Verizon Wireless quietly admitted Tuesday its much-vaunted LTE network is suffering speed slowdowns so serious, some customers in New York, Chicago, and San Francisco are being randomly kicked off Verizon’s 4G network to slower 3G service until congestion eases.

Fran Shammo, Verizon’s chief financial officer, volunteered that online video was the likely culprit and he was surprised by usage growth well in excess of what Verizon predicted.

Current estimates from the company suggest Verizon’s LTE customers are responsible for 64% of all data traffic on Verizon’s wireless network nationwide. But in large cities, Shammo said traffic numbers are much higher.

Shammo

“There are certain pockets where we’re absolutely going to experience that down tick from the LTE network to 3G because of capacity constraints,” Shammo admitted.

The sudden revelation Verizon now has insufficient capacity for its LTE service is a significant reversal for Shammo, who has repeatedly told investors Verizon has enough wireless spectrum for the next 4-5 years.

In May 2013, Shammo told investors attending the JPMorgan Global Technology, Media and Telecom Conference:

As I have said before, our spectrum position right now is very good, with the AWS transaction that we completed with the cable carriers last year, with the sale of the spectrum that we are doing with AT&T later this year, obviously giving that spectrum to someone who can utilize it better than we can at this point in time. So I think our holdings are exactly where we need to be. And I have said before we really don’t need spectrum for the next four to five years, with the way that we deployed CDMA and how we will utilize that spectrum from our CDMA deployment over to the 4G network as we need it.

Later that same month, Shammo confidently repeated his assertion Verizon was all set for spectrum at Barclays Global Technology, Media and Telecommunications Conference:

Well, we have — from where we sit today, we have a very good spectrum portfolio which is why we went after the AWS spectrum, which is really going to be used for our capacity of LTE. The 700 megahertz that we have contiguous across the United States is used for the coverage piece. So we’re in pretty good shape for the next four to five years, even with reallocating our 3G spectrum over to our 4G network. […] And we think, look, we think that there will be enough spectrum there. We think that technology change — I mean, people are already talking about LTE advanced. Well, LTE advanced is nothing more than creating a bit more speed on the network. But really LTE advances around being able to utilize the spectrum much more efficiently within the network.

Carriers can boost coverage with more cell towers, street level picocells, or in-building femtocells.

Some critics suggest Verizon is ginning up a spectrum crisis as new FCC chairman Tom Wheeler begins to look at the current state of wireless spectrum and competition in the wireless industry. They also point to the fact Verizon has so much unused, warehoused spectrum, it has tried to sell the excess off to third parties.

“We have A band [unused spectrum] in our pocket today that we put for auction a year and a half ago and we did not get what we thought it was worth,” Shammo said yesterday. “We brought it back into the portfolio. But we can use that as a trade for some different spectrum. We put it up for auction so obviously it was on the block [and was] never taken off the block. But obviously it is not for fire sale. If a transaction makes sense then we will execute the transaction. If it doesn’t, then we will deploy it.”

In the short-term, Shammo promised customers the congestion issues were already being dealt with by “lighting up” acquired AWS spectrum formerly owned by cable operators, and adding data systems and small cell-type antennas in high congestion areas.

Shammo added that since Verizon was finished expanding its wireless network out to new, unserved areas, future investments would be directed at improving service within current coverage areas.

“I think by year-end you’re going to see us [concentrate] all of our CapEx around densification and then you will start to see us talk about things like VoLTE (Voice over LTE) and multicast (video) and some of these LTE advanced technologies that will come in the next year,” said Shammo.

*-Terms, conditions, and a whole lot more applies.

Austin residents are getting spoiled with promises of gigabit broadband — the first major city in the country offered a competitive choice of 1,000Mbps Internet providers — Google and AT&T.

But one of those claiming to offer a “100-percent fiber Internet broadband network that will deliver up to 1Gbps per second,” is already fudging on that commitment before activating its first fiber customer.

AT&T’s sudden interest in selling 1,000Mbps service came as a surprise to Austin residents that have been told for years their broadband service was fast enough as is. Grande Communications had been the choice for customers seeking the fastest speeds — they sell up to 110/5Mbps for $110 a month. Time Warner Cable still tops out at 50Mbps and AT&T’s U-verse, still not fully deployed in Texas, sold up to 24Mbps ‘screaming fast’ Max Turbo service as its top offering until recently, when AT&T began limited roll-out of up to 45Mbps service.

