A Wall Street analyst has urged Time Warner Cable’s competitors to deny promotional pricing to new customers switching providers because of the CBS blackout.

“While Time Warner Cable’s competitors appear to be resisting predatory marketing campaigns to take advantage of the CBS blackout, at least so far, we believe they need to go even further to cause real industry change,” wrote BTIG Research’s Richard Greenfield. “While TWC’s competitors cannot stop consumers from switching their video service provider due to the loss of CBS, they could make it less appealing to switch due to a programming dispute blackout.”

Greenfield wants providers to support solidarity against programmers like CBS by not taking advantage of the situation to poach subscribers away from Time Warner with attractive promotional packages and pricing. He believes it will ultimately lead to lower prices for consumers.

“The only way to begin to shift leverage in these content negotiations is for [providers] to start supporting each other in programming disputes, rather than try to steal each others’ subscribers,” said Greenfield. “We believe it would make strategic sense for all major [providers] to add a script to their website and call-center new customer acquisition process that asks whether a customer is switching due to the Time Warner CBS dispute (or whatever disputes are currently on-going in the country).  If the answer is ‘Yes’ we believe that consumer should not be offered promotional pricing and should be informed that these types of disputes are becoming a problem for all video providers — essentially teaching consumers that ‘switching won’t help’ during these short-term programming battles.”

DirecTV is among the first to express solidarity with its cable competitor, issuing a statement last weekend:

DirecTV has certainly had its share of these battles, so we applaud Time Warner Cable for fighting back against exorbitant programming cost increases. We are also appalled to learn that CBS is now punishing DirecTV customers, who may happen to have Time Warner as their Internet provider, by denying them access to CBS content online.

Greenfield’s suggestion essentially asks that cable operators and telephone companies agree not to compete. His idea also penalizes consumers caught in the middle of programming disputes that customers ultimately pay for in the form of higher bills. We think it comes dangerously close to illegal, anti-competitive behavior. Even Greenfield seems to understand his suggestion comes close to the line.

“It is obviously illegal for MVPD’s to collude,” Greenfield concludes. “However, it is not illegal for each to do what is right for the future of their business, even if it means passing on short term opportunity.  Tacit cooperation is the best strategy we see available, barring government intervention.”

What is right for business is not right for consumers. Stop the Cap! strongly recommends those signing up with a competitor over programming blackouts avoid explaining their reasons for switching. As well as being none of their business, being candid could cost consumers valuable money-saving discounts and promotions that other new customers receive.

We believe the most effective “game-changer” in the fight between providers and broadcasters demanding 600% rate increases for programming available for free on any television is technology like Aereo, which picks up over-the-air stations with dime-sized antennas and provides customers with online streams of those channels. This technology, if found legal, could eventually be adopted by cable operators to avoid retransmission consent payments altogether or use as effective leverage in negotiations. Aereo is a win-win for providers and consumers. Telling providers to deny consumers new customer pricing just because someone wants to get missing programming back is not.

We’d remind Greenfield of this universal truth: cable bills never go down unless a customers downgrades or threatens to leave.

Frontier is enticing Rochester-area customers to “say goodbye to Time Warner Cable.”

Time Warner Cable’s relentless rate increases, particularly on its broadband service, are leading to calls for more competition in the upstate New York cities of Buffalo and Rochester, now dominated by Time Warner, Verizon Communications (Buffalo), and Frontier Communications (Rochester).

“Bloodsuckers,” came the terse reply of Cathy Slocum.

Frontier Communications is making the most out of the cable company rate increases with a new “Goodbye Time Warner” ad campaign (that incidentally includes a link to Stop the Cap!’s coverage of TWC’s modem fee). It is pitching $19.99 broadband price-locked for two years — an improvement over its earlier offers thanks to a major reduction in sneaky fine print.

