A Wall Street analyst has urged Time Warner Cable’s competitors to deny promotional pricing to new customers switching providers because of the CBS blackout.

“While Time Warner Cable’s competitors appear to be resisting predatory marketing campaigns to take advantage of the CBS blackout, at least so far, we believe they need to go even further to cause real industry change,” wrote BTIG Research’s Richard Greenfield. “While TWC’s competitors cannot stop consumers from switching their video service provider due to the loss of CBS, they could make it less appealing to switch due to a programming dispute blackout.”

Greenfield wants providers to support solidarity against programmers like CBS by not taking advantage of the situation to poach subscribers away from Time Warner with attractive promotional packages and pricing. He believes it will ultimately lead to lower prices for consumers.

“The only way to begin to shift leverage in these content negotiations is for [providers] to start supporting each other in programming disputes, rather than try to steal each others’ subscribers,” said Greenfield. “We believe it would make strategic sense for all major [providers] to add a script to their website and call-center new customer acquisition process that asks whether a customer is switching due to the Time Warner CBS dispute (or whatever disputes are currently on-going in the country).  If the answer is ‘Yes’ we believe that consumer should not be offered promotional pricing and should be informed that these types of disputes are becoming a problem for all video providers — essentially teaching consumers that ‘switching won’t help’ during these short-term programming battles.”

DirecTV is among the first to express solidarity with its cable competitor, issuing a statement last weekend:

DirecTV has certainly had its share of these battles, so we applaud Time Warner Cable for fighting back against exorbitant programming cost increases. We are also appalled to learn that CBS is now punishing DirecTV customers, who may happen to have Time Warner as their Internet provider, by denying them access to CBS content online.

Greenfield’s suggestion essentially asks that cable operators and telephone companies agree not to compete. His idea also penalizes consumers caught in the middle of programming disputes that customers ultimately pay for in the form of higher bills. We think it comes dangerously close to illegal, anti-competitive behavior. Even Greenfield seems to understand his suggestion comes close to the line.

“It is obviously illegal for MVPD’s to collude,” Greenfield concludes. “However, it is not illegal for each to do what is right for the future of their business, even if it means passing on short term opportunity.  Tacit cooperation is the best strategy we see available, barring government intervention.”

What is right for business is not right for consumers. Stop the Cap! strongly recommends those signing up with a competitor over programming blackouts avoid explaining their reasons for switching. As well as being none of their business, being candid could cost consumers valuable money-saving discounts and promotions that other new customers receive.

We believe the most effective “game-changer” in the fight between providers and broadcasters demanding 600% rate increases for programming available for free on any television is technology like Aereo, which picks up over-the-air stations with dime-sized antennas and provides customers with online streams of those channels. This technology, if found legal, could eventually be adopted by cable operators to avoid retransmission consent payments altogether or use as effective leverage in negotiations. Aereo is a win-win for providers and consumers. Telling providers to deny consumers new customer pricing just because someone wants to get missing programming back is not.

We’d remind Greenfield of this universal truth: cable bills never go down unless a customers downgrades or threatens to leave.

After repeated extensions, Time Warner Cable yanked several channels from your cable dial today, and before you ask, you are -not- entitled to any refunds. So don’t ask. (Actually, ask anyway.)

The affected channels are:

• CBS Owned-and-Operated TV stations in the following cities:
  Los Angeles:  KCBS and KCAL-Ind.
  New York:  WCBS
  Dallas-Ft. Worth:  KTVT-CBS and KTXA-Ind.
  Boston:  WBZ-CBS and WSBK-Ind. (carried in parts of NH and MA)
  Chicago:  WBBM-CBS (carried in parts of WI)
  Denver:  KCNC-CBS (carried in Gunnison and Telluride)
  Detroit:  WKBD-CW (carried in parts of OH)
  Pittsburgh:  KDKA-CBS and WPCW-CW (carried in parts of OH)
• Showtime
• The Movie Channel (TMC)
• Flix
• Smithsonian Channel

Phillip “FAQ” Dampier

If your local CBS station is not on this list, you will still be able to watch CBS programming because the dispute only affects local stations directly owned/operated by CBS. But cable subscribers nationwide may notice the loss of the cable networks and premium movie channels, if one subscribes.

