Back in 2006, Alaska Senator Ted Stevens emphatically declared that the Internet was not a truck, but rather a series of tubes.  That’s why Net Neutrality was such a bad idea, get it?

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Senator Ted Stevens Infamous “Series of Tubes” Speech from 2006.  (11 minutes)

Fundamentally misunderstanding technology and the Internet is not exclusively the domain of an ex-senator from the State of Palin, however.

North Carolina State Senator David Hoyle (D-Gaston County) managed to illustrate he didn’t know what he was talking about either.

Hoyle’s pretzel-like logic, in opposing municipal fiber broadband projects in the state, is that fiber optics could be obsolete within five years, so we shouldn’t even bother with them:

“You know the technology’s changing daily. Five years, ten years from now … wireless could replace most of fiber optics of coaxial cable or, or copper even. Might become not totally obsolete, but their ability to, uh, you know, to fund the debt service from the hard assets they had to put into the ground.”

If one extends that reasoning to his good friends in the cable and telephone industry — if fiber is potentially obsolete in five years, what about the phone company’s copper wires and the cable company’s coax?  Copper wiring was used for telegraphy starting in the 1830s and is still the backbone of today’s telephone networks.  Coaxial cable was invented in 1880 and still runs into virtually every cable subscriber’s home.  The first commercial application for a fiber optic communications system came in 1977.  In fact, most experts believe fiber optics will be the platform for America’s telecommunications network for at least the next quarter century.  The cable industry promotes its own use of fiber, and forward thinking phone companies like Verizon are relying on fiber to the home networks to stay relevant for the future.

Sen. David Hoyle (D-NC)

Fiber optic has all of the advantages:

• SPEED: Fiber optic networks operate at high speeds – up into the gigabits and still rising
• BANDWIDTH: large carrying capacity, and growing larger as advances continue
• DISTANCE: Signals can be transmitted further without needing to be “refreshed” or strengthened.
• RESISTANCE: Greater resistance to electromagnetic noise such as radios, motors or other nearby cables.
• MAINTENANCE: Fiber optic cables costs much less to maintain, and upgrades can occur without disturbing existing cable — just switch the laser technology used.

The costs to construct fiber networks, which used to be in the thousands of dollars per household, is now well under $1,000 for companies like Verizon.  Keeping happy customers and having the ability to market phone, broadband, and television services across an all-fiber network open new revenue streams which help defray initial expenses.  Fiber is an investment in the future.

Why isn’t wireless going to make fiber networks obsolete?

Allocating sufficient spectrum to support today’s high bandwidth applications is a practical impossibility, especially considering the politics and in-fighting from current spectrum holders to keep their allocations.  Spectrum is a limited resource, which guarantees limited competition, limited bandwidth, and higher prices.  While wireless applications will continue to be an important part of our communications future, it is unlikely they’ll be the favored method to support high bandwidth content in the near term.  Considering the implications of all of the new cell sites required to provide blanket coverage, it may never survive the inevitable howls of protest from neighborhoods who have to live with the eyesores.

Senator Hoyle opened his mouth and stupid fell out.  He’s not just wrong — his comments also carry implications for his constituents.

The City of Gastonia, along with Gaston County jointly filed an application alongside 35 others here in North Carolina seeking to get Google’s 1 Gigabit Fiber Optic to the Home Network.

How do city officials feel about their representative in the state legislature actively trashing fiber networks?  I will have that answer for you soon.

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Senator David Hoyle (foreground, with back to camera) tells meeting fiber could be obsolete within five years.  (25 seconds)

Today’s merger between CenturyTel (soon to be CenturyLink) and Qwest will combine 10 million Qwest customers and 7 million from CenturyTel into a single company serving 37 states in every region of the country except the northeast and much of California and Nevada.  CenturyLink gains access to Qwest’s highly valued portfolio of services sold to business customers and Qwest gets a partner that can help manage its $11.8 billion debt and help grow the last remaining Baby Bell, formerly known as US West, into a national player capable of withstanding ongoing erosion of landline service.

The deal will impact consumers and businesses, and will challenge regulatory authorities to consider the implications of ongoing consolidation in the traditional telephone service marketplace.  It brings implications for broadband service strategies for both companies, which we’ll explore in greater detail.

