Time Warner Cable this week announced it signed up its’ nine-millionth Road Runner customer, making the company the third largest Internet Service Provider in the United States.

Broadband service continues to grab an increasing share of business for the nation’s cable operators, even as they continue to lose video subscribers.  During the last quarter of 2009, Time Warner lost 105,000 video subscribers  but added 120,000 residential high-speed Internet subscriptions.

Nine million subscribers paying even a promotional rate of $30 a month earns the company $270 million dollars a month — $3.24 billion dollars a year.

Hobbs

“This is a great milestone for Time Warner Cable, and it further proves that our customers enjoy the speed and content our HSD products deliver, as well as the value seen when bundling this service with our video and phone offerings,” said Landel Hobbs, COO of Time Warner Cable. “High Speed Data continues to be a growing part of our business and we look to keep adding new features and further enhance speeds as we move through 2010.”

The company claims it has not lost a significant amount of business to its most-feared potential competitor, Verizon’s fiber to the home network FiOS.  But the company is installing DOCSIS 3 upgrades to increase speeds in markets where FiOS competes for broadband customers.  Cable industry experts suggest broadband is becoming a mature industry, and growth from customers new to the high speed experience are fewer in number.  A strong percentage of new Time Warner Cable broadband customers come from landline customers defecting from relatively slower DSL service from phone companies.

As interest in high bandwidth applications like streaming video increase, DSL service can prove a frustrating experience for those stuck with lower speeds.  Despite claims by some phone companies that consumers don’t care about broadband speed, Time Warner Cable will offer increased speed tiers and upgrades in most of its competitive markets in 2010 based on the assumption many customers do.

While several American broadband providers contemplate limiting customer’s broadband usage or launching usage-based billing, Australia is headed in the other direction with today’s introduction of the country’s first truly unlimited and unthrottled broadband plan for a flat monthly price.

AAPT, part of the Telecom New Zealand Group, claims its new Entertainment Bundle will revolutionize broadband in Australia as its competitors are forced to adopt unlimited plans of their own to compete.

For $88US per month, AAPT offers ADSL2+ 20Mbps service that has no usage limits, no throttled speeds, and no metered billing.  The plan also includes free home phone line rental and a monthly $50 voucher good for downloading from the AAPT In Song music store, offering one million songs.  A Wi-Fi modem is also included in the plan.

AAPT's unlimited plan is the first to dispense with usage allowances, speed throttles, and metered billing for Australian broadband users

AAPT CEO Paul Broad said the company’s new unlimited plans would deliver Australians better broadband.

“You go to the United States and there’s no such things as caps – you get online and get an unlimited download,” he said. “Consumers don’t know what these caps mean.”

Broad

The plan requires a two year service contract.  Australian broadband pricing always includes a total cost of the plan over the length of the contract.  For this particular plan, it’s $2,129.34US for two years of service.

Previously, AAPT offered unlimited downloading only between the hours of 2am-8am local time.  Daytime usage was limited to a maximum of 60GB per month, with speeds throttled to 64kbps for the remainder of the month if you exceeded your plan allowance.

“We were first to market with 2am-8am unlimited [service], then 8pm–8am unlimited, and now 24/7 Unlimited Broadband downloads plus music streaming,” Broad said.

The company still reserves the right to terminate service for grossly excessive usage, not specifically defined, but that is a common right reserved by virtually every service provider.

Would-be customers are finding AAPT’s website and broadband plans confusing because AAPT’s broadband plans page does not yet contain details of the truly unlimited plan, which can be found here.

AAPT invites those with questions to call them on 132 082.

Metro Vancouver residents will have access to Canada’s fastest residential broadband service next Friday when Novus Entertainment launches its Net 200 tier providing 200Mbps service over a fiber optic network for $279.95CDN per month.  Customers currently paying $179.95 for the company’s 60Mbps plan will also receive a free upgrade to 100Mbps service on that same date.  No word yet on what the new usage limits will be, but Novus previously limited its 60Mbps plan to 360GB per month, unfortunate for a plan that carries such a premium price.  Novus charges 50 cents for each additional gigabyte above their various plan allowances.  Novus’ upload speeds are the same as its advertised download speeds.

Novus Entertainment has wired fiber optic cable in 33,000 large multi-dwelling units in parts of greater Vancouver, providing broadband, telephone, and television competition for incumbent cable provider Shaw Communications.  The two companies were embroiled in a nasty price war last year, with Shaw slashing prices to as low as $10 per month for video, phone, or Internet access.  To date, Novus has 9,000 subscribers, 8,200 of which subscribe to the company’s broadband service.

