AT&T pays a lot of money — millions annually — to make sure its business agenda does not run into political or legislative roadblocks in Washington, D.C.  With dozens of members of Congress effectively on AT&T’s campaign contribution payroll and the company’s unparalleled skill at convincing non-profit organizations to advocate for its interests, worrying about the government’s antitrust views on its proposed buyout of Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile was the least of its troubles.

“It’s a done deal,” several analysts predicted shortly after the deal was announced, especially after AT&T demonstrated its confidence level in the merger was as high as the enormous $6 billion dollar breakup concession payable to Telekom if it ever fell apart.

Then the government dared to put its two cents in, in the form of a “are you kidding me?”-lawsuit courtesy of the U.S. Department of Justice.  It seems, in the words of some Beltway cynics, the Obama Administration can manage to see a clear cut case of anti-competitive behavior when given enough time.

Since the lawsuit was announced on Aug. 31, it has been “all-hands-on-deck” for the company’s government relations division, packed full of the company’s top lobbyists.  While company lawyers desperately attempt to block what it sees as “pile on” objections and lawsuits from worried competitors, Sprint-Nextel in particular, AT&T lobbyists are trying to compromise away the Justice Department case with proposals of concessions and giveaways to make approval more palatable.

Further north, as fall turns into winter in New York’s financial district, Wall Street analysts are cold on the troubled deal themselves.

The Financial Times reports most analysts think there is now less than a 50-50 chance the merger will be completed unless the two companies agree to disgorge themselves of market share, territories, and increasing “shareholder value” that will come from eventual rate increases a wireless duopoly would inevitably bring.

Some are even less sanguine, predicting AT&T has only a 20 percent shot, and only if it sells off considerable chunks of valuable spectrum to competitors other than Verizon Wireless.

AT&T is retuning its “message” for the times, downplaying the original, ludicrous notion that urban-focused T-Mobile would be the keystone of a new era in 4G wireless service for rural America.  There is a reason T-Mobile isn’t the first choice for small town America’s cell phone buyers.

Instead, AT&T is now positioning the merger deal as a lifeboat for its troubled competitor.  AT&T suggests the number four carrier is in immediate peril — hemorrhaging customers, caught without a coherent 4G strategy, and an exodus of interest by its increasingly neglectful parent — Deutsche Telekom.

Could Time Warner Cable be an eventual part-owner of T-Mobile USA?

“Over the past two years, T-Mobile USA has been losing customers despite explosive demand for mobile broadband,” AT&T said in a statement this week. “T-Mobile USA has no clear path to 4G LTE, the industry’s next generation network, and its German parent, Deutsche Telekom, has said it would not continue to make significant investments in the United States.”

With AT&T predicting the demise of its smaller would-be cousin, consumers may not be in the mood to sign a two-year contract with a company that could soon be rechristened AT&T, especially those leaving AT&T for T-Mobile.

But don’t tell T-Mobile’s marketing department it’s a phone company on life support.  T-Mobile has beefed up its advertising and continues to irritate its larger competitors, particularly AT&T, with very aggressive pricing on its prepaid plans.

T-Mobile recently unveiled two disruptive $30 4G prepaid plans that offer either 1500 shared minutes/text messages and 30MB of data usage -or- 100 voice minutes combined with unlimited texting and up to 5GB of mobile data before the speed throttle kicks in.  Those prices are too low for AT&T and Verizon to ignore, especially when offered on a 4G network.

So far, the Justice Department shows no signs of backing down from their resolute opposition to the deal, minor concessions or not.  Shareholders may not appreciate giving the government too much of what it wants in order to win approval.  Washington lawmakers are split — virtually every Republican favors the merger, Democrats are less absolute, with most opposed.  Among those in favor, by how much is often a measure of what kind of campaign money AT&T has thrown their way.