Breaking Up Was Too Hard to Do, So Let’s Put It Back Together

Ultimately, the genesis of this, and most of the other big telecom deals that we’ve witnessed over the past few years comes from the 1996 Communications Act, which deregulated large parts of the telecommunications industry and triggered a massive wave of consolidation that is still ongoing.  That legislation was the antithesis of the 1984 court ruling which ultimately led to the breakup of AT&T and the Bell System monopoly in 1984.  When President Clinton signed the 1996 bill into law, it allowed much of the Bell System to eventually recombine into two major entities:

• AT&T ultimately pieced itself back together with the acquisitions of:

BellSouth — serving the southeastern United States

Ameritech — serving the upper Midwest

SBC/Southwestern Bell — serving Texas and several southern prairie states

Pacific Telesis — serving California and Nevada

• Verizon became a regional powerhouse by combining:

NYNEX — serving New England and New York

Bell Atlantic — serving mid-Atlantic states

Qwest Tower - Denver

The remaining orphaned Baby Bell was US West, which comprised Mountain Bell serving the Rocky Mountain states, Northwestern Bell which covered the Dakotas, Minnesota, the prairie states not covered by SBC, and Pacific Northwest Bell which managed service for Oregon, Washington, and northern Idaho.  US West was subjected to a hostile takeover in 2000 by an upstart telecommunications company that was laying fiber optic cable in the late 1990s alongside the railways its owner, Philip Anschutz, also happened to own.  Qwest assumed control of US West that summer and rechristened it with its own name.  Owned by a Bell outsider, Qwest has always been the company that didn’t quite fit with the rest.

The company gained respect for its enormous fiber backbone that weaves across many American cities, including several in the northeast.  It is best known for its services to business customers.  On the residential side, the story is less impressive.  The company’s customer service record is spotty and the company has accumulated an enormous amount of legacy debt left over from earlier acquisitions.  Despite the company’s repeated efforts to find a partner, it took until today for it to finally find one.  There are several reasons for this:

1. Qwest’s service area is notoriously rural and expensive to serve.  Outside of its corporate headquarters in Denver, the majority of its service area is either mountainous or rural.  Even today, Qwest serves only 10 million residential customers, almost matched by CenturyTel’s own seven million largely rural customers scattered across the country.
2. Qwest’s history has been littered with financial scandals, starting with a series of deals with disgraced Enron from 1999-2001.  That was followed with charges of fraud and insider trading in 2005.
3. Qwest does not own its own wireless division and its previous efforts to deliver television service to customers were largely unsuccessful.  That made Qwest’s ability to withstand erosion in its core business – landline phone service, more difficult.
4. Qwest’s debt is downright frightening for would-be suitors.

Why Does CenturyTel Want to Buy Qwest?

CenturyTel claims such a transaction allows a combined company to become a larger player on the national scene.  By combining Qwest’s good reputation in the business telecommunications sector with combined efforts to deliver broadband products including high speed Internet, the company thinks the combination can’t be beat.  CenturyTel envisions packages of video entertainment, data hosting and managed services, as well as fiber to cell tower connectivity and other high bandwidth services to deliver replacement revenue lost from disconnected landlines.  It also believes it can realize cost savings from the merger and keep the company relevant on a stage dominated by Verizon, AT&T, and a few large cable companies.

But there are other reasons.  For the three super-sized independent phone companies that Americans are growing increasingly familiar with — Frontier Communications, Windstream Communications, and CenturyTel, their business models depend on their ability to constantly engage in deal-making and acquisitions.  All three companies have built their businesses on investors who see their stocks as “investment grade” financial instruments that dependably return a dividend back to shareholders.  As we’ve seen in countless quarterly financial results conference calls, all three companies are preoccupied answering questions from Wall Street about the all-important dividend.  TV personalities like Jim Cramer has specifically recommended these telecom stocks based, in part, on their dividend payout.  If that dividend dramatically shrunk or stopped, the share price for all three stocks would likely plummet.

One of the side effects of companies dependent on dividend payouts is their constant need to be on the lookout for additional merger and acquisition opportunities.  Here’s how it works.  Let’s say CenturyTel’s debt load and reduced revenue, caused by customer defections to cell phones or cable phone service, delivered a bad fiscal quarter for the company.  Cash flow was down, and company officials simply couldn’t keep the dividend payout at the same level as the previous quarter.  Since many people hold CenturyTel stock specifically because of the dividend, a downward turn in that payout could cause some to sell their shares, driving the stock price downwards.

CenturyTel is still digesting a previous merger with EMBARQ, which led it to rechristen the company CenturyLink

One way around this is to seek out a new merger or acquisition target.  By bringing two companies together, preferably one with a healthy cash flow, suddenly the big picture changes.  Your balance sheet now reflects the combined revenue from both companies, which incidentally makes the percentage of debt versus revenue look a lot healthier.  Cash flow immediately improves, especially if you can slash redundant costs.  Come next quarter, that dividend payout is right back up in healthy territory.