As a courtesy, Time Warner Cable has elected to throw Showtime subscribers a bone (and avoid having to pay any refunds) by turning on Starz and Encore for affected customers. (If you happen to find anything worthwhile to watch on Starz, please post a comment and let the rest of us know what we are missing.) Encore is a better choice, but customers should feel free to arrange their own “credit” by canceling Showtime until the dispute is resolved. Time Warner Cable was running a promotion offering HBO and Cinemax for $5 a month each for six months to a year. Inquire if that option is still available if you are feeling premium movie channel withdrawal.

“We deeply regret being forced into this position by CBS, but we’re prepared to stand by our customers and do what it takes to fight these unreasonable demands,” writes Time Warner Cable.

In the meantime, we’ve helped massage Time Warner’s FAQ and rubbed in some truth extract:

Q:  Dear Time Warner Cable Assassins of Joy: Now that you’ve stopped carrying the channels I am still paying for, where can I find the darn shows I’m missing?

A:   There are any number of places, including free over-the-air using an antenna, if you remember what that looks like, plus some places online for free.  In addition, in NYC only, CBS is available through Aereo, which is currently offering a one-month-free-trial at www.aereo.com. Just don’t think about dropping your entire cable television package once you discover Aereo works well enough for you and you don’t need us to delete $70 a month from your wallet and recreate it in ours. Pretty please.

Courtesy: Rich Greenfield, BTIG

For national network prime time shows:

• Visit www.CBS.com to see recent airings (mostly repeats except for Stephen King’s ‘Small Town Under Glass’) of their primetime shows. Thank us we are not capping your Internet usage, sticking it to you for watching unauthorized shows (the ones we don’t own) for free.
• In addition, many primetime programs are available via national online services like Amazon.com, Hulu.com, iTunes.com, or Netflix.com, some for free, some as part of a subscription fee that is almost always far less than the pillaging prices we charge.

For daytime soap operas if you still bother to watch those:  www.cbs.com for free

For local news, weather, and sports:  Remember that your other local broadcast stations remain available on the Time Warner Cable lineup, along with NY1/YNN in select markets (because you want to get your local news from a wholly owned Time Warner Cable news network — the one that often shills our own products). And some of the local CBS stations stream their local newscasts for free over the Internet. Again, worship us for not capping your broadband. Check your local station’s website for information.

For syndicated shows like Dr. Oz, Ellen, Katie, and others:  They are probably all repeats anyway and how many times do you need to be told you are living your life all wrong. It’s summer. Go outside. Be happy. If you insist, most of those shows share either full episodes or highlights via their own websites, for free.

For shows that appear on Showtime, or movies:  Showtime makes some episodes and clips available for free at Sho.com and at Hulu.com. Because nothing equals the experience of watching an entire show like a 30 second clip! Other episodes can be found at paid services like Amazon.com, Netflix.com, and on iTunes. So while you are still paying us for those premium movie channels, go and pay someone else too. And remember that, as a courtesy so we don’t actually have to refund your money, we are providing replacement programming from Starz and Encore on a temporary basis.  Showtime and TMC customers should look in your onscreen guide for the Starz and Encore channel numbers.

For shows on Smithsonian:  If you can find the channel on our 1,000 channel lineup, you are better than us. If you actually watched any shows on Smithsonian, you can get by with similar shows on Discovery, National Geographic, TLC, Animal Planet, and many others, as long as you steer well clear of Honey Boo Boo. She’s a national treasure too, we know, but not enough to be on the Smithsonian Channel.

Frequently Asked Questions Not Well-Answered

Q. Why is this happening?

A:  $$$. We collect, count and stack your money for the pleasure of our executives and shareholders and now other programmers dare to want some of it. We’re not going to let that happen unless you give us more than enough to replace what we’re giving them.

Q:  This kind of blackout seems to happen to Time Warner Cable all the time; Screw you, I’m going to switch to another provider.

