Verizon, the country’s leading provider of millimeter wave 5G wireless broadband, is promising to expand service nationwide, but admits it will only service urban areas where the economics of small cell/fiber network infrastructure makes economic sense.

At the Mobile World Congress conference in Barcelona, Spain, Verizon’s vice president of technology planning told PC that when it launches its mobile 5G network later this spring, home wireless internet service will come along for the ride.

“It is one network, based on 5G, supporting multiple use cases,” Verizon’s Adam Koeppe said. “Enterprise, small/medium business, consumer, mobility, fixed. When the 5G network is built, you have a fixed and mobile play that’s basically native to the deployment you’re doing.”

That means Verizon’s millimeter wave 5G network is designed to be shared by everyone and everything, including businesses, residential customers, cell phone users on the go, Internet of Things applications like smart meters and intelligent traffic systems, and more. But that network will not be everywhere Verizon or Verizon Wireless currently provides service.

“Our deployments of millimeter wave are focused on urban centers. It’s where the people are, where the consumption is,” Koeppe said.

Verizon faces significant costs building out its 5G wireless network in areas where it does not already offer FiOS fiber to the home service. Verizon’s 5G network is dependent on a fiber optic-fed network of small cells placed on top of utility and light poles at least every few city blocks. That means Verizon is most likely to get a reasonable return on its investment placing its 5G network in urban downtown areas and high wireless traffic suburban zones, such as around event venues, large shopping centers and entertainment districts. The company has chosen to deploy 5G in some residential areas, but only within large city limits. So far, it has generally steered clear of residential suburbs in favor of older gentrified city neighborhoods with plenty of closely-spaced multi-dwelling apartments, condos, and homes, as well as in urban centers with converted lofts or apartments.

Koeppe

Rural areas are definitely off Verizon’s list because the millimeter waves Verizon prefers to use do not travel very far, making it very expensive to deploy the technology to serve a relatively small number of customers.

Other carriers are not committing to large scale 5G deployments either.

At a debate held earlier today at Georgetown Law’s Institute for Technology Law & Policy, former FCC commissioner Mignon Clyburn, now a paid lobbyist for T-Mobile, warned that unless T-Mobile was allowed to merge with Sprint, its deployment of 5G will only happen in “very limited areas.”

Sprint has plans to introduce its own flavor of 5G, which won’t use millimeter wave frequencies, by June in nine U.S. cities. T-Mobile has talked about deploying 5G on existing large cell towers, which means one tower will serve many more customers than Verizon’s small cells. But with more customers sharing that bandwidth, the effective speed customers will see is likely to be only incrementally better than T-Mobile’s existing 4G LTE network. AT&T is initially moving in the same direction as T-Mobile, meaning many customers will be sharing the same bandwidth. That may explain why AT&T’s current 5G hotspot service plan also comes with a 15 GB data cap.

Verizon says its millimeter wave network will, by geography and design, limit the number of people sharing each small cell, making data caps unnecessary for its 5G fixed wireless home broadband replacement, which delivers download speeds of around 300 Mbps on average.

“We engineer the network to give the customer what they need when they need it, and the results speak for themselves,” Koeppe said.

Verizon is already selling its 5G service in limited areas for $50 a month to Verizon Wireless customers, $70 a month for non-customers. There are no data caps or speed throttles.

Based on the plans of all four major U.S. carriers, consumers should only expect scattered rollouts of 5G this year, and only in certain neighborhoods at first. It will take several years to build out the different iterations of 5G technology, with millimeter wave taking the longest to expand because of infrastructure and potential permitting issues.

Investors are not buying into the substantial hype surrounding the forthcoming 5G revolution and many remain unconvinced about the benefits of spending billions of investor dollars to deploy the next generation in wireless.

A survey by telecom analyst McKinsey & Co., picked up a clear drag on proposed spending, especially outside of North America, as carriers are finding investors reluctant about the business case for 5G technology.