Sometimes companies become so preoccupied with their dividend and corresponding stock price, it can lead them to pay out more in dividends than a company earns in revenue.  While that’s great for investors, it is unsustainable in the long run.

Many critics of telecommunications companies employing this strategy claim it’s evidence that a company is biding time and unwilling to invest in innovation for the future.  Some also believe dividend payouts shortchange customers because they can eventually bleed a company’s ability to invest in service improvements, research and development, and capital investments to maintain their network and expand service.

As consolidation continues, the number of new buyout opportunities begins to shrink, and one shudders to think what happens when there is no one else to buy.  How long is this business model sustainable?

Both CenturyTel and Qwest also recognize the impact of ongoing disconnections from landline service, now averaging 10 percent of their customers a year.  Those departing customers are now relying on their cell phones or alternative calling services like cable company “digital phone” service or broadband-based calling from companies like Vonage or Skype.

The one service they hope can stem customer defections is broadband.  Unfortunately, telephone companies are increasingly losing ground against their cable modem competitors, who have an easier time increasing broadband speeds for customers now seeking online video and other high bandwidth applications.

Of course, one of the benefits of being a “rural phone company” is the fact cable competition is often unlikely.  In fact, some of the lowest erosion rates for landline service are in rural communities where the telephone company is the only game in town.  There is plenty of money still to be made offering high priced slow speed DSL service in communities with no cable competitor and spotty wireless broadband that is often slower and usage-limited.

All three of these big independent players are well aware of this, and maintaining a strong position in relatively slow speed DSL service also protects another revenue stream — Universal Service Fund revenue given to rural providers to equalize telephone rates.  CenturyTel recognizes the increasing likelihood much of that money will be diverted to stimulating broadband expansion, something the phone company is more than willing to do if it means preserving their subsidies.

The new combined Qwest-CenturyTel company hopes the merger can help both survive obsolescence.

For Qwest, a debt reduction may make it possible to spend more to deliver fiber-to-the-curb service, similar to AT&T U-verse.  That could increase broadband speeds and prompt them to reconsider their earlier decision to abandon IPTV in the western half of the country.

CenturyTel can continue to offer traditional DSL service with a more incremental upgrade approach in its more rural service areas, but tap into Qwest’s fiber network to reduce backhaul expenses and potentially pick up new business customers by offering Qwest-branded business services.  Company officials strongly hinted that, at least for now, CenturyTel’s existing customers will continue to find the video portion of their “triple play” package delivered by DirecTV satellite service, so no IPTV for them.

CenturyTel and Qwest's combined local service areas

What Does This Mean for Employees of Both Companies?

Mergers like this always generate great excitement over “cost savings” made possible by the merger.  Much of these savings typically come from employee expenses.  When you hear “cost savings,” think layoffs and pay cuts for all but top management.  Based on past precedent, Qwest employees can anticipate some serious job losses if this transaction closes, especially in the business office.  The combined company will be henceforth known as CenturyLink, with headquarters remaining in Monroe, Louisiana.  That is potentially bad news for Qwest’s employees in Denver.

The transaction is expected to generate annual operating cost savings (which CenturyTel calls “synergies”) of approximately $575 million, which are expected to be fully realized three to five years following closing.  The transaction also is expected to generate annual capital expenditure “synergies” of approximately $50 million within the first two years after close.  That means spending less on infrastructure improvements.

Billing and customer service are traditionally handled by CenturyTel when a company joins the CenturyTel family.  North Carolina customers can attest to that as EMBARQ, an earlier CenturyTel target, finally moves to CenturyTel’s billing system in the coming weeks.

For the sake of pushing the merger through state regulatory agencies, cutbacks in unionized technicians who handle service installations, repairs, and maintain the lines are not expected.  The Communications Workers of America issued a statement today that mildly acknowledged the merger announcement, saying the union “looked forward to serious negotiations with both companies” regarding employment security and assurances of aggressive high speed broadband rollout throughout both companies’ territories.

How the combined CenturyTel-Qwest company stacks up against other independent phone companies. (Q-Qwest, CTL-CenturyTel, FTR-Frontier, WIN-Windstream)

What Does This Mean for Qwest and CenturyTel Customers?

In the short term, nothing.  This merger will take at least a year to complete, assuming regulatory approval in every state where a review is required by state officials.  In 2011, should the merger be approved, Qwest customers can anticipate transition headaches as the Denver-based company winds down operations in favor of CenturyTel.  Billing and customer service will both be impacted.  Long term plans for major projects are likely to be stalled until the merger settles into place.  CenturyTel business customers will eventually see Qwest’s strong business products line become available in many CenturyTel service areas.  Eventually, some larger CenturyTel-served cities may find Qwest’s more advanced DSL service arriving on the scene delivering faster speeds.