AT&T absolutely denies they have a “Plan B” in case the merger eventually fails.  But the Times doubts that, reporting as time drags on, an alternative deal might emerge.  Some of the possibilities:

• T-Mobile USA could merge its spectrum with Dish Network, the satellite TV company, to launch a new 4G mobile operator in the USA;
• Combine forces (and spectrum) in a deal with leading U.S. cable companies like Cox, Comcast, and Time Warner Cable to launch a new cable-branded mobile operator;
• Sell or merge operations with MetroPCS, Leap Wireless’ Cricket, or one of several regional cell companies.

Perennial cable booster Craig Moffett from Sanford Bernstein predictably favors the cable solution, which would let companies offer a quad or quint-play of cable TV, wireless mobile broadband, wired broadband, phone, and cell phone service all on one bill.  It would also get the FCC off the backs of cable operators Time Warner and Comcast, who both control a total of 20MHz of favored wireless spectrum they have left unused since acquiring it at auction.  The Commission is increasingly irritated at companies who own unused spectrum at a time when the agency is trying to find additional frequencies for wireless providers.

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Bloomberg News questions AT&T’s claim its merger deal with T-Mobile will create 96,000 new jobs. [Nov. 8] (3 minutes)

Sprint customers are not thrilled with their new neighbors — the Apple iPhone 4S crowd that just moved into the network.

In several areas across the country, Sprint customers are howling about network speeds plummeting over the weekend, just as new iPhone owners began activating their phones.

“This is completely unacceptable,” Clive Dearstromm writes Stop the Cap!  “I have been a Sprint customer for five years, and while their network has never been the fastest, what has happened since Friday morning is ridiculous.  I can’t get beyond 210kbps.”

Dearstromm can’t even reliably access his e-mail on Sprint’s 3G network today, and Sprint has denied there is a service outage in Florida.

“Coincidence?  I think not,” he adds.

Other Sprint customers have also noticed, and are not happy.  In South Los Angeles, one customer reports speeds of around 170kbps on Sprint’s network.

“I moved from AT&T to Sprint because of unlimited data, but if this continues I might have to move back,” writes the customer. “I can’t even open a web page without taking a minute or two.”

Sprint denies there is a problem, telling PC Magazine:

“As always, Sprint is carefully monitoring the performance of the 3G network. We are looking into a small number of reports of slow data speeds when using the iPhone 4S, however there are also reports showing that Sprint’s network is the fastest, such as the Gizmodo report that came out earlier today. Speed tests represent a moment in time and are subject to many variables including weather, time of day, device, and proximity to a tower. Sprint will continue to monitor the feedback we are getting from our customers and will investigate and resolve any issues that may arise,” the company said in a statement.

PC Magazine questioned Gizmodo’s test results, suggesting Wi-Fi speed tests might be mucking up the accuracy of the results.  By this morning, it was evident Sprint was in last place, compared with AT&T and Verizon, and because speeds slowed the most during peak usage times, it’s a sure sign of network congestion.

Apple iPhone owners are a demanding crowd, and many of them aren’t happy about their Sprint iPhone experience either.  The new phone’s most important gimmick feature, Siri, does not work well on congested networks.

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WNYW New York Siri and iPhone Activations 10-17-11.mp4[/flv]

WNYW-TV in New York found frustration demonstrating Siri, with or without the Sprint network.  It’s also apparent wireless carriers had some early trouble activating the enormous number of new iPhone handsets.  (6 minutes)

Customers want an explanation and an idea of when things will get better.  Thus far, Sprint has asked customers with speed problems to report them to the company for investigation, but some customer service representatives candidly admitted Sprint was unprepared for the massive number of new customer activations since Friday morning.

If things don’t get better soon, some of Sprint’s newest customers may take their business elsewhere.  Sprint accepts returns and penalty-free contract terminations within 14 days of the phone’s activation (not purchase) on Sprint’s network.

