Time Warner Cable’s summer was “horrible,” to quote one analyst, after three percent of customers left over programming disputes and increasing prices for broadband and telephone service, with more likely to follow as price promotions expire and rates increase further.

Cable analysts were shocked Time Warner Cable lost 308,000 customers in the last three months, most leaving over interruptions of CBS and Showtime over a contract dispute. But customers were also ready to leave over increasing modem rental fees, rate increases, and the company’s growing pullback on promotional pricing. Time Warner Cable’s poor results have ironically caused its stock price to increase this morning, but only because investors suspect a shareholder value-boosting merger with Charter Communications could come within months.

“Just horrible,” MoffetNathanson analyst Craig Moffett wrote in a note to investor clients this morning. “The CBS dispute apparently took a much larger toll than anyone would have imagined, and this colored all the results.”

Sources have told Reuters that cable billionaire John Malone has approached Time Warner Cable about a full takeover by Charter Communications, but has been rebuffed by Britt so far. But with Britt exiting and Time Warner Cable’s underperformance, shareholder pressure for a deal with Charter will only increase.

“This enhances Malone’s appeal to Time Warner Cable shareholders that they would be better off with another management team,” Brean Capital analyst Todd Mitchell told Reuters.

When promotional prices end, a growing percentage of TWC customers drop services or take their business elsewhere.

The subscriber losses pushed profits down 34 percent at the cable company, to $532 million. The triple play tragedy saw subscriber losses for all the company’s residential services. At a time when other cable companies cannot process High Speed Internet sign ups fast enough, at least 24,000 Time Warner Cable broadband customers left over rate hikes and equipment fees. Analysts had expected the company to pick up more than 46,000 broadband customers during the last three months, not lose them. The company’s phone service is also in decline. Only rate increases and customers upgrading to higher speed tiers delivered a slight revenue boost.

Outgoing CEO Glenn Britt set the stage for the current forced retreat on its revenue forecast for the year:

• Time Warner Cable executives made the decision at the end of 2012 to stop heavily discounting service and cut back on promotions. Their theory was the company would attract a larger base of stable customers willing to pay non-promotional rates and tolerate rate increases;
• Executives announced as Time Warner’s phone service was brought “in-house,” the company would stop aggressively pricing triple play bundles that included phone service. That turned out to be a bad decision for growth because customers, already prone to landline cord-cutting, downgraded their bundle or left when promotions expired and ditched the phone line;
• A year of broadband price increases and the introduction of a modem rental fee rubbed customers the wrong way. “We have raised prices recently in the form of modem rental fees, but it’s really just broadband price increase,” again admitted Britt this morning. Future rate increases on modem rentals will give broadband customers another push to shop around for a better deal. At least 24,000 did that over the summer and left, mostly for AT&T U-verse in the midwest and Verizon FiOS in the east.

The lengthy dispute between Time Warner and CBS did the most damage and not just to customers directly affected by channel losses. A major increase in call volumes from alienated customers overwhelmed national call centers, creating long hold times for everyone calling in.

Time Warner expects 40 percent of the cable company’s service area will be overlapped by major competitors AT&T U-verse (now 27%) and Verizon FiOS (now 13%). That represents one million more homes than last year.

Bye Bye: Time Warner Cable lost residential customers for all of its services during the third quarter.

Incoming CEO Robert Marcus said he was dissatisfied with subscriber results from current promotions and rates. New Time Warner Cable customers, Marcus noted, are paying higher prices for fewer or less robust services as part of current promotional packages. Although that has driven a “dramatic improvement in recurring revenue” among customers actually signing up, many choose the lower-priced competition instead.

Marcus also noted customers are taking fewer services and are resistant to upgrading to double or triple play packages, reducing the potential average revenue per customer (ARPU).

“To a great extent, these are expected outcomes of our pricing and packaging strategy and the trade-off between ARPU and volume, but I’m confident we can do better on volume without giving up the ARPU benefits we’ve been achieving,” Marcus told analysts on a morning conference call.

Instead of getting more aggressive on pricing, the company plans to trot out free gifts and pitch discounted slow speed Internet to attract price-resistant DSL customers.

