Stephenson: Payback time.

Six weeks after AT&T’s colossal $39 billion dollar merger with T-Mobile USA fell apart, AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson opened his checkbook and donated $30,800 (the maximum allowed under federal law) to the Republican National Committee.

That contribution dwarfs Stephenson’s largest previous donation over the past twenty years: $5,000, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Bloomberg reports that Stephenson took a credibility and pay hit from the merger debacle, forcing AT&T to turn over $4 billion in deal penalties to its rival, T-Mobile, including precious wireless spectrum. The deal’s collapse personally cost Stephenson more than $2 million in bonus pay.

Although AT&T is not commenting, Wall Street analysts are, and they suspect Stephenson is sending the Obama Administration a clear message that he is upset with the decision to challenge the merger. The rest of AT&T appears to be following suit, with nearly two-thirds of political contributions, mostly from company executives, going to the Republican party which has traditionally maintained a much more friendly relationship with the communications giant.

Several Republicans criticized the Justice Department and Federal Communications Commission for interfering with the merger deal which consumer advocates argued would reduce competition and raise prices for wireless services. Republicans have also expressed near-universal support for AT&T’s policy positions on Net Neutrality, community broadband, usage-based pricing, spectrum and price deregulation, removal of state oversight of telecommunications services, and marketplace consolidation.

AT&T is a major sponsor of this summer’s Republican National Convention in Tampa, Fla. Several former lobbyists for AT&T are now working with the Romney campaign and its money bundling operations on behalf of the Republican presidential candidate.

The center reports no personal political contributions from the heads of either Verizon Wireless or Sprint.

Roger Entner, an analyst with Recon Analytics in Dedham, Massachusetts, notes AT&T was still trying to make nice with Obama Administration officials as late as last December, sending ornate cupcakes to various administration officials, including those at the FCC.

Entner noted it didn’t work.

Verizon encourages customers to pig out on wireless-delivered streaming video.

Despite claims of a looming data usage crisis created by insufficient wireless spectrum, Verizon Wireless is introducing a new app that will encourage customers to find and watch streaming video on their mobile devices.

Viewdini premiers today on the Android platform, and Verizon hopes customers will use it to hunt down their favorite videos from Netflix, Hulu Plus, mSpot, and Comcast Xfinity, all from the Verizon Wireless app.

“We are just seeing a hunger for people wanting to watch video,” Verizon Wireless CEO Dan Mead said in an interview with AllThingsD. “I think this will capture the audience’s imagination.”

If customers use it to stream bandwidth heavy video on a tiered data plan, Verizon will also have the customer’s attention when the bill arrives.

Viewdini, considered one of Verizon’s “key product launches” for the year, does not amount to much on examination. The service does not host videos, it merely indexes them from other videocentric websites. The app will be exclusive to Verizon Wireless, but is not the company’s first foray in the competitive video streaming marketplace.

The Verizon Video app offers streamed video entertainment, but with a twist. Many titles offered by Verizon Video cannot be accessed while on Wi-Fi and require the company’s 3G or 4G network to watch, which counts against your usage allowance.

Mead

There is no indication yet whether Viewdini will have similar restrictions.

While Mead claims the company has several early warning indicators for customers approaching their monthly usage cap, he admits the company hopes to make additional revenue from customers who choose to exceed their allowance and buy additional data.

“We look at it as great flexibility for customers,” Mead called that choice.

While Verizon joins other wireless carriers in calling urgently for additional wireless spectrum, its marketing department does not recognize any wireless data shortage, and continues to introduce new products that encourage their customers to use an increasing amount of data, from which Verizon admits it will earn an increasing percentage of its revenue.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC FCC Chairman on Spectrum Crunch TV Everywhere 5-22-12.flv[/flv]

FCC Chariman Julius Genachowski spent the day hobnobbing with cable industry executives at the Boston Cable Show. In an interview with CNBC, Genachowski defended usage-based pricing, claiming it will bring lower prices to light users, spur “innovation” and enable consumer choice. Verizon Wireless customers on the cusp of being thrown off their grandfathered unlimited data plans may have a bone to pick with the FCC chairman about how innovative and enabling such policies have on them. Genachowski also suggests his controversial Net Neutrality policy is working, despite recent attempts by Comcast to exempt its content from the company’s usage cap and the wireless industry toying with toll-free data for preferred partners. Genachowski had little to offer consumers in the interview, instead suggesting his deregulatory stance on “innovation” will eventually benefit them.  (5 minutes)

What capacity crisis? This is about the money.

Yesterday’s news that Verizon Wireless plans to terminate the grandfathered unlimited data plans of their existing customers, forcing them to choose from a range of potentially more expensive shared data plans, would seem to be part and parcel of the cell phone industry’s need to move away from all-you-can-eat data to preserve what little spectrum they have to handle wireless data growth.

AT&T’s Randall Stephenson is on record stating AT&T has been hiking prices because of the imminent spectrum crisis and its inability to manage it with a buyout of T-Mobile:

“We’re running out of the airwaves that this traffic rides on,” Stephenson said. “There is a shortage of this spectrum. The more competitors you have, the less efficient the allocation of spectrum will be. It’s got to change. I don’t think the market’s going to accommodate the number of competitors there are in the landscape.” Stephenson noted AT&T’s data prices have increased 30% since the deal was killed.

“In a capacity-constrained environment we will manage usage-based data plans, increased pricing and managing the speeds of the highest volume users. These are all logical and necessary steps to manage utilization,” Stephenson said about AT&T’s rationing plans.