A:   Screw you right back. Unfortunately, these kinds of blackouts have occurred more often over the past few years—last year, over 80 broadcast TV stations withheld their channels from all kinds of video providers, including cable, satellite, and telephone companies because they smell the cash we currently get to play patty-cake with.  It’s not just Time Warner Cable, silly—every provider is at risk for losing the right to carry these channels that are available for free over the air to an antenna. Because when this kind of money is involved, all sorts of hell breaks loose. Switching to another provider won’t prevent similar blackouts from happening to you in the future, and you could miss some of your favorite programming, like…  NY1 in New York City. (Really.) We’ve been raising your rates and making you pay for hundreds of channels you never watch for years. Remember, sometimes the evil you know is better than the evil you don’t. We’re talking to you AT&T U-verse.

Q:  It seems odd that CBS SportsNet is still available, when the main CBS channel isn’t.  Why is that?

A:  Wait.

Q:  I live in Los Angeles; with KCAL not available, how do I see the Dodgers games?

A:  Get your lazy butt in the car, go to the stadium and buy tickets.

Q:  I’m an NFL fan, and I’m going to miss my team’s pre-season games.  Where else can I see them?

A:   See above.

Time Warner Cable admitted this morning extracting more revenue from existing customers was more important than attracting new ones, and long time subscribers responded by canceling service in above average numbers.

In a conference call largely hosted by incoming CEO Robert Marcus, a number of Wall Street analysts listened to Marcus’ vision for Time Warner under his forthcoming leadership. Marcus offered competing, potentially incompatible visions in his defense of a lackluster quarter: charge existing customers higher prices for service to boost average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) while also improving the customer-company relationship.

For most of 2013, Time Warner has been aggressively moving away from heavily discounted promotional offers to attract customers. Both outgoing CEO Glenn Britt and Marcus have repeatedly stressed heavy discounting of service during the past two years is now over, and the company is looking forward to resetting prices higher when the promotions end later this year.

It is part of the company’s plan to “drive better performance in the residential business.” An unfortunate side effect is that the company continues to lose video and phone customers and its broadband service growth has been so slow, one analyst called it “anemic.” The company’s quarterly results show Time Warner added only 8,000 new broadband customers in the last three months. The company still earned $1.42 billion from broadband sales alone over the last three months, mostly because of rising broadband bills.

Courtesy: Jacobson

Offsetting that growth, TWC lost 191,000 residential video subscribers, leaving it with about 11.9 million video customers. At least 56,000 customers also pulled the plug on Time Warner Cable telephone service.

“As we discussed before, this [new pricing] approach represents a conscious decision to pursue subscribers with higher ARPU, higher profit and lower churn even if that means fewer connects,” said Marcus as he defended the results. “So it’s not a surprise that as in the first quarter of 2013, subscriber net adds were down in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis.”

As customers deal with increasing prices for cable television and broadband service and the irritation of modem rental fees, many are cutting back on their packages to keep their bill stable.

Marcus admitted customer sign ups of triple play — phone, broadband, and cable TV service — were way down in the second quarter and a lot fewer single and double-play customers were convinced to upgrade. The company’s promotional offers have come with a higher price and slower broadband service, often only 3Mbps.

In a number of markets, especially in the midwest, customers are shopping around for other providers. They are finding AT&T U-verse to be a formidable competitor.

“Throughout the quarter, U-verse was pretty aggressive with a beacon price of $79 for their triple play and $49 for their double play,” said Marcus. “I would characterize those as aggressive promotional prices, and they had an impact. I would say that the impact was more pronounced as the quarter wore on. We’ve now responded to that in the market, and I expect that our relative performance should improve there.”

But for much of the rest of the country where competition is less robust, Time Warner intends to continue to hold the line on pricing and resist discounting even if it means subscribers threaten to cancel.

Time Warner Cable has gotten itself ready for an onslaught of unhappy customers, assigning nearly 1,000 employees to staff four national customer retention centers dedicated to trying to persuade customers not to leave. But these specially trained representatives have a dual mission — keep customers with Time Warner Cable, but don’t give away the store doing so.

Stock buybacks and shareholder dividends were a major priority for Time Warner Cable’s cash on hand.

“Not only are our reps saving more customers, they are also preserving more ARPU among the customers they save,” said Marcus. “As promotional roll-offs peak in the second half of 2013, we expect that our new retention capabilities will drive better revenue growth.”

In the broadband market, Time Warner changed little in the second quarter except to raise prices on service and equipment. Marcus could only point to the addition of 3,500 new Wi-Fi hotspots, mostly in New York City, as its signature achievement over the past three months.