“Next week, we’ll launch our holiday offer, which includes a free Samsung tablet loaded with all of our apps, including TWC TV, with the purchase of higher-end packages,” Marcus said. “I think this will generate lots of interest and really highlight TWC TV and the value it adds to our service offerings.”

Marcus called it inconceivable and unacceptable that at least 4.5 million people are still subscribed to telephone company DSL in Time Warner Cable service areas. The company plans an advertising blitz to steal customers away from companies like AT&T, Verizon, Frontier, CenturyLink, Windstream and FairPoint.

At the center of that effort is the recently announced 2/1Mbps Lite package, which will sell at the everyday price of $14.95 a month. Marcus wants at least 500,000 DSL customers switched to Time Warner over the next 18 months.

“Over time, as these customers’ speed and capacity needs increase, we’ll be well positioned to sell them higher-end product,” Marcus said.

Or they will switch back to the phone company if Time Warner increases the price.

Efforts by local officials to attract more cable competition are paying off in suburban Cleveland, Ohio and Detroit, Mich. where customers will soon be able to choose between two cable companies or AT&T for cable service.

WOW!, a Denver-based cable overbuilder, has announced it will expand service to Lathrup Village, Mich. and Sheffield Lake, Brunswick, and North Ridgeville, Ohio between now and the middle of next year.

North Ridgeville City Council president Kevin Corcoran last week announced WOW! would begin head-to-head competition with Time Warner Cable starting in 2014. Corcoran told The Chronicle Telegram the city began looking for a competing cable provider after hearing complaints from residents about Time Warner Cable’s poor customer service and reliability. He approached WOW!, which has provided competitive service in parts of the greater Cleveland area, about expanding in North Ridgeville.

“My only pitch was that people are dying for some competition,” Corcoran told the newspaper.

Corcoran met informally with WOW! officials to discuss the prospects of expanding into North Ridgeville before more formal meetings were held with city officials including the mayor and the safety-service director.

Making life easier for WOW!’s entry is the presence of existing utility easements, which means WOW! can run cable on existing utility poles without formal approval by the city council. But WOW! will still need certain permits from the Building Department to move forward with wiring. The company will use Ohio’s statewide video franchising law, originally pushed by AT&T for U-verse, to obtain video service permits and a franchise agreement with the Ohio Department of Commerce.

WOW!’s regular prices are much lower than Time Warner Cable’s promotional prices for new customers:

• Standard triple play (15/1Mbps Internet, Cable TV, phone) costs $105.98/month from Time Warner ($118.97 with DVR), $85/month from WOW! ($92 with DVR);
• Standard double play (15/1Mbps Internet, Cable TV) still costs $105.98/month from Time Warner ($118.98 with DCR), $75/month from WOW! ($82 with DVR);
• Internet-only service (15/1Mbps) costs $40.98/month from Time Warner Cable, $30/month from WOW! (promotional pricing expires after 12 months).

Time Warner Cable said it welcomes the competition.

A new research report issued by Time Warner Cable concludes cell phone companies like AT&T and Verizon Wireless cannot meet the future data demands of customers over their 4G LTE wireless networks without punitive usage caps and high fees to deter usage, even with new spectrum becoming available for the wireless industry’s use.

The report, authored by Michael Calabrese of the New America Foundation, finds an answer to this problem in Wi-Fi, which can offload wireless traffic and deliver wireless service customers already prefer:

There is simply not enough exclusively licensed spectrum to meet the rapidly rising demand for wireless data, to sustain a competitive market, and to keep prices at an affordable level.

Major mobile carriers are increasingly coming to grips with this reality. The Wireless Broadband Alliance, a global industry group, reports that Wi-Fi offloading has become an industry standard as “18 of the world’s top 20 largest telcos by revenue have now publicly committed to investing in deploying their own Wi-Fi Hotspot networks.” The industry is shifting steadily toward what it calls heterogeneous networks (HetNets)—i.e., a combination of licensed and unlicensed infrastructure—in order to meet their customers’ insatiable demand for data while keeping costs down.

Alcatel-Lucent forecasts an increase of “87 times [the current] daily traffic on wireless networks” over the next five years, with 50 percent of that traffic on cellular networks “while the remaining 50 percent will be offloaded to Wi-Fi.”

Cisco’s own studies back Calabrese’s findings on consumer preference towards Wi-Fi.

