Phillip “Every other 2008 spectrum bidder except U.S. Cellular has since sold its winnings to AT&T or Verizon Wireless or has never provided competitive service” Dampier

AT&T is unhappy with a proposal from a wireless competitor it originally tried to buy in 2011 that would offer smaller competitors a more realistic chance of winning favored 600MHz spectrum vacated by UHF television stations at a forthcoming FCC auction.

T-Mobile’s “Dynamic Market Rule” proposal would establish a cap on the amount of spectrum market leaders AT&T and Verizon Wireless, flush with financial resources for the auction, could win.

“Imposing modest constraints on excessive low-band spectrum aggregation will promote competition, increase consumer choice, encourage innovation, and accelerate broadband deployment,” T-Mobile offered in its proposal to the FCC.

Without some limits, wireless competitors Sprint and T-Mobile, among other smaller carriers, could find themselves outbid for the prime spectrum, well-suited for penetrating buildings and requiring a smaller network of cell towers to deliver blanket coverage.

In a public policy blog post today, AT&T argues T-Mobile is behind the times and its proposal is unfair and unworkable:

First, the purported advantage of low band spectrum – that it allows more coverage and better building penetration with fewer cell sites – has been overtaken by marketplace realities under which capacity not coverage drives network deployment.  Carriers deploying low band and high band spectrum alike must squeeze as many cell sites as they can into their networks to meet exploding demand for data services.  Second, to the extent this is less the case in rural areas, those areas are not spectrum-constrained and the lower cost of building out low band spectrum in such areas is offset by the higher cost of the spectrum itself.

[…] But this is not the only point that should concern policymakers.  Such caps will also suppress auction revenues, potentially to the point of auction failure, ultimately reducing the amount of spectrum freed up for mobile broadband use and undermining the auction’s ability to meet critical statutory goals.

[…] Even if T-Mobile’s proposal did not result in complete auction failure, its proposed caps would suppress auction revenues, reducing the amount of spectrum freed up for mobile broadband use as well as funds generated for FirstNet and to pay down the national debt.  That is because strict limits on participation by otherwise qualified bidders will make the auction less competitive and will yield less revenue.  Indeed, if T-Mobile’s proposed spectrum cap was strictly enforced, Verizon estimates it would be barred from bidding in 7 of the top 10 markets.  AT&T would face similar bidding limitations, as noted in our filing.

AT&T suggests the last major auction in 2008 attracted 214 qualified bidders and 101 bidders won licenses, including carriers of all sizes and new entrants.

But an analysis by Stop the Cap! shows the breakaway winners of the 2008 auction were none other than AT&T and Verizon Wireless, which paid a combined $16.3 billion of the total $19.592 billion raised. For that money, they acquired:

• Block A – Verizon Wireless and U.S. Cellular both bought 25 licenses each. In this block, Verizon targeted urban areas, while U.S. Cellular bought licenses primarily in the northern part of the U.S., where it provides regional cellular service. Cavalier Telephone and CenturyTel also bought 23 and 21 licenses, respectively. Cavalier Telephone is now wholly owned by Windstream, which does not provide cell service and was selling its 700MHz spectrum to none other than AT&T. So is CenturyLink (formerly CenturyTel).

• Block B – AT&T Mobility was the biggest buyer in the B block, with 227 licenses totaling $6.6 billion. U.S. Cellular and Verizon bought 127 and 77 licenses, respectively. AT&T Mobility and Verizon Wireless bought licenses around the country, while U.S. Cellular continued with its strategy to buy licenses in its home network northern regions.

• Block C – Of the 10 licenses in the C Block, Verizon Wireless bought the 7 that cover the contiguous 48 states (and Hawaii). Those seven licenses cost Verizon roughly $4.7 billion. Of the other three, Triad Communications — a wireless spectrum speculator — bought the two covering Alaska, Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through its Triad 700, LLC investor partnership, while Small Ventures USA, L.P. bought the one covering the Gulf of Mexico. Triad 700, LLC sold its spectrum last fall to AT&T while Small Ventures USA sold theirs to Verizon Wireless.

• Block E – EchoStar spent $711 million to buy 168 of the 176 available Block E licenses. This block, made up of unpaired spectrum, will likely be used to stream television shows. Qualcomm also bought 5 licenses. Neither company has used its spectrum to offer any services five years after the auction ended.

