Comcast Corporation has completed its offer for NBC-Universal and they accepted in an early morning press conference unveiling a deal that had been privately rumored for months.  Comcast will assume 51% control of NBC-Universal, with NBC-owner GE controlling the remaining 49% stake.

The combined entity, to be known as Comcast Entertainment Group, will bring Comcast-owned media into the home of every American, even those not served by Comcast Cable.

Although company officials said little would change immediately, Comcast has not ruled out dropping the legacy ‘NBC’ brand down the road.  Broadcasting & Cable noted the company may be hinting at its intentions through its domain name registrations.  The trade publication reported Comcast’s registrar locked ComcastNBCU.com and NBCUComcast.com in mid-October, but returned and registered ComcastEntertainment.com ten days later.

Brian Roberts, CEO of Comcast Corporation, joked that NBC’s fourth place position among the major American broadcast networks might “get in the way” of recognizing NBC-Universal’s cable networks, which he characterized as “fantastic.”  Perhaps a change of NBC, which stands for the National Broadcasting Company, to Comcast Entertainment Network might change that perception?

Changes like that, and the implication of renaming a major American network after what most Americans recognize as a cable company has brought significant unease among some examining the scope of the transaction.

Comcast CEO Brian Roberts

Comcast Entertainment Group will control a major American broadcast network, Telemundo – a major American Spanish-language broadcast network, Comcast Cable, the nation’s largest cable system operator, several cable networks, 27 GE-owned television stations in major American cities, a large number of regional sports networks, and more.  It also manages broadband service for nearly 16 million Comcast customers.

Stifel Nicolaus telcom analysts Rebecca Arbogast and David Kaut warned potential investors this deal has a lengthy and difficult regulatory review waiting for it in Washington, DC: “We would expect scrutiny of the transaction’s impact on program access, program carriage and retransmission consent, as well as local TV advertising, broadcast-network affiliate arrangements, program bundling, broadband/Internet video and network neutrality and possibly other issues, including cable pricing…broadband service, labor concerns, spectrum and privacy.”

The dealmakers recognized the challenges and started throwing voluntary concessions to concerned groups.  Unimpressed Comcast shareholders got a bone thrown their way — a surprise 40% increase in their dividend, in hopes that will quiet shareholder unease.

Comcast also sent letters to regulatory officials promising NBC will remain a free, over the air broadcast network and not be converted into a cable-only channel.

The cable operator will also add additional independently-owned cable networks to its lineup to quiet concerns it might favor its own cable networks.  Of course, whether customers want to watch and pay for those channels is another matter.

Finally, Spanish language services from Telemundo and other channels will receive enhanced free on-demand cable viewing options in cities where Telemundo is seen over-the-air.

For broadband users, the deal means Comcast gets a seat at the table of online video provider Hulu.  NBC-Universal was a major proponent of the online video service which gives broadband users free access to broadcast and cable programming.

That deeply concerns Andrew Schwartzman, president and CEO of Media Access Project.  He’s concerned about the enormous market power Comcast Entertainment will have.

“I am especially concerned about the effects the merger would have on evolving technologies for delivering video over the Internet….I also expect a great deal of opposition from the private sector, since the merger has anti-competitive implications for local TV stations, independent cable programmers, advertisers, internet video entrepreneurs and many other businesses,” he told The Hill.  Both Media Access Project and Free Press have called on regulators to reject the deal.

“The American public doesn’t want a media behemoth controlling the programming they watch and how they can access it,” said Josh Silver , executive director of Free Press. “If Washington allows this deal to go through, Comcast will have unprecedented control of marquee content and three major distribution platforms: Internet, broadcast and cable. We’ve never seen this kind of consolidated control.”

