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Wall Street: We Expect Time Warner’s Usage Based Billing to Become the Rule, Not the Exception

Phillip Dampier February 29, 2012 Broadband "Shortage", Consumer News, Data Caps, Online Video 7 Comments

Moffett

On the heels of Time Warner Cable’s recently announced return to usage-based billing, some Wall Street analysts are sending signals they expect the cable operator not to dabble in usage-based pricing for long, but rather jump right in, charging all of their customers usage fees to boost revenue and profits.

Time Warner Cable’s careful effort to position usage pricing as an “option” does not seem to impress Sanford Bernstein’s Craig Moffett, who expects the cable company to roll out Internet Overcharging schemes to all of their customers.

“Over a period of years, as the market becomes more accustomed to (usage-based pricing), we expect these plans to become the rule rather than the exception,” Moffett wrote in a research note to his investor clients.

The concept of usage pricing is also provoking Netflix, dubbed one of the net’s biggest usage offenders by some providers, to become more vocal in its support for flat rate broadband.

With some Netflix movies coming in at nearly 3GB in high definition, Time Warner’s usage-limited Internet Essentials customers will rapidly erode their usage cap into the overlimit territory.

Netflix executives dismiss provider claims that broadband traffic explosions are undermining profits, especially considering the cost of delivering broadband traffic to consumers continues to plummet.

One Wall Street analyst looking to maximize those provider profits chastised Reed Hastings, founder of Netflix, for putting service providers under “financial pressure.”

“Yeah, that 92% Comcast operating margin is really under a lot of pressure,” Hastings responded at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Media and Telecom conference in San Francisco. “There is no financial pressure on ISPs.”

Variety reports Time Warner has said nothing about keeping flat rate broadband at its current $40-50 price point.

Moffett points out there is plenty of room for Time Warner Cable to accustom subscribers to a metered future. 

The analyst believes Time Warner will eventually move flat rate Internet to an “ultra premium” price point that will be far more expensive than customers today are accustomed to paying.

In 2009, Time Warner offered customers scheduled to participate in its failed usage pricing experiment flat rate service for $150 a month.

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Comcast Applauds Time Warner for Trying Usage Billing; Not Brave Enough to Try Themselves

Phillip Dampier February 29, 2012 Comcast/Xfinity, Consumer News, Data Caps 4 Comments

Angelakis

Comcast says it admires Time Warner Cable for risking subscriber wrath over plans to introduce usage-based billing Time Warner says will be optional for customers in southern Texas.  But Comcast admits it is not brave enough to try similar pricing schemes themselves, fearing a customer backlash.

“We have a very high customer satisfaction rating and we don’t really want to rock the boat on [our broadband product],” Comcast chief financial officer Michael Angelakis told an audience Tuesday at a Wall Street bank-sponsored media and telecom conference in San Francisco. “I give them credit for trying different things, [but] we have real momentum in that business and the goal is to keep it.”

Comcast was a spectator of the consumer and political backlash against Time Warner Cable when it last experimented with usage pricing in April 2009.  Within two weeks, Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt shelved the plan under pressure from both customers and lawmakers.

Now Time Warner Cable wants to reintroduce the concept as an option for customers of a new “Internet Essentials” discounted broadband tier that would include a $5 monthly discount if customers kept usage under 5GB per month.

Some veterans of the 2009 battle suspect Time Warner is trying to slowly slip usage pricing past customers waiting to fight its return by first suggesting it is only an option, but later herding broadband customers into usage based plans by substantially raising the price of flat rate service.

“Looks like a trial run the company could easily expand to all of their Internet customers,” shares Stop the Cap! reader Jeff in San Antonio, Tex., one of the cities that will participate in the upcoming usage-based plan. “I have a hard time believing Time Warner is going through all the effort developing usage meters and billing support for usage pricing just to market a handful of customers a $5 discount.”

Jeff, who helped fend off the cable company’s original Internet Overcharging experiment in 2009, suspects Time Warner’s earlier attempt to market a “flat rate” broadband option at $150 a month could still be a blueprint for how the company could push customers out of their unlimited plans.

“They can claim they want to keep unlimited Internet, but have remained silent about how much they will charge for it,” Jeff says. “We need something in writing that this company will not gouge customers with the fine print going forward.”

Stop the Cap! posed several similar questions to Time Warner Cable’s Jeff Simmermon, director of digital communications, through the cable company’s blog.  The company, to date, has offered no response.

