Wall Street is encouraging Verizon Communications to sell off its landline telephone operations to clear a path for a potentially-profitable merger with British mobile phone company Vodafone Group Plc.

Analysts at Goldman Sachs Group are behind the research report, which suggests Verizon’s recent non-aggression treaty with Comcast and Time Warner Cable makes the sale of Verizon’s landline phone and FiOS fiber to the home network more likely. Verizon will earn a percentage of every cable TV/phone/broadband subscription sold, effectively making Verizon’s own wired network redundant. Potential buyers could include Frontier Communications, CenturyLink, or Windstream, which all have business plans that depend on landline networks fewer Americans are using.

Should Verizon clear away its legacy landline and FiOS networks, Goldman Sachs suggests, a merger with Vodafone would be a “clear fit” for the two companies.

“The remaining wireless and enterprise businesses would have faster growth and a clear fit with Vodafone’s assets and strategy, making it a more attractive merger partner,” Bloomberg News quotes from the report.

“Given that it no longer faces the threat of integrated cable competitors, Verizon could potentially spin off its remaining [landline] assets,” along with “large” pension and benefit liabilities, the Goldman analysts added.

Verizon would also eliminate its ongoing dispute with the two largest unions representing its landline workers — Communications Workers of America and the International Brotherhood of Electrical Workers.  Both unions are still trying to negotiate a new contract with Verizon after a brief, but contentious, summer strike. Verizon Wireless is almost entirely non-unionized.

Vodafone’s share price has been rising recently, perhaps anticipating a potential merger that would give Vodafone a stronger hand in the U.S. marketplace.

Verizon’s investment in its landline network, along with interest in expanding its well-regarded FiOS fiber to the home service, has remained stalled for the past few years.  Recently, the company indicated an interest in moving away from fiber optics to serve broadband customers, and rely on its wireless LTE 4G network instead.

Verizon’s new CEO Lowell McAdam comes from Verizon’s wireless division, and has not shared his predecessor’s enthusiasm for fiber upgrades.

Merger Partner?

While the prospect of an all-wireless future for Verizon may seem good for shareholders, consumers are likely to pay the price:

1. The Justice Department is reviewing the antitrust implications of the non-aggression treaty between Verizon and its cable competitors;
2. The sale of Verizon’s landline network to an independent provider could doom the company’s fiber optic network and limit rural Verizon customers to 1-3Mbps DSL;
3. Verizon Wireless’ prices reflect its market share and lack of strong competition.  The company’s LTE wireless network, although fast, has suffered from reliability problems and is heavily usage-limited.  It may prove unsuitable as a home broadband replacement for rural customers;
4. Reduced competition for telephone, video, and broadband will likely result in higher prices for existing cable subscribers, too.

Verizon is hardly the first phone company to ponder getting out of the phone business.  AT&T has been lobbying to rescind rural universal service requirements for years.  If successful, AT&T could abandon its rural landline network and provide customers with higher-priced cell phone service instead.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CWA Parody of Verizon Video.flv[/flv]

Verizon’s unionized workers are still fighting for a new contract, and released this parody video in response to a company-produced DVD mailed to union workers’ homes.  (3 minutes)

At a time when cable television rates continue to spiral upwards in excess of the rate of inflation, Time Warner Cable’s interest in spending several billion dollars to acquire a professional baseball team seems strange.

The Los Angeles Times reports the cable giant is considering buying the Los Angeles Dodgers at a price that could exceed $2 billion.  It would compliment two new regional sports cable channels Time Warner plans to launch in southern California featuring the Los Angeles Lakers.

Time Warner Cable Sports president David Rone confirmed the cable company has a strong interest in carrying the Dodger games.  Purchasing the team outright could be much easier (and eventually cheaper) than negotiating against competing broadcasters and cable networks just to acquire the airing rights.

But at the same time customers are facing higher cable bills after the latest round of rate increases, it is ironic a cable operator complaining about programming costs and expenses would suddenly be willing to part with billions for a single baseball team.  For New York sports fans coping with the loss of MSG, sports programming Time Warner calls too expensive, it could prove counter-productive to complain about the cost of sports on the east coast while considering a $2+ billion purchase out west.

Liu

While Buffalo residents fume about missing the latest matchup between the Buffalo Sabres and Edmonton Oilers, the city of New York is pressuring Time Warner Cable to start compensating their subscribers for the loss of one of the most expensive channels on the basic cable dial.

New York City Comptroller John Liu has asked the Department of Information Technology and Telecommunications, which oversees cable franchise agreements for the city, to make certain Time Warner compensates customers for the loss of MSG and MSG Plus, both removed over a contract renewal dispute.