Over at Verizon Wireless, the announced end of unlimited data carried no such warnings of imminent wireless spectrum doom.  In fact, chief financial officer Fran Shammo on Wednesday said Verizon was just fine with spectrum and capacity for at least the next two years, if not longer (underlining ours):

“Well, I think prior to the deal that we announced with the cable companies and the acquisition of spectrum, we were saying that we were going to need a spectrum — we were going to need more spectrum by 2015. With the approval of this deal now, with the AWS, we think we are in very good shape here beyond 2015.

“In addition, the way our 3G spectrum is in individual slices, it is going to be very efficient for us to take slices out and re-appropriate that to the 4G technology. So I think that through that spectrum efficiency, also I think that there will be some help from the manufacturers in getting more equipment out there that utilizes spectrum more efficiently, although I don’t think that solves the problem, the industry is going to need more spectrum in the future because of the way that we see the guide path of consumption. But I think right now, we are in pretty good shape for at least the next several years.

[…] “So from a spectrum perspective, I think we are absolutely fine.”

Verizon's banking on more revenue when "unlimited data" is banished for good.

In fact, Verizon Wireless plans to reduce its spending on infrastructure projects designed to expand and enhance its wireless network, starting with its 3G service. Frammo (underlining ours):

“And now what you’re seeing is, if you will, a discontinued investment in 3G. Now we will have to continue to invest in that 3G from a maintenance and reliability perspective because we still have 90 million customers on that, but no more capacity or expansion of the 3G network. Our effort is going into 4G now and what I would say to you is look at Verizon on a total capital basis and I would say flat to slightly down. If you look at the components, what you will see is wireless decreased $850 million in the first quarter and that was because of the 3G buildout last year and not this year. But I think on a year-over-year basis, you could look to flat to down and that trend should continue.”

So what are Verizon’s primary goals in the near future? Increasing revenue. Frammo (underlining ours):

“So obviously, our goal is to increase cash flow. We came out of the first quarter with a $1.7 billion increase in our cash flow year-over-year, managing that CapEx. Our dividend policy is extremely important to us.“

Verizon Wireless handed out this statement this morning regarding the imminent demise of unlimited data:

“As we have stated publicly, Verizon Wireless has been re-evaluating its data pricing structure for some time, Customers have told us that they want to share data, similar to how they share minutes today. We are working on plans to provide customers with that option later this year.

“We will share specific details of the plans and any related policy changes well in advance of their introduction, so customers will have time to evaluate their choices and make the best decisions for their wireless service. It is our goal and commitment to continue to provide customers with the same high value service they have come to expect from Verizon Wireless.”

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WWLP Springfield Verizon Wireless Eliminating Unlimited Data 5-16-12.mp4[/flv]

WWLP in Springfield, Mass. explains to viewers the end of “unlimited data” from Verizon Wireless is near.  (1 minute)

Failure, Squared

LightSquared, Inc. filed for bankruptcy this afternoon after its plan to deliver high-speed wireless broadband nationwide was blocked by federal regulators over interference issues.

LightSquared was a pet project of billionaire hedge fund manager Phil Falcone, who earned his money pitching George Foreman grills and betting against sub-prime mortgages. Falcone invested billions in the satellite Internet venture, despite knowing the wireless technology had run into controversy with nearby satellite spectrum users who claimed it interfered with GPS reception.

Starting in 2010, Falcone convinced the FCC to approve his purchase of SkyTerra Communications, on the condition he construct a nationwide wireless broadband platform that could serve up to 260 million Americans. His hedge fund, Harbinger Capital Partners, spent $3 billion to gain control of 74 percent of the fledgling LightSquared project, despite Falcone’s knowledge the technology would potentially interfere with adjacent spectrum users. But Falcone dismissed those concerns, believing the interference problem was actually the fault of GPS technology that encroached on his spectrum or receivers that were not properly constructed to reject adjacent channel interference.

Falcone

Falcone’s steadfast belief in LightSquared, and the enormous financial backing he gave it, flew in the face of network engineers who reviewed the technology startup.

DirecTV was one company interested in the potential of LightSquared’s wireless satellite broadband back in 2004, but quickly backed away when even tentative tests flashed red lights of caution for DirecTV executives.

“A young engineer we had went and tested it and said, ‘It conflicts with GPS, it will never work.’ So we backed away immediately,” CEO Michael White told Business Week.

Falcone assumed any problems could be smoothed over with the federal government, White added.

With sufficient lobbying money and inside D.C. influence, he might have even overcome the alliance of GPS users that formed to fight the venture.  But in the public debate that followed, the GPS community eventually proved their case and the FCC put the project’s approval on hold. Now some parties involved in the LightSquared debacle are wondering if things might have gone better had the company been more sensitive to those GPS users and had found a way to overcome the interference problems.

Ultimately, the FCC delivered the death blow issuing an eventual revocation of the company’s license to operate its broadband system as presently designed.

Most of the group’s working partners have fled the LightSquared project, Harbinger has seen the biggest drop in assets in industry history — losing $23 billion from direct losses and client withdrawals, and billionaire Falcone is even accused of allegedly stiffing the contractor working on his Long Island home at least $1.2 million, according to a lien filed in Suffolk County.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg The Fall of Phil Falcone 4-16-12.flv[/flv]

Fabio Savoldelli, a finance professor at Columbia University, talks about Harbinger Capital Partners’ Phil Falcone and his investment in wireless broadband startup LightSquared Inc. It has been rough sailing for Falcone ever since he turned the project into a major priority for himself and his investors. Savoldelli shares how it all went wrong with Bloomberg News.  (8 minutes)