Time Warner Cable’s shares tumbled on news that the nation’s second largest cable operator is likely to report it is losing subscribers tired of high cable prices in a tough economy.  These challenges are fueling press speculation the company is exploring a “broad alliance” with Cox Cable to join forces in an effort to reduce programming costs.

Bloomberg reports growth has slowed across the board at Time Warner.  The cable company blamed the weak economy for most of its troubles, suggesting the lack of new housing developments and home purchasers is responsible for a lot of the negative growth.

“Overall, I would say that the subscriber environment is very, very weak,” Chief Financial Officer Rob Marcus told investors at a Bank of America Corp. conference in Newport Beach, California. “We’re being negatively affected by very high rates of unemployment, high vacancy rates, both at the rental and the owned home levels, and really anemic new home formation.”

Growth has slowed across all Time Warner Cable’s businesses and because of that the company may see a loss in total customers, or what it calls primary service units, Marcus said.

Last quarter, the U.S. pay-TV industry lost basic-cable subscribers for the first time ever, according to research firm SNL Kagan.

Despite subscriber losses, Marcus calmed Wall Street reminding them the company expects to meet expectations for 20 percent growth in adjusted operating income thanks to a series of revenue-enhancing rate increases underway this year and declining costs in some areas of the business.

Reuters reported this week that Time Warner Cable was in the early stages of a discussion about a potential system swap affecting southern California that could blossom into a “broad alliance” on programming negotiations and potentially even a Time Warner buyout of Cox’s cable systems nationwide.

The Cox systems rumored to be at issue serve Irvine and San Diego and smaller properties in Santa Barbara and Rancho Palos Verdes.  Light Reading speculated Time Warner Cable wants Cox’s Irvine system to increase the size of its footprint in Orange County and Cox would get Time Warner’s San Diego system.

Reuters speculated Time Warner Cable would also negotiate programming carriage contracts on behalf of Cox, just as they currently do with Bright House Networks.  A combination of all three systems could deliver programmers carriage commitments for more than 20 million subscribers across all three systems.  That is still a few million short of Comcast, but easily worth significant volume discounts on programming.

A few industry reports shared rumors Time Warner Cable would eventually buy out the Cox family, which privately owns Cox Cable, and combine those cable properties under the Time Warner Cable name.

But in today’s political climate, and concerns about market power and concentration, such a combination would likely face considerable scrutiny from regulators.

Cox has a Facebook page devoted to asking customers what they think would be fair in wireless products and pricing.

The cable industry’s definition of “fair” doesn’t always seem to connect with average consumers, who too often discover what sounds like a good deal to the local cable company isn’t a good deal for them.  Despite the skepticism, Cox Communications thinks it has a deal for you… an “unbelievably fair deal” for consumers looking for wireless service.

Cox already has a website up and running, unbelievablyfair.com where Cox Cable customers can register with their e-mail address and get updates on service availability.  They also get a free OnDemand movie coupon.

If you’re wondering what Cox is up to, here’s the scoop.

Back in 2006, Cox and several other cable companies bid for and won several frequency blocks suitable to support wireless services.  Those frequencies, along with a partnership with Sprint Nextel, are expected to serve Cox’s entry into the wireless business.  Initially launching in Hampton Roads, Virginia, Omaha, Nebraska, and Orange County, California, Cox will use Sprint’s CDMA 3G network to support its wireless service at the outset.

The company hasn’t revealed exactly how “unbelievably fair” their pricing actually is, but based on the company’s advertising campaign, it’s a safe bet it will be free from the tricks, traps, and gotchas bigger players in the market stick to their customers.  Minute plans would likely provide “rollover” of unused minutes, if not kicking the minutes bucket right out of the equation with flat rate service.  Hidden extra fees and surcharges are also unlikely to be a part of Cox Wireless’ service plans.  That could ultimately mean a plan priced competitively with Boost Mobile or Tracfone Wireless’ Straight Talk.

Cox will eventually enhance Cox Wireless and provide it in other Cox Cable service areas, as well as building out its own wireless network.

“Our research found that value and transparency are very important to consumers when choosing a wireless service plan, but they are not finding these qualities in the wireless plans offered today,” said Stephen Bye, vice president of wireless. “Total loss of unused minutes as well as unforeseen overage charges on bills are just two examples of what our customers have told us is just unfair.”

