A new research report issued by Time Warner Cable concludes cell phone companies like AT&T and Verizon Wireless cannot meet the future data demands of customers over their 4G LTE wireless networks without punitive usage caps and high fees to deter usage, even with new spectrum becoming available for the wireless industry’s use.

The report, authored by Michael Calabrese of the New America Foundation, finds an answer to this problem in Wi-Fi, which can offload wireless traffic and deliver wireless service customers already prefer:

There is simply not enough exclusively licensed spectrum to meet the rapidly rising demand for wireless data, to sustain a competitive market, and to keep prices at an affordable level.

Major mobile carriers are increasingly coming to grips with this reality. The Wireless Broadband Alliance, a global industry group, reports that Wi-Fi offloading has become an industry standard as “18 of the world’s top 20 largest telcos by revenue have now publicly committed to investing in deploying their own Wi-Fi Hotspot networks.” The industry is shifting steadily toward what it calls heterogeneous networks (HetNets)—i.e., a combination of licensed and unlicensed infrastructure—in order to meet their customers’ insatiable demand for data while keeping costs down.

Alcatel-Lucent forecasts an increase of “87 times [the current] daily traffic on wireless networks” over the next five years, with 50 percent of that traffic on cellular networks “while the remaining 50 percent will be offloaded to Wi-Fi.”

Cisco’s own studies back Calabrese’s findings on consumer preference towards Wi-Fi.

“Given a choice, more than 80 percent of tablet, laptop, and eReader owners would either prefer Wi-Fi to mobile access, or have no preference,” Cisco concluded. “And, just over half of smartphone owners would prefer to use Wi-Fi, or are ambivalent about the two access networks.”

The Cisco surveys found users are choosing Wi-Fi over mobile connectivity for reasons of cost, “because it doesn’t impose data-usage caps or reduce their mobile data plan quotas.” But the primary reason for choosing Wi-Fi “is that respondents find it much faster than mobile networks.” And since Wi-Fi traffic travels over increasingly upgraded wireline networks, that speed differential may only increase as more and more homes, businesses and retail outlets upgrade to fiber optic or other high-speed connections of 100Mbps or more.

America’s largest wireless carriers have fallen far behind offering Wi-Fi services to customers compared to their overseas colleagues:

• AT&T: More than 32,000 Wi-Fi hotspots are available at partnered retail businesses, restaurants, and high-traffic areas like stadiums and major tourist destinations;
• Verizon Wireless: Verizon has an insignificant Wi-Fi presence, with a small number of unadvertised hotspots in selected venues like airports and convention centers;
• Japan’s NTT DOCOMO: Up to 150,000 hotspots, up from only 8,400 in 2o12.
• China Mobile: More than 2 million hotspots are up and running carrying 70 percent of the company’s data traffic.
• France’s Free Mobile: More than 4 million residential hotspots are available through Free’s parent – Iliad.

Comcast could soon be the nation’s largest Wi-Fi hotspot provider.

Calabrese argues it is important for the United States to set aside significant spectrum for unlicensed wireless networks like Wi-Fi to meet future wireless demands. Currently, some Republican members of Congress are opposed to significant spectrum set asides they feel could best be monetized for private use through the spectrum auction process.

It is no coincidence that Calabrese’s findings would be released by Time Warner Cable which itself is growing a Wi-Fi presence in certain cities where it provides cable service.

The wireless carriers’ collective lack of interest in an aggressive nationwide Wi-Fi deployment may have provided a strategic opening for cable operators to fill that gap with Wi-Fi networks of their own. Cable operators consider them a useful tool to retain customer loyalty — access is typically free and unlimited for current customers.

This summer, Comcast announced a “neighborhood hotspot initiative” that will turn millions of customer cable Internet connections into shared Wi-Fi hotspots using a dual-use wireless home gateway. The equipment will offer two separate Wi-Fi signals — one intended for the customer and the other open for use by any Comcast customers in the neighborhood. The cable company will provision extra bandwidth for the open Wi-Fi network to ease concerns that guest users could theoretically slow down a customer’s own Wi-Fi channel. In a relatively short period, Comcast could become the nation’s biggest Wi-Fi network offering more than 20 million hotspots hosted by the company’s own broadband customers.