The survey found 60% of wireless operators cited selling investors on the merits of 5G to be their greatest challenge. Only 25% were confident they could successfully prove a substantial return on investment for shareholders who typically want short-term results. Investors are demanding detailed evidence that 5G networks, the most costly requiring large fiber optic networks and neighborhood small cell antennas, will pay off with increased revenue and customer demand. Unlike earlier cellular standards which required incremental upgrades usually on existing cell towers, the fastest iteration of 5G will require providers to construct costly new fiber networks with a very large number of short-range antennas expected to be placed on top of utility or light poles.

Customer demand for 5G is anticipated to be low until new devices are introduced capable of connecting to it, and investors already recognize consumers are increasingly delaying device upgrades since the industry dropped two-year service contracts with device subsidies. Ongoing upgrades to existing 4G LTE networks may ultimately dampen demand even for less costly 5G networks that will be deployed on existing cell towers. McKinsey’s survey found less than 35% of respondents are planning quick launches of 5G on gigabit-speed capable millimeter wave spectrum, citing the high cost of deploying small cell networks.

“Until th[e business case emerges], most operators will tread cautiously, leveraging 5G for near-term objectives and waiting for a clearer view on the use cases’ economics to accelerate,” the McKinsey report concluded. “Given the expense required to prove those significant use cases, it could be an uncomfortably long wait. And for operators in countries that don’t see 5G as a matter of strategic and economic importance, there is a greater risk of falling behind.”

In early 2019, most network operators will focus on network planning and funding, with the first significant wave of launches expected in the U.S. coming later this year. Just over half of U.S. operators plan to have “large-scale 5G deployments” completed by late this year, and U.S. carriers are the most optimistic 5G can make good business sense, at least for some applications. Other U.S. carriers expect their networks to launch by the end of 2022. But in neither case are those launches expected to be widespread across the country. Competing with cable and phone company internet with fixed wireless service is also a non-priority for most operators.

“At least at the outset, the majority see enhanced mobile broadband and the Internet of Things (IoT), rather than fixed wireless access or mission-critical applications, as the most prevalent applications,” McKinsey’s survey found. Among early potential applications are smart utility meter connectivity, traffic sensing, and connected public infrastructure like lighting and traffic control signals. Giving consumers a way out of choosing between Verizon and Comcast for home internet service is not going to be an early priority for companies like AT&T. In fact, starting a price war is the last thing investors want to see.

“Although commercially in its infancy, 5G technology is ready, and in most markets its presence will be felt from 2020 on,” McKinsey’s report states. “Yet the fact that commercial models are not ready cannot be minimized; the business case is marginal, and the investments to enable new business models are not currently planned.”

McKinsey believes what will ultimately drive a gradual rollout of 5G technology is network congestion which can no longer be managed through existing traditional cell tower networks, known as “macro sites.”

“In rural and suburban areas, as well as along roadways, operators can handle increased traffic simply by densifying existing networks with macro sites,” McKinsey shared. “In many highly populated urban areas, by contrast, they’ll need to rely on small-cell solutions for two reasons: a higher concentration of traffic, as measured by traffic load per square kilometer, and the use of higher spectrum bands (greater than 3 gigahertz).”

But making the jump from the traditional large cell tower to a network of small cells scattered around neighborhoods will require a great deal of money. Operators will need to build fiber optic connectivity to each small cell, which can be managed either with a newly constructed fiber project or leasing existing fiber optic networks, presumably from cable operators which already have a significant fiber presence. In either scenario, rural areas will largely be left out, because all-important network traffic density is generally inadequate to support the business case for 5G, and cable operators are unlikely to have fiber networks available to lease in those areas.

Homeowners in Greenhills, Ohio woke up one morning recently to discover anonymous contractors unspooling cable and planting orange-colored PVC pipes along a Hamilton County right of way on Sharon Road, straddling the communities of Greenhills and Forest Park.

Technological mysteries are uncommon in Greenhills, a planned community built in the 1930s as part of President Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal program. Greenhills was designed to be surrounded by a “belt” of nature, drawing people out of dilapidated urban settings and into quiet, tree-filled neighborhoods. Many who were offered homes in Greenhills by the Resettlement Administration never left, and their descendents still live in the homes their parents or grandparents once did.

