A Wall Street analyst has urged Time Warner Cable’s competitors to deny promotional pricing to new customers switching providers because of the CBS blackout.

“While Time Warner Cable’s competitors appear to be resisting predatory marketing campaigns to take advantage of the CBS blackout, at least so far, we believe they need to go even further to cause real industry change,” wrote BTIG Research’s Richard Greenfield. “While TWC’s competitors cannot stop consumers from switching their video service provider due to the loss of CBS, they could make it less appealing to switch due to a programming dispute blackout.”

Greenfield wants providers to support solidarity against programmers like CBS by not taking advantage of the situation to poach subscribers away from Time Warner with attractive promotional packages and pricing. He believes it will ultimately lead to lower prices for consumers.

“The only way to begin to shift leverage in these content negotiations is for [providers] to start supporting each other in programming disputes, rather than try to steal each others’ subscribers,” said Greenfield. “We believe it would make strategic sense for all major [providers] to add a script to their website and call-center new customer acquisition process that asks whether a customer is switching due to the Time Warner CBS dispute (or whatever disputes are currently on-going in the country).  If the answer is ‘Yes’ we believe that consumer should not be offered promotional pricing and should be informed that these types of disputes are becoming a problem for all video providers — essentially teaching consumers that ‘switching won’t help’ during these short-term programming battles.”

DirecTV is among the first to express solidarity with its cable competitor, issuing a statement last weekend:

DirecTV has certainly had its share of these battles, so we applaud Time Warner Cable for fighting back against exorbitant programming cost increases. We are also appalled to learn that CBS is now punishing DirecTV customers, who may happen to have Time Warner as their Internet provider, by denying them access to CBS content online.

Greenfield’s suggestion essentially asks that cable operators and telephone companies agree not to compete. His idea also penalizes consumers caught in the middle of programming disputes that customers ultimately pay for in the form of higher bills. We think it comes dangerously close to illegal, anti-competitive behavior. Even Greenfield seems to understand his suggestion comes close to the line.

“It is obviously illegal for MVPD’s to collude,” Greenfield concludes. “However, it is not illegal for each to do what is right for the future of their business, even if it means passing on short term opportunity.  Tacit cooperation is the best strategy we see available, barring government intervention.”

What is right for business is not right for consumers. Stop the Cap! strongly recommends those signing up with a competitor over programming blackouts avoid explaining their reasons for switching. As well as being none of their business, being candid could cost consumers valuable money-saving discounts and promotions that other new customers receive.

We believe the most effective “game-changer” in the fight between providers and broadcasters demanding 600% rate increases for programming available for free on any television is technology like Aereo, which picks up over-the-air stations with dime-sized antennas and provides customers with online streams of those channels. This technology, if found legal, could eventually be adopted by cable operators to avoid retransmission consent payments altogether or use as effective leverage in negotiations. Aereo is a win-win for providers and consumers. Telling providers to deny consumers new customer pricing just because someone wants to get missing programming back is not.

We’d remind Greenfield of this universal truth: cable bills never go down unless a customers downgrades or threatens to leave.

Big, Bigger, Biggest… Bigger Still

Comcast has plenty of available bandwidth to indefinitely expand its High Speed Internet services at speeds up to 3Gbps and believes it has won the legal right to grow its cable business as large as it likes.

Comcast executives admitted Wednesday they have more than enough network capacity to meet the demands of customers, both now and well into the future.

“With regard to usage and capacity, we feel the network is flexible and has plenty of opportunity to grow in capacity,” said Neil Smit, president and CEO of Comcast Cable Communications. Smit was responding to a Wall Street analyst asking about future capacity during a quarterly financial results conference call.

Smit noted that some of the biggest bandwidth users served by Comcast are businesses, and the cable operator was well-positioned to service them by extending fiber or deploying its Metro Ethernet product. Residential customers get increased bandwidth through neighborhood node splitting or DOCSIS 3 channel bonding that combines several channels together to increase speed and capacity.

Brian Roberts, CEO of Comcast Corporation, agreed with Smit, adding, “the more the consumer desires speed, the better that is for our company.”

Roberts noted DOCSIS 3.1 — the next generation of cable broadband — was “promising technology.”

“At the cable convention, we demonstrated 3Gbps” over Comcast’s existing cable infrastructure, said Roberts.

Smit

Comcast is easily the country’s largest cable operator, but many believe it is restrained from growing larger through mergers and acquisitions because of antitrust concerns. But thanks to a number of lawsuits initiated by Comcast, the company believes it can now grow as large as it likes.