On the residential side, broadband revenues were up 12.5%, but most of that growth came from a combination of the modem lease fee, an increase in the number of 30/5 and 50/5Mbps customers and a successful Turbo promotion.

Results for video and voice were considerably worse. Revenues were down about 4%.

But the company managed to report its highest ARPU ever, with customers now paying an average of more than $105 a month for Time Warner service. Most of that increase came from rising broadband prices.

Time Warner Cable has also been preoccupied with spending excess cash on hand to buy back its own stock, which creates shareholder value. Time Warner expects to spend at least $2.5 billion on stock buybacks this year. Shareholders also received $829 million in dividends (113% of Time Warner’s free cash flow).

“We repurchased 6.6 million shares for $638 million, and through July, we have repurchased approximately 83 million shares at an average cost of around $78.50 per share since we began the program in November of 2010,” reported chief financial officer Arthur T. Minson.

Time Warner Cable’s Board of Directors recently approved increasing spending up to $4 billion on stock buybacks.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WRGB Albany TWC Modem Fee 7-31-13.flv[/flv]

WRGB in Albany reports Time Warner Cable customers are angry about another price hike on the company’s modem lease fee effective Aug. 18. WRGB recommends customers buy their own modems to avoid the fee. Time Warner Cable’s Glenn Britt admitted earlier the fee is really just a hidden rate increase. (3 minutes)

Prism is CenturyLink’s fiber to the neighborhood service, similar to AT&T U-verse.

Western Eagle County will be among the first areas in Colorado to get CenturyLink’s fiber-to-the-neighborhood service upgrade, dubbed Prism TV.

“Eagle County is joining the first 10 markets to get Prism TV,” said Abel Chavez, CenturyLink’s director of state and local government affairs.

The phone company plans to introduce the service gradually once franchise renewal agreements with the county are complete.

The upgrade is an important once for Eagle County, which will see improved service well before residents in larger Colorado cities like Denver.

“Since we already have a franchise here, this is an opportunity to do two things — upgrade it and test it in a rural market,” Chavez told the Eagle Valley Enterprise. “In this case, a small mountain community is going to have something that Denver doesn’t have yet and it’s all going in on our existing network. We’re not adding to our footprint.”

CenturyLink’s service area includes towns in the western half of the county, Eagle and Gypsum. Comcast is the dominant cable provider in Colorado and has the largest market share of customers in the eastern half of the county.

CenturyLink primarily markets Prism as a television service, although it also supports 25Mbps broadband, depending on line quality.

Much like AT&T U-verse, Prism provides a fiber broadband connection to a box positioned in the neighborhood. From that box, the customer’s current copper telephone line is used to bring an enhanced version of DSL inside the home that divides bandwidth for Internet access, telephone, and cable television service.

A typical triple-play, new customer Prism package in Las Vegas runs around $115 a month, price-locked for 24 months. The whole house DVR and HD channels add another $10-15 a month after the first three months.

Included in the package:

• 10Mbps broadband
• CenturyLink Home Phone with Unlimited Nationwide Calling
• Prism TV (120 channels)
• Free installation, first set-top box included ($8.99/mo each additional box), DVR with up to four concurrent recordings

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CenturyLink Prism Demo Summer 2013.flv[/flv]

CenturyLink produced this demonstration video of Prism TV’s capabilities. CenturyLink does not seem to emphasize improved broadband service as part of the Prism experience in its marketing. (2 minutes)

Several million Time Warner Cable and Bright House customers in New York, California, Texas and Florida will lose CBS programming this Wednesday at 5pm if the three companies do not iron out their differences in contract renewal negotiations.

CBS and Time Warner Cable have taken their fight public over retransmission consent talks that have left the two sides far apart. The cable operators say CBS has gotten greedy asking for as much as 600 percent more than what the cable companies paid under the old agreement that expired in June. CBS says the fact its stations have never been thrown off cable systems before is proof that their terms are reasonable.

Cable analysts say CBS’ old agreement cost the two cable operators between 75 cents and one dollar a month per subscriber. Most believe CBS is now asking for between $1-2 a month per subscriber to renew the agreement.