[flv width=”596″ height=”356″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/NBC Today Show Announces Comcast Deal 12-03-09.flv[/flv]

This morning’s Today show on NBC briefly reviewed the deal and what it means for consumers (1 minute)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Parsing the Comcast NBC Deal Craig Moffett 12-03-09.flv[/flv]

Sanford Bernstein’s Craig Moffett talks with CNBC about why many telecom sector analysts are underwhelmed by the Comcast-NBC deal (3 minutes)

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GE CEO Jeffrey Immelt and Comcast CEO Craig Roberts join CNBC’s David Faber for an in-depth discussion about the transaction and the changing media business. (28 minutes)

Learn more about NBC’s broadcast operations impacted by this deal below.

… Continue Reading

America's Broadband Emergency Plan Allows Up to Three Cat-Chasing-Laser-Pointer videos per day

The mainstream media loves a scare story.  Suggestions that a national H1N1 pandemic could bring the Internet as we know it to its knees is a surefire way to get plenty of attention.

The Chicago Tribune, among others, reports that a nationwide outbreak of virus forcing 40% of American workers to remain housebound could result in too many people sitting at home watching Hulu, bringing the entire Internet to a screeching halt.

The answer? Shut down video streaming sites and throttle users during national emergencies.

Of course, even more interesting is what never turns up in these kinds of stories — the news behind the sensationalist headlines.

The report on which this story is based comes courtesy of the General Accounting Office.  The GAO doesn’t simply issue reports willy-nilly.  A member or members of Congress specifically request the government office to research and report back on the issues that concern them.  In this instance, the report comes at the request of:

• Rep. Henry Waxman
• Rep. John D. Dingell
• Rep. Joe Barton
• Rep. Barney Frank
• Rep. Bennie G. Thompson
• Rep. Rick Boucher
• Rep. Cliff Stearns
• Rep. Edward J. Markey

The congressmen weren’t worrying exclusively about your broadband interests.  The GAO notes the study came from concern that such a pandemic could impact the financial services sector (the people that brought you the near-Depression of 2008-09).  The Wall Street crowd could be left without broadband while recovering from flu, and that simply wouldn’t do.

“Concerns exist that a more severe pandemic outbreak than 2009’s could cause large numbers of people staying home to increase their Internet use and overwhelm Internet providers’ network capacities. Such network congestion could prevent staff from broker-dealers and other securities market participants from teleworking during a pandemic. The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is responsible for ensuring that critical telecommunications infrastructure is protected. GAO was asked to examine a pandemic’s impact on Internet congestion and what actions can be and are being taken to address it, the adequacy of securities market organizations’ pandemic plans, and the Securities and Exchange Commission’s (SEC) oversight of these efforts,” the report states.

Putting aside my personal desire that a little less broadband for deal-making, bailout-demanding “kings of the world” might not be a bad idea, the GAO’s report concludes what we already know — the business model of residential broadband is based on sharing connections and when too many people stay home and use them, it’s slow and doesn’t work well.

Providers do not build networks to handle 100 percent of the total traffic that could be generated because users are neither active on the network all at the same time, nor are they sending maximum traffic at all times. Instead, providers use statistical models based upon past users’ patterns and projected growth to estimate the likely peak load of traffic that could occur and then design and build networks based on the results of the statistical model to accommodate at least this level. According to one provider, this engineering method serves to optimize available capacity for all users. For example, under a cable architecture, 200 to 500 individual cable modems may be connected to a provider’s CMTS, depending on average usage in an area. Although each of these individual modems may be capable of receiving up to 7 or 8 megabits per second (Mbps) of incoming information, the CMTS can transmit a maximum of only about 38 Mbps. Providers’ staff told us that building the residential parts of networks to be capable of handling 100 percent of the traffic that all users could potentially generate would be prohibitively expensive.

In other words, guess your customer demand correctly and 200-500 homes can all share one 38Mbps connection.  Guess incorrectly, or put off expanding that network to meet the anticipated demands because your company wants to collect “cost savings” from reduced investment, and everyone’s connection slows down, especially at peak times.