So much for improving the competitive landscape of wireless. Other than U.S. Cellular, which is rumored to be on AT&T and Verizon Wireless’ acquisitions wish list, every auction winner has either sold its spectrum to the wireless giants or has done nothing with it.

If “highest bidder wins”-rules apply at the forthcoming auction, expect more of the same.

AT&T and Verizon Wireless have significant financial resources to outbid Sprint, T-Mobile and smaller carriers and will likely win the bulk of the available spectrum whether they actually need it or not. Smaller victories may be won by smaller competitors, but only in rural areas and sections of the country disfavored by the largest two.

Comcast’s usage caps are back for customers in three states.

Comcast has decided usage caps are in the future for more of its broadband customers.

Effective Sept. 1 XFINITY Internet Service will be capped to 300GB of monthly usage in central Kentucky, Savannah, Ga., and Jackson, Miss. Comcast says the plan provides “additional choice and flexibility.”

We’re uncertain how it does that, exactly.

Comcast will have the additional choice of slapping a $10 overlimit fee for allowance offenders for every extra 50GB of data consumed.

But the company says it will be initially flexible in how it penalizes those heavy users.

“In order for our customers to get accustomed to the new data usage plan, we will be implementing a program that gives you three courtesy months for exceeding the 300GB in any 12-month period,” writes Comcast in a new FAQ. “That means you will only be subject to overage charges if you exceed the 300GB for a fourth time in a 12-month period. On the fourth (and any subsequent occurrence), you will be notified that you have exceeded your 300GB via an email and in-browser notification, that an additional 50GB has automatically been allocated to your account, and that applicable charges will be applied to your bill.”

Choice and flexibility for the customer or Comcast’s bottom line?

Customers with questions and concerns about Comcast’s expanding Internet Overcharging scheme can call Comcast Customer Security Assurance at 1-877-807-6581. Customers might want to assure Comcast if they are going back to usage caps, they will start shopping for a different provider. Stop the Cap! recommends customers in these areas protest the usage caps firmly and loudly.

“There are no legitimate engineering or economic justifications for these caps,” notes consumer group Free Press. “But Comcast’s new Internet Overcharging scheme and its discriminatory treatment of competitors’ video offerings do pose a grave threat to future video competition.”

And to your wallet.

Analysts have estimated that Comcast’s profit margins on broadband service are at least 80 percent or higher. In 2008, Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. analyst Craig Moffett estimated Comcast’s data margins at 80 percent, and Credit Suisse reported in fall 2010 that Comcast’s gross margins on high-speed data had grown to 93 percent.

Since withdrawing a nationwide cap of 250GB in 2012, Comcast had tested usage caps only in Nashville, Tenn., and Tucson, Ariz.

Stop the Cap! thanks reader “MrPaulAR” for the news tip.

Frontier is enticing Rochester-area customers to “say goodbye to Time Warner Cable.”

Time Warner Cable’s relentless rate increases, particularly on its broadband service, are leading to calls for more competition in the upstate New York cities of Buffalo and Rochester, now dominated by Time Warner, Verizon Communications (Buffalo), and Frontier Communications (Rochester).

“Bloodsuckers,” came the terse reply of Cathy Slocum.

Frontier Communications is making the most out of the cable company rate increases with a new “Goodbye Time Warner” ad campaign (that incidentally includes a link to Stop the Cap!’s coverage of TWC’s modem fee). It is pitching $19.99 broadband price-locked for two years — an improvement over its earlier offers thanks to a major reduction in sneaky fine print.

Customers can get up to 6Mbps service (up to 12Mbps available in limited areas) at the special offer price as long as they keep a Frontier landline active with a qualifying calling package. There are no contracts with this promotion, but Frontier’s pesky $9.99 “Broadband Processing Fee” applies if customers ever choose to disconnect Internet service. A free Wi-Fi Internet router is included and the company claims it offers “free Internet activation.” But an installation fee still applies, discounted if customers choose the self-install option. Taxes, governmental and other Frontier-imposed surcharges also apply and new Frontier customers are subject to credit approval, which will show up as an inquiry on your credit report.

In the past, we have taken Frontier to task for its expensive early termination and modem rental fees, as well as its bundling requirements, but the company has since ditched most of these as part of its new self-proclaimed reputation as “BS free.”