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Amidst dozens of stories of the iPhone 4S’ arrival, West Palm Beach’s WPTZ caught our attention as local law enforcement had to be called in to manage the inevitable traffic jams wherever the new phone went on sale.  (2 minutes)

Sprint CEO Dan Hesse is now at risk of losing his job over decisions to increase spending to upgrade network performance and capacity.  In the last week, Sprint announced it will likely seek outside financing to accelerate the launch of its new 4G LTE network, while concurrently deciding to stop selling 4G WiMax smartphones that work on the troubled Clearwire network by the end of this year.

Wall Street hates companies spending money to upgrade their networks, particularly when there is little evidence Sprint will enhance profits with price increases or cut costs by limiting customers’ data usage.

For several major investment firms and banks, the last straw was Hesse’s revelation that the company will likely need to borrow money to complete its Network Vision plan, which calls for major upgrades of Sprint’s wireless network to support much faster data speeds for customers.  His earlier commitment to spend up to $20 billion on Sprint’s version of the Apple iPhone did not help matters.

Sprint’s stock price took a beating last week, sliding 26 percent to the lowest level since February 2009 as investors fled.

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KSHB Kansas City Sprint makes another new announcement 10-7-11.mp4[/flv]

KSHB in Kansas City reports Sprint intends to stop selling devices that work on the company’s existing 4G/Clearwire WiMax service by the end of this year in favor of Sprint’s forthcoming launch of a new 4G LTE network.  (1 minute)

The Detroit News reports an investor meeting with Sprint executives “grew ugly” after Hesse announced the company needed to spend money to upgrade and refused to show a clear pathway to enhanced profits earned from those upgrades.

Wall Street to Hesse: Don't Get Comfortable

“Hesse is on thin ice now,” Ed Snyder, an analyst with Charter Equity Research, told the newspaper. “One, perhaps two, more big mistakes and he’s probably gone.”

More than a half-dozen Wall Street analysts have slashed their ratings on the wireless company because they believe Sprint’s spending plans will hurt liquidity.

While customers are increasingly rewarding Hesse and Sprint for making customer service improvements and retaining customer friendly unlimited service plans, Wall Street shows no signs of being charitable to Hesse’s management of the Overland Park, Kansas company.

Ben Abramowitz, an analyst with Kaufman Bros., downgraded the stock to “hold” from “buy,” excoriating the company for expensive strategic shifts, including network upgrades and the company’s recent commitment to Apple to sell millions of Apple iPhones on Sprint’s network.

“Management credibility is lost with investors,” Abramowitz wrote.

Jonathan Schildkraut from Evercore Partners told CNBC the spending at Sprint may just be getting started.  Millions of customers remain connected to Nextel’s legacy iDEN network, which Sprint intends to decommission.  Schildkraut believes Sprint will have to provide deep discounts or free phones for displaced customers who will need to move to Sprint’s primary network.  He also notes that despite Sprint’s plans to abandon Clearwire’s WiMax network for 4G, the company will likely make further investments to maintain the partnership, and Clearwire’s network, for other purposes.

Sprint’s decision to adopt Apple’s iPhone and upgrade their network may make competitive sense against larger players AT&T and Verizon Wireless, but Schildkraut notes Apple commands top dollar for the popular phone — upwards of $600 on the wholesale level, which carriers in turn subsidize to lure customers to sign two-year contracts.  But Sprint would do well to consider Verizon’s experience with the iPhone, he says.  Most of Verizon’s iPhones were sold to customers who already owned smartphones.  That forced Verizon to subsidize up to $400 for each iPhone with no chance of increasing the average revenue collected from customers.  Investors were hoping the iPhone would instead attract budget handset customers who would upgrade to more expensive smartphone service plans.

Because the iPhone still does not support 4G technology, it seems less likely existing Sprint 4G WiMax smartphone owners would consider the Apple 4S an upgrade, and may hold off waiting for the anticipated iPhone 5.  But as Sprint begins to promote its forthcoming 4G LTE network, those Sprint customers using WiMax phones will be tempted to move to something else.  Either way, phone subsidies could create a significant drag on Sprint’s cash on hand at a time when the company is spending heavily on upgrading its network.

