FAIL

AT&T announced Monday it has officially dropped its bid for Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile USA.

The company blamed regulator opposition for the failure of the merger, underestimating the Obama Administration’s tolerance for super-sized acquisition deals that could reduce competition and raise prices for consumers.

The real challenge for AT&T initially came not from the Federal Communications Commission, but from the U.S. Department of Justice which filed suit against the merger in August. FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski soon followed with statements that suggested the merger would have a difficult time at the Commission as well, and after a scathing report from FCC staffers was made public, Wall Street began to reduce the chances of the merger getting through to the single digits.

Had AT&T successfully merged with fourth-place T-Mobile, it would have easily become the nation’s largest and most powerful wireless provider, advancing beyond current leader Verizon Wireless.

The failure for AT&T will cost the company at least $4 billion in cash and spectrum it earlier agreed to give T-Mobile if the merger failed to complete.  Industry analysts say the real winner this year will easily be Verizon Wireless, which successfully accomplished its own spectrum acquisition by quietly buying unused spectrum from some of the nation’s largest cable companies.  With that spectrum now under Verizon’s control, AT&T has been reduced to signing new roaming agreements with an independent T-Mobile to share their GSM technology networks.  That will do little to alleviate AT&T’s dropped call problem in large cities, analysts say, because most roaming agreements specify sharing network resources only in areas where one carrier does not provide service.

Where U.S. Cell Phone Companies Stand Today

AT&T: AT&T still retains a considerable amount of unused wireless spectrum, but some of it is located on frequency bands that provide a lower quality of service indoors.  AT&T may have a difficult time finding new spectrum, because other carriers have signed partnership deals with most of the companies still holding unused frequencies. One of the largest holders of unused, warehoused spectrum is DISH Networks, and they’ve indicated no interest in selling.  DISH may partner with T-Mobile now that AT&T has exited.  That leaves AT&T with lobbying the government to speed up new spectrum auctions and working internally to expand their cell tower network to divide the traffic load.  It’s an expensive proposition, and several Wall Street analysts are advising their clients to dump AT&T stock.  Kevin Smithen, a Macquarie Capital USA Inc. analyst who downgraded AT&T to “sell” from “hold” last week advised AT&T was running out of options.

Verizon Wireless: Big Red remains in excellent shape to maintain its current market leadership position, particularly as it uses recently-acquired spectrum to bolster its 4G LTE network.  A UBS analyst was more direct: It will have 56 percent more 4G spectrum than AT&T in the top 10 markets and 46 percent more in the top 100, giving it a “meaningful competitive advantage.” Verizon has also cut a deal with cable operators that could reduce competitive pressure on Verizon’s landline/FiOS network from cable companies.  That fringe benefit comes courtesy of an agreement to market each others’ products to consumers.

Sprint: In addition to building its own 4G network, the company still has an agreement with Clearwire that allows Sprint to purchase the former company’s spectrum if it ever becomes available for sale.  With T-Mobile still obviously up for sale, Sprint could attempt its own merger, although it may be wary of stirring the same regulatory pot that got AT&T into trouble.  That leaves T-Mobile’s next buyer likely to be a regional cell phone company, a foreign firm entering the U.S. market, or an existing telecommunications company that decides a wireless division would be of benefit.

Extended Video Coverage

News of AT&T/T-Mobile Merger Failure Breaks

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/AP T-Mobile Merger Dead 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

This report from the Associated Press informs consumers of the basics — the merger is no-go, leaving AT&T and T-Mobile as competitors, at least for now.  (1 minute)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg ATT Pulls T-Mobile Bid After Regulator Opposition 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

AT&T Inc. abandoned a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA after underestimating opposition from regulators, thwarting its ambitions to become the biggest U.S. wireless carrier. AT&T will take a pretax charge of $4 billion to reflect cash payments and other considerations due to T-Mobile-owner Deutsche Telekom AG, the Dallas-based company said in a statement today. Peter Cook, Lisa Murphy, Adam Johnson and Sheila Dharmarajan report on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (7 minutes)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Blair Says ATT’s T-Mobile Bid Was All About Spectrum 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

Brian Blair, an analyst at Wedge Partners Corp., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA and Apple Inc.’s victory in a final patent-infringement ruling that bans some HTC Corp. smartphones from the U.S. Blair speaks with Emily Chang on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.”  (11 minutes)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Baird on ATT T-Mobile Failure 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Apologists for AT&T on CNBC wring their hands over how wireless networks will get built out into rural areas now that the T-Mobile deal is dead. Will Power, R.W. Baird & Co, weighs in with a host who clearly cheerleads AT&T’s world-view.  (5 minutes)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC ATT Drops Bid for T-Mobile 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

AT&T drops its $39 billion bid for T-Mobile USA, with Todd Rethemeier, Hudson Square Research.  AT&T’s talking points don’t fly with Rethemeier.  (4 minutes)