“Consumers deserve to be compensated for what they have gone through as a result of this dispute, plain and simple,” Mike Loughran, a spokesman for Liu, told Bloomberg News in an e-mail. Loughran said the comptroller’s office would discuss compensation plans with the Department of Information Technology and Telecommunications.

Time Warner says it has already effectively compensated impacted customers, primarily in New York State, with a free month of the company’s added-cost sports programming tier.  Time Warner has also replaced the two MSG networks with NBA TV and NHL Network, which are now likely to remain part of the basic package even if Time Warner reaches an agreement with MSG.  (Sorry football fans, NFL Network is still too costly to be deemed a suitable replacement network.)

Time Warner says there is no way they would pay MSG’s asking price for a renewed carriage contract, which the cable company says represented a 53% rate increase.

As Stop the Cap! reported earlier, the dispute is renewing rumblings about how pay television providers handle expensive sports programming.  An increasing number of cable executives are considering breaking sports networks out of the basic cable package and forcing interested sports fans to pay extra to receive them.  But sports remains a lightning rod issue for many pay TV companies, both among subscribers and politicians.  Disrupt a major sporting event at your peril — something Cablevision learned from an earlier dispute with Fox.

In Buffalo, some customers are dropping Time Warner Cable for Verizon FiOS, at least where that fiber to the home service is available.  Residents served by Frontier Communications or Verizon’s DSL have fewer choices — one of two satellite TV companies.

Verizon already carries a standard definition feed of MSG Networks.  AT&T announced this week it was adding MSG in HD to its U-verse lineup in Connecticut.  MSG has spent this week rubbing salt in Time Warner’s wounds, throwing MSG viewing parties in both Buffalo and New York City.  Now that the city of New York is pressuring Time Warner to cough up refunds as much as $4 or more a month for the loss of MSG, the dispute could prove increasingly expensive.  Some customers tell Stop the Cap! they are already receiving informal compensation for the loss of MSG after contacting the cable company by phone or e-mail to complain.

“I wrote Time Warner on their web contact form and a representative gave me a $5 courtesy credit for the loss of the channels after I explained I was shopping around for another provider,” writes Neil Thomowski who lives in Cheektowaga, near Buffalo.

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WNLO Buffalo Sabres fans dismayed by cable dispute 1-3-12.mp4[/flv]

Buffalo Sabres fans who have Time Warner Cable were left in the dark Tuesday night and couldn’t watch the match-up between the Sabres and the Edmonton Oilers.  WNLO in Buffalo has the story.  (2 minutes)

Static isn't just for the UHF dial, it's for powerhouse lobbying groups, too.

While surface reporting on “white space” broadband and “super Wi-Fi” seem to suggest the United States is on the cusp of opening up much of the UHF television dial to wireless broadband, behind the scenes broadband advocates are fretting about being outmaneuvered by the powerful broadcast lobby.  The theory behind “white space” broadband seems simple enough.  Anyone who has flipped channels up and down the UHF dial sees a lot of unused real estate.  While most cities receive 5-10 UHF TV channels, there are dozens of apparently empty channels filled with what seems to be nothing at all. Can’t we make more efficient use of the UHF dial and open the excess to other uses?

The FCC has been studying just that, with the proposition that broadcasters could be relocated closer together or agree to sell their broadcast license and sign off the air for good.  Theoretically, the UHF dial would be reduced to channels 14-30.  Stations on channels 31-51 would have to relocate down the dial to make way for broadband.

That was the plan anyway

Naturally, the National Association of Broadcasters (NAB), the broadcast industry lobbying group, was not happy to learn of this plan, which is still heavily promoted by wireless telecommunications companies.  They quickly argued there were not enough UHF channels left to accommodate every TV station on the air today, and some cities bordering Canada faced losing major stations if the plan was adopted.

In the clash of the lobbying titans, it appears broadcasters have at least temporarily won the upper hand.  Legislation authored by the powerful House Communications Subcommittee Chairman Greg Walden (R-Ore.), would grant the FCC authority to conduct spectrum horse-trading and auctions, but only if the sales take “all reasonable efforts to preserve” the coverage area of impacted broadcast stations.

In the minds of several wireless broadband advocates, “reasonable efforts” kills it. That key passage is open to wide interpretation, which in Beltway language means a full employment program for Washington law firms who will end up letting a judge decide what “reasonable” really means.

Blair Levin

Blair Levin, an attorney who served as chief of staff to FCC Chairman Reed Hundt from 1993 to 1997, where he oversaw the implementation of the disastrous 1996 Telecom Act, is all sour grapes about the latest developments in Congress.  That is to be expected — he was once considered the Obama Administration’s chief “broadband czar.”