Roberts admits the question of cable industry consolidation remains a gray area, particularly for Comcast. But he told investors he does not believe there are any remaining legal hurdles preventing Comcast from buying out other cable operators, despite earlier FCC rulemakings limiting the maximum size a cable company can grow through buyouts.

Comcast yesterday announced its last buyout — NBCUniversal — helped fuel a 29% increase in net income in the second quarter, thanks in part to strong results from film and television.

But many of Comcast’s largest gains came from its cable business.

Despite continued losses of video subscribers (159,000 in the second quarter), Comcast’s cable revenue increased 5.8% to $10.47 billion, and operating cash flow grew 5.7% to $4.3 billion. Comcast, which also owns several NBC broadcast affiliates, is playing for both sides of the retransmission consent wars. Its owned and operated television stations have demanded higher fees to be carried on cable systems, many owned by Comcast itself. The increased programming costs fuel subscriber rate increases, which also boost revenue.

Broadband is way up, although the company keeps losing video customers to cord-cutting.

Comcast’s broadband revenue has continued to grow dramatically. Customer additions for High Speed Internet access were up more than 20% in the quarter — the best second-quarter growth in five years — even as subscribers paid more for the service because of rate increases. Customer growth and price hikes delivered 8% growth in broadband revenue. In the last quarter alone, Comcast earned $2.6 billion from its broadband business.

Comcast is not spending a significant percentage of that revenue on enhanced broadband network upgrades. Instead, the company has increased investments to wire office parks and businesses to entice commercial customers, which account for a substantial amount of new customer growth. Comcast is also investing in research and development of new products and services, such as set-top boxes. The company also expects to pay 10% more in programming costs than it did a year earlier.

Year-to-date cable communications capital expenditures have increased 7.1% to $2.3 billion representing 11.3% of cable revenue. Comcast expects that for the full-year of 2013, cable capital expenditures will increase by about 10% over 2012.

Some other highlights from the quarter:

• In the last six months, Comcast completed broadband speed increases for 70 percent of its customers;
• High Speed Internet revenue was again the largest contributor to Comcast’s cable revenue growth;
• At the end of the quarter, 33% of Comcast’s residential high-speed customers take a higher speed tier above its primary service;
• Comcast has pushed Wi-Fi hard, installing more than four million wireless gateways and boosted Wi-Fi coverage to 250,000 hotspots through both cable partnerships and its home hotspot initiative;
• Comcast’s new X1 cloud-based set-top platform has been introduced to more than half of its national service area and will be available everywhere by the end of 2013. By the end of the year, Comcast also expects to push a firmware update to installed boxes to upgrade them to its new X2 platform;
• The average Comcast subscriber now pays the company $160 per month, up 7.4% from last year. Rate hikes, speed upgrades and growing programming packages account for the higher price;
• 77% of Comcast video customers took at least two products and among those, 42% took phone, broadband and television service.

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Bloomberg reports Comcast is still having trouble holding on to its video-only customers, but broadband customer growth continues to explode. Comcast also does well because it owns a number of cable networks and entertainment properties. Expect Comcast to continue evolving its products to bring them closer to the things people do online.  (3 minutes)

Within the hour viewers in New York, Los Angeles, and Dallas will know whether Time Warner Cable and CBS have managed to reach an agreement on retransmission consent, agree to further extend talks, or choose to pull the plug on CBS affiliates in the three cities, and a handful of independent stations with it.

Negotiations are said to be tense and down to the wire, with a weekend extension expiring at 5pm ET this afternoon. Time Warner Cable customers nationwide could experience the loss of Showtime if Time Warner Cable decides to drop the pay movie channel as a negotiating tactic.

CBS’ Les Moonves confirmed this afternoon the two sides remained at odds over the exact amount the cable operator will pay per viewer for CBS-owned local stations in the three cities. If an agreement is not reached, Time Warner Cable is likely to drop the channels this afternoon.

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Bloomberg News reports late this afternoon the two sides have still not reached an agreement and unless another extension is approved, CBS will be off the cable dial in New York, Dallas, and Los Angeles. (5 minutes)

The cable operator upped the stakes late Friday reportedly threatening that if CBS does get removed, it will give up its coveted channel positions on Time Warner Cable indefinitely. In New York, WCBS occupies channel 2. In Los Angeles, KCBS is also on channel 2 and its sister station KCAL is on channel 9. In Dallas, KTVT is on Time Warner Cable channel 11. Low channel numbers have significant financial value to programmers, because it makes finding channels easier. Jeff Zucker from CNN has already expressed an interest is taking over channel 2 for CNN.