T-Mobile’s CEO Speaks About the Merger Failure

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Deutsche Telekom CEO on Failed T-Mobile Merger 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Rene Obermann, Deutsche Telekom CEO, explains why the merger between AT&T and T-Mobile USA should have gone through. “This transaction would have solved a number of industry issues,” he says.  Obermann is in friendly territory on CNBC.  (8 minutes)

The Impact on Sprint

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Horan Sees T-Mobile Eventually Merging With Sprint 12-19-11.mp4[/flv]

Tim Horan, an analyst with Oppenheimer & Co., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA, thwarting its ambitions to become the biggest U.S. wireless carrier. Horan speaks with Adam Johnson and Lisa Murphy on Bloomberg Television’s “Street Smart.” (3 minutes)

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Gamcos Haverty Says Sprint an Endangered Species 12-19-11.flv[/flv]

Larry Haverty, portfolio manager at Gamco Investors Inc., talks about AT&T Inc.’s decision to abandon a $39 billion takeover bid for T-Mobile USA, and the outlook for Sprint Nextel Corp. and the wireless industry. Haverty speaks with Cory Johnson on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.” (6 minutes)

 Will DISH Network Be AT&T’s Next Acquisition Target?

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Trading on ATT’s Failed T-Mobile Bid 12-20-11.mp4[/flv]

Shares of Dish Network up 9% in the aftermath of AT&T’s failed bid to acquire T-Mobile. Michael McCormack, Nomura telecom analyst, weighs in on whether Dish is the next target for AT&T.  (2 minutes)

Wildfires can result when overloaded utility poles topple in California's Santa Ana winds.

The California Public Utilities Commission’s Consumer Protection and Safety Division is recommending $99 million in fines against the local power utility and several phone companies for overloading power poles with cables which toppled and started a major wildfire in Malibu Canyon in 2007.

Even worse, the PUC alleges, the power company lied to investigators and destroyed evidence to cover up the cause of the blaze, which burned more than a dozen structures to the ground and destroyed dozens of vehicles.

Named in addition to Southern California Edison are phone companies: Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, and NextC Networks of California. All are being blamed for loading up phone poles with excessive wiring for both traditional utility service and backhaul wired connections to serve area cell towers. The bulk of the proposed fine is likely to be lodged against Edison because of the evidence tampering allegations, but phone companies are also deemed liable.

At issue are the annual bouts of Santa Ana winds which can create gusts up to 80mph or higher. Most utility poles were designed to support a load of a few power cables, landline phone service, and cable television lines. But in many parts of canyon country, wireless phone companies rely heavily on utility poles to connect to their network of cell towers which are strategically located on ridges and mountains to serve populated valley regions below. While some cell phone companies now rely on fiber connections, many also still utilize a series of copper wire circuits to provide sufficient wireless capacity. In some cases, companies may hang several cables to meet bandwidth needs. The more cables, the more susceptible poles become to wind loads, which can literally snap poles in half or force them out of the ground in high wind gusts.

When electric lines topple, they can start fires that quickly grow out of control in remote areas.

Downed power lines are blamed for a number of wildfires in California, including the 2008 Sesnon fire in the San Fernando Valley. Fire investigators and local officials have pressured utility companies to mitigate the hazards from downed power lines by keeping excess cables and equipment off the poles.

Hans Laetz, a Malibu resident who has lived with what he calls “spindly-looking utility poles” for more than a decade was not surprised when life-threatening wildfires were blamed on downed lines.

“My family and my neighbors in Malibu are being placed at risk,” Laetz told the Los Angeles Times. “I drove under those poles on Malibu Canyon Road for 10 years, and I thought one of these days, one of those poles was going to fall. You could tell this was a disaster waiting to happen…. And then it happened.”

Edison denied the allegations it mislead investigators and called the proposed fine “excessive.”

AT&T admits it holds on to some customer data, including text message details, calling records, and billing statements for as long as seven years according to a new Justice Department document that raises privacy and security concerns.

“This disclosure reflects the importance of data minimization,” Greg Nojeim, senior counsel at the Center for Democracy and Technology in Washington, told Bloomberg News. “Some companies do a much better job of disposing of sensitive, personally identifiable information. Once such information is no longer needed for business-reasons, it shouldn’t be held onto because of the risks that it could be obtained by a hacker.”

Privacy advocates are also concerned the lengthy storage offers new opportunities for government intrusion into customer privacy, either for national security or law enforcement purposes.

Although every cell phone company maintains storage of customer and billing records, few keep the data for more than one year.  AT&T stores the data the longest, by far, and that bothers the American Civil Liberties Union of North Carolina:

AT&T/Cingular appears to keep all of its cell tower records since July 2008. How long do they plan to keep this data for? Are they just creating an infinite record of everywhere you’ve ever been with your cell phone? Do you remember where you were on September 28, 2008? If you have AT&T/Cingular, your phone company may know. And they might tell the cops.

But the company says it acts as a responsible steward of the information it warehouses.