Customers can get up to 6Mbps service (up to 12Mbps available in limited areas) at the special offer price as long as they keep a Frontier landline active with a qualifying calling package. There are no contracts with this promotion, but Frontier’s pesky $9.99 “Broadband Processing Fee” applies if customers ever choose to disconnect Internet service. A free Wi-Fi Internet router is included and the company claims it offers “free Internet activation.” But an installation fee still applies, discounted if customers choose the self-install option. Taxes, governmental and other Frontier-imposed surcharges also apply and new Frontier customers are subject to credit approval, which will show up as an inquiry on your credit report.

In the past, we have taken Frontier to task for its expensive early termination and modem rental fees, as well as its bundling requirements, but the company has since ditched most of these as part of its new self-proclaimed reputation as “BS free.”

Unfortunately, Frontier’s DSL speeds can wildly vary, so if you take advantage of their offer, be sure to verify the speed actually get at your home or office. If the service proves too slow to your liking after installation, you can negotiate canceling within the first two weeks without any termination fees.

Where FiOS is available in Buffalo, Verizon is offering promotional pricing on its bundled services, including an $84.99 offer including 50/25Mbps Internet with a Verizon landline offering unlimited calling. This is cheaper than Time Warner’s offer with considerably faster upload speeds and no modem fees. In parts of Buffalo, Verizon is authorized to offer broadband and phone service only, although several suburbs have franchise agreements that allow the phone company to also sell television service. A large part of the city and other suburbs are still stuck with Verizon’s copper network, however, which means DSL is the best they can offer.

Time Warner Cable’s new customer promotions, useful when negotiating a customer retention deal, have resumed bundling Standard tier (15/1Mbps service) Internet speeds into most offers. Previously, the company bundled 3Mbps service in many of its promotions. Broadband-only customers can pay as little as $34.99 a month for a year of Internet service at 15/1Mbps speeds, assuming one buys their own cable modem. A double play offer of broadband basic television (around 20 channels, mostly local over-the-air) with 30/5Mbps Internet service is now priced at $94.97 a month after a $5.99 mandatory modem rental fee is included (not optional with this package).

Time Warner Cable executives have repeatedly told investors its higher priced promotions are intentional to increase revenue and profits even if the company loses customers by charging higher prices.

Verizon FiOS offers in the Buffalo area.

“I moved here from the New York City area a year ago where we had two cable companies — Cablevision and Verizon FiOS,” noted Stephen O’Brien. “Competition changes everything. Not only were the rates much lower than here, the companies would offer you all kinds of incentives to switch from one to the other. One time we switched and got a free iPod Touch. The argument that the rate increase is needed to cover investment is the biggest red herring of all — Cablevision and FiOS spent many times more on infrastructure, yet their rates were much lower.”

Stop the Cap! recommends Time Warner Cable customers check out our guide to getting the best deal possible from TWC.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WGRZ Buffalo Time Warner Rate Hikes 8-6-13.flv[/flv]

WGRZ in Buffalo reports upstate New York residents are upset about two recently announced broadband rate hikes. Time Warner Cable says it needs the money to keep up its broadband service’s reliability. What alternatives do customers have?  (2 minutes)

After repeated extensions, Time Warner Cable yanked several channels from your cable dial today, and before you ask, you are -not- entitled to any refunds. So don’t ask. (Actually, ask anyway.)

The affected channels are:

• CBS Owned-and-Operated TV stations in the following cities:
  Los Angeles:  KCBS and KCAL-Ind.
  New York:  WCBS
  Dallas-Ft. Worth:  KTVT-CBS and KTXA-Ind.
  Boston:  WBZ-CBS and WSBK-Ind. (carried in parts of NH and MA)
  Chicago:  WBBM-CBS (carried in parts of WI)
  Denver:  KCNC-CBS (carried in Gunnison and Telluride)
  Detroit:  WKBD-CW (carried in parts of OH)
  Pittsburgh:  KDKA-CBS and WPCW-CW (carried in parts of OH)
• Showtime
• The Movie Channel (TMC)
• Flix
• Smithsonian Channel

Phillip “FAQ” Dampier

If your local CBS station is not on this list, you will still be able to watch CBS programming because the dispute only affects local stations directly owned/operated by CBS. But cable subscribers nationwide may notice the loss of the cable networks and premium movie channels, if one subscribes.