In the telecommunications business, upgraded service helps customers and spurs competition.  But it is nearly always the enemy of Wall Street unless a clear pathway to enhanced profits can be shown.  Investors may ultimately have the last word on those upgrades, and the person responsible for green-lighting them.  Hesse may learn that lesson first hand if the company can’t find a way to boost its stock price, and soon.

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Wall Street goes on the attack, unhappy that Sprint is spending their money to upgrade its networks for the benefit of Sprint customers.  CNBC covers all the business angles.  (6 minutes)

Apple is set to announce a new iPhone or two early this afternoon, but some in the tech media notice the frenetic excitement of the newest Apple sensation has been tempered, in part because many of the new software and cloud storage features will run into usage caps for some, speed throttles for everyone else.

The imminent arrival of anticipated models iPhone 4S, expected to sell at AT&T and Verizon and iPhone 5, which is rumored to be sold exclusively by Sprint during a short sales window, remains a big deal for all three carriers.  Verizon is reportedly allowing its call center employees to take unlimited overtime in preparation for the anticipated rush of questions and orders.  Sprint, which has 33 million customers on two-year contracts, has made a commitment to sell at least 30.5 million Apple iPhones over four years, if reports by the Wall Street Journal turn out to be accurate.  That’s a lot of phones.

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9 to 5 Mac shows off a mock image of what the newest iPhone 5 will probably look like. Pay close attention to the rounded edges and bezel.

Reports from the Wall Street Journal, WDAF-TV in Sprint’s home base of Kansas City, and Bloomberg News discuss the implications of Sprint’s deal with Apple.  (11 minutes)

That’s also an enormous gamble for Sprint, which is guaranteed no real profits from the venture until the year 2014.  If the company does win temporary exclusivity of an iPhone model that includes support for Sprint’s 4G network, WiMax, it will also bring the company an enormous number of new customers.

Among the most important new features of the phone is iOS 5, the latest version of Apple’s mobile operating system.  It comes loaded with new ways to burn through the stingy usage caps AT&T and Verizon Wireless are now providing their customers:

1. Over the air upgrades/activations: Apple’s notoriously huge software updates can be delivered to your wireless device without syncing it on a personal computer.  That means downloading software updates that can easily exceed the 200MB “light usage” plans some carriers sell budget-conscious customers;
2. Notification Center: Puts messages from e-mail, texts, and apps in a more convenient place to access and respond, increasing usage;
3. NewsStand: Leverages newspaper and magazine content in a single app, downloading content pushed to your phone, increasing usage;
4. Safari Sync: The Safari web browser will now sync with other instances of the browser on other devices to keep your reading list updated;
5. iMessage: Send texts, photos, and bandwidth-hogging video to friends and family, potentially driving up usage considerably;

But nothing is expected to spike wireless data usage like Apple’s new iCloud and iTunes Match, both of which manage and sync multimedia content and app purchases between devices “over the cloud.”  Unfortunately, repeated journeys of this type will burn through your usage allowance, and those with significant-sized libraries of photos, music, or videos are at serious risk of blasting past their usage cap.  Even customers who use more than 4-5GB on “unlimited data plans” sold by AT&T and Verizon will face the scourge of the speed throttle, which will reduce your zippy new phone to speeds that resemble dial-up.

AT&T and Verizon Apple iPhone customers are at the highest risk of facing the speed throttle, because Apple is not expected to support either company’s 4G data network.  Verizon only exempts 4G customers from the speed throttle when they use the 4G network.

The one company well-positioned to capitalize on these realities happens to be Sprint, which is keeping its truly unlimited data plan.  If Apple comes through with 4G support for Sprint, customers could not only say goodbye to AT&T and Verizon’s slower 3G speeds, they would also be able to rest easy knowing they won’t experience bill shock or a month in the dial-up speed penalty corner if deemed to be using “too much” service.