The dispute comes at the same time Time Warner Cable is notifying customers of rate increases on broadband and cable modem rentals. CBS is expected to recommend Time Warner customers switch to a competitor or watch shows online, presumably over TWC’s broadband service.

In Wisconsin, another retransmission consent fight with Journal Broadcast Group caused the cable company to drop those stations from its lineup. Among the stations affected in Wisconsin:  WTMJ-TV (Channel 4) in Milwaukee and WGBA-TV in Green Bay, which carry Packer pre-season games, and WACY-TV in Appleton, which carries Spanish language pre-season broadcasts.

Ellis

State Senate president Mike Ellis (R-Neenah) wrote a letter to the cable company insisting that it give rebates to customers affected by the blackout.

“It is clear your customers are no longer receiving the service they are paying for,” Ellis wrote in a letter to the company last Friday.

But Time Warner Cable made it clear subscribers are not entitled to refunds when stations disappear from its lineup:

Stations “are sold as a package of channels. We change our programming packages from time to time, including by adding new networks to the lineup. It is not our practice to issue credits for individual networks that are offered in a package.”

In New York, City Council Speaker Christine Quinn has asked CBS and Time Warner Cable to keep the stations up and running on cable until the negotiations are resolved. If they don’t Quinn has threatened to hold an oversight hearing on the matter, although her power to affect the two companies is very limited.

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NY1 reports on New York City mayoral candidate Christine Quinn’s request that CBS and Time Warner keep WCBS on the cable dial until the dispute can be resolved.  (1 minute)

Several million Time Warner Cable and Bright House customers in New York, California, Texas and Florida will lose CBS programming this Wednesday at 5pm if the three companies do not iron out their differences in contract renewal negotiations.

CBS and Time Warner Cable have taken their fight public over retransmission consent talks that have left the two sides far apart. The cable operators say CBS has gotten greedy asking for as much as 600 percent more than what the cable companies paid under the old agreement that expired in June. CBS says the fact its stations have never been thrown off cable systems before is proof that their terms are reasonable.

Cable analysts say CBS’ old agreement cost the two cable operators between 75 cents and one dollar a month per subscriber. Most believe CBS is now asking for between $1-2 a month per subscriber to renew the agreement.

CBS wants to be paid at levels comparable to the most popular cable networks and believes the fact the network is now number one in the ratings delivers negotiating power. CBS has not made its aggressive position on carriage fees a secret. Executives have told investors it plans to quadruple cable and satellite fees over the next four years with a goal to raise an extra $1 billion. Wall Street analysts have recommended the stock to investors and its value has risen at least 65% in the past year.

But Time Warner Cable spokeswoman Maureen Huff believes CBS is asking for too much.

“Broadcasters have already hit customers with 84 broadcaster blackouts in the past 18 months,” Huff said in a statement. “Les Moonves, president and CEO of CBS, has always been outspoken about the programming fees he believes he deserves. He has said ‘the sky is the limit’ when talking about the price he thinks he deserves for his CBS stations, and he clearly means it. He doesn’t seem to care about our customers’ budgets or the going rates for CBS programming.”

But critics contend Time Warner Cable does not come to the table with clean hands on the issue of expensive carriage fees. Time Warner Cable seemed less concerned about the skyrocketing costs of cable programming when it set high asking prices for TWC-owned regional sports networks SportsNet and TWC Deportes.

CBS says it deserves at least as much as what Time Warner Cable pays Time Warner Entertainment’s TNT, which reportedly charges at least $1 a subscriber.

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CBS is now running this ad in New York City warning Time Warner Cable customers they are about to lose WCBS-TV, the local CBS affiliate.  (1 minute)

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Not so fast, says Time Warner Cable. CBS wants 600% more for WCBS, driving up the price customers pay for cable television. (1 minute)

If no agreement is reached, CBS expects customers will lose access to its network-0wned affiliates starting at 5pm Wednesday afternoon. Although most media reports are focused on the fact CBS stations in New York, Los Angeles, and Dallas are affected, not all are CBS affiliates. In fact, customers in a few other cities will also find their CBS-owned stations dropped:

• New York: WCBS (TWC)
• Los Angeles: KCBS, KCAL (TWC)
• Dallas-Ft. Worth: KTVT, KTXA (TWC)
• St. Petersburg-Tampa: WTOG (Bright House)
• Riverhead (Long Island): WLNY (TWC)

Some Bright House customers are also affected by dispute.