As a courtesy, Time Warner Cable has elected to throw Showtime subscribers a bone (and avoid having to pay any refunds) by turning on Starz and Encore for affected customers. (If you happen to find anything worthwhile to watch on Starz, please post a comment and let the rest of us know what we are missing.) Encore is a better choice, but customers should feel free to arrange their own “credit” by canceling Showtime until the dispute is resolved. Time Warner Cable was running a promotion offering HBO and Cinemax for $5 a month each for six months to a year. Inquire if that option is still available if you are feeling premium movie channel withdrawal.

“We deeply regret being forced into this position by CBS, but we’re prepared to stand by our customers and do what it takes to fight these unreasonable demands,” writes Time Warner Cable.

In the meantime, we’ve helped massage Time Warner’s FAQ and rubbed in some truth extract:

Q:  Dear Time Warner Cable Assassins of Joy: Now that you’ve stopped carrying the channels I am still paying for, where can I find the darn shows I’m missing?

A:   There are any number of places, including free over-the-air using an antenna, if you remember what that looks like, plus some places online for free.  In addition, in NYC only, CBS is available through Aereo, which is currently offering a one-month-free-trial at www.aereo.com. Just don’t think about dropping your entire cable television package once you discover Aereo works well enough for you and you don’t need us to delete $70 a month from your wallet and recreate it in ours. Pretty please.

Courtesy: Rich Greenfield, BTIG

For national network prime time shows:

• Visit www.CBS.com to see recent airings (mostly repeats except for Stephen King’s ‘Small Town Under Glass’) of their primetime shows. Thank us we are not capping your Internet usage, sticking it to you for watching unauthorized shows (the ones we don’t own) for free.
• In addition, many primetime programs are available via national online services like Amazon.com, Hulu.com, iTunes.com, or Netflix.com, some for free, some as part of a subscription fee that is almost always far less than the pillaging prices we charge.

For daytime soap operas if you still bother to watch those:  www.cbs.com for free

For local news, weather, and sports:  Remember that your other local broadcast stations remain available on the Time Warner Cable lineup, along with NY1/YNN in select markets (because you want to get your local news from a wholly owned Time Warner Cable news network — the one that often shills our own products). And some of the local CBS stations stream their local newscasts for free over the Internet. Again, worship us for not capping your broadband. Check your local station’s website for information.

For syndicated shows like Dr. Oz, Ellen, Katie, and others:  They are probably all repeats anyway and how many times do you need to be told you are living your life all wrong. It’s summer. Go outside. Be happy. If you insist, most of those shows share either full episodes or highlights via their own websites, for free.

For shows that appear on Showtime, or movies:  Showtime makes some episodes and clips available for free at Sho.com and at Hulu.com. Because nothing equals the experience of watching an entire show like a 30 second clip! Other episodes can be found at paid services like Amazon.com, Netflix.com, and on iTunes. So while you are still paying us for those premium movie channels, go and pay someone else too. And remember that, as a courtesy so we don’t actually have to refund your money, we are providing replacement programming from Starz and Encore on a temporary basis.  Showtime and TMC customers should look in your onscreen guide for the Starz and Encore channel numbers.

For shows on Smithsonian:  If you can find the channel on our 1,000 channel lineup, you are better than us. If you actually watched any shows on Smithsonian, you can get by with similar shows on Discovery, National Geographic, TLC, Animal Planet, and many others, as long as you steer well clear of Honey Boo Boo. She’s a national treasure too, we know, but not enough to be on the Smithsonian Channel.