“We noted a recent survey by Harvard University which found that Canadians’ access to superior broadband performance and infrastructure ranked poorly among developed countries,” said Donna Robertson, Co-President and Chief Legal Officer of Novus Entertainment Inc. “While these results are disappointing, this provided Novus with the opportunity to not only take this challenge head on and provide customers with superior Internet speeds, but to also set us apart from the competition.”

Vancouver is the home of Novus Entertainment

Novus’ Net 200 will be available in selective buildings that are configured for 200 Mbps technology. With the vision of becoming one of Metro Vancouver’s major Internet and communications service providers, Novus continues to expand its service in Vancouver and Burnaby and plans to launch services in Richmond in 2010.

“Canadians want a service provider that delivers a fast Internet connection to meet their growing needs at a reasonable cost,” said Doug Holman, Co-President and Chief Financial Officer of Novus Entertainment Inc. “Yet they’re paying among the highest prices for some of the lowest speeds. Novus’ superior fibre-optic network allows us to provide our customers with best-in-class, reliable and consistent transfer speeds that the incumbents simply can’t offer.”

Shaw probably cannot match Novus’ 200Mbps service tier on their non-fiber optic cable network, but will likely continue to compete heavily on price with discounts that stun Canadians outside of metro Vancouver.  Shaw’s pricing in Novus-wired buildings is as much as $60 less than in other areas where Novus does not compete.

Novus also owns some wireless spectrum covering Alberta and British Columbia, so eventually the provider could mount a competitive challenge in the mobile telephone market, at least in western Canada.  There are rumors the company could partner with an eastern Canadian spectrum holder like Public Mobile, which owns spectrum covering southern Ontario and Quebec.  Neither company has launched service, and probably won’t for the rest of 2010, but could eventually provide additional competition in the overpriced Canadian mobile phone market.

The Electronic Frontier Foundation is not happy with the Federal Communications Commission’s proposed Net Neutrality rules because they come with built-in loopholes, the most egregious being a clause which allows providers to throttle, block or otherwise interfere with traffic that could consist of “the unlawful distribution of copyrighted works.”

The movie and recording industries have been attacking Net Neutrality for months, accusing it of providing a copyright-violating-free-for-all.  The FCC seems all-too-willing to adopt that meme, and write a convenient lobbyist-friendly loophole into Net Neutrality policies that would suggest provider interference with broadband networks is bad… except when this or that special interest redefines it as “good and lawful network management.”

For years, the entertainment industry has used that innocent-sounding phrase — “unlawful distribution of copyrighted works” — to pressure Internet service providers around the world to act as copyright cops — to surveil the Internet for supposed copyright violations, and then censor or punish the accused users.

From the beginning, a central goal of the Net Neutrality movement has been to prevent corporations from interfering with the Internet in this way — so why does the FCC’s version of Net Neutrality specifically allow them to do so?

The EFF is asking consumers to sign an online petition asking the FCC to yank that exception out of their proposed Net Neutrality rules, and let the industry use existing law enforcement methods to protect copyrighted works.  Of all the industries that seem to do just fine zealously efforting to protect its copyright interests, Hollywood and the music industry don’t need additional special protection clauses inserted into broadband policy law.

Law enforcement can use existing laws to chase crime, and most honest Internet Service Providers would tell you they don’t want to police their users.  Allowing this exception is a convenient backdoor to do what some have wanted all along — to throttle or block high volume network traffic like torrents and newsgroups, this time under the guise of taking a bite out of crime.

While directly appealing to the FCC might be more effective, signing the petition at least gives the EFF the ability to draw media and political attention to a worthy endeavor.

Let’s not repeat the same mistakes certain other major policy initiatives have endured this past year, where good intentions were steamrolled by lobbyists into a loophole-ridden, industry-protectionist horror show.

The best way to ensure an open and free Internet is to literally demand exactly that — no exceptions.

Consumers are increasingly cutting down their cable packages to keep their monthly bill down

Cable television customers have finally reached their limit.  For years, annual rate increases well in excess of inflation have annoyed customers, but beyond complaining, few actually dropped service.  That has begun to change as the economy, consumer debt, job fears, and other expenses have finally provoked customers to begin paring back on their cable package.

According to research from Centris, a consumer research organization, a virtual ceiling of tolerance for cable rate increases appears to have been reached for many subscribers.  Although consumers are not dropping cable en masse, they are not simply accepting a higher bill either.  They are dropping services from their cable package.  In 2008 and 2009, premium movie channels and pay per view suffered most from customer downgrades.  Consumers with multiple premium movie channels started by dropping one or two of them, and their use of pay per view service also dropped.  As the financial impact of the recession wore on, the next round of rate increases caused additional erosion — by late 2009 many consumers discontinued all of their premium services.