One way to dramatically boost capacity for cable operators is to bond multiple channels of broadband service together, using the latest DOCSIS 3 standard.  It provides cable operators with increased flexibility to meet growing demands on their network without spending top dollar on wholesale infrastructure upgrades.  Many operators are already reaping the rewards this upgrade provides, by charging customers higher prices for higher speed service.  But it also makes network management easier without inconveniencing existing customers with slowdowns during peak usage.

The GAO didn’t need 77 pages to produce a report that concludes broadband usage skyrockets when people are at home.  Just watching holiday shopping traffic online spike during deal days like “Cyber Monday,” after Thanksgiving would illustrate that.  Should 40 percent of Americans stay home from work, instead of browsing the Internet from their work machines, they’ll be doing it from home.  That moves the bottleneck from commercial broadband accounts to residential broadband networks.

The GAO says such congestion could create all sorts of problems for the financial services sector, slowing down their broadband access.

Providers’ options for addressing expected pandemic-related Internet congestion include providing extra capacity, using network management controls, installing direct lines to organizations, temporarily reducing the maximum transmission rate, and shutting down some Internet sites. Each of these methods is limited either by technical difficulties or questions of authority. In the normal course of business, providers attempt to address congestion in particular neighborhoods by building out additional infrastructure—for example, by adding new or expanding lines and cables. Internet provider staff told us that providers determine how much to invest in expanding network infrastructure based on business expectations. If they determine that a demand for increased capacity exists that can profitably be met, they may choose to invest to increase network capacity in large increments using a variety of methods such as replacing old equipment and increasing the number of devices serving particular neighborhoods. Providers will not attempt to increase network capacity to meet the increased demand resulting from a pandemic, as no one knows when a pandemic outbreak is likely to occur or which neighborhoods would experience congestion. Staff at Internet providers whom we interviewed said they monitor capacity usage constantly and try to run their networks between 40 and 80 percent capacity at peak hours. They added that in the normal course of business, their companies begin the process to expand capacity when a certain utilization threshold is reached, generally 70 to 80 percent of full capacity over a sustained period of time at peak hours.

However, during a pandemic, providers are not likely to be able to address congestion by physically expanding capacity in residential neighborhoods for several reasons. First, building out infrastructure can be very costly and takes time to complete. For example, one provider we spoke with said that it had spent billions of dollars building out infrastructure across the nation over time, and adding capacity to large areas quickly is likely not possible. Second, another provider told us that increasing network capacity requires the physical presence of technicians and advance planning, including preordering the necessary equipment from suppliers or manufacturers. The process can take anywhere from 6 to 8 weeks from the time the order is placed to actual installation. According to this provider, a major constraint to increasing capacity is the number of technicians the firm has available to install the equipment. In addition to the cost and time associated with expanding capacity, during a pandemic outbreak providers may also experience high absenteeism due to staff illnesses, and thus might not have enough staff to upgrade network capacities. Providers said they would, out of necessity, refrain from provisioning new residential services if their staff were reduced significantly during a pandemic. Instead, they would focus on ensuring services for the federal government priority communication programs and performing network management techniques to re-route traffic around congested areas in regional networks or the national backbone. However, these activities would likely not relieve congestion in the residential Internet access networks.

It’s clear some broadband providers are not willing to change their business models to redefine congestion from measurements taken during peak usage when speeds slow, to those that anticipate and tolerate traffic spikes.  That means making due with what broadband providers are delivering today and developing technical and legal means to ration, traffic shape, or simply cut access to high bandwidth traffic during ‘appropriate emergencies.’  Right on cue, the high bandwidth barrage of self-serving provider talking points are on display in the report:

Providers identified one technically feasible alternative that has the potential to reduce Internet congestion during a pandemic, but raised concerns that it could violate customer service agreements and thus would require a directive from the government to implement. Although providers cannot identify users at the computer level to manage traffic from that point, two providers stated that if the residential Internet access network in a particular neighborhood was experiencing congestion, a provider could attempt to reduce congestion by reducing the amount of traffic that each user could send to and receive from his or her network. Such a reduction would require adjusting the configuration file within each customer’s modem to temporarily reduce the maximum transmission speed that that modem was capable of performing—for example, by reducing its incoming capability from 7 Mbps to 1 Mbps. However, according to providers we spoke with, such reductions could violate the agreed-upon levels of services for which customers have paid. Therefore, under current agreements, two providers indicated they would need a directive from the government to take such actions.