Frequently Asked Questions Not Well-Answered

Q. Why is this happening?

A:  $$$. We collect, count and stack your money for the pleasure of our executives and shareholders and now other programmers dare to want some of it. We’re not going to let that happen unless you give us more than enough to replace what we’re giving them.

Q:  This kind of blackout seems to happen to Time Warner Cable all the time; Screw you, I’m going to switch to another provider.

A:   Screw you right back. Unfortunately, these kinds of blackouts have occurred more often over the past few years—last year, over 80 broadcast TV stations withheld their channels from all kinds of video providers, including cable, satellite, and telephone companies because they smell the cash we currently get to play patty-cake with.  It’s not just Time Warner Cable, silly—every provider is at risk for losing the right to carry these channels that are available for free over the air to an antenna. Because when this kind of money is involved, all sorts of hell breaks loose. Switching to another provider won’t prevent similar blackouts from happening to you in the future, and you could miss some of your favorite programming, like…  NY1 in New York City. (Really.) We’ve been raising your rates and making you pay for hundreds of channels you never watch for years. Remember, sometimes the evil you know is better than the evil you don’t. We’re talking to you AT&T U-verse.

Q:  It seems odd that CBS SportsNet is still available, when the main CBS channel isn’t.  Why is that?

A:  Wait.

Q:  I live in Los Angeles; with KCAL not available, how do I see the Dodgers games?

A:  Get your lazy butt in the car, go to the stadium and buy tickets.

Q:  I’m an NFL fan, and I’m going to miss my team’s pre-season games.  Where else can I see them?

A:   See above.

Time Warner Cable admitted this morning extracting more revenue from existing customers was more important than attracting new ones, and long time subscribers responded by canceling service in above average numbers.

In a conference call largely hosted by incoming CEO Robert Marcus, a number of Wall Street analysts listened to Marcus’ vision for Time Warner under his forthcoming leadership. Marcus offered competing, potentially incompatible visions in his defense of a lackluster quarter: charge existing customers higher prices for service to boost average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) while also improving the customer-company relationship.

For most of 2013, Time Warner has been aggressively moving away from heavily discounted promotional offers to attract customers. Both outgoing CEO Glenn Britt and Marcus have repeatedly stressed heavy discounting of service during the past two years is now over, and the company is looking forward to resetting prices higher when the promotions end later this year.

It is part of the company’s plan to “drive better performance in the residential business.” An unfortunate side effect is that the company continues to lose video and phone customers and its broadband service growth has been so slow, one analyst called it “anemic.” The company’s quarterly results show Time Warner added only 8,000 new broadband customers in the last three months. The company still earned $1.42 billion from broadband sales alone over the last three months, mostly because of rising broadband bills.

Courtesy: Jacobson

Offsetting that growth, TWC lost 191,000 residential video subscribers, leaving it with about 11.9 million video customers. At least 56,000 customers also pulled the plug on Time Warner Cable telephone service.

“As we discussed before, this [new pricing] approach represents a conscious decision to pursue subscribers with higher ARPU, higher profit and lower churn even if that means fewer connects,” said Marcus as he defended the results. “So it’s not a surprise that as in the first quarter of 2013, subscriber net adds were down in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis.”

As customers deal with increasing prices for cable television and broadband service and the irritation of modem rental fees, many are cutting back on their packages to keep their bill stable.

Marcus admitted customer sign ups of triple play — phone, broadband, and cable TV service — were way down in the second quarter and a lot fewer single and double-play customers were convinced to upgrade. The company’s promotional offers have come with a higher price and slower broadband service, often only 3Mbps.

In a number of markets, especially in the midwest, customers are shopping around for other providers. They are finding AT&T U-verse to be a formidable competitor.

“Throughout the quarter, U-verse was pretty aggressive with a beacon price of $79 for their triple play and $49 for their double play,” said Marcus. “I would characterize those as aggressive promotional prices, and they had an impact. I would say that the impact was more pronounced as the quarter wore on. We’ve now responded to that in the market, and I expect that our relative performance should improve there.”