Mere hours after Google announced Austin as its next choice for Google Fiber, “me-too” AT&T was announcing it would build its own gigabit fiber to the home network in the same city. That was a complete 180 for AT&T, which has consistently argued that running fiber to the home was an unnecessary expense. While Verizon faced the wrath of Wall Street for its decision to launch FiOS — an all-fiber-network — analysts were complaining Verizon was spending too much while AT&T was spending considerably less on its fiber to the neighborhood U-verse system that keeps existing copper wire into the home.

Right from the beginning, AT&T has always accompanied certain terms and conditions for any fiber deployment — winning equal concessions that Google received from local officials with respect to pole attachment fees, zoning, permits, and other expenses. If those were not forthcoming, AT&T could walk away from its fiber commitment at any time.

On Monday, AT&T announced it had started deploying fiber for AT&T U-verse with GigaPower, with a plan to launch in December in neighborhoods with the highest number of votes to get the service. AT&T is taking names and numbers of interested customers seeking to show their interest in fiber service. No deposit or commitment is required to vote, but you will be placed on AT&T’s marketing mailing lists.

“Austin embodies innovation and social consciousness, and is the heart of a vibrant, ever-evolving tech culture and entrepreneurial spirit,” said Dave Nichols, president of AT&T Texas. “With our all-fiber U-verse services, we are building the foundation for a new wave of innovation for Austin’s consumers, businesses, and civic and educational institutions. It’s about engaging the full community and empowering the city and its people with all that technology can offer us. This investment will help attract new business and new jobs to Austin.”

Phillip Dampier

As long as those consumers, businesses, and jobs are within the first deployment zone for AT&T’s fiber network.

For the rest of this year and well into the next, that will be a very exclusive neighborhood.

AT&T’s press release claims it will “initially reach tens of thousands of customer locations throughout Austin and surrounding areas this year, with additional local expansion planned in 2014.”

The five-county Austin–Round Rock metropolitan area has a population of 1,834,303 residents. Assuming AT&T managed to offer fiber service to 100,000 residents — and that is a generous figure, that represents only 5.5% of Greater Austin. The old U-verse is still a work in progress in several Texas cities, so it could take years for AT&T to deploy fiber in Austin. Expect AT&T to start with the low-hanging fruit — multi-dwelling units such as apartments, condos, and other similar buildings, some that already have existing fiber connections in place.

AT&T may never get around to offering fiber to more rural locations in Austin’s suburbs: “There are many factors involved in stringing an advanced fiber network, so having your neighbors vote to be notified about U-verse with GigaPower is no guarantee we’ll get to your neighborhood first, but it does give us some idea of where we want to focus our efforts; and besides, things are always more fun when we work together.”

AT&T is already backing away from its commitment to offer gigabit service, at least initially.

“The December launch will initially feature symmetrical speeds of up to 300Mbps, […] with an upgrade to speeds up to 1 Gigabit per second when available in mid-2014, and at no extra cost,” AT&T writes in its press release.

Speaking of cost, nobody at AT&T is willing to give us one for the 1,000 300Mbps launch tier.

If AT&T is smart, it better set it lower than what Google is likely to charge, considering AT&T will initially only deliver less than 1/3rd of the promised gigabit speed.

While thinking about that, AT&T might also want to dump usage caps. The fastest U-verse tiers come with a 250GB usage allowance, which can really crimp a screaming fast fiber experience once your allowance runs out.

A website glitch by Verizon Wireless last weekend let customers with legacy unlimited data plans to upgrade to a new subsidized smartphone on a two-year contract and keep unlimited data.

This afternoon, Verizon Wireless representatives confirmed they will honor upgrades from customers that took advantage of the mistake, despite the fact Verizon’s CEO has gone out of his way to declare unlimited data service “unsustainable.”

Over the past weekend, there was a software issue involving some orders for customers seeking to upgrade their devices. A number of customers who were upgrading devices were able to maintain an unlimited monthly data feature while paying a subsidized price. Verizon Wireless will honor those orders that were approved this past weekend, allowing those customers to retain their unlimited plans for the duration of their contract and receive their new device. Verizon Wireless corrected this software issue today.  The company no longer offers unlimited data plans and customers who want to retain existing unlimited data plans, must pay full retail price for a replacement phone.

Verizon Wireless discontinued offering unlimited use data plans, but has allowed customers still on those plans to keep them indefinitely. Last year, Verizon Wireless amended its policy for grandfathered unlimited customers denying them access to subsidized, discounted devices unless they switched to a usage-based plan. A website error allowed unlimited customers to bypass a usual restriction requiring them to abandon their unlimited plan to complete the upgrade order. Dozens of customers reported this morning they had received their new phones with unlimited data still intact. With the glitch fixed, customers attempting to upgrade will once again need to give up unlimited data in return for a device discount.