Calabrese points to the future of seamless transitions between wired, wireless 4G and Wi-Fi network access without dropping calls or data connections. Many customers won’t even know the difference.

The author recommends the FCC think about reserving space for new unlicensed “citizens band” frequencies dedicated for public and private Wi-Fi networks:

• The FCC should reorganize the UHF TV band to ensure the availability of at least 30 to 40MHz of unlicensed spectrum in every media market, perhaps including Channel 37 (now reserved for radio astronomy) and eliminating two dedicated channels reserved for wireless microphones;
• Open the grossly underutilized 3.5–3.7GHz federal band for unlicensed small cell antennas delivering a ‘Citizens Broadband Service.’ This band is now mostly used for offshore naval radar, allowing both services to co-exist without mutual interference;
• Expand unlicensed access to the 5GHz band by allocating the 5.35–5.47 and 5.85–5.925GHz bands providing contiguous, very wide channels useful for the 802.11ac Wi-Fi standard that can support very high-speed wireless services.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/XFINITY Wireless Gateway Powers Connected Home Summer 2013.flv[/flv]

Comcast talks about their new X3 Wireless Gateway which is capable of providing two separate Wi-Fi networks, one for the customer and another for the neighborhood. (2 minutes)

Time Warner Cable believes it has room to raise broadband prices and get away with it without much customer backlash.

The cable company’s chief financial officer, Arthur Minson, raised the prospect of more price hikes at Tuesday’s Goldman Sachs 22nd Annual Communacopia Conference.

“Look, the modem [fee] was really just a form of a High Speed Data rate increase,” Minson said, referring to the company’s introduction of a $4 cable modem rental fee last fall and a later increase to around $6 a month introduced this summer. “I do see an ability for us to continue to have ARPU increases on that product.”

“ARPU” refers to the Average Revenue Per User — a term that reflects what companies earn in revenue divided by the number of customers. In most cases, an ARPU increase comes from price hikes or customers subscribing to additional value-added services.

Minson

Minson suggested that the company’s gradual rollout of optional usage-based pricing tiers provides an alternative for price-sensitive customers that cannot afford rate increases on flat-rate service or are seeking a price reduction.

“I think we’re very pleased with where we are in the usage-based pricing front and I think that’s something we will continue,” Minson concluded. “I think over time it will be interesting to see how many people ultimately take the usage-based pricing, or will people say I just want to have unlimited and I think the market will speak on that.”

Time Warner Cable has focused investment on several fronts this year, and plans continued investments to expand offerings in these key areas:

1. Business broadband expansion. Some of the company’s biggest investments target wiring businesses and office parks for cable service, primarily to expand commercial broadband. “Commercial services is success-based capital that we see real meaningful returns on,” Minson said.
2. Wi-Fi expansion. Time Warner Cable will continue expanding Wi-Fi hotspots in select cities. Customers with Standard (15/1Mbps) service or above can use the service for free. Minson said that the company was very happy to offer customers subscribed to unlimited use tiers free access to Wi-Fi. Not so for those choosing usage-based pricing plans. They will have to upgrade to an unlimited plan to get free access. “That’s a real incentive to drive people into the higher tiers,” Minson noted.
3. DOCSIS 3.1. Time Warner plans to adopt and invest in DOCSIS 3.1 cable modem technology when it is officially released. DOCSIS 3.1 will offer more efficient broadband transport and will let companies offer even faster speeds. Minson noted that broadband is increasingly the company’s anchor product, so it will continue investments accordingly.

Customers looking for aggressive pricing won’t find much at Time Warner Cable. Minson noted the company will continue its year-long pullback on low-priced promotions.

“We have a $79 bundle out in the marketplace and you would say okay, that sounds similar to the offer in the marketplace last year,” Minson said. “It may be similar but in terms of what you get for that $79 it is very different from what we gave a year ago and what we have now is the ability to meaningfully up sell the customers from the beacon price.”