AT&T gathers data to provide “the best customer experience possible” and uses “powerful encryption and other security safeguards to protect customer data,” according to the company’s privacy policy.

(Click to enlarge)

The ACLU chapter filed a Freedom of Information Act request to obtain the data seen above.  Once the ACLU won their request, the Justice Department publicly posted the information on their website.

In addition to basic billing and customer data, cell phone companies also record the specific cell towers used when making and receiving calls and the messages that travel across their networks, including where they originated and where they were sent.  The numbers called, call length, and the times of day when your phone is used the most were all recorded.  Some cell phone companies also use the data for marketing purposes.

Also in North Carolina, last week we shared the story of George Kontos, who single-handedly faced down AT&T, who overcharged his family for nearly two years’ of service.  After finally winning a refund of nearly $2,000, Kontos updates Stop the Cap! with news the North Carolina Attorney General’s office has taken an interest in the case and plans to launch a statewide investigation into AT&T’s billing practices.  If the state turns up problems, it’s only a matter of time before other states start their own investigations.

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WITI Milwaukee Five year dispute with ATT 10-10-11.mp4[/flv]

The Attorney General of Wisconsin might find something to investigate in Wauwatosa — namely one local woman’s five-year fight with AT&T to maintain basic landline phone service.  WITI in Milwaukee shares the story of Darnelle Kaishian, who considers fighting AT&T her “full time job.”  It’s so bad, her friends now visit her in person, because her phone almost never works.  (2 minutes)

Upcoming wireless spectrum auctions are critically important for some of Canada’s newest players in the cell phone marketplace.  Most are working hard to make sure they have plenty to spend to secure new frequencies for advanced wireless services that will help them remain competitive with larger players.

Globalive Holdings, the parent company of Wind Mobile, has convinced backers to provide hundreds of millions of dollars in financing, so long as all of the money is spent on acquiring wireless spectrum.

Wind’s nearly 400,000 customers will appreciate the additional room for growth, and new customers may keep Wind in mind for advanced 4G networks most Canadian providers intend to build and expand into the new spectrum they acquire at an auction next year.

Much of the funding, estimated to approach nearly a half-billion dollars, is coming from Wind’s parent entities, Egypt-based Orascom Telecom and the European conglomerate VimpelCom that acquired Orascom earlier this year.  Because the Canadian government is expected to set-aside some of the valued 700MHz spectrum exclusively for bidding among new entrants in the market, Wind could walk away a big winner, particularly if other similar-sized competitors Mobilicity and Vidéotron Ltee./Quebecor have trouble raising enough money to remain competitive in the bidding.

As far as Canada’s largest cell companies are concerned, set-asides are unnecessary and they prefer a winner-take-all auction.  Rogers, in particular, has been lobbying hard to convince Canadian officials it needs access to the 700MHz spectrum up for auction to roll out service in rural communities and upgrade networks in larger cities.

Those who feel Canada’s cell phone marketplace is already too concentrated have little sympathy for Rogers’ point of view, and expect an auction free-for-all will mean the largest incumbent players will walk away with everything they can bid on.

Among smaller players, assuming the set-asides are in place, analysts expect Wind will probably secure the most spectrum, but Vidéotron is expected to stay competitive and walk away with at least some frequencies for use in its home province of Quebec.  Big losses among the smaller players could fuel calls for additional mergers and acquisitions among those carriers deemed to have been left behind.

The Canadian government is expected to be the biggest winner of all, netting a potential $3-4 billion from the spectrum sale.

A new study from the University of Michigan suggests one U.S. cell phone company is intentionally throttling cell phone speeds by as much as 50 percent, potentially to engage in “deep packet inspection” of their customers’ wireless traffic.

The researchers also found bad network management may be costing you up to 10 percent of your daily battery life.

The study, published by a team of researchers at the university and Microsoft Research, relied on nearly 400 volunteers running a diagnostic application while using 107 wireless providers around the world.  Researchers found company policies at several carriers in conflict with practices guaranteeing the fastest wireless data speeds, maximum battery life, and protection from malware and other hacker actions like IP spoofing.

The researchers refused to name the biggest offending carriers, citing legal reasons, but rang the alarm that network performance and security was clearly hampered by management decisions designed to keep costs down and maximize company network efficiency, at the expense of the quality of your service.  Among the conclusions:

• Microsoft engineer Ming Zhang believes the one U.S. carrier with dramatically reduced speed performance is probably using “deep packet inspection” techniques to analyze what individual customers are doing with their wireless connections.  The overhead from that inspection process is implicated in reduced speeds and performance;
• At least 11 wireless carriers are hurriedly shutting down TCP data connections that applications want to leave open in order to communicate on the network.  When an app discovers the data connection has been closed, it has to request a new connection, wasting up to 10 percent of daily battery life;
• Four of 60 cellular networks allow IP spoofing, which can make hosts vulnerable to scanning and battery draining attacks even though they are behind a firewall.