CBS wants to be paid at levels comparable to the most popular cable networks and believes the fact the network is now number one in the ratings delivers negotiating power. CBS has not made its aggressive position on carriage fees a secret. Executives have told investors it plans to quadruple cable and satellite fees over the next four years with a goal to raise an extra $1 billion. Wall Street analysts have recommended the stock to investors and its value has risen at least 65% in the past year.

But Time Warner Cable spokeswoman Maureen Huff believes CBS is asking for too much.

“Broadcasters have already hit customers with 84 broadcaster blackouts in the past 18 months,” Huff said in a statement. “Les Moonves, president and CEO of CBS, has always been outspoken about the programming fees he believes he deserves. He has said ‘the sky is the limit’ when talking about the price he thinks he deserves for his CBS stations, and he clearly means it. He doesn’t seem to care about our customers’ budgets or the going rates for CBS programming.”

But critics contend Time Warner Cable does not come to the table with clean hands on the issue of expensive carriage fees. Time Warner Cable seemed less concerned about the skyrocketing costs of cable programming when it set high asking prices for TWC-owned regional sports networks SportsNet and TWC Deportes.

CBS says it deserves at least as much as what Time Warner Cable pays Time Warner Entertainment’s TNT, which reportedly charges at least $1 a subscriber.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CBS Time Warner Cable Customers about to lose CBS 7-20-13.mp4[/flv]

CBS is now running this ad in New York City warning Time Warner Cable customers they are about to lose WCBS-TV, the local CBS affiliate.  (1 minute)

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Time Warner Cable CBS Outrageous Fees 7-20-13.mp4[/flv]

Not so fast, says Time Warner Cable. CBS wants 600% more for WCBS, driving up the price customers pay for cable television. (1 minute)

If no agreement is reached, CBS expects customers will lose access to its network-0wned affiliates starting at 5pm Wednesday afternoon. Although most media reports are focused on the fact CBS stations in New York, Los Angeles, and Dallas are affected, not all are CBS affiliates. In fact, customers in a few other cities will also find their CBS-owned stations dropped:

• New York: WCBS (TWC)
• Los Angeles: KCBS, KCAL (TWC)
• Dallas-Ft. Worth: KTVT, KTXA (TWC)
• St. Petersburg-Tampa: WTOG (Bright House)
• Riverhead (Long Island): WLNY (TWC)

Some Bright House customers are also affected by dispute.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Time Warner Cable and Bright House would also drop Showtime from lineups across the country in a retaliatory move, but this was not confirmed by either cable company.

Station owners are seeking higher retransmission consent payments from cable and satellite operators to establish additional sources of revenue. Pay television customers ultimately foot the bill with higher priced cable television service. As prices rise, pay television operators increasingly worry customers will either defect to a competitor or cut the cable television cord for good. Some operators are adopting a tougher stance, willing to drop stations from the lineup.

Most station owners believe the larger number of stations they own or control, the less likely a cable operator will actually throw a station off the lineup. This month, Wisconsin-based Journal Broadcast Group is threatened with the loss of nearly half of its 15 television stations on Time Warner Cable systems in Wisconsin, Nebraska, and California:

• WTMJ Milwaukee
• KMTV Omaha
• WGBA Green Bay/Appleton, Wisc.
• WACY Green Bay/Appleton, Wisc.
• KMIR Palm Springs, Calif.
• KPSE Palm Springs, Calif.

Bigger is better

Some stations have been off the lineup since July 10 in some markets, with digital sub-channels first removed by Time Warner Cable in a warning shot in others.

Larger station owners like Sinclair Broadcast Group have felt less threatened. The more stations under negotiation, the more leverage station owners have in contract renewal talks.

Sinclair is further boosting its position in the local TV station business, spending almost $2 billion in the last 18 months buying 81 more television stations.

Sinclair owns and operates, programs or provides advertising sales services to 140 television stations in 72 markets nationwide. They are a force to be reckoned with. Despite angry words over the station owner’s asking price, both Dish Networks and DirecTV renewed their carriage agreements with Sinclair without disrupting viewing.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSJ Retransmission Dispute TWC CBS 7-20-13.flv[/flv]

The Wall Street Journal’s “Moneybeat” looks into the retransmission dispute between CBS and Time Warner Cable and what impact it may have on viewers. (5 minutes)