“Given a choice, more than 80 percent of tablet, laptop, and eReader owners would either prefer Wi-Fi to mobile access, or have no preference,” Cisco concluded. “And, just over half of smartphone owners would prefer to use Wi-Fi, or are ambivalent about the two access networks.”

The Cisco surveys found users are choosing Wi-Fi over mobile connectivity for reasons of cost, “because it doesn’t impose data-usage caps or reduce their mobile data plan quotas.” But the primary reason for choosing Wi-Fi “is that respondents find it much faster than mobile networks.” And since Wi-Fi traffic travels over increasingly upgraded wireline networks, that speed differential may only increase as more and more homes, businesses and retail outlets upgrade to fiber optic or other high-speed connections of 100Mbps or more.

America’s largest wireless carriers have fallen far behind offering Wi-Fi services to customers compared to their overseas colleagues:

• AT&T: More than 32,000 Wi-Fi hotspots are available at partnered retail businesses, restaurants, and high-traffic areas like stadiums and major tourist destinations;
• Verizon Wireless: Verizon has an insignificant Wi-Fi presence, with a small number of unadvertised hotspots in selected venues like airports and convention centers;
• Japan’s NTT DOCOMO: Up to 150,000 hotspots, up from only 8,400 in 2o12.
• China Mobile: More than 2 million hotspots are up and running carrying 70 percent of the company’s data traffic.
• France’s Free Mobile: More than 4 million residential hotspots are available through Free’s parent – Iliad.

Comcast could soon be the nation’s largest Wi-Fi hotspot provider.

Calabrese argues it is important for the United States to set aside significant spectrum for unlicensed wireless networks like Wi-Fi to meet future wireless demands. Currently, some Republican members of Congress are opposed to significant spectrum set asides they feel could best be monetized for private use through the spectrum auction process.

It is no coincidence that Calabrese’s findings would be released by Time Warner Cable which itself is growing a Wi-Fi presence in certain cities where it provides cable service.

The wireless carriers’ collective lack of interest in an aggressive nationwide Wi-Fi deployment may have provided a strategic opening for cable operators to fill that gap with Wi-Fi networks of their own. Cable operators consider them a useful tool to retain customer loyalty — access is typically free and unlimited for current customers.

This summer, Comcast announced a “neighborhood hotspot initiative” that will turn millions of customer cable Internet connections into shared Wi-Fi hotspots using a dual-use wireless home gateway. The equipment will offer two separate Wi-Fi signals — one intended for the customer and the other open for use by any Comcast customers in the neighborhood. The cable company will provision extra bandwidth for the open Wi-Fi network to ease concerns that guest users could theoretically slow down a customer’s own Wi-Fi channel. In a relatively short period, Comcast could become the nation’s biggest Wi-Fi network offering more than 20 million hotspots hosted by the company’s own broadband customers.

Calabrese points to the future of seamless transitions between wired, wireless 4G and Wi-Fi network access without dropping calls or data connections. Many customers won’t even know the difference.

The author recommends the FCC think about reserving space for new unlicensed “citizens band” frequencies dedicated for public and private Wi-Fi networks:

• The FCC should reorganize the UHF TV band to ensure the availability of at least 30 to 40MHz of unlicensed spectrum in every media market, perhaps including Channel 37 (now reserved for radio astronomy) and eliminating two dedicated channels reserved for wireless microphones;
• Open the grossly underutilized 3.5–3.7GHz federal band for unlicensed small cell antennas delivering a ‘Citizens Broadband Service.’ This band is now mostly used for offshore naval radar, allowing both services to co-exist without mutual interference;
• Expand unlicensed access to the 5GHz band by allocating the 5.35–5.47 and 5.85–5.925GHz bands providing contiguous, very wide channels useful for the 802.11ac Wi-Fi standard that can support very high-speed wireless services.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/XFINITY Wireless Gateway Powers Connected Home Summer 2013.flv[/flv]

Comcast talks about their new X3 Wireless Gateway which is capable of providing two separate Wi-Fi networks, one for the customer and another for the neighborhood. (2 minutes)

Time Warner Cable believes it has room to raise broadband prices and get away with it without much customer backlash.