Verizon Wireless CEO Lowell McAdam said last week offering unlimited data service was “unsustainable” as a matter of physics. McAdam said carriers still offering unlimited data will be overwhelmed by excessive customer use, running wireless networks “out of gas.”

Sprint countered it has plenty of “runway” to continue selling unlimited data service, and even offers a “lifetime guarantee” of unlimited service on its wireless network.

At least one Wall Street analyst agreed with Sprint.

“This Verizon comment simply makes no sense. When two different people look at the same thing you often get two completely different perspectives. That’s what is happening here. It does not mean either is right or wrong, just different,” said tech analyst Jeff Kagan. “Unlimited wireless data may not make sense for Verizon Wireless for a variety of reasons. Perhaps they want to have some control over how much wireless data is being used. Perhaps they want to increase their profitability. Whatever the reason, this is Verizon’s belief and they are not wrong, for Verizon. Sprint is a different story.”

Sprint’s chief financial officer Joe Euteneuer, speaking at a Goldman Sachs conference in New York on Thursday, said Sprint’s acquisition of 2.5GHz radio spectrum from Clearwire will give it a capacity edge once its 4G network build-out is done in mid-2014.

“We feel very good about our positioning having that spectrum . .. and our portfolio spectrum vs. the competition,” Euteneuer said. “So we’ll get leverage there.”

“Sprint’s unlimited plans are the right idea at the right time,” added Kagan. “They have plenty of capacity on the network. Sprint in fact has much more spectrum than Verizon. Sprint needs to hang on to their existing customer base and attract new users. If Sprint charged the same as Verizon or AT&T they would lose. So Sprint needs to attract attention. That’s what always happens in a market. The leaders and the followers take different marketing and positioning angles. And that’s exactly what is happening here.”

Time Warner Cable believes it has room to raise broadband prices and get away with it without much customer backlash.

The cable company’s chief financial officer, Arthur Minson, raised the prospect of more price hikes at Tuesday’s Goldman Sachs 22nd Annual Communacopia Conference.

“Look, the modem [fee] was really just a form of a High Speed Data rate increase,” Minson said, referring to the company’s introduction of a $4 cable modem rental fee last fall and a later increase to around $6 a month introduced this summer. “I do see an ability for us to continue to have ARPU increases on that product.”

“ARPU” refers to the Average Revenue Per User — a term that reflects what companies earn in revenue divided by the number of customers. In most cases, an ARPU increase comes from price hikes or customers subscribing to additional value-added services.

Minson

Minson suggested that the company’s gradual rollout of optional usage-based pricing tiers provides an alternative for price-sensitive customers that cannot afford rate increases on flat-rate service or are seeking a price reduction.

“I think we’re very pleased with where we are in the usage-based pricing front and I think that’s something we will continue,” Minson concluded. “I think over time it will be interesting to see how many people ultimately take the usage-based pricing, or will people say I just want to have unlimited and I think the market will speak on that.”

Time Warner Cable has focused investment on several fronts this year, and plans continued investments to expand offerings in these key areas:

1. Business broadband expansion. Some of the company’s biggest investments target wiring businesses and office parks for cable service, primarily to expand commercial broadband. “Commercial services is success-based capital that we see real meaningful returns on,” Minson said.
2. Wi-Fi expansion. Time Warner Cable will continue expanding Wi-Fi hotspots in select cities. Customers with Standard (15/1Mbps) service or above can use the service for free. Minson said that the company was very happy to offer customers subscribed to unlimited use tiers free access to Wi-Fi. Not so for those choosing usage-based pricing plans. They will have to upgrade to an unlimited plan to get free access. “That’s a real incentive to drive people into the higher tiers,” Minson noted.
3. DOCSIS 3.1. Time Warner plans to adopt and invest in DOCSIS 3.1 cable modem technology when it is officially released. DOCSIS 3.1 will offer more efficient broadband transport and will let companies offer even faster speeds. Minson noted that broadband is increasingly the company’s anchor product, so it will continue investments accordingly.

Customers looking for aggressive pricing won’t find much at Time Warner Cable. Minson noted the company will continue its year-long pullback on low-priced promotions.

“We have a $79 bundle out in the marketplace and you would say okay, that sounds similar to the offer in the marketplace last year,” Minson said. “It may be similar but in terms of what you get for that $79 it is very different from what we gave a year ago and what we have now is the ability to meaningfully up sell the customers from the beacon price.”