Although CenturyTel has hinted it may review whether it’s now large enough to operate its own wireless mobile division, for the near term, expect the partnership to resell Verizon Wireless service to continue.

What is the View of Stop the Cap! on the CenturyTel-Qwest Merger?

Generally speaking, most of the industry consolidation that has been fueled by a deregulatory framework established by the Clinton Administration has not benefited consumers anywhere near the level promised by deregulation advocates.  The three largest independent phone company consolidators — Frontier, Windstream, and CenturyTel are spending more time and resources looking for new acquisitions and schemes to pay out dividends than they are working to enhance service in their respective service areas.  Smaller independent phone companies are deploying fiber to the home networks and answer to the communities where they work and live.  From companies like Frontier, we get Internet Overcharging schemes combined with slow DSL service, tricks and traps from “price protection agreements” that automatically renew, rate increases, and cost cutting.  Windstream plagues some of their customers with extended service outages, and CenturyTel’s promised broadband speeds often don’t deliver.

Unfortunately, bigger is not always better in telecommunications.  While the biggest players like Verizon seek to discard rural American customers, getting one of these three companies instead doesn’t always represent progress.  Our regulators are too often satisfied with basic answers to questions about broadband and service improvements that come with few details and deadlines.  It is just as important to ask what kind of broadband service a company will bring, at what speeds and price, and what usage limits, if any, will accompany the service.

Companies engaged in these mergers hope regulators don’t pin them down to specific service commitments and standards, which could harm the financial windfall these deals bring to a select few.  But they must be the first thing on the table, guaranteeing that customers also get the enjoy the “synergies” these deals are supposed to bring.

The implications of cable-TV cord cutting continue to be discussed on several newscasts airing around the country, prompted by an Arbitron study showing Americans are more willing to give up their televisions than forgo the Internet.

In Providence, Rhode Island WNAC-TV spent five minutes pondering life without cable, noticing younger people are increasingly not even bothering to sign up, preferring the convenience… and price of watching everything online for free.

WNAC-TV’s The Buzz suspects the days of “free” might be numbered, however.

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Make no mistake: The big cable, satellite, and telco carriers are still sitting pretty with more than 100 million TV subscribers. Nevertheless, a new report claims that more and more viewers are “cutting the cord” in favor of watching their favorite shows via over-the-air antennas (remember those?), Netflix, or the Web. (5 minutes)

A survey released this week by Arbitron Inc. and Edison Media Research found, for the first time, that Americans are more willing to give up TV than the Internet.

Asked to choose the ”most essential” medium, 42 percent of the survey’s 1,753 respondents picked the Internet, 37 percent picked TV, 14 percent said radio and 5 percent said those dead-tree format newspapers.

That represents more evidence that major telecommunications companies will need to lasso control of the Internet before the cable television profit train derails.  That’s because the Internet delivers the prospect of a two-for-one deal.  Enjoy your online web surfing -and- stream your favorite television shows online at the same time — no more ever-increasing cable-TV bill for channels you never asked for and don’t watch.

Even more worrying for big cable — young people are increasingly never bothering to sign up for cable television in the first place.  In the 18-24 age group, 74 percent said they would quit TV before surrendering the Web, and many never bothered with subscription television to begin with.

The last time Arbitron and Edison posed this question in a survey was in 2001, back when dial-up access still predominated.  Back then, 72 percent of respondents said they could do without Internet and 26 percent said they’d give up TV.

“The shift over these nine years has been steady and profound,” said Edison Research president Larry Rosin.

Some consumers don’t want to watch television over their computers and would prefer to be entertained in a comfortable chair in the living room.  But Internet video innovation is increasingly solving that problem by coupling your television or DVD player to the web.  Several providers like Netflix even deliver their streaming video service through video game consoles.

How do cable companies stop the herd mentality to broadband video, leaving those big cable TV bills behind?  Stick a meter on broadband service, and charge consumers for every TV show they watch or simply put a limit on their broadband service.  The broadband usage cap or meter can, indeed, kill the online video star.

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WJW-TV in Cleveland reports that more people are ready to ditch their televisions than being willing to part with their Internet connection.  (3 minutes)

In what some believe may be the beginning of the end of the U.S. Postal Service, the plan to eliminate Saturday mail delivery this week was formally introduced to the Postal Regulatory Commission, an important step on the journey to sever home delivery to homes and businesses over the weekend.

In what the Commission called one of the most significant changes the Postal Service has ever presented to them for review, the proposal to sack Saturday mail seeks to take a bite out of a deficit the post office claims will reach $238 billion in ten years.