A year ago, Time Warner Cable didn’t have a modem rental fee and typically bundled its Standard tier Internet service in its promotional packages. A traditional triple-play package of phone, cable TV and Internet service starts at $89 today, but only includes 3Mbps broadband, doesn’t bundle DVR service, and doesn’t include a mandatory set-top box which now costs a minimum of $8.99 a month each. Combining the modem fee with the mandatory box charge raises the promotional price to $104.97 a month.

• Upgrading to Standard 15/1Mbps service costs an extra $10 a month.
• Adding a DVR? That costs an additional $21.94 a month.
• The “whole house” DVR package is now priced at $37.47 a month.
• Time Warner Cable has also recently increased the price of premium movie channels to a uniform $15.95 each for HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, and Starz.

Taking into account these popular upsold add-ons, the promotional price of $79-89 might be seen as bait and switch by some customers. The true cost for most choosing a triple play package including cable TV with DVR service, one set-top box, a Time Warner-supplied cable modem, and a speed upgrade to 15/1Mbps service is $127.92 a month before taxes and fees.

Customers unhappy with their cable bill who call to complain are now routed to specially trained retention operators, Minson said.

“We’ve taken about a 1,000 dedicated employees and focused them on retention and even within those centers there are areas of expertise,” Minson said. “For our Spanish language customers we have retention centers set-up to help them when they call in. For people who are coming off a promotional offer, we have dedicated reps who can deal with that group of customers. So it’s having a deeper set of expertise in those areas and the returns so far are well within our expectations and we are really pleased with how it’s going.”

TiVo Roamio DVR

The newest entry in the should-be-more-competitive world of Digital Video Recorders (DVRs) might have gotten five stars from reviewers willing to play down the device’s asking price, but the biggest hurdle of all isn’t its cost, it is the complexity of getting it to work properly with your cable provider.

TiVo’s new Roamio was designed to declutter your viewing experience. It’s a DVR that can record shows you missed, an online video device that can stream content from Netflix, Hulu Plus, Amazon Instant Video, Spotify, Pandora and YouTube right on your television, and perhaps most powerful of all — it will soon stream it all to you on any mobile device located anywhere there is an Internet connection.

That puts TiVo’s Roamio well ahead of the behind-the-times set-top boxes and DVRs rented out by the cable company. Customers have clamored for a device that can properly record scheduled programs and allow those recordings to be viewed anywhere the customer wants to watch. Comcast’s box doesn’t work that way. Neither do boxes from Time Warner Cable, Cox, Bright House, and the rest.

Cue the lawyers.

The reason these common sense portability features are not available on the box you rent in perpetuity from the cable company is that programmers won’t allow it and many pay television providers don’t consider it a priority. Time Warner Cable only recently filed a patent to deliver customer-recorded content to portable devices. The patent application is an exercise to placate litigious programmers that cannot sleep nights knowing someone is offering a service they failed to monetize for themselves through licensing agreements. Feel the legal fees piling up:

“Because of the increasing popularity of home networking, there is a growing need for a strategy that enables a user to perform authorized transfer of protected content, e.g., transferring content from an STT [set-top terminal] to a second device in a home network, and at the same time prevents unauthorized distribution of the protected content,” Time Warner writes in its patent application.

While TiVo is selling a device that allows consumers to record programming for private viewing purposes, a cable operator with deep pockets that only rents DVRs cannot do likewise.

The Roamio comes in three versions, none of which are compatible with satellite television services:

• Roamio Pro ($600): Six tuners allow customers to record up to six shows at one time and has storage capacity for 450 hours of HD programming. Includes built-in Wi-Fi. Stream TV to mobile iOS devices coming soon (as is Android support);
• Roamio Plus ($400): Same as above except storage capacity is 150 hours of HD programming;
  Roamio ($200): Four tuner basic version omits built-in streaming to mobile devices but can record four shows at once and store 75 hours of HD programming. A good choice for cord-cutters as it includes an over-the-air broadcast television antenna input.
• All Roamio devices require TiVo service, which costs $15 a month or $500 for a lifetime subscription. All boxes support external hard drives with an eSATA interface to backup or store more recordings. All Roamio devices support 1080p and Dolby Digital 5.1 sound.

This Comcast DVR is only available for rent.