“The legislation ties the FCC’s hands in a variety of ways,” Levin tells TVNewsCheck. “It opens it up to litigation risk, which then, in conjunction with the other handcuffs, makes it difficult to pull off a successful auction. The nature of the bill dramatically increases the probability that there will be less spectrum recovered and less money for the [U.S.] Treasury.”

Broadcasters have been legitimately worried about where they might fit within the new, slimmed-down UHF dial.  The more broadcasters packed closer together, the greater the chance of interference and reduced signal coverage for those who happen to live between two cities sharing the same channel number.  The NAB has consistently opposed forcing station-owners’ hands and wants stations compensated for their costs and inconvenience.

Before the first “white space” broadband signal takes to the airwaves, the government will have to set aside at least $3 billion to defray expenses incurred by television stations moving down the dial.  With language that guarantees broadcasters won’t have to suffer from an interference nightmare, FCC engineers will have a much harder time finding enough channels for the number of stations that need to move.  That could mean fewer channel positions up for auction.

Blair believes stations can extract even more by playing the litigation threat card.

“Nobody wants to go to an auction when there is the threat of a judge anywhere having the ability of holding it up,” Blair said. “I believe a good lawyer could find a way to get the question of  whether the FCC took all reasonable efforts in front of a judge. If you are designing the auction and a big law firm shows up and says, ‘If you don’t take care of my single broadcaster, we are going to find a way to get to court.’ That’s a real threat.’’

The Lady Gaga problem

Lady Gaga's wireless microphone malfunction.

Assuming Washington can fling enough cash to soothe the nerves of worried broadcasters, impediments to white space broadband don’t stop with the local Fox station.  The next complication is the wireless microphone issue.  When you see Lady Gaga in her latest outrageous outfit, you probably are not noticing her wireless microphone.  Performers of all kinds use these low power devices that often work over unused UHF spectrum.  Only it may not be unused for long.

Spectrum Bridge, a “white space” database administrator charged with coordinating who is using what frequency for what purpose, understands the challenges of trying to keep track of TV reporters, bands on tour, and other wireless microphone users, who all expect an interference-free experience.  Electric companies and municipalities also plan to utilize white space spectrum to manage smart city and smart grid communications.  A year later, Super Wi-Fi applications that deliver longer distance Wi-Fi service are expected to arrive.

It’s becoming a crowded neighborhood.

Congress’ NAB-friendly, Republican-sponsored bill may be modified substantially in a Democratic-controlled Senate, and there is still plenty of time for lobbyists to work their magic.  But it’s safe to say that those who have waited at least seven years for white space broadband to become a reality will have to wait a little longer.

While you ponder Verizon Wireless’ latest LTE 4G outage or try to convince yourself Sprint really is selling “4G” service from Clearwire, South Korea’s Sunkyoung Telecom (SK Telecom) is deploying new technology to enormously boost wireless Internet speeds to as high as 100Mbps.

SK Telecom has developed new Heterogeneous Network Integration Solution (HNIS) technology that weds 3G/4G service with any open Wi-Fi network to deliver speeds many times faster than North Americans can get from their wireless providers.  The technology is designed to work without a lot of consumer intervention.  For example, HNIS will automatically provision open Wi-Fi access wherever subscribers travel.  The combination of mobile broadband with Wi-Fi works seamlessly as well.  Currently, smartphones can use Wi-Fi or mobile data, but not both at the same time.  HNIS changes that.

While mobile operators cope with spectrum and capacity issues, HNIS can reduce the load on wireless networks, without creating a hassle for wireless customers who used to register with every Wi-Fi service they encountered.  The theoretical speed of an HNIS-enhanced 3G and Wi-Fi connection in South Korea will be 60Mbps when SK Telecom fully deploys the technology this year.  As SK expands the technology to its 4G networks, theoretical maximum speeds will increase to 100Mbps.

SK is so confident in the technology, it plans to equip all of its smartphones with the new technology starting in 2013.

Byun Jae-Woan, CTO of SK Telecom said, “SK Telecom will provide customers with a data service of much greater speed with Heterogeneous Network Integration Solution, which represents one of the company’s world’s top-level network operation technologies. By realizing the speed of fixed-line services with wireless networks, SK Telecom will allow its customers to experience a new and innovative mobile life.”

Operators like AT&T are installing their own Wi-Fi hotspots in heavy use areas to try and offload data traffic to Wi-Fi.  But customers have to make the connection themselves. HNIS quietly handles this process in the background while staying in touch with SK’s 3G and 4G networks to maintain a consistent data connection.