But for much of the rest of the country where competition is less robust, Time Warner intends to continue to hold the line on pricing and resist discounting even if it means subscribers threaten to cancel.

Time Warner Cable has gotten itself ready for an onslaught of unhappy customers, assigning nearly 1,000 employees to staff four national customer retention centers dedicated to trying to persuade customers not to leave. But these specially trained representatives have a dual mission — keep customers with Time Warner Cable, but don’t give away the store doing so.

Stock buybacks and shareholder dividends were a major priority for Time Warner Cable’s cash on hand.

“Not only are our reps saving more customers, they are also preserving more ARPU among the customers they save,” said Marcus. “As promotional roll-offs peak in the second half of 2013, we expect that our new retention capabilities will drive better revenue growth.”

In the broadband market, Time Warner changed little in the second quarter except to raise prices on service and equipment. Marcus could only point to the addition of 3,500 new Wi-Fi hotspots, mostly in New York City, as its signature achievement over the past three months.

On the residential side, broadband revenues were up 12.5%, but most of that growth came from a combination of the modem lease fee, an increase in the number of 30/5 and 50/5Mbps customers and a successful Turbo promotion.

Results for video and voice were considerably worse. Revenues were down about 4%.

But the company managed to report its highest ARPU ever, with customers now paying an average of more than $105 a month for Time Warner service. Most of that increase came from rising broadband prices.

Time Warner Cable has also been preoccupied with spending excess cash on hand to buy back its own stock, which creates shareholder value. Time Warner expects to spend at least $2.5 billion on stock buybacks this year. Shareholders also received $829 million in dividends (113% of Time Warner’s free cash flow).

“We repurchased 6.6 million shares for $638 million, and through July, we have repurchased approximately 83 million shares at an average cost of around $78.50 per share since we began the program in November of 2010,” reported chief financial officer Arthur T. Minson.

Time Warner Cable’s Board of Directors recently approved increasing spending up to $4 billion on stock buybacks.

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WRGB in Albany reports Time Warner Cable customers are angry about another price hike on the company’s modem lease fee effective Aug. 18. WRGB recommends customers buy their own modems to avoid the fee. Time Warner Cable’s Glenn Britt admitted earlier the fee is really just a hidden rate increase. (3 minutes)

Although cable and phone companies love to declare themselves part of a fiercely competitive telecommunications marketplace, it is increasingly clear that is more fairy tale than reality, with each staking out their respective market niches to live financially comfortable ever-after.

In the last week, Time Warner Cable managed to alienate its broadband customers announcing another rate increase and a near-doubling of the modem rental fee the company only introduced as its newest money-maker last fall. What used to cost $3.95 a month will be $5.99 by August.

The news of the “price adjustment” went over like a lead balloon for customers in Albany, N.Y., many who just endured an 18-hour service outage the day before, wiping out phone and Internet service.

“They already get almost $60 a month from me for Internet service that cuts out for almost an entire day and now they want more?” asked Albany-area customer Randy Dexter. “If Verizon FiOS was available here, I’d toss Time Warner out of my house for good.”

Alas, the broadband magic sparkle ponies have not brought Dexter or millions of other New Yorkers the top-rated fiber optic network Verizon stopped expanding several years ago. The Wall Street dragons complained about the cost of stringing fiber. Competition, it seems, is bad for business.

In fact, Verizon Wireless and Time Warner Cable are now best friends. Verizon Wireless customers can get a fine deal — not on Verizon’s own FiOS service — but on Time Warner’s cable TV. Time Warner Cable originally thought about getting into the wireless phone business, but it was too expensive. It invites customers to sign up for Verizon Wireless service instead.