Shutting down specific Internet sites would also reduce congestion, although many we spoke with expressed concerns about the feasibility of such an approach. Overall Internet congestion could be reduced if Web sites that accounted for significant amounts of traffic—such as those with video streaming—were shut down during a pandemic. According to one recently issued study, the number of adults who watch videos on video-sharing sites has nearly doubled since 2006, far outpacing the growth of many other Internet activities. However, most providers’ staff told us that blocking users from accessing such sites, while technically possible, would be very difficult and, in their view, would not address the congestion problem and would require a directive from the government.

Enjoy up to one Hogan's Heroes episode per day during the H1N1 flu pandemic

You have to love some of the players in the broadband industry who trot out their most-favored “network management” talking points to handle a national emergency.  It’s interesting to note providers told the GAO they were concerned with violating customer agreements regarding speed guarantees, when most providers never guarantee residential service speeds.  Their first solution is the Net Neutrality-busting traffic throttle, to slow everyone down to ration the “good enough for you” network in your neighborhood.  Shutting down too-popular, high bandwidth websites like Hulu (no worries – you can watch your favorite shows on our cable TV package) is apparently someone’s good idea, but considering providers admit it wouldn’t actually solve the congestion problem, one’s imagination can ponder what other problems such a shutdown might solve.

One provider indicated that such blocking would be difficult because determining which sites should be blocked would be a very subjective process. Additionally, this provider noted that technologically savvy site operators could change their Internet protocol addresses, allowing users to access the site regardless. Another provider told us that some of these large bandwidth sites stream critical news information. Furthermore, some state, local, and federal government offices and agencies, including DHS, currently use or have plans to increase their use of social media Web sites and to use video streaming as a means to communicate with the public. Shutting down such sites without affecting pertinent information would be a challenge for providers and could create more Internet congestion as users would repeatedly try to access these sites. According to one provider, two added complications are the potential liability resulting from lawsuits filed by businesses that lose revenue when their sites are shutdown or restricted and potential claims of anticompetitive practices, denial of free speech, or both. Some providers said that the operators of specific Internet sites could shut down their respective sites with less disruption and more effectively than Internet providers, and suggested that a better course of action would be for the government to work directly with the site operators.

A very subjective process indeed, but one many providers have sought to keep within their “network management” control as they battle Net Neutrality.  One would think “potential claims of anti-competitive practices” would represent an understatement, particularly if cable industry-operated TV Everywhere theoretically kept right on running even while Hulu could not.  As long time net users already know, outright censorship or content blockades almost always meet resistance from enterprising net users who make it their personal mission to get around such limits.

Expanding broadband networks to provide a better safety cushion during periods of peak usage is looking better and better.

Providers could help reduce the potential for a pandemic to cause Internet congestion by ongoing expansions of their networks’ capacities. Some providers are upgrading their networks by moving to higher capacity modems or fiber-to-the-home systems. For example, some cable providers are introducing a network specification that will increase the download capacity of residential networks from the 38 Mbps to about 152 to 155 Mbps. In addition to cable network upgrades, at least one telecommunications provider is offering fiber-to-the home, which is a broadband service operating over a fiber-optic communications network. Specifically, fiber-to-the-home Internet service is designed to provide Internet access with connection speeds ranging from 10 Mbps to 50 Mbps.

Hello.