The cable company’s chief financial officer, Arthur Minson, raised the prospect of more price hikes at Tuesday’s Goldman Sachs 22nd Annual Communacopia Conference.

“Look, the modem [fee] was really just a form of a High Speed Data rate increase,” Minson said, referring to the company’s introduction of a $4 cable modem rental fee last fall and a later increase to around $6 a month introduced this summer. “I do see an ability for us to continue to have ARPU increases on that product.”

“ARPU” refers to the Average Revenue Per User — a term that reflects what companies earn in revenue divided by the number of customers. In most cases, an ARPU increase comes from price hikes or customers subscribing to additional value-added services.

Minson

Minson suggested that the company’s gradual rollout of optional usage-based pricing tiers provides an alternative for price-sensitive customers that cannot afford rate increases on flat-rate service or are seeking a price reduction.

“I think we’re very pleased with where we are in the usage-based pricing front and I think that’s something we will continue,” Minson concluded. “I think over time it will be interesting to see how many people ultimately take the usage-based pricing, or will people say I just want to have unlimited and I think the market will speak on that.”

Time Warner Cable has focused investment on several fronts this year, and plans continued investments to expand offerings in these key areas:

1. Business broadband expansion. Some of the company’s biggest investments target wiring businesses and office parks for cable service, primarily to expand commercial broadband. “Commercial services is success-based capital that we see real meaningful returns on,” Minson said.
2. Wi-Fi expansion. Time Warner Cable will continue expanding Wi-Fi hotspots in select cities. Customers with Standard (15/1Mbps) service or above can use the service for free. Minson said that the company was very happy to offer customers subscribed to unlimited use tiers free access to Wi-Fi. Not so for those choosing usage-based pricing plans. They will have to upgrade to an unlimited plan to get free access. “That’s a real incentive to drive people into the higher tiers,” Minson noted.
3. DOCSIS 3.1. Time Warner plans to adopt and invest in DOCSIS 3.1 cable modem technology when it is officially released. DOCSIS 3.1 will offer more efficient broadband transport and will let companies offer even faster speeds. Minson noted that broadband is increasingly the company’s anchor product, so it will continue investments accordingly.

Customers looking for aggressive pricing won’t find much at Time Warner Cable. Minson noted the company will continue its year-long pullback on low-priced promotions.

“We have a $79 bundle out in the marketplace and you would say okay, that sounds similar to the offer in the marketplace last year,” Minson said. “It may be similar but in terms of what you get for that $79 it is very different from what we gave a year ago and what we have now is the ability to meaningfully up sell the customers from the beacon price.”

A year ago, Time Warner Cable didn’t have a modem rental fee and typically bundled its Standard tier Internet service in its promotional packages. A traditional triple-play package of phone, cable TV and Internet service starts at $89 today, but only includes 3Mbps broadband, doesn’t bundle DVR service, and doesn’t include a mandatory set-top box which now costs a minimum of $8.99 a month each. Combining the modem fee with the mandatory box charge raises the promotional price to $104.97 a month.

• Upgrading to Standard 15/1Mbps service costs an extra $10 a month.
• Adding a DVR? That costs an additional $21.94 a month.
• The “whole house” DVR package is now priced at $37.47 a month.
• Time Warner Cable has also recently increased the price of premium movie channels to a uniform $15.95 each for HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, and Starz.

Taking into account these popular upsold add-ons, the promotional price of $79-89 might be seen as bait and switch by some customers. The true cost for most choosing a triple play package including cable TV with DVR service, one set-top box, a Time Warner-supplied cable modem, and a speed upgrade to 15/1Mbps service is $127.92 a month before taxes and fees.

Customers unhappy with their cable bill who call to complain are now routed to specially trained retention operators, Minson said.

“We’ve taken about a 1,000 dedicated employees and focused them on retention and even within those centers there are areas of expertise,” Minson said. “For our Spanish language customers we have retention centers set-up to help them when they call in. For people who are coming off a promotional offer, we have dedicated reps who can deal with that group of customers. So it’s having a deeper set of expertise in those areas and the returns so far are well within our expectations and we are really pleased with how it’s going.”

When you bought a home or moved into an apartment, were you offered a special discount deal to sign up with Time Warner Cable? Or is cable television already provided as part of your lease?