Unfortunately, Frontier’s DSL speeds can wildly vary, so if you take advantage of their offer, be sure to verify the speed actually get at your home or office. If the service proves too slow to your liking after installation, you can negotiate canceling within the first two weeks without any termination fees.

Where FiOS is available in Buffalo, Verizon is offering promotional pricing on its bundled services, including an $84.99 offer including 50/25Mbps Internet with a Verizon landline offering unlimited calling. This is cheaper than Time Warner’s offer with considerably faster upload speeds and no modem fees. In parts of Buffalo, Verizon is authorized to offer broadband and phone service only, although several suburbs have franchise agreements that allow the phone company to also sell television service. A large part of the city and other suburbs are still stuck with Verizon’s copper network, however, which means DSL is the best they can offer.

Time Warner Cable’s new customer promotions, useful when negotiating a customer retention deal, have resumed bundling Standard tier (15/1Mbps service) Internet speeds into most offers. Previously, the company bundled 3Mbps service in many of its promotions. Broadband-only customers can pay as little as $34.99 a month for a year of Internet service at 15/1Mbps speeds, assuming one buys their own cable modem. A double play offer of broadband basic television (around 20 channels, mostly local over-the-air) with 30/5Mbps Internet service is now priced at $94.97 a month after a $5.99 mandatory modem rental fee is included (not optional with this package).

Time Warner Cable executives have repeatedly told investors its higher priced promotions are intentional to increase revenue and profits even if the company loses customers by charging higher prices.

Verizon FiOS offers in the Buffalo area.

“I moved here from the New York City area a year ago where we had two cable companies — Cablevision and Verizon FiOS,” noted Stephen O’Brien. “Competition changes everything. Not only were the rates much lower than here, the companies would offer you all kinds of incentives to switch from one to the other. One time we switched and got a free iPod Touch. The argument that the rate increase is needed to cover investment is the biggest red herring of all — Cablevision and FiOS spent many times more on infrastructure, yet their rates were much lower.”

Stop the Cap! recommends Time Warner Cable customers check out our guide to getting the best deal possible from TWC.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WGRZ Buffalo Time Warner Rate Hikes 8-6-13.flv[/flv]

WGRZ in Buffalo reports upstate New York residents are upset about two recently announced broadband rate hikes. Time Warner Cable says it needs the money to keep up its broadband service’s reliability. What alternatives do customers have?  (2 minutes)

Cablevision may eventually get out of the cable television business.

Although industry analysts, consumer advocates, and technology columnists have long proclaimed the era of “cord cutting” is upon us, cable operators have always been in denial the product that got them their multi-billion dollar business — selling packages of television channels — is rapidly becoming obsolete.

But at least one CEO sees the writing on the wall.

If you don’t “ride the wave” you “get eaten by the wave,” declared Cablevision CEO James Dolan.

The Wall Street Journal sat down for a lengthy interview with Dolan, who predicted “there could come a day” when the cable television company quits selling television service, because a growing number of viewers have shifted to online video.

Dolan, like many Americans, isn’t watching television as much as he used to, and admitted that both he and his young children prefer spending their viewing time with Netflix, not Cablevision’s television package.

Jim Dolan

Dolan worries the next generation of television viewers don’t need or want a cable television package with hundreds of video channels. Today’s youth wants fast broadband with on-demand viewing of series, movies, and video clips. The transition may have already started. Cablevision reported Aug. 2 it lost 20,000 video customers over the last three months, many moving to broadband-only service and 11,000 abandoned the cable company altogether.

Dolan believes the industry is setting itself up for obsolescence.

“I don’t want to be saddled with an infrastructure that is as big as the one that I have now,” Dolan told the Journal, fearing the bloated cable television package is becoming too costly and unmanageable.

Instead, Dolan has ordered network upgrades to improve broadband service and help boost the company’s image with customers. Cablevision focused most of its spending on broadband and Wi-Fi service upgrades over the past year, both to meet relentless competition with Verizon’s fiber network FiOS, but also to develop the platform Dolan thinks will eventually be the only product the company sells. Although Cablevision cannot match Verizon’s upload speeds, the cable company offers a free Wi-Fi service for customers Verizon lacks. But the changes and network upgrades have been expensive and noticeable, because few cable operators are spending as much as Cablevision to improve service.