Mobile Phone Companies Seek to Curtail Free Text/Calling Alternatives

Phillip Dampier February 29, 2012 Competition, Consumer News, Wireless Broadband Comments Off on Mobile Phone Companies Seek to Curtail Free Text/Calling Alternatives

As wireless carriers watch their revenues from texting and calling begin to decline as consumers increasingly turn to third-party applications that offer free alternatives, some companies are striking back.

Vodafone Group (part owner of Verizon Wireless) and Deutsche Telekom (owner of T-Mobile USA) are introducing new instant messaging applications this summer that will directly confront free services offered by Google and third party providers like WhatsApp.

Operators have already lost nearly $14 billion is text/SMS revenue in 2011 as subscribers shut off lucrative texting and messaging plans, according to Ovum, a mobile market researcher.

The companies blame messaging competitors like WhatsApp, Apple and Skype for the loss of that revenue and will confront them with the launch of Joyn, a new service that will offer a suite of features such as instant messaging and video-calling.  Joyn will quickly achieve prominence as carriers intend to automatically install the application on smartphones as the service launches.

Joyn will first be offered in Spain and Germany, and possibly also eastern Europe.  But providers expect to expand the service to North America if the initial launch is successful.

In Europe, Vodafone already bans Skype calls that travel over the company’s data network unless customers pay an additional charge.  Deutsche Telekom blocks these external services for customers in the United Kingdom altogether.  In the United States, Verizon Wireless routes domestic Skype calls over Verizon’s network.

KPN, the largest mobile phone company in the Netherlands, summed up providers’ attitudes about third-party apps and services bypassing the company’s own services by raising rates on smartphone customers to win back the revenue they lost.

“You can’t just have free services,” Deutsche Telekom’s Kobus Smit told Bloomberg News. “Because who is going to pay for it.”

Cablevision Capitulates on New Customer Promos; Verizon FiOS’ Price Slashing Really Hurt

Phillip Dampier February 28, 2012 Broadband Speed, Cablevision (see Altice USA), Competition, Consumer News Comments Off on Cablevision Capitulates on New Customer Promos; Verizon FiOS’ Price Slashing Really Hurt

The cable company best known for serving suburban New York City.

Cablevision Industries has cried “uncle” in light of relentlessly aggressive competition from Verizon Communications, which offers its fiber to the home FiOS service in much of the cable operator’s service area.

Cablevision’s 4th quarter and year-end financial results, reported earlier today, are underwhelming investors.  Cablevision executives warned the company will have lower cash flow in 2012 due to increased investments in set-top boxes, network upgrades, and more importantly — no planned subscriber rate increases this year.

Some highlights:

Video – Losing Customers Like Everyone Else: Cablevision lost 14,000 video customers in the last quarter, many to Verizon FiOS and ongoing cord-cutting.  Analysts expected just 9,000 defections.  Cablevision will soon launch both HBO and Max Go online video for their customers nationwide.  Additional on-demand video options, online and off, are also anticipated.

Broadband – Cablevision finally admitted its own network was responsible for last year’s faltering broadband speeds that delivered poor marks in ongoing FCC speed tests.  The company originally denied the speed test results were accurate.  Today CEO James Dolan told investors the company invested in its broadband network to improve speeds and service.  Cablevision feels strongly it must compete effectively with Verizon to survive.  The company added 20,000 high-speed data customers and 31,000 phone subscribers in the quarter.  The company is doing well allowing customers easy access to broadband speed upgrades.

Wi-Fi – Cablevision sees strong value in its wireless broadband network as customers increasingly take their content mobile and need connectivity to the web.

Upgrades – CEO Jim Dolan said 2012 will be “a year of investment” in Cablevision upgrades and improvements.  The company is even accelerating projects originally envisioned for 2013.  Cablevision will continue to expand its “next day” installation offer across the eastern United States by the end of the first quarter.

Promotions – The escalating war of promotions between Verizon and Cablevision are likely to cease as Cablevision yanks their most aggressive new customer offers.  Earlier this year, Verizon was pitching a two year triple play offer that included an incredible $500 prepaid card rebate as part of the promotion.  “I don’t think you’ll see those [low introductory rates from Cablevision] again ever,” said Dolan.

“The main theme that people should take away from the call today is that we continue to be focused on moving the business in a direction where we both retain existing subscribers and have attractive, economically sensible offers for new subscribers,” said Cablevision chief financial officer Gregg Seibert.

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