Telephone companies will lose up to half of their broadband market share if they insist on sticking with DSL technology to deliver Internet access, according to a new report from Credit Suisse analyst Stefan Anninger.

Anninger predicts DSL will increasingly be seen as the “dial-up” service of the 2010s, as demand for more broadband speed moves beyond what most phone companies are willing or able to provide.  Credit Suisse’s analysis says DSL accounts sold in the United States top out at an average speed of just 4Mbps, while consumers are increasingly seeking out service at speeds of at least 7Mbps.  The higher speeds are necessary to support high quality online video and the ability for multiple users in a household to share a connection without encountering speed slowdowns.

A lack of investment by landline providers to keep up with cable broadband speeds will prove costly to phone companies, according to Anninger. He believes a growing number of Americans understand cable and fiber-based broadband deliver the highest speeds, and consumers are increasingly dropping DSL for cable and fiber competitors.  Any investments now may be a case of “too little, too late,” especially if they only incrementally improve DSL speeds.

Anninger says providers may be able to offer up to 18Mbps in five years by deploying ADSL 2+ or VDSL technology, but by that time cable operators will be providing speeds up to 200Mbps, and many municipal providers will have gigabit speeds available.

The impact on phone company broadband market share will prove bleak for phone companies in all but the most rural areas, Anninger predicts.  He says by 2015, cable companies will have secured 56 percent of the market (up by 2 percent from today), phone companies will drop from 30 percent to just 15 percent, Verizon FiOS, AT&T U-verse, and wireless broadband will each control around 7 percent of the market, with the remainder split among municipal fiber, satellite, and other technologies.

Anninger is also pessimistic about wireless broadband being a wired broadband replacement in the next five years.

A Credit Suisse online survey of 1,000 consumers in August found that less than half would consider going wireless only.  The reasons?  It’s too slow, too expensive and most plans have Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps and speed throttles.

Although cable companies are on track to be the big winners in broadband market share, still have one giant hurdle to overcome — a lousy image.  Just 36 percent of cable customers say they are “very satisfied” with their local provider.  More than 60% of FiOS and U-verse’s broadband customers said they are “very satisfied” with the services these advanced telephone company networks provide.  Consumer Reports has regularly awarded top honors to Verizon FiOS for the last several years.

Independent phone companies and smaller cable operators routinely score at the bottom, typically because they are relying on outdated technology to supply service.

This makes the marketplace ripe for disaffected consumers to jump to an alternative provider.  Unfortunately, as most Americans face a duopoly of the cable company they hate and the phone company that doesn’t deliver the services they want, there is no place for them to go.

Anninger also predicts the risk of broadband reform by reclassifying broadband under Title II at the Federal Communications Commission is now “minimal.”  That suggests Net Neutrality enforcement at the FCC is not a priority.  The Credit Suisse analyst says if action hasn’t been taken by winter or spring of next year, it’s a safe bet the Commission will never re-assert its authority.

You paid for "lightning fast" speed, but are you actually getting it? Find out!

In areas where limited competition between broadband providers has broken out, consumers are discovering their local providers advertising faster, higher priced tiers of Internet service.  But do you really get the speeds you are paying for?

There are a number of factors that can impact your speed — the quality of the lines to your home, whether you are accessing the Internet through a wireless connection, and how much congestion your provider copes with during peak usage times.  Here are some tips to consider:

If your speeds are simply awful — nearing dial-up at times —  especially when the weather is poor outside, you should first suspect a problem with your connection.  Call your provider and request a line test to determine if there is an obvious fault with the lines running to your home or business.  The usual culprits are cracked cable fittings, worn out insulation, water getting into the wiring, or squirrels that have used your phone or cable line as a toothpick.  If the line test is not definitive, request a service call to check your lines.  Phone cables are especially prone to water damage, often inside terminal boxes located well off your property.  Cable TV lines suffer from corrosion, insulation that has fallen away or cracked, or fittings that need replacement.  If critters have chewed through the outer cable, you will often also see the results on your television with a downright lousy picture.  The biggest problems always seem to appear in the spring and fall during major climate transitions.

If you notice speeds are much slower during the early evening and weekends and you are on a cable connection, your cable company has probably oversold service in your neighborhood and too many users are trying to share the line at the same time.  Cable companies can divide up the traffic by splitting the neighborhood’s connection back to the cable company in half.  The upgrade is usually done at a box or facility somewhere in the neighborhood, not at your home.  If this prime time slowdown occurs on a DSL or fiber connection, chances are the provider doesn’t have a wide enough pipeline to the Internet to accommodate customer demand in that town or city.

A squirrel's favorite chew toy may be your broadband cable or phone line.

Also remember that DSL connections from the phone company are sensitive to the distance between your home and the phone company’s central office.  Don’t pay for higher speed tiers of service if your phone line simply refuses to support those speeds.  Downgrade your service to a speed level you can realistically expect to receive in your home.