The changes in approach were too much for former chief operating officer Thomas Rutledge, who departed Cablevision to run Charter Cable in December 2011.

One of the primary reasons Rutledge left was Dolan’s increasing involvement in the business, causing a clash of business philosophies. Just a few months before Rutledge departed, the FCC issued a report that exposed Cablevision marketing broadband speeds its network could not sustain, especially during prime usage periods. Rutledge believed this was primarily a marketing problem. Dolan concluded the existing broadband infrastructure was inadequate.

“I felt that we needed to reinvest,” Dolan said. “When we took a hard look at what we were offering,… it just wasn’t what we wanted it to be.”

As Rutledge and his allies rapidly departed for Charter Cable, Dolan ordered a 32 percent increase in capital spending to $1.1 billion last year, at least $150 million targeted exclusively on broadband improvements. This year he has already informed Wall Street it will be more of the same, bringing expanded Wi-Fi, new and improved broadband modems for customers, even faster speeds, new outage detection equipment, and an improved cloud-based DVR service.

Existing customers like the changes, but don’t appreciate the price hikes that have accompanied them. Wall Street has the exact opposite point of view, welcoming increased revenue from rate hikes, but concerned about the company’s spending. Investors complain Cablevision’s returns are well below those of other cable operators which don’t face the Verizon FiOS juggernaut.

Still, for some customers, the changes have come too late and Verizon’s promotional offers to switch to fiber have been too good. Cablevision did at least manage to add 1,000 new broadband and 3,000 new voice customers during the second quarter.

“We’re not prepared to starve the business,” said chief financial officer Gregg Seibert. “In terms of upgrades, I think what you’re seeing with the high-speed rollout that we just did is that we feel that our plant is in very good condition. We’re delivering over advertised speeds in every day part. We intend to keep the plant in that type of condition.”

Dolan’s philosophy of upgrading service to improve customer relations also clashes with John Malone, who is rebuilding his cable industry power base at Rutledge’s new home — Charter Cable. Malone believes industry consolidation, not expensive network upgrades, is a better proposition for shareholders.

Dolan told investors Cablevision is, for now, out of the mergers and acquisitions business. It has completed selling off its Optimum West systems to Charter and plans no further expeditionary buyouts in the near future. Instead, the company intends to focus on its business in the northeast. Dolan acknowledged the company is a likely acquisition target, most likely by Charter or Time Warner Cable.

Dolan currently shows little interest in selling out what is and always has been a family affair. Chuck Dolan, 86, founded Cablevision and still offers almost daily advice to his son James, who now runs the business. James also appointed his wife Kristin to lead sales, marketing and product management, with questionable results.

Some other highlights from the second quarter:

• Cablevision has enhanced its Remote Storage DVR product, now providing two tiers: 160GB and 500GB. Customers can record up to 10 channels at the same time. The service is available on customers’ existing set-top boxes;
• Last month, Cablevision announced an increase in our broadband data speeds;
• Wi-Fi remains a major priority for Cablevision and customer usage of its wireless network continues to grow. More than 1 million customers have used the service over more than 90,000 access points;
• Price increases were critical for Cablevision’s revenue growth this year. The company booked increased revenue from a broad-based $5 broadband rate hike implemented in January as well as a “sports programming surcharge” initiated earlier this year. The average subscriber that buys a package including cable television pays $5.49 more this year than last — $162.42 a month.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSJ Future of Cable TV 8-5-13.flv[/flv]

The Wall Street Journal sat down with Cablevision CEO James Dolan, discussing the future of the business as the industry watches another cable television programming dispute between Time Warner Cable and CBS.  (5 minutes)

Time Warner Cable admitted this morning extracting more revenue from existing customers was more important than attracting new ones, and long time subscribers responded by canceling service in above average numbers.

In a conference call largely hosted by incoming CEO Robert Marcus, a number of Wall Street analysts listened to Marcus’ vision for Time Warner under his forthcoming leadership. Marcus offered competing, potentially incompatible visions in his defense of a lackluster quarter: charge existing customers higher prices for service to boost average revenue per subscriber (ARPU) while also improving the customer-company relationship.