The Wall Street Journal reported that Time Warner Cable and Bright House would also drop Showtime from lineups across the country in a retaliatory move, but this was not confirmed by either cable company.

Station owners are seeking higher retransmission consent payments from cable and satellite operators to establish additional sources of revenue. Pay television customers ultimately foot the bill with higher priced cable television service. As prices rise, pay television operators increasingly worry customers will either defect to a competitor or cut the cable television cord for good. Some operators are adopting a tougher stance, willing to drop stations from the lineup.

Most station owners believe the larger number of stations they own or control, the less likely a cable operator will actually throw a station off the lineup. This month, Wisconsin-based Journal Broadcast Group is threatened with the loss of nearly half of its 15 television stations on Time Warner Cable systems in Wisconsin, Nebraska, and California:

• WTMJ Milwaukee
• KMTV Omaha
• WGBA Green Bay/Appleton, Wisc.
• WACY Green Bay/Appleton, Wisc.
• KMIR Palm Springs, Calif.
• KPSE Palm Springs, Calif.

Bigger is better

Some stations have been off the lineup since July 10 in some markets, with digital sub-channels first removed by Time Warner Cable in a warning shot in others.

Larger station owners like Sinclair Broadcast Group have felt less threatened. The more stations under negotiation, the more leverage station owners have in contract renewal talks.

Sinclair is further boosting its position in the local TV station business, spending almost $2 billion in the last 18 months buying 81 more television stations.

Sinclair owns and operates, programs or provides advertising sales services to 140 television stations in 72 markets nationwide. They are a force to be reckoned with. Despite angry words over the station owner’s asking price, both Dish Networks and DirecTV renewed their carriage agreements with Sinclair without disrupting viewing.

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The Wall Street Journal’s “Moneybeat” looks into the retransmission dispute between CBS and Time Warner Cable and what impact it may have on viewers. (5 minutes)

Back in the fall of 2010, British billionaire Alki David fired a salvo against major broadcast networks in the United States and United Kingdom with the introduction of FilmOn, an online cable system offering unlimited viewing of broadcast networks from both countries for around $10 a month. By early 2011, lawsuits from various networks forced the removal of the most-watched channels, and most of the incentive for subscribers to keep paying for the service.

But David has never given up on FilmOn, and borrowing a page from Aereo’s business plan, he has brought back most of the major American networks on his relaunched platform, dubbed AereoKiller.

The company claims it is now using individual over-the-air antennas to receive broadcast stations from the New York or Washington, D.C. area, selling 24/7 streaming access for $9.99 per month or $99 a year. DVR service is sold at prices ranging from $2.95 a month to $190 a year, depending on the number of hours recorded.

Among the stations included:

New York

• WCBS (CBS)
• WNBC (NBC)
• WNYW (FOX)
• WABC (ABC)
• Bounce TV (via WWOR subchannel)
• WPIX (CW)
• WNET (PBS)/WNET-Kids
• WNJU (Telemundo)

Washington, D.C.

• WRC (NBC)
• WTTG (FOX)
• WJLA (ABC)
• WUSA (CBS)

There seem to be no geographic restrictions to prevent out of area viewers from subscribing, and FilmOn offers viewing on the desktop, as well as through iOS and Android apps.

David

FilmOn may have avoided streaming west coast stations because a California court found in favor of broadcasters who sued to shut down the operation three years earlier. But it ultimately will not keep David’s upstart service out of the courts in the east.

Last week, three major television networks and Washington, D.C. station owner Allbritton Communications filed suit against FilmOn for streaming signals from the nation’s capital without permission.

Based on the track record of earlier ventures, customers may want to avoid subscribing at the annual package price. Historically, broadcasters have fought and won temporary restraining orders that block the streaming services until the case makes its way through legal proceedings. Aereo, which streams New York area television stations exclusively to New York City customers has proven the exception and continues to run, at least for now.

Broadcasters consider stopping “dime-sized” antenna farm streaming services like Aereo and AereoKiller a top priority, because networks and local stations earn lucrative retransmission consent rights fees from cable, satellite, and telco-TV providers used by at least 90 percent of the viewing audience. Should these alternative technologies be found legal and not in violation of copyright, pay television providers could potentially license and incorporate similar technology into their respective set-top boxes and avoid paying license fees to station and network owners.

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FilmOn’s introductory promotional video features some boastful claims from founder Alki David that are perhaps more wishful thinking than reality, but PlayOn has persisted despite broadcaster lawsuits by creating and distributing original live and recorded programming.  (8 minutes)