While everyone enjoys saving on cable television, telephone and broadband service, chances are your landlord or the person who lets the cable installer into the building is getting a better deal than you ever will.

Cable companies often (quietly) offer realtors, builders, condo association leaders, landlords, superintendents and even their assistants free or deeply discounted cable service for a variety of reasons:

• Building owners and builders are given special consideration to help encourage contract agreements that offer bulk cable service to every resident in the complex. More Barndominium information about builders on this website. The cable operator usually also gets exclusive use of inside wiring, discouraging the competition;
• Realtors and property developers are often paid in cash for new subscriber leads, usually resulting from “welcome to your new home” move-in kits, “concierge” services offered by your realtor, or special flyers left at your door that pay rewards every time a customer signs up;
• Superintendents, landlords, and maintenance staff get free service in return for making life easier for Time Warner Cable technicians trying to get into a large multiple dwelling building on service calls. Free cable, including complimentary HBO and Showtime is almost always an effective incentive for those that can otherwise make life very difficult for service providers.

Time Warner Cable has provided free or deeply discounted “courtesy accounts” for more than a decade. For much of that time, the informal agreement required the recipient to provide little more than convenient building access for Time Warner Cable technicians. Participants in the program were also asked to pass along any service issues or complaints.

Sometimes, even customers act as informal salespeople for cable service. Time Warner’s “Shared Savings” Bulk Discount program is available in buildings where 40 residents or 50% of the building, whichever is greater, can be convinced to commit to a service contract with Time Warner Cable lasting up to three years. In return, customers are promised free standard installation, bulk-rate Digital TV service, discounted broadband and phone service, and flexible billing options that can either bill residents directly or dispatch a single monthly invoice to building management where service is bundled with a renter’s lease agreement.

This week, the New York Times reported Time Warner Cable was reviewing its courtesy accounts program and asking participants to recommit themselves (and include their Social Security number on an included IRS tax form).

Details about Time Warner’s Apartment Managers’ Program are hard to find. No cable company wants to openly advertise that select customers are getting cable service for free while others watch their bills continue to grow and grow. The Times outlines the new agreement the cable company is requiring New York City program participants to sign.

Real estate workers are now asked to send employment verification along with a signed, formal contract that includes commitments to act as a goodwill ambassador for Time Warner Cable, help the company sell products, and snoop on tenants suspected of stealing cable.

“It is the intention of Time Warner Cable to provide the Promotional Services contemplated in this Agreement to further solidify and enhance the mutually beneficial business relationship between your property and Time Warner Cable,” one California Time Warner Cable contract states. “In keeping with the spirit of this relationship, we expect the Recipient to be our goodwill ambassador to all employees and residents by positively promoting our products and services. […] Time Warner Cable employees will be allowed access to the property to install, maintain and market services door to door between the hours of 8AM and 9PM.”

The Times reports few real estate professionals have any ethical problems making sure the cable company has a reliable point of contact in the building to let workers in without delay and there isn’t much controversy over requests to report service problems either.

But there are concerns about language that informally appoints building workers as deputy ambassadors and marketers of Time Warner Cable products. One offer rewards a free month of Internet to a program participant for every three leads that turn into sales.

“We would consider that a borderline kickback,” Michael Jay Wolfe, president of Midboro Management, a large building management company told the newspaper. “I mean, what are they going to be selling next, Tupperware? They work for the building. They’re not an agent for anybody else.”

Others object to a clause requiring them to “identify, discourage and report” signal theft or equipment tampering, effectively spying on tenants.

Another reason some are balking is Time Warner’s insistence on a signed W-9 tax form, which includes the recipients’ Social Security number. In return, to comply with federal law, the cable company must issue an IRS Form 1099-MISC to all individuals that receive courtesy services worth $600 or more in a calendar year. In other words, the IRS is going to know the identities of those getting compensated with free cable service, which may have tax implications, making the service no longer free in the eyes of the tax man.

Ziggy Chau, a spokeswoman for Time Warner Cable defended the program saying it was intended to help customers.

“If there are service issues, customers want those issues fixed yesterday,” said Chau. “The people in these programs, they’re not going to do it for free. We’re building a good relationship.”

Some real estate workers are refusing to sign the new agreements and losing free cable as a result.