If you access the Internet over a wireless connection from a router, a major speed logjam can occur if your Wi-Fi signal faces interference from neighbors sharing the same wireless channel.  Sometimes just running a microwave oven can obliterate certain wireless connections or significantly slow them down.  If your signal strength meter shows poor or fair reception, try reorienting your wireless router.  The higher you can place the router and keep it free of obstructions the better.  Walls, floors, and even metal filing cabinets can degrade wireless signals.  Many wireless routers have two antennas.  Try orienting one antenna vertically and the other horizontally and see if it makes a difference.  Sometimes moving a router across the room can make a significant difference.  You can also try changing wireless channels if you routinely see a large number of neighbors’ Wi-Fi connections all piling on the same channel you use.

The best way to gauge what kind of Internet speeds you are getting is to perform a free speed test at different times of the day.  Your service provider may have its own test website to visit (try Googling the name of your provider, your nearest city and “speed test” in a one sentence search).  Broadband Reports has several different speed tests to try as well.

If you are not getting what you are paying for, be sure to complain and get some money back.

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KNXV Phoenix Qwest and Cox may charge your for faster Internet speed, but is your broadband really that fast 8-24-10.flv[/flv]

KNXV-TV in Phoenix explains how to make sure you are getting the Internet speeds you are paying for with some free speed test websites.  (2 minutes)

Frontier's Ann Burr sat down for an interview with a Rochester television station to discuss the future of landlines.

Frontier Communications told customers in western New York not to expect FiOS fiber-to-the-home technology from them anytime soon, claiming residents in upstate New York do not need broadband speeds that fast.  That prompted regular Stop the Cap! reader Bob in Rochester to drop us a note.

Ann Burr, general manager of Frontier’s Rochester division, told WHAM-TV reporter Rachel Barnhart the company believes its current DSL service is more than adequate for residents in the company’s largest service area.  This, despite the fact Frontier recently adopted a handful of FiOS markets purchased from Verizon Communications.  While Frontier has promised to continue delivering the fiber-to-the-home service in areas already offered the service started by Verizon, they have no plans to expand FiOS.

“We’re constantly upgrading our local networks to make sure they can get higher and higher speeds,” Burr told Barnhart. “Fiber lines are installed in newer developments, and neighborhoods that report problems with DSL lines get attention from technicians.”

With Frontier’s DSL service already available in 95 percent of Frontier’s Rochester-area division, Burr added, there is no need to offer FiOS in Rochester.

Burr, who was formerly president of Time Warner Cable’s Rochester division from 1995-1999, has made similar remarks in the past.  In February, she told readers of the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle they didn’t need ultra-fast broadband speeds from Frontier either.

from 'The Bridge'

Yet Verizon, one of the nation’s largest phone companies, thinks otherwise.  In upstate New York, the company is still completing its fiber optic network in cities like Albany, Buffalo, and Syracuse.  Verizon FiOS remains a top-rated favorite among readers of Consumer Reports.  Frontier’s DSL managed a less impressive 12th place.

Barnhart learned about Frontier’s broadband plans as part of a larger story about how the phone company will survive the age of the cell phone, as local customers continue to disconnect their Frontier landlines in favor of wireless service from providers like Verizon and AT&T.

Burr warned customers to think twice before disconnecting service.

“Don’t do it. Because I’ve personally been in a situation where my home was without power for a couple of days and you have to recharge cell phone batteries, which you can’t do if you don’t have power,” Burr said.

Burr can’t see a day when no one has a landline phone any longer.

“I don’t see that for a long time. I think that wired phone, copper infrastructure that’s been here for many years provides [the] security [and] reliability that people want,” she said.

Burr’s beliefs are contrary to industry statistics that show Americans continue to drop landline service.  Among those under 30, it’s sometimes hard to find anyone who has a landline at all.

The Bridge reports in the second quarter of 2010 alone, just three phone companies — AT&T, Verizon, and Qwest lost nearly 1.5 million landline customers, mostly to cell phone service and competing “digital phone” products offered by the cable industry.

Consumer Reports says its readers gave top marks to Verizon FiOS for its speed, selection, and service. Frontier didn't make this list at all.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WHAM Rochester Will Frontier Communications Survive in Cell Phone Age 9-15-10.flv[/flv]

WHAM-TV’s Rachel Barnhart talked with local residents who have disconnected their Frontier landlines and spoke with Frontier’s Ann Burr about the long term prospects for a company primarily delivering that service.  (2 minutes)

A British financial analyst has issued a new report telling phone companies they should forget about fiber optic upgrades — copper-based DSL service is adequate for consumers and doesn’t bring shareholders fits over capital expenditures.

Analysys Mason’s Rupert Wood believes companies are at risk of overspending on fiber networks that deliver speeds he claims few consumers want.

