. The company’s management’s words essentially echo our estimates.

The company sees itself primarily as a broadband provider, bundling some extra services such as pay-TV for customer convenience. That said, any change to the pricing is likely to have notable impact on the company’s value, and therefore to its stock. Assuming that a tiered pricing is implemented and brings in more revenue per broadband subscriber, the company’s results could improve.

We believe that our fee per broadband subscriber forecast incorporate increasing penetration of high speed packages, but it could change if the company was to charge higher or implement a tiered pricing for high usage.

These kinds of earning estimates are what makes raising prices for Internet service so popular among the Wall Street crowd.  It fattens their portfolios, even if it increases cable bills which already routinely rise well beyond the national inflation rate.  The only caveat?  Customers could leave for other providers or eventually find the service too expensive to make it worthwhile.  Trefis, a business analysis firm, created an analysis tool (seen above) that allows readers to raise and lower the current estimates for Time Warner’s broadband pricing, add and remove competitors, and check out the impact on the company’s predicted stock price.  The results couldn’t be clearer.  The more you gouge consumers for expensive broadband, the bigger the Money Party, particularly if you live in an area with anemic DSL competition.