In contrast, cable operator-provided DVR service can often add $20 a month to your cable bill… forever. But is there real value for money paying TiVo $15 a month (or a $500 payment for the life of the device) for “service” on top of hardware that can cost up to $600?

TiVo thinks so: “Once you bring together all your favorite shows, movies and music into one place, you’ll wonder how you ever lived without it.”

Unfortunately, getting there is one heck of a battle according to Bloomberg’s Rich Jaroslovsky, who got his hands on a test unit that simply refused to get along well with Comcast.

“The cable industry is standing in the way,” Jaroslovsky writes.

That may not be surprising, considering the lucrative business of renting DVR equipment to customers eager for time-shifting and commercial-skipping. The cable company’s concept of DVR service includes a set-top box, decoder, and recording unit into one, relatively simple integrated device.

TiVo’s persistent monthly “service fee” as well as a steep purchase price made marketing the cable company’s “no-purchase-required” DVR easy, and the cable industry quickly won the lion’s share of the DVR business. Another strong argument in favor of the cable company’s DVR is the lack of a complicated set up procedure to get competing devices to reliably work with the cable company’s set-top box.

Motorola’s M CableCARD

Thanks to Comcast and other cable companies, setting up Roamio managed to confound even a tech reporter like Jaroslovsky, and Comcast was not much help.

The Roamio requires a CableCARD, a plug-in card-sized version of the cable company’s set-top box, to unlock digital cable channels.

The CableCARD was Congress’ attempt in the 1996 Telecom Act to give consumers an option to avoid costly and unsightly set-top boxes. Originally envisioned as a plug-in device that would offer “cable-ready” service without a set-top box in future generations of televisions, the CableCARD never really took off. The cable industry opposed the devices and dragged its feet, preferring to support its own set-top boxes. The CableCARD that eventually did emerge was initially often difficult to obtain and had huge limitations, such as one-way-only access which meant no electronic program guide, no video-on-demand, and no access to anything that required two-way communications between the card and the cable company. Newer CableCARDs do offer two-way communications and support today’s advanced cable services.

The only place most cable operators mention the availability of the CableCARD in detail is in a federally mandated disclosure of pricing, services, and a consumer’s rights and responsibilities — usually provided in a rice-paper-thin, tiny-print leaflet included with your bill once a year, if you still get one in the mail.

Roamio is likely to frighten technophobes right from the start with this important notification:

CableCARDs are made by one of four manufacturers: Motorola, Scientific Atlanta/Cisco, NDS, or Conax. You need one multi-stream CableCARD (M-card). Single-stream CableCARDs (S-cards) are not compatible.

“That costs an extra $1.50 a month from Comcast, and in my case, required three trips to its nearest office because the first card didn’t work,” Jaroslovsky writes.

On the second trip, Comcast handed him two cards in the hope at least one would work, requiring one last trip to return the card that didn’t.

Time Warner Cable and certain other cable operators use Switched Digital Video, incompatible with the Roamio without a Digital Tuning Adapter, available from the cable company.

The second hurdle was to get Comcast to recognize and authorize that CableCARD. Comcast’s technical customer support staff was lacking. Jaroslovsky found his call bounced from department to department attempting to authorize the card and diagnose why it simply refused to work at first.

After finally overcoming those problems, Jaroslovsky discovered he was out of luck getting Roamio to stream premium movie channels like HBO and Cinemax. The encryption system Comcast supports prohibits streaming the movie networks outside of the home. The Slingbox works around the issue by bypassing the encryption system’s permission settings with extra cables between it and your cable box.

Time Warner Cable subscribers will need still another piece of equipment — a Tuning Adapter compatible with Switched Digital Video (SDV). To conserve bandwidth, cable companies like Time Warner limit certain digital channels being sent to each neighborhood unless someone is actively watching.

Before you can view or record a program on an SDV channel, your box must be able to send channel requests back to the cable headend. Roamio is a one-way device and cannot send the required channel requests. Cable providers who have deployed SDV technology will provide a Tuning Adapter to customers who have HD TiVo boxes. A Tuning Adapter is a set top box that provides two-way capabilities, so your box can request SDV channels. There are two Tuning Adapter brands: Motorola and Cisco. Motorola CableCARDs work with Motorola Tuning Adapters. Scientific Atlanta and NDS CableCARD work with Cisco Tuning Adapters. Without the Tuning Adapter, a Roamio user will find error messages on several digital channels indicating they are “temporarily unavailable.”