A year ago, Time Warner Cable didn’t have a modem rental fee and typically bundled its Standard tier Internet service in its promotional packages. A traditional triple-play package of phone, cable TV and Internet service starts at $89 today, but only includes 3Mbps broadband, doesn’t bundle DVR service, and doesn’t include a mandatory set-top box which now costs a minimum of $8.99 a month each. Combining the modem fee with the mandatory box charge raises the promotional price to $104.97 a month.

• Upgrading to Standard 15/1Mbps service costs an extra $10 a month.
• Adding a DVR? That costs an additional $21.94 a month.
• The “whole house” DVR package is now priced at $37.47 a month.
• Time Warner Cable has also recently increased the price of premium movie channels to a uniform $15.95 each for HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, and Starz.

Taking into account these popular upsold add-ons, the promotional price of $79-89 might be seen as bait and switch by some customers. The true cost for most choosing a triple play package including cable TV with DVR service, one set-top box, a Time Warner-supplied cable modem, and a speed upgrade to 15/1Mbps service is $127.92 a month before taxes and fees.

Customers unhappy with their cable bill who call to complain are now routed to specially trained retention operators, Minson said.

“We’ve taken about a 1,000 dedicated employees and focused them on retention and even within those centers there are areas of expertise,” Minson said. “For our Spanish language customers we have retention centers set-up to help them when they call in. For people who are coming off a promotional offer, we have dedicated reps who can deal with that group of customers. So it’s having a deeper set of expertise in those areas and the returns so far are well within our expectations and we are really pleased with how it’s going.”

Time Warner Cable will not follow Comcast, Charter, Cox and Mediacom by imposing usage caps or move towards a compulsory usage-based billing scheme.

Yesterday, incoming CEO Robert Marcus told investors attending the Bank of America Merrill Lynch 2013 Media, Communications, and Entertainment Conference that he recognizes the majority of Time Warner Cable’s broadband customers want the company’s unlimited use offering and made it clear that option will continue to be available.

Marcus

“Most customers today — the vast, vast majority — take our unlimited offering and I think over time most customers will continue to take unlimited,” said Marcus, who currently serves as Time Warner Cable’s chief operating officer. “They value it and will be willing to pay for it. I think that is great and we have no desire to change that.”

However, Marcus also reflected on the revenue opportunities available to the company from its broadband offering, and signaled investors the company would continue to price the service commensurate with its perceived value.

“High Speed Data is a tremendous product for us,” Marcus said. “Our customers continue to use it more and more for all different sorts of applications. I think consumption growth year over year in the second quarter is somewhere north of 40 percent. It has been in that kind of range for a long time and we expect it to continue to grow at a pace like that for as long as we can see. With that increasing usage comes an increasing utility to customers and we believe an increasing willingness to pay for that incremental utility.”

Time Warner Cable increased its broadband average revenue per user (ARPU) by 9% for residential High Speed Data during the second quarter, with total broadband revenue up more than 12%, according to Marcus. Those revenue increases have been made possible by three things:

Less Costs More: *-With the FCC claiming the average Internet user consumes 28GB of broadband per month, this may explain why Time Warner Cable customers have little interest in the company’s 5GB Internet Essentials offer. (Chart: New America Foundation)

• Adding new broadband customers, mostly those abandoning telephone company DSL;
• Implementing general price increases on broadband service for existing customers and the introduction (and later increase) of modem rental fees starting last fall;
• Successfully encouraging customers to upgrade to faster speed tiers, which are sold at a higher cost.

Despite Marcus’ commitment to maintain unlimited broadband service for Time Warner Cable customers, the cable company is moving forward with several optional, usage-based tiers sold at a discount.

“There are customers who choose to consume less and we feel strongly that we need an offering for them which allows them to pay less and eliminate the structure where they have to subsidize the heavy users,” Marcus explained.

For more than a year, Time Warner has offered a little noticed, usage-limited plan for customers willing to confine their Internet browsing to a maximum of 5GB per month. The plan has not been popular with customers and very few have signed up. Time Warner announced earlier this summer they would try again.

“We’re now in the process of rolling out yet another usage-based tier of service which I think is a more meaningful one because it comports with what real-life usage is like, which allows customers to use 30GB a month of service again at a discount from the unlimited pricing,” said Marcus. “When you put 30GB in context, our average usage today is about 50GB a month, median usage is actually less than 30GB, so for some customers there is going to be an economically rational reason for them to choose that 30GB tier. I expect the take rate will be certainly higher than for the 5GB service.”

Marcus, like the current CEO Glenn Britt, admits the company is attempting to educate customers that broadband usage carries a cost.

“There is a principle at stake: that value, price and usage are related to one another and that is important over time,” Marcus said.