The goal?  To reduce or at least maintain a consistent monthly bill.  The average amount consumers are paying for digital cable dropped from $79 a month in the third quarter of 2008 to $70 in the third quarter of 2009.  That decline didn’t come from discounts from the industry — it came from dropping channels and services. In 2010, consumers are still pruning away, now impacting digital basic cable and smaller add-ons like sports and movie tiers.  They are also phoning their provider threatening to cancel service altogether if additional discounts cannot be found.  Cable operators, not surprisingly, have managed to find plenty of savings for consumers who ask and stand their ground, ready to walk away from cable.

The cable industry has sought to promote bundled services as an anti-erosion measure.  It’s much harder to walk away from a provider supplying your television, Internet, and phone service, especially if they lock you into a multi-year service agreement with a cancellation fee.  The savings promoted from bundled services come largely as a result of steeper price increases on standalone products and services, manufacturing “added value” for so-called “triple play” packages.

Some customers have divorced from pay television service altogether, deciding relentless price increases and the 500 channel universe shoveled in their direction just isn’t worth the price.  For many American families, however, such drastic cord cutting would border on traumatic, and they haven’t managed such a drastic step.

Luckily, a growing number of consumers have discovered taking the Luddite approach to television entertainment isn’t a requirement any longer.

Cutting the Cord With Online Viewing

With the growing penetration of fast broadband service in homes across the country, online video has rapidly become one of the most popular online services, particularly when it’s available for free.  The benefits don’t stop at the cost — programming catalogs are becoming increasingly deep and diverse allowing fans to watch entire seasons of shows on-demand, with a limited commercial load.  A consumer looking for something to watch might easily find more entertainment online than wading through hundreds of cable channels of niche and re-purposed programming (and program length commercials).

Cable companies are well aware of the trend towards online video.  First considered part-curiosity, part-piracy, today online video is provided by the major American networks, cable programmers, independent filmmakers, YouTube, and of course, Hulu.  It isn’t just for those torrent sites anymore.  And there is plenty of room for online video to grow.

The industry uses research companies like Centris to carefully track subscriber trends.  They want to be out in front of any sea change in viewing practices that could impact their business model and their revenue, and avoid repeating the mistakes others made in ignoring a potential threat for too long.

Wall Street is well aware of the potential threat as well.

Craig Moffett, a cable industry analyst with Sanford C. Bernstein is among the most prominent trend-watchers for the cable industry.  He sees some warning signs for the future.

“Still no evidence of cord-cutting, but as prices spiral higher, the stresses on the system are unquestionably growing,” Moffett said.

So far, the cable industry has decided the best way to fight potential losses is to get into the game themselves on their terms.  Comcast and Time Warner Cable, the nation’s largest cable operators, are launching their TV Everywhere concepts, which provide their broadband customers with online access to a myriad of cable programming, on demand, and currently for free.  The catch?  You must be a verified, current pay television customer.  If you want to watch a basic cable show, you need a basic cable subscription.  Want to watch Bill Maher online?  You can, assuming you are a verified HBO premium television subscriber.

Comcast’s system is already up and running.  Time Warner Cable is expected to roll out their system sometime this year.

The industry is even selling the public they applaud the online video experience as a win for customers.  Time Warner Cable president and CEO Glenn Britt said, “TV Everywhere is an all-around win for those of us who love television. It will give our customers more control over content and allow them greater access to programs they are already paying for, while enhancing the distributors’ and networks’ robust business model that encourages the creation of great content.”

He didn’t say it also protects Time Warner Cable’s flank from cord-cutting.  Lose the cable subscription and your access to online cable programming goes with it.

But the question remains, is that enough to protect cable television revenue?

The answer might be no.

[flv width=”400″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Invasion of the Cable Killers 9-15-09.flv[/flv]

Bloomberg News reported on ‘The Invasion of the Cable Killers’ — new hardware that lets you bypass cable, back on September 15, 2009.  (2 minutes)

The Coming Online Viewing War: The Players Assemble

Who owns and controls programming ultimately controls the distribution of it.  Time Warner Cable took several shots at Fox a few weeks ago when threatened with the loss of Fox programming over a contract dispute.  Alex Dudley, spokesman for Time Warner Cable, told NY1 viewers much of Fox’s programming is available online for the taking, so even if the network was thrown off the cable company’s lineup, viewers could simply bypass the dispute and watch online… for free.  His message – the dollar value Fox places on its programming is diminished when it gives it away for free online.

The fact so much of network programming is available online for free is part of the dispute over how much cable operators should pay to carry networks on their cable systems.  When the industry passes along those carriage fees to consumers, will that be the last straw for some who will drop their cable subscription and simply watch everything online?

“They’re the ones who are going to resist these price increases that the programmers are trying to push,” said Dudley. “One need look no further than the music industry for an example of what happens when consumers feel taken advantage of by an entire industry.”