Customers have been following Cox’s invitation to join in a discussion about wireless pricing fairness on the company’s Facebook page (click the logo above to access).  From a quick review of comments, customers want lower pricing, more bundled discounts, a better handset selection, better speed, and our personal favorite – no Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps and limits on their data network.

Cox is rolling out a major marketing campaign to promote Cox Wireless, including advertising and discussions on company-produced programs airing on Cox Cable systems in the communities where service will arrive this spring.

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Cox Wireless Advertising Campaign.flv[/flv]

Cox Wireless’ marketing campaign includes three ad spots and a website intro. (2 minutes)

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Cox Connections 1-2010.flv[/flv]

Cox Cable in Hampton Roads, Virginia briefly mentions Cox Wireless in ‘Cox Connections,’ a company-produced program airing on Cox Cable.  (6 minutes)

A creative attempt by two Floridians to keep local Fox affiliates from being dropped on Bright House Networks by asking a judge for a temporary restraining order failed late Wednesday when the judge effectively tossed the case on jurisdictional grounds.

Circuit Judge Maura Smith in Orlando initially said she was referring the matter to federal court to determine which court had jurisdiction to issue a temporary restraining order.

“I wish I could make everybody happy,” said the Orange County Circuit Judge.

Orlando attorney John Morgan requested the court order Fox to keep WOFL-TV, Orlando’s Fox affiliate, on the Bright House Networks cable lineup, at least until after the Sugar Bowl.  Morgan filed the case on behalf of two local sports fans Thomas Moore, a fellow attorney and Richard Anderson, the city manager for Apopka, outside of Orlando.

Fox’s own counsel requested Smith send the case to federal court instead, and she agreed.  Later Wednesday, U.S. District Court Judge Gregory Presnell sent the case back to circuit court, where it was effectively tossed out.

The legal arguments were hardly a Perry Mason moment.  Morgan argued football fans would be harmed if the game wasn’t televised on Bright House Networks.  Fox’s attorney argued they could watch with an antenna or drive to a local bar or restaurant televising the game.  That brought a response from Morgan questioning where exactly someone would purchase rabbit ears, and that driving to a local establishment to watch the games could be risky because of increased drunk driving on New Year’s Day.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WESH Orlando Judge Denies Motion In Bright House Fox Dispute 12-31-09.flv[/flv]

WESH-TV in Orlando reports the judge tossed the case because it would have required her to rule over a private business matter.  (2 minutes)

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WOFL Orlando Lawsuits Against Bright House and Fox 12-30-09.flv[/flv]

WOFL-TV in Orlando interviews the plaintiffs outside of court today about their case and goes over the dispute one more time with central Florida viewers. (5 minutes)

The Hudson Valley region of New York State

Liberty, New York

The Hudson Valley of New York, home to a mix of several cities and rural communities between northern New York City and Albany will see Road Runner speed upgrades from DOCSIS 3 early next spring.

Time Warner Cable continues to expand DOCSIS 3-capable broadband service in areas where Verizon is aggressively moving forward with FiOS fiber to the home broadband service.  The company previously announced service upgrades have become available in certain areas of New York City, with an aggressive deployment schedule to expand service to upstate communities of Syracuse, Buffalo, and Albany in the coming months.

The expansion into the Hudson Valley brings expanded speeds into comparatively rural communities between metropolitan New York and the state capital, Albany.

The company expects service, with speeds up to 50Mbps, to begin on March 30, 2010 in these areas:

• Walden – Orange County (population 6, 164)
• Wurtsboro – Sullivan County (population 1,234)
• Rhinebeck – Dutchess County (population 3,077)
• Saugerties – Ulster County (population 19,868)
• Poughkeepsie – Dutchess County (population 29,871)
• Port Ewen – Ulster County (population 3,650)
• Kingston – Ulster County (population 23,456)
• Liberty – Sullivan County (population 9,632)
• Monticello – Sullivan County (population 6,512)

Rochester, with a population of 219,773 is not on the upgrade list.

A new online tool on the New York City Time Warner Cable website allows customers to enter their zip codes and determine when the new speeds will be available in their areas.  In the boroughs of Queens and Brooklyn, more details have emerged:

Borough of Queens

Maspeth, Middle Village, Ridgewood (Available October 30)
Elmhurst, Corona, East Corona, Jackson Heights, Long Island City, Sunnyside, Woodside (Available November 15)

Borough of Brooklyn

Greenpoint, Brownsville, Williamsburg, Bushwick, Brooklyn Heights, Red Hook, Clinton Hill (Available November 15)