Cohen

Comcast’s chief lobbyist stalled plans to unveil cheaper Internet service for the financially disadvantaged to use as bait to win regulator approval of its 2009 merger with NBC-Universal.

The Washington Post today reports David Cohen’s influence at the cable operator as its chief of lobbying has helped the cable company achieve its status as America’s largest cable operator and entertainment conglomerate.

Cohen has friends in high places thanks to his status as a Democratic Party money bundler. A self-styled “consigliere” to the Roberts family that controls the company, Cohen has overseen a transformation of Comcast from one cable operator among many into a high-powered force not to reckoned with in Washington or Silicon Valley.

Comcast’s growth into a mega-corporation with $58 billion in annual revenues came, in part, from dealmaking that won regulator approval in D.C. Maintaining good relations with those regulators is a Cohen specialty. It did not take the Post too long to find former FCC officials giving Cohen high praise:

• “Every meeting with David is incredibly substantive,” Eddie Lazarus, former chief of staff to the FCC told the newspaper. “He always comes with a willingness to find solutions.”
• “David loves politics, he loves government and he has incredible situational awareness — a 360-degree view of business,” said Blair Levin, a former senior adviser to FCC Chairman Julius Genachowski. “He’s just so good at what he does.”

Under Cohen’s leadership, Comcast has spent lavishly on its corporate lobbying and legal team. Today, 20 full time lobbyists work under Cohen’s direction, with dozens of others available on retainer. The company spent $8.3 million of its subscribers’ money solely on lobbying. The Post reports that makes Comcast the ninth biggest K Street spender, above Verizon.

The poor and disadvantaged had to wait for Comcast to seal the deal on their $30 billion acquisition of NBC-Universal before affordable Internet could become reality for them.

In 2009, Comcast insiders were hard at work on a discount program for the disadvantaged who could not afford Comcast’s regular prices for broadband service. But the program was stalled at the direction of Cohen, who wanted it to be a chip with regulators to win approval of its acquisition of NBC-Universal. The program, sure to be popular among advocates of the digitally disadvantaged, was a key part of approving the $30 billion deal.

“I held back because I knew it may be the type of voluntary commitment that would be attractive to the chairman [of the FCC],” Cohen said in a recent interview.

Regulators promoted Comcast’s “concession” to offer the discounted Internet service as a win for consumers as part of the final approval of the deal. In reality, Comcast was planning to offer the service anyway and finally introduced it in 2011 — two years after first being proposed inside the company.

That fact is a slight embarrassment to current FCC chairman Julius Genachowski, who has told audiences the discounted Internet program was partly to his credit.

“This particular program came from our reviewing of the Comcast NBC-U transaction,” Genachowski said in a speech. “Comcast embraced it as good for the country, as well as good for business. And I’m fine with that.”

Cohen defends Comcast’s lobbying expense as part of the company’s effort to combat scrutiny and challenges to its all-or-nothing video business model, denying customers access to a-la-carte programming.

Comcast’s scope has now grown so large, it has become a force few companies are willing to challenge, and those that try are quick to run into a blockade of Comcast lawyers, lobbyists, and carefully constructed contracts that protect the company’s bottom line from would-be competitors.

Deep pockets like Verizon, Apple, Netflix and Google have all tried… and failed to recast the cable television experience with on-demand programming, a-la-carte channels, and cord-cutting technology.

In response, Comcast has kept competitors tied down to the same cable packages that require subscribers to pay for everything, even if they seek only a few channels. Comcast leverages its broadband network with usage limits that effectively curtail cord-cutting among consumers looking to skip the TV package. Anyone seeking a place in today’s entertainment industry ends up dealing with Comcast sooner or later.

“They are hugely