Sounds like a plan to me, and not just for the benefit of the Wall Street crowd sick at home with the flu.  Such network upgrades can be economical and profitable when leveraged to upsell the broadband enthusiast to higher speed service tiers.  During periods of peak usage, such networks will withstand considerably more demand and provide a better answer to that nagging congestion problem.

The alternative is Comcast or Time Warner Cable, in association with the Department of Homeland Security, having to appear on Wolf Blitzer’s Situation Room telling Americans they have a broadband rationing plan that will give you six options of usage per day.  Choose any one:

• Up to three videos of cats chasing laser pointers on YouTube
• One episode of Hogan’s Heroes
• Up to six videos of your friends playing Guitar Hero on Dailymotion
• Unlimited access to Drugstore.com to browse remedies
• Five MySpace videos of your favorite bands
• Up to 500 “tweets” boring your followers with every possible detail of your stuck-at-home-sick routine

The Great Wall of Pay

Newspaper, broadcasting, and cable magnates have had enough of online web visitors accessing all of their content for free.  Free is naughty.  Free must be stopped.  Free threatens to devalue everything.

For the last few years, content producers have been looking for ways to recoup investments in online publishing.  Newspapers publish articles online and fear that causes people to stop paying for the printed edition.  Studios and networks make their shows available on Hulu, and people find on-demand viewing more convenient than watching ad-packed live television.  Cable magnates worry about people dropping cable subscriptions and watching all of their video online.

Broadcasting & Cable generated a firestorm late last week when it quoted one of Hulu’s partners — News Corporation’s Deputy Chairman Chase Carey telling the B&C OnScreen Summit “it’s time to start getting paid for broadcast content online.”

“I think a free model is a very difficult way to capture the value of our content. I think what we need to do is deliver that content to consumers in a way where they will appreciate the value,” Carey said. “Hulu concurs with that, it needs to evolve to have a meaningful subscription model as part of its business.”

CNN picked up the story in one of their news blogs, and promptly generated more than 700 responses, most hostile to paying for anything on Hulu, and that included the blog’s author:

“I certainly won’t be pulling out my credit card if the service puts up a subscription pay wall. And I doubt many other customers will be happy to start paying money for a service they previously received for free.”

Most comments indicated they’ll go back watching online TV shows and movies the old fashion way – downloading them from peer to peer torrent networks or newsgroups.

“The Internet abhors a content vacuum, especially one created artificially by a subscription wall,” Stop the Cap! reader Jake writes.  “Just like what happened with digital rights management schemes and viewing rights blockades, enterprising net users will always find a way around them and distribute the content a few don’t want us to have.”

The quest for control is increasingly becoming more contentious among super-sized corporate entities that create and distribute content.  Comcast seeks ownership of NBC-Universal, a content creator and partner in Hulu, which currently gives away content for free Comcast charges customers to watch.  A newly constructed Great Wall of Pay could help stop these business model challenges.

When online content was successfully monetized by advertising, few cared about handing it out for free.  In fact, providers like AOL abandoned many of its ‘subscriber-only’ walls to “go free” and attract a larger audience, and corresponding increased ad revenue.  In a post-bailout recession era, ad dollars have become scarce and no longer pay all of the bills Hulu’s owners want paid.  Advertising industry consultants say Hulu cannot simply increase the number of advertisements to make up the difference.  Even though Hulu users confront far less advertising than traditional broadcast television, research has shown online TV watchers resent a lot of the advertising they see now.  Many Hulu viewers actively develop a form of ad blindness based, in part, on the resentment those ads bring to the experience.  Hulu occasionally offers viewers one extended ad at the start of a show, instead of having them seeded throughout the program.  Many take Hulu up on the offer and use that 90 seconds to grab a snack.

Interestingly, the shorter a web ad, the more viewers retain information contained within it.  Some web ads run only 10 seconds, and are sold to clients with this in mind, and at a budget price to boot.