This is hardly a “War of the Roses” relationship either. Wall Street teaches that price wars are expensive and competitive shouting matches do not represent a win-win scenario for companies and their shareholders. The two companies get along fine where Verizon has virtually given up on DSL. Time Warner Cable actually faces more competition from AT&T’s U-verse, which is not saying much. The obvious conclusion: unless you happen to live in a FiOS service area, the best deals and fastest broadband speeds are not for you.

Further upstate in the Rochester-Finger Lakes Region, Time Warner Cable faces an even smaller threat from Frontier Communications. It’s a market share battle akin to United States Cable fighting a war against Uzbekistan Telephone. Frontier’s network in upstate New York is rich in copper and very low in fiber. Frontier has lost landline customers for years and until very recently its broadband DSL offerings have been so unattractive, they are a marketplace afterthought.

Rochester television reporter Rachel Barnhart surveyed the situation on her blog:

Think about this fact: Time Warner, which raked in more than $21 billion last year, has 700,000 subscribers in the Buffalo and Rochester markets. I’m not sure how many of those are businesses. But the Western New York market has 875,000 households. That’s an astounding market penetration. Does this mean Time Warner is the best choice or the least worse option?

That means Time Warner Cable has an 80 percent market share. Actually, it is probably higher because that total number of households includes those who either don’t want, need, or can’t afford broadband service. Some may also rely on limited wireless broadband services from Clearwire or one of the large cell phone companies.

In light of cable’s broadband successes, it is no surprise Time Warner is able to set prices and raise them at will. Barnhart, who has broadband-only service, is currently paying Time Warner $37.99 a month for “Lite” service, since reclassified as 1/1Mbps. That does not include the modem rental fee or the forthcoming $3 rate hike. Taken together, “Lite” Internet is getting pricey in western New York at $47 a month.

Retiring CEO Glenn Britt believes there is still money yet to be milked out of subscribers. In addition to believing cable modem rental fees are a growth industry, Britt also wants customers to begin thinking about “the usage component” of broadband service. That is code language for consumption-based billing — a system that imposes an arbitrary usage limit on customers, usually at current pricing levels, with steep fees for exceeding that allowance.

Rochester remains a happy hunting ground for Internet Overcharging schemes because the only practical, alternative broadband supplier is Frontier Communications, which Time Warner Cable these days dismisses as an afterthought (remember that 80 percent market share). Without a strong competitor, Time Warner has no problem experimenting with new “usage”-priced tiers.

Time Warner persists with its usage priced plans, despite the fact customers overwhelmingly have told the company they don’t want them. Time Warner’s current discount offer — $5 off any broadband tier if you keep usage under 5GB a month, has been a complete marketing failure. Despite that, Time Warner is back with a slightly better offer — $8 off that 5GB usage tier and adding a new 30GB usage limited option in the Rochester market. We have since learned customers signing up for that 30GB limit will get $5 off their broadband service.

In nearby Ohio, the average broadband user already exceeds Time Warner’s 30GB pittance allowance, using 52GB a month. Under both plans, customers who exceed their allowance are charged $1 per GB, with overlimit fees currently not to exceed $25 per month. That 30GB plan would end up costing customers an extra $22 a month above the regular, unlimited plan. So much for the $5 savings.

Unfortunately, as long as Time Warner has an 80 percent market share, the same mentality that makes ever-rising modem rental fees worthwhile might also one day give the cable company courage to remove the word “optional” from those usage limited plans. With usage nearly doubling every year, Time Warner might see consumption billing as its maximum moneymaker.

In 2009, Time Warner valued unlimited-use Internet at $150 as month, which is what they planned to charge before pitchfork and torch-wielding customers turned up outside their offices.

Considering the company already earns 95 percent gross margin on broadband service before the latest round of price increases, one has to ask exactly when the company will be satisfied it is earning enough from broadband service. I fear the answer will be “never,” which is why it is imperative that robust competition exist in the broadband market to keep prices in check.

Unfortunately, as long as Wall Street and providers decide competition is too hard and too unprofitable, the price increases will continue.