Other cable operators offer varying support for Roamio. Cablevision has been learning how to support the device along with customers. Prior customer experiences make it clear front-line service representatives are not going to be very helpful managing the technical process to properly configure, update, and authorize CableCARD technology for the new TiVo device, so prepare to have your call transferred to one or more representatives.

After all this, Jaroslovsky was finally watching his Comcast cable channels, able to access on-demand services, and found TiVo’s interface and program guide more satisfying than the one offered on Comcast’s DVR.

Roamio Plus and Pro have built-in support for video streaming away from home that will be fully enabled this fall.

Jaroslovsky found in-home streaming smooth and satisfying. Programs launched quickly and looked terrific on an iPad with Apple’s high-resolution Retina display, with none of the blockiness or stuttering sometimes associated with streaming video.

His review unit allowed him to test streamed programming outside of the home and video quality on the go was much more variable. The current software prohibits video streaming on AT&T’s 4G LTE network, a problem with a resolution now in the works. Public Wi-Fi hotspots often delivered poor performance, even when they could supply up to 2Mbps. Blurred pictures and pixel blocks often broke up the video on slow Internet connections. A faster connection supporting more than 10Mbps is capable of delivering a better viewing experience, especially if that connection comes without usage caps.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/TiVo Roamio DVR Demo Video 8-19-13.flv[/flv]

An introduction and demo of the TiVo Roamio DVR, produced by TiVo. (3 minutes)

This article was updated with a clarification about Tuning Adapters, required by some cable operators using Switched Digital Video. Thanks to reader Dave Hancock for helping clear things up.

Time Warner Cable admitted this morning extracting more revenue from existing customers was more important than attracting new ones, and long time subscribers responded by canceling service in above average numbers.

In a conference call largely hosted by incoming CEO Robert Marcus, a number of Wall Street analysts listened to Marcus’ vision for Time Warner under his forthcoming leadership. Marcus offered competing, potentially incompatible visions in his defense of a lackluster quarter: charge existing customers higher prices for service to boost average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) while also improving the customer-company relationship.

For most of 2013, Time Warner has been aggressively moving away from heavily discounted promotional offers to attract customers. Both outgoing CEO Glenn Britt and Marcus have repeatedly stressed heavy discounting of service during the past two years is now over, and the company is looking forward to resetting prices higher when the promotions end later this year.

It is part of the company’s plan to “drive better performance in the residential business.” An unfortunate side effect is that the company continues to lose video and phone customers and its broadband service growth has been so slow, one analyst called it “anemic.” The company’s quarterly results show Time Warner added only 8,000 new broadband customers in the last three months. The company still earned $1.42 billion from broadband sales alone over the last three months, mostly because of rising broadband bills.

Courtesy: Jacobson

Offsetting that growth, TWC lost 191,000 residential video subscribers, leaving it with about 11.9 million video customers. At least 56,000 customers also pulled the plug on Time Warner Cable telephone service.

“As we discussed before, this [new pricing] approach represents a conscious decision to pursue subscribers with higher ARPU, higher profit and lower churn even if that means fewer connects,” said Marcus as he defended the results. “So it’s not a surprise that as in the first quarter of 2013, subscriber net adds were down in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis.”

As customers deal with increasing prices for cable television and broadband service and the irritation of modem rental fees, many are cutting back on their packages to keep their bill stable.

Marcus admitted customer sign ups of triple play — phone, broadband, and cable TV service — were way down in the second quarter and a lot fewer single and double-play customers were convinced to upgrade. The company’s promotional offers have come with a higher price and slower broadband service, often only 3Mbps.

In a number of markets, especially in the midwest, customers are shopping around for other providers. They are finding AT&T U-verse to be a formidable competitor.