For web-ad haters, the worst of all worlds would be a Hulu that retains its limited commercial interruptions -and- charges a subscription fee.  For many, that would be the equivalent of “basic cable on the web.”  Many will drop Hulu “like a rock” should this happen.

A day after the hue and cry was raised by the Broadcasting & Cable article, skeptics said it was unlikely Hulu would entirely abandon free programming.  It may provide a premium pay service offering extra episodes, or perhaps remove commercials entirely for premium customers, a proposition at least some were willing to entertain, depending on the price.

“I would consider paying a very small (less than $3.00) monthly fee to watch Hulu if, and only if, they removed the commercials. Otherwise there are other alternatives,” one commenter wrote on CNN’s blog.

Newspapers are also feeling the bite, even more than online video sites.  The printed “dead tree format” of the daily paper has become anathema to the under-30 crowd, despite valiant efforts by some publishers to appeal to younger audiences with feature stories and even free weeklies that mix light news with entertainment features.  The only answer has been to take the paper online.  For years, concepts like online subscriptions, micropayments (paying a few cents per story), free access only for print subscribers, and charging per story for access to week-old and beyond news archives have been considered, tried, abandoned or ignored when web visitors flee or simply skip the pay content.  The daily local newspaper is not what it used to be, and when the “pay here” box pops up, many web visitors simply take their news reading business elsewhere, thanks to the near-universal access to wire service reports and competing media covering stories of interest for free.

Newsday, the Long Island newspaper owned by Cablevision, abandoned its “freeloading” audience yesterday with a new Great Wall of Pay charging a steep $5 a week for those who do not subscribe to either the newspaper or have a broadband account with Cablevision.

The newspaper’s Wednesday edition teased non-subscribers with stories that suddenly drifted off into ellipsis… with an invitation to open your wallet to read more.

Sports media blogger Neil Best, who writes for Newsday, seemed resigned to the fact he was losing a lot of his audience in his farewell-to-free column published Tuesday:

The inevitable decline in my national visibility (and page views) mostly is an ego thing. More to the point, Long Island advertisers understandably have little interest in readers in Dubuque.

For those readers who won’t be coming along for the ride – especially those outside Cablevision territory who in many ways are innocent bystanders in all this – thank you for your readership, input and support.

You will be missed.

Best realistically assessed the number of web visitors he’d see post-Wall, particularly from outside of the immediate area.  Best and his readership seemed to collectively sense this project was destined to fail, another bad experiment from aloof and out of touch management to the realities of the web world.  One commenter lamented the real victim would probably be Best himself:

What’s most frustrating of all, though, is that everyone knows this venture will fail. It’s never succeeded before and there’s truly no reason it will now. Pay for blogs? Are you kidding me? Even the pay-for-columns model is a one-in-a-million risk. But blogs? We all know this is not just you and I missing Neil, it’s Newsday destroying a commodity that could have helped it promote its other products. So Newsday loses– this has no chance– none– to succeed. And Neil loses –immediately– the majority of his followers. He will suffer the most immediate and quantifiable of harms. His readers, his fans, the people who support him and have helped him grow. Now his bosses shut us out and help him dwindle. And we lose. We lose our beloved journalists– we lose their thoughts and every day muses– things that dont even belong in a newspaper.

The use of the word “commodity” would no doubt cause much consternation among Newsday’s management and Wall Street types.  It is the “commoditization” of the news business, with endless debt-laden mergers and acquisitions and the cost-cutting that followed, that trained readers to realize that with the decrease in unique, local content in many newspapers, and their increasing reliance on partnerships with broadcast news operations, wire services, and syndicated feature content, why pay when you can get nearly the same (if not the same) content for free on the next website in the Google results list?