As more Americans move to broadband for online banking and bill paying, e-mail, and online commerce, mail volume continues to decline.  The recession isn’t helping either, as increasing postal rates challenge the torrent of profitable junk mail that reaches every American home.

But one decidedly-digital company is cringing at the thought of losing Saturday mail delivery — Netflix, the DVD-rent-by-mail firm whose sea of red envelopes moving to and from post offices around the country is a bright spot for a postal service under financial siege.  This single company expects to spend $600 million in postage this year alone.

The prospect of Netflix customers facing several days in a row with nothing new to watch horrifies those who’ve become accustomed to Saturday DVD delivery.

Netflix has tried to move towards video streaming movies and television shows over broadband connections.  Last week Netflix began offering Nintendo Wii owners the opportunity to stream the company’s on-demand library directly through the video game console, joining the PS3.

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But Slate reports on-demand streaming at the prices studios are demanding means it will be a very long time before Netflix’s 100,000 title library is available for instant viewing:

While instantly streamed movies obviously eliminate postage costs, they are not a cost-free proposition for Netflix. Analysts suggest that the streaming technology itself is very cheap—it costs roughly five cents to stream 90 minutes of content—but the licensing fees can be exorbitant. Netflix won’t release the data on how much it pays for online licensing, but can apparently be quite expensive. Dan Rayburn, an analyst with Streaming Media, has said that he’s seen some streaming movies that cost as much as $4 per play.

The other potential skunk at the garden party is your Internet Service Provider, should they implement Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps or usage-based billing.  That five cent price tag for 90 minutes of content Netflix pays would be considerably higher from ISPs seeking to charge thousands of percent markup for bandwidth.

America’s social commentators are concerned five day delivery is the beginning of the end for an institution that reaches every American.

CNN contributor Bob Greene notes no business has ever gotten ahead in the long term by reducing service to customers even as they continue to increase prices:

If mail delivery goes from six days to five, more and more Americans may decide they just don’t need it. People have available to them, as none of us needs to be reminded, computers with e-mail capability. You can correspond with friends and family and business associates; you can pay bills; you can send greetings.

Using the U.S. mail already means accepting that letters will be held up for a day between Fridays and Mondays. Elimination of Saturday mail would extend the bottleneck. And this is a country that increasingly demands speed; you’d think that someone, if only in an effort not to fall further behind, would be suggesting a seventh day of delivery be added.

Last year, the volume of U.S. mail fell by 26 billion pieces — from 203 billion to 177 billion.

The Postal Service, in gambling that doing away with a day of delivery will help heal its financial wounds, may be risking a lot.

There’s not much of a track record in American business for cutting back on services and then seeing the long-term bottom line grow. Companies that boldly announce they are going to cut their way to prosperity often cut their way to death.

If delivery is reduced to five days, and the number of letters mailed each year plunges further, the Postal Service could find itself in the position of having to eliminate even more services. Five days could conceivably go to four, or three; and if that didn’t stop the plummet in available funds, what would be the next step?

The letter carriers’ union isn’t happy about it either.  They’re convinced the post office’s plan will never survive Congressional oversight, and that in the end Saturday delivery will survive.

“We don’t see this thing — despite the hoopla that the postal service management has come up with — being approved by Congress,” said Drew Von Bergen, chief spokesman for the union that represents about 200,000 mail carriers, and 100,000 retirees.

Von Bergen told a reporter for KCRG-TV the mail carriers union sees the proposal as an overreaction to the dramatic decline in mail volumes that has resulted from a deep recession. If the postal service cuts Saturday delivery now, it will accelerate the demise of the postal service as other delivery services take up the slack, and Americans become disaffected with mail delays.

“It’s not just delivery,” Von Bergen said. “It’s delivery and collection. You’re talking about a two-day stoppage of mail movement in this country: Prescriptions, DVDs, packages people ordered by mail.”

On holiday weekends, the mail would stop for three days, Von Bergen added.

The unions are convinced the source of the nightmarish budget deficits comes from one thing: health care funding for retirees.  The recent health care reform legislation passed by President Obama does almost nothing to address the relentless immediate increases in health care costs which the Post Office must pre-fund in a type of escrow account.  If the government eliminated the pre-funding requirement, the U.S. Post Office would have finished 2009 with a cumulative surplus of $3.7 billion over its last three fiscal years according to American Postal Workers Union President William Burrus.

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KESQ-TV in Palm Springs, California pondered the loss of Saturday mail delivery with area residents and mail carriers in this report that aired Monday evening.  (3 minutes)