Customers of the two biggest carriers need to get familiar with switching to Wi-Fi as often as possible, and avoid using data-intensive features on usage-limited plans.  For Verizon and AT&T, it’s the best of all worlds — another two year contract for a usage-limited data plan that guarantees increased revenue and reduced costs.  For you, it’s an improved phone you can never use to its full potential.

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The Wall Street Journal reports there isn’t as much buzz over this year’s newest iPhone.  Bloomberg talks about the software changes in the new phone, and WWLP-TV in Springfield notes Verizon’s unions are calling on Americans to boycott the new phone until Verizon workers get a fair contract.  (8 minutes)

Update 2:00pm ET:  The Wall Street Journal reports the Sprint iPhone will not support their 4G network: According to people familiar with the company’s plans, the hotly anticipated device won’t operate on long-term evolution or WiMAX fourth-generation networks. Those wireless networks promise speedier downloading to mobile devices of episodes of television programs, as well as cute baby photos. The people said the device will work on 3G networks, which are broadly in use today and are the standard for the current iPhone 4. AT&T says its HSPA+ network has 4G-like speeds.

Update 4:00pm ET: The announcement event finally concludes with news the iPhone 5 is vaporware for now.  Sprint will end up with the same Apple 4S phone AT&T and Verizon will sell on their respective networks. The San Jose Mercury News was not thrilled with the event:

At a rollout that lacked some of the thrills and surprises of past product releases — and disappointed some in attendance who expected a completely made-over iPhone 5 — Siri stood out as the sexiest new feature on an iPhone that, contrary to speculation, isn’t any thinner or different looking on the outside than its predecessor, the iPhone 4.

“This phone is better than the iPhone 4 in many ways, even though it looks the same,” said Avi Greengart, an analyst with Current Analysis on hand for the unveiling before several hundred reporters, bloggers, analysts and other guests. “Sales will be wildly successful, but Apple fanboys’ expectations probably were not met today.”

The new phone, which will be available Oct. 15 after pre-orders begin Oct. 7, will cost $199 for a 16-gigabyte version, $299 for 32GB and $399 for 64 GB. It had been center-stage in the tech blogosphere for months, as pundits weighed in with what they saw as the most obvious bells and whistles Apple would unleash on their growing fan base. Tuesday, some were surprised by how wrong that had been.

The phone that everyone thought would be thinner than the iPhone 4, pretty much resembled its older sibling. But as analysts had suspected, the new phone is much faster, thanks for the new A5 chip inside it, and it has plenty of consumer-pleasing attributes, most of them inside the case.

Sprint, the last remaining major national wireless carrier without an Internet Overcharging scheme, will adopt one of its own on Oct. 2 when it begins limiting 3G/4G Mobile Hotspot customers to just 5GB of usage per month with a huge $50/GB overlimit fee (charged in megabyte increments).

SprintFeed shared the details in a copy of a leaked internal company newsletter announcing the changes:

(click to enlarge - Courtesy: SprintFeed)

It is important to note Sprint currently plans no usage limits on their tablet or smartphone customers — this usage cap only applies to customers signed up for the Mobile Hotspot option who use their phone’s Wi-Fi feature to connect other wireless devices.  Those with third-party tethering apps or other “unofficial” tethering schemes won’t face the usage cap either, so long as Sprint does not initiate a crackdown on customers without a company-sanctioned tethering plan.

Customers will automatically be “migrated” to the new $29.99 usage-limited Mobile Hotspot plan in October.  Affected customers will be notified of the changes in bill messages or postcards.  Sprint will not grandfather existing customers.

Some Sprint customers claim the company has always had a “secret 5GB cap” on the Mobile Hotspot feature, only enforced when customers considerably exceeded it, but this makes it official.

Sprint may be preparing its network for the introduction of iPhone 5, which Sprint is rumored to introduce early next month.