The big believers in the Great Wall of Pay fear what happened to newspapers could happen to their cable, broadcasting, or video rental operations.  The commoditization “crisis” is largely self-made: cable and phone companies with their “dumb pipes,” the cost-cutting local broadcaster that dispensed with nightly news, or the alienating video rental chain store made obsolete by Netflix or the Redbox ‘Tardis’ positioned in the entrance to your local supermarket.  When companies extract maximum revenue through minimal devotion to quality, uniqueness, and integrity, and either overcharge or irritate customers, why be surprised when consumers rebel when being asked to pay or pay more?

One of the rare success stories in pay content has come from Consumer Reports, which charges an annual fee for access to its online reviews.  Consumers notice the dramatic difference between a publication that accepts no advertising and keeps its integrity because of it, and other news sites contemplating pay schemes that are so cluttered with online advertising, autoplaying loud video ads, pop-ups and unders, they can barely find the content they are now being asked to pay for.

Consumers can and will pay for quality content, but many will not be forced into doing so with a corporate blockade on content from “walled gardens” and other “pay me to watch this, right after this ad” schemes.  Online, there is more than one way around the Great Wall of Pay.

Is the Comcast-NBC deal the result of media moguls playing with cable monopoly money?

A few weeks after word broke that Comcast was sniffing around NBC-Universal some on Wall Street are wondering whether a deal is more trouble than its worth.  The deal, valued at $27 billion dollars, would wed the nation’s largest cable operator with NBC-Universal, which owns a broadcast network, a Hollywood studio, and several cable networks.

Bernstein Research, which has favored cable stocks for years, has been the source of considerable unease about the deal.

“Media moguls see it almost as a birthright to buy and sell assets, but most of it clearly has not worked out,” said Craig Moffett, who covers the cable industry for Bernstein. “The value of the deal is the conceptual value of vertical integration, and most of it is against the law as a regulatory matter.”

Moffett’s comment was part of a piece in The New York Times raising questions about whether a Comcast-NBC deal would create more problems than it would solve.

David Carr, writing for the Times, suggests the heady days of media moguls building celebrated giant corporate empires might be behind us, particularly in telecommunications.  Carr, among others, raised memories of the AOL-Time Warner deal, when an upstart pre-dot.com-crash online service  managed to build enough value to buy a content mega-company like Time Warner for $164 billion dollars in 2000.  Just nine years later, AOL has become a forgotten relic, a shadow of its former glory.  Even if the idea of wedding AOL’s online network with Time Warner’s content sounded like a good idea at the time, in the end it just didn’t work out, and Time Warner CEO Jeff Bewkes is devoting plenty of attention spinning AOL away, right down to peeling the letters “AOL” off the front of the building.

Deal proponents suggest Comcast’s cable systems combined with NBC-Universal’s content would give Comcast diversity in its business model, which relies almost entirely on its cable systems.  Opponents say it will preoccupy Comcast with trying to integrate its focused cable-oriented business with a Hollywood studio and a legacy television network and the distractions that come with both.  The deal also comes with a 30% stake in Hulu, which is good and bad according to Carr.  It’s good because it gives the cable operator some control over a video distribution channel that could directly challenge its cable interests.  It’s bad for precisely the same reason, practically begging for regulatory hurdles from a more sensitive-to-antitrust Obama Administration.

Carr suggests if Comcast is in the acquiring mood, it might want to keep its focus on the remarkably stable cable industry in a downturned economy.  One such company, Time Warner Cable, the nation’s second largest cable operator, is a candidate according to Carr, and like Comcast is almost entirely focused on the cable television business.

Of course, such a deal would also certainly attract regulatory attention because of its size and scope.

Phillip Dampier

The Wall Street Journal today published an article reviewing the landscape of flat rate broadband service and how some Internet providers want to change it.

The article quotes me on the issue of Internet Overcharging becoming a political football in the Net Neutrality debate.

“This could come down to carriers saying, ‘If you don’t allow us to manage our networks the way we see fit, then we will just have to cap everything,’ ” says Phillip Dampier, a consumer advocate focusing on technology issues in Rochester, N.Y. “They’ll make it an either/or thing: give them more control over their network or expect metered broadband.”