Dudley’s remark is more telling than he realizes.  The cable industry is well aware of what happened when the music and newspaper industry ignored nascent challenges to their business models like piracy or free access to their content.  To cable operators, the music and newspaper industries’ online experiences are lessons to be learned and not repeated.  The music industry waited too long to crack down on piracy and lost pricing power as consumers simply stole what they rationalized was overpriced.  The newspaper industry failed to erect pay walls to control access to their content, and newspaper subscribers dropped print subscriptions to read everything online for free.  Cable industry control of content and distribution is key to protecting their business model for pay television.  More on that in a moment.

Now two other parties want to be heard on this matter — consumer electronics manufacturers and advertisers.

The Roku box is popular among Netflix subscribers who want to stream TV shows and movies to their television sets

This week, Advertising Age is running a story on the implications of cord-cutting.

The magazine takes note that online viewing doesn’t require a computer any longer.  Samsung, Boxee, Apple TV, and even Microsoft, manufacturer of the XBox, are now selling devices that bypass cable television and grab online video for users, often for free.

Netflix has already managed that for a monthly fee, and is rolling out service on all sorts of devices, from a set top box that streams content from the web to your television to video game consoles, and now even builds-in the service to some televisions and Blu-Ray DVD players.  Microsoft’s XBox Live service could be germinating a cable television service of its own, as it seeks to license content from programmers starting with Disney’s ESPN.

All of these services, along with traditional laptop or home computer viewing, could evolve into formidable challengers for the pay television industry.  Oh, and some new televisions on offer at this year’s Consumer Electronics Show build in support for Skype, a Voice Over IP telephone service, so phone revenue could be at risk as well.

Advertising Age believes this could be one of the entertainment industry’s biggest business battles of the next few years as millions, if not billions of dollars are at stake.

For the moment, the public face of the debate is a combination of downplaying its potential impact while the players quietly position themselves and their assets for the fight certain to come.

Both Dudley and Britt at Time Warner Cable call the potential trend towards online viewing interesting, but not much of a threat at the moment.

“We see some interesting stuff out there, but right now people are watching more TV than ever; cable-cutting is largely on the fringe,” said Dudley.

“A lot of manufacturers have come out and made announcements, but I don’t think they really are in a position to erode the pay-TV subscriptions that the cable industry has today,” said Park Associates research analyst Jayant Dafari.

“For many people, cable works just fine; the quality is great; the DVR functionality is great; the only gripe they have is that they’re paying for it,” Boxee’s founder and CEO Avner Ronen told Advertising Age. But “there is a growing generation out there where the whole definition of entertainment is changing, and their main source of entertainment is the internet.”

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Wii At the Movies 1-13-10.flv[/flv]

CNBC covered last week’s announcement of a partnership between Nintendo and Netflix to provide Netflix on the popular Nintendo Wii, in this exclusive interview with Reed Hastings, chairman and CEO of Netflix and Reggie Fils-Aime, Nintendo of America president & COO (January 13, 2010 – 5 minutes)

‘If It Becomes A Problem, We’ll Just Cut Them Off‘

The cable industry is in a comfortable position to leverage its control over programming and distribution to ultimately limit any competitive threat from online viewing.  In addition to mega-deals like Comcast’s acquisition of content-rich NBC-Universal (a partner in Hulu), the cable industry owns, controls, or can leverage carriage of its cable lineup contingent on programmers not giving away too much for free.  Advertising Age:

One tech exec, who asked not to be named, predicted that the minute cable operators start to feel the disruption, they will clamp down and use their market power to keep TV and films from seeping into next-generation devices. They’re already putting the squeeze on networks; any free distribution is an argument for lower cable distribution fees.

Stop the Cap! is also a player in this struggle, because a key component of the cable industry’s control of programming is the means it is distributed to consumers, and cable modem service representss one half of the duopoly most Americans find when shopping for broadband.  One potential strategy to eliminating the cord-cutting option is to enact Internet Overcharging schemes like usage limits and consumption billing that effectively makes it impractical for a consumer to “switch” to broadband for all of their online viewing.  Switching to the other half of the duopoly may not be an alternative. As online video projects like TV Everywhere will also be available to telco TV partners who wish to participate, there is every incentive to also limit video consumption on Verizon’s FiOS or AT&T’s U-verse systems.

Effective competition against entrenched players in the marketplace is impossible if those players control the content, the means of its distribution, and the ability to cut you off if you watch too much or switch to an independent competitor.

But this is history repeating itself.  Many of the same players and interests followed the same protectionist path against another competitor – satellite television.  It took strong regulatory policy from Washington to force a fair and level playing ground for an industry that didn’t want to sell content to its competitors, overcharged for access, and kept effective competition at bay for years, all while happily increasing rates for beleaguered consumers.

Here we go again.