“The vague promise of future services may appeal to some early FTTH adopters, but will become increasingly ineffective as a selling point unless the rate of innovation in devices and services that are uniquely suitable for FTTH gets some new impetus from vendors and service providers,” writes Wood. “The future cannot be simply plotted against increasing fixed-line bandwidth.”

Wood believes wireless 3G and 4G broadband is where innovation and demand is greatest.  It also just happens to be where the biggest money can be made.  Providers can charge premium prices for wireless services while limiting access.

Wood

For at-home Internet, Wood believes copper-based DSL is fine for most consumers.  Wood points to American providers offering super-high-speed broadband tiers that attracts few buyers as proof there is little interest in ultra-fast connections.  DSL is cheap to provide, he argues.  Fiber is just ‘too risky’ and Wood suggests it’s not as “future-proof” as wireless.

So what should providers do with their fiber networks?  Short of abandoning them altogether, Wood recommends operators pull back on fiber roll-outs and deploy them only for experimental purposes.

“Conditions vary between markets, but in general the business case to move much beyond trials just isn’t there and we are already beginning to see some scale-back,” explains Wood.

“Bandwidth demand for fixed broadband is converging with the bandwidth required to stream TV, and its rate of growth will slow down,” he adds. “DSL [technology] might not be able to meet these demands at some point in the future, but we believe that this point is still a long way off.”

If you want to read more, it will cost you €5500 to purchase a copy of “FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015.”

Our analysis comes for free.

Wood ignores the most important reason why Americans are not signing up for ultra-fast premium speed tiers in droves — the current “early adopter” price tag.  Few consumers are going to justify spending $99 a month or more for the highest speed connections.  When price cuts deliver faster service at incrementally higher pricing, perhaps $10-20 for each step up, there will be greater demand.  If America was not interested in higher speed networks, Google’s proposal to build a 1Gbps fiber to the home system would have passed by without notice.  Instead, more than 1,100 communities applied to be chosen for the project, including just about every American city.

Wood’s report primarily speaks to a European market, where the majority of broadband connections come through telephone company DSL or wireless.  In the United States, the cable industry heavily competes with phone companies for broadband customers.  That is much rarer in Europe.  Wood’s claim that consumers care little about speed is belied by marketing campaigns that put cable broadband’s speed advantage front and center, and they have the market share to justify it.

In North America, although Wood’s report may be music to phone companies’ ears, refusing to upgrade copper phone networks comes at their peril.  Americans and Canadians are disconnecting their landlines at an increasing rate, abandoning those that abandoned innovation long ago. Cable operators report many of their new broadband customers come from those disconnecting slower speed DSL service from copper-loving phone companies.

The future is clear — sticking with standard DSL over copper phone lines in competitive markets is a losing proposition unless phone companies begin slashing prices to become a value leader for those who want more savings than speed.

Verizon determined the best way to “future proof” its network was to deploy fiber straight to the home in many areas.  Verizon’s vision carries a price tag analysts like Wood and those on Wall Street don’t like because it challenges short term profits.  But with Americans increasingly saying goodbye to their landline providers, not upgrading networks to give customers a reason to stay is penny wise and pound foolish.

When Midwest Publishing couldn't get their AT&T Internet service restored, a business neighbor allowed the company to run a cable next door and borrow theirs.

AT&T likes to think of broadband as a tool towards economic recovery, but too often service problems end up hurting small businesses.

Ask Pat Boll, business manager of Midwest Publishing.  When his company’s AT&T business broadband connection suddenly stopped working last week, much of the business activity at the company stopped with it.  Midwest Publishing, like many small businesses, depends on the Internet to conduct business, take orders, and assist customers.

Boll spent three days trying to get answers from AT&T customer service, but only managed to learn the reason why the company’s Internet service stopped working: AT&T claimed a disconnect order entered into their systems in May was processed… in late August.  That was news to Boll, because they never asked for their service to be shut off.

What was worse is that the mysterious disconnect order remained in AT&T’s computer systems preventing the telecommunications company from re-establishing the service, costing Midwest Publishing thousands in lost business and wasted time.

Like so many stories we’ve covered on Stop the Cap!, Boll turned to local media for help.  He contacted Tulsa TV station KJRH-TV.  Their “2 Works for You Problem Solvers” got in touch with AT&T and managed to do what Boll couldn’t accomplish himself — get AT&T to turn Internet service back on.

Small businesses who depend on the Internet should never have only one provider.  Having a backup service provider can make all the difference in an extended outage.  Many small businesses maintain basic DSL service or even wireless broadband as a backup in case their primary connection stops working.  The expense is well worth it if your business depends on the Internet to stay in business.

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KJRH Tulsa Internet glitch costs small business thousands 9-2-10.flv[/flv]

KJRH-TV in Tulsa shares Pat Boll’s story with Tulsa viewers.  AT&T provides DSL service through much of Oklahoma.  (2 minutes)