Mr. Dampier was among those who forced Time Warner Cable to shelve a metered Internet pilot program in several cities last year. The company, which had argued the plan would be a fairer way to charge for access, acknowledged it was a “debacle.” It won’t say if it plans to revive the trials.

Unfortunately, the article never bothers to mention Stop the Cap!, the website dedicated to fighting these overcharging schemes.

AT&T weighs in on their experiment to overcharge consumers in Beaumont, Texas and Reno, Nevada, and analysts think Net Neutrality arguments may give providers an excuse to expand those experiments, launch price increases and blame it on Net Neutrality policies:

“Some type of usage-based model, for those customers who have abnormally high usage patterns, seems inevitable,” an AT&T spokesman says. AT&T declined to provide more details on its trials.

“Unquestionably, the carriers erred in their initial selling of broadband with a flat rate,” says Elroy Jopling, research director of Gartner Inc. “They assumed no one would use it as much as they do now, but then along came high-definition movies. They’re now trying to get around that mistake.”

Network neutrality deals primarily with ensuring that Internet providers don’t favor any online traffic over any other. Still, Mr. Jopling and other analysts argue, the net neutrality debate might provide the carriers with an opening to argue for changing that pricing.

“With network neutrality enforced, the only other option for carriers is to charge by the byte or to raise the flat-rate pricing,” says Johna Till Johnson, president of Nemertes Research. “Right now they’re just deciding which one to do. Just be prepared to pay more.”

It's "Rep. Eric Massa," Not 'Joe Messa'

The article has several flaws.

• It mis-identifies Rep. Eric Massa (D-New York) as “Rep. Joe Messa.”  Rep. Massa introduced legislation to ban Internet Overcharging when companies cannot produce actual evidence to justify it, particularly in the limited competitive marketplace for broadband in the United States.
• The article fails to mention the usage limits proposed by smaller broadband providers, including Frontier’s infamous 5GB usage definition in their Acceptable Use Policy.  This is a very important fact to consider when the article quotes Professor Andrew Odlyzko, an independent authority on broadband usage, as stating the average broadband consumer uses triple that amount (15 gigabytes per month).
• The quotation about the number of e-mails or web page views available under plan allowances that routinely appear in such articles ignores the increasing use of higher bandwidth applications like online video.  Telling a consumer they can send 75 million e-mails is irrelevant information because no consumer would ever need to worry about usage limits if they only used their account for web page browsing and e-mail usage.  They very much do have to be concerned if they use their service to watch online video from Hulu or Netflix, or use one of the online backup services.
• The article makes no mention of publicly available financial reports from broadband providers like Time Warner Cable that prove that at the same time their profits on broadband service are increasing, the company’s costs to provide the service continue to decline, along with the dollar amounts they spend to maintain and expand that network to meet demand.  Providing readers with insight into the true financial picture of a broadband provider, instead of simply quoting the public relations line of the day would seem particularly appropriate for The Wall Street Journal.
• The article doesn’t make mention that the same providers arguing increased Internet traffic is creating a problem for them are also working to launch an online video distribution platform that will rival Hulu in size and scope.  TV Everywhere will consume an enormous amount of the broadband network they claim can’t handle today’s traffic without Internet Overcharging schemes being thrown on customers.  Of course, such usage limits are very convenient for companies like Comcast, Time Warner Cable and AT&T, which are now in the business of selling pay television programming to consumers.  Should a consumer choose to watch all of their television online instead of paying for a cable package, a usage allowance will help put a stop to that very quickly, as will planned restrictions that only provide online video to “authenticated” existing pay television subscribers.

One thing remains certain – providers are still itching to overcharge you for your broadband service.  Consumers and the public interest groups that want to represent them must stand unified in opposition to Internet Overcharging schemes and for Net Neutrality protection, and never accept sacrificing one for the other.