For most of 2013, Time Warner has been aggressively moving away from heavily discounted promotional offers to attract customers. Both outgoing CEO Glenn Britt and Marcus have repeatedly stressed heavy discounting of service during the past two years is now over, and the company is looking forward to resetting prices higher when the promotions end later this year.

It is part of the company’s plan to “drive better performance in the residential business.” An unfortunate side effect is that the company continues to lose video and phone customers and its broadband service growth has been so slow, one analyst called it “anemic.” The company’s quarterly results show Time Warner added only 8,000 new broadband customers in the last three months. The company still earned $1.42 billion from broadband sales alone over the last three months, mostly because of rising broadband bills.

Courtesy: Jacobson

Offsetting that growth, TWC lost 191,000 residential video subscribers, leaving it with about 11.9 million video customers. At least 56,000 customers also pulled the plug on Time Warner Cable telephone service.

“As we discussed before, this [new pricing] approach represents a conscious decision to pursue subscribers with higher ARPU, higher profit and lower churn even if that means fewer connects,” said Marcus as he defended the results. “So it’s not a surprise that as in the first quarter of 2013, subscriber net adds were down in the second quarter on a year-over-year basis.”

As customers deal with increasing prices for cable television and broadband service and the irritation of modem rental fees, many are cutting back on their packages to keep their bill stable.

Marcus admitted customer sign ups of triple play — phone, broadband, and cable TV service — were way down in the second quarter and a lot fewer single and double-play customers were convinced to upgrade. The company’s promotional offers have come with a higher price and slower broadband service, often only 3Mbps.

In a number of markets, especially in the midwest, customers are shopping around for other providers. They are finding AT&T U-verse to be a formidable competitor.

“Throughout the quarter, U-verse was pretty aggressive with a beacon price of $79 for their triple play and $49 for their double play,” said Marcus. “I would characterize those as aggressive promotional prices, and they had an impact. I would say that the impact was more pronounced as the quarter wore on. We’ve now responded to that in the market, and I expect that our relative performance should improve there.”

But for much of the rest of the country where competition is less robust, Time Warner intends to continue to hold the line on pricing and resist discounting even if it means subscribers threaten to cancel.

Time Warner Cable has gotten itself ready for an onslaught of unhappy customers, assigning nearly 1,000 employees to staff four national customer retention centers dedicated to trying to persuade customers not to leave. But these specially trained representatives have a dual mission — keep customers with Time Warner Cable, but don’t give away the store doing so.

Stock buybacks and shareholder dividends were a major priority for Time Warner Cable’s cash on hand.

“Not only are our reps saving more customers, they are also preserving more ARPU among the customers they save,” said Marcus. “As promotional roll-offs peak in the second half of 2013, we expect that our new retention capabilities will drive better revenue growth.”

In the broadband market, Time Warner changed little in the second quarter except to raise prices on service and equipment. Marcus could only point to the addition of 3,500 new Wi-Fi hotspots, mostly in New York City, as its signature achievement over the past three months.

On the residential side, broadband revenues were up 12.5%, but most of that growth came from a combination of the modem lease fee, an increase in the number of 30/5 and 50/5Mbps customers and a successful Turbo promotion.

Results for video and voice were considerably worse. Revenues were down about 4%.

But the company managed to report its highest ARPU ever, with customers now paying an average of more than $105 a month for Time Warner service. Most of that increase came from rising broadband prices.

Time Warner Cable has also been preoccupied with spending excess cash on hand to buy back its own stock, which creates shareholder value. Time Warner expects to spend at least $2.5 billion on stock buybacks this year. Shareholders also received $829 million in dividends (113% of Time Warner’s free cash flow).

“We repurchased 6.6 million shares for $638 million, and through July, we have repurchased approximately 83 million shares at an average cost of around $78.50 per share since we began the program in November of 2010,” reported chief financial officer Arthur T. Minson.

Time Warner Cable’s Board of Directors recently approved increasing spending up to $4 billion on stock buybacks.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WRGB Albany TWC Modem Fee 7-31-13.flv[/flv]

WRGB in Albany reports Time Warner Cable customers are angry about another price hike on the company’s modem lease fee effective Aug. 18. WRGB recommends customers buy their own modems to avoid the fee. Time Warner Cable’s Glenn Britt admitted earlier the fee is really just a hidden rate increase. (3 minutes)