Considering the slow pace of change and the desire to stay a quiet enclave, it should come as no surprise that many residents are disturbed about the quiet invasion of 5G small cells that will be going up all over town, especially because the owner won’t come forward and explain the project.

That layer of secrecy has brought suspicion among neighbors, even those younger ones that understand how much faster 5G service could be over 4G service available today.

“For me, I’d rather not be the guinea pig,” Andrew Steele told WCPO-TV. “That would be terrible,” Anna Steele, Andrew’s wife, added. “That would be horrible. Also, do we really even need it?”

A closer inspection of the infrastructure being installed shows Verizon is the most likely silent operator, which makes the prospect of millimeter wave 5G service for the community of 3,600 very likely. That could mean a new home broadband competitor in the area. But many residents do not want an option that includes small cell antennas.

Monique Maisenhalter told the TV station she was concerned about cell tower radiation causing damage to health and the environment, although such evidence is open to debate.

She and nearly 50 of her neighbors have signed a petition asking for the construction to cease until “more is known.”

Some believe there is no need for 5G service when 4G works well enough. Others are concerned about property values being lowered by the presence of multitudes of small cell antennas. Others object to the fact the equipment is being installed without full disclosure about exactly who is behind it. Even town leaders are flummoxed, as WCPO reports:

The mayor of Greenhills, David Moore, said he has no say over the fiber line installation because the lines are actually going up across the border in Forest Park, on a Hamilton county right-of-way on Sharon Road.

So we went to Hamilton County engineer Ted Hubbard, who said he, too, is struggling to find out who is laying the fiber and what their plan might be.

“The ownership is a big question,” Hubbard said. “And I have asked that. We are having a hard time finding out who actually owns it.”

Hubbard said several small contractors have received permits to install the lines but won’t tell the county who is behind the whole project.

“Who’s going to operate it?” Hubbard asked. “And who do we contact if there is an issue?’

WCPO in Cincinnati investigates mysterious new 5G infrastructure appearing in northern suburbs of Cincinnati (3:19)

Charter Spectrum customers across Ventura County, Calif., are reporting significant outages of TV, internet, and phone service as a result of the region’s ongoing wildfires, which have caused significant damage to Spectrum’s fiber optic lines.

“Our fiber lines have been damaged or destroyed by the fire in multiple areas,” said Spectrum spokeswoman Pamela Yu in an e-mailed statement. “Our technicians will be working to restore service as soon as it is safe to do so, and we get approval from the fire department to go into those areas. We are repairing fiber where we have been given access and crews are restoring services.”

Stop the Cap! reader Juan Hidalgo, who lives outside of Camarillo, told us he lost service late last week, saw it briefly restored on Monday, and is out of service once again.

“I waited on hold 49 minutes before a representative confirmed there was additional damage to their fiber optic service lines, which are spread across the county and have affected Spectrum and other providers,” Hidalgo said. “I know it is not their fault, but I wish they had redundancy in their network so they could transfer service to another cable not affected by the fires.”

Hidalgo and his family are safe, although they could see smoke from the Woolsey fire last weekend. Things have calmed down since then, and Hidalgo says he realizes that his inconvenience pales in comparison to the losses some Californians are experiencing.

“My heart goes out to them and their families, and I am aware that in comparison having your cable out doesn’t really seem that important, but considering how serious fires are becoming in California, finding ways to maintain service to get important messages out seems more urgent than ever,” Hidalgo said.

The fires have also caused disruptions to other service providers, especially fiber-fed cell towers in fire areas. As customers drop landline service, most depend on their cellphones to get urgent alert messages and stay in touch with friends and family, as well as emergency services like 911. Those who escaped from the devastating Camp Fire in northern California reported significant problems making and receiving calls during the peak of the fire and the resulting evacuation. Most reported text messaging was the most reliable service when calls did not go through and internet service was spotty.

Some attempts by volunteer groups and competing ISPs to bring up publicly accessible internet hot spots had mixed results, according to the Ventura County Star.