“Throughout the quarter, U-verse was pretty aggressive with a beacon price of $79 for their triple play and $49 for their double play,” said Marcus. “I would characterize those as aggressive promotional prices, and they had an impact. I would say that the impact was more pronounced as the quarter wore on. We’ve now responded to that in the market, and I expect that our relative performance should improve there.”

But for much of the rest of the country where competition is less robust, Time Warner intends to continue to hold the line on pricing and resist discounting even if it means subscribers threaten to cancel.

Time Warner Cable has gotten itself ready for an onslaught of unhappy customers, assigning nearly 1,000 employees to staff four national customer retention centers dedicated to trying to persuade customers not to leave. But these specially trained representatives have a dual mission — keep customers with Time Warner Cable, but don’t give away the store doing so.

Stock buybacks and shareholder dividends were a major priority for Time Warner Cable’s cash on hand.

“Not only are our reps saving more customers, they are also preserving more ARPU among the customers they save,” said Marcus. “As promotional roll-offs peak in the second half of 2013, we expect that our new retention capabilities will drive better revenue growth.”

In the broadband market, Time Warner changed little in the second quarter except to raise prices on service and equipment. Marcus could only point to the addition of 3,500 new Wi-Fi hotspots, mostly in New York City, as its signature achievement over the past three months.

On the residential side, broadband revenues were up 12.5%, but most of that growth came from a combination of the modem lease fee, an increase in the number of 30/5 and 50/5Mbps customers and a successful Turbo promotion.

Results for video and voice were considerably worse. Revenues were down about 4%.

But the company managed to report its highest ARPU ever, with customers now paying an average of more than $105 a month for Time Warner service. Most of that increase came from rising broadband prices.

Time Warner Cable has also been preoccupied with spending excess cash on hand to buy back its own stock, which creates shareholder value. Time Warner expects to spend at least $2.5 billion on stock buybacks this year. Shareholders also received $829 million in dividends (113% of Time Warner’s free cash flow).

“We repurchased 6.6 million shares for $638 million, and through July, we have repurchased approximately 83 million shares at an average cost of around $78.50 per share since we began the program in November of 2010,” reported chief financial officer Arthur T. Minson.

Time Warner Cable’s Board of Directors recently approved increasing spending up to $4 billion on stock buybacks.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WRGB Albany TWC Modem Fee 7-31-13.flv[/flv]

WRGB in Albany reports Time Warner Cable customers are angry about another price hike on the company’s modem lease fee effective Aug. 18. WRGB recommends customers buy their own modems to avoid the fee. Time Warner Cable’s Glenn Britt admitted earlier the fee is really just a hidden rate increase. (3 minutes)

Comcast has filed a patent application that would let the company expand its Wi-Fi network by turning customers into human Wi-Fi hotspots and convincing them to offer Comcast Wi-Fi from rental cars, bicycles, and buses.

FierceCable found the patent application, called “Mobile WiFi Network” that would let the cable company build a dynamic mesh network of mobile hotspots that could be used by its customers. But instead of placing permanent Wi-Fi antennas on buildings or light posts, Comcast wants a patent to extend its network by using vehicles and people that can be positioned exactly where Comcast needs better wireless coverage.

In one example, Comcast’s proposed roving rental car fleet would use incentives to convince renters to activate the car’s built-in hotspot in return for free or discounted services.

“The offer may indicate that if the rental car is dropped off at one or more designated parking spots, the driver will receive a discounted car rental rate, free parking, a coupon for items sold at the designated parking spot, etc. In this manner, the driver may be incentivized to assist in managing the network of transceivers to improve the coverage area. A driver wishing to accept the offer may press a button on the car’s computing display, or other computing device (e.g., using a smart phone application) to respond to the offer with an acceptance,” Comcast states in the patent application.

If a driver says no, Comcast can up the ante with an even better offer in response. If that does not work, Comcast can expand its Wi-Fi network dynamically in other ways.

“It should be understood that the process could be implemented by placing transceivers in or on any other mobile unit, such as bicycles, Segways, buses, police cars, taxis, boats, persons, dedicated vehicles, etc. or any combination of such mobile units,” Comcast wrote.

Last month, Comcast announced it would activate a public Wi-Fi network over wireless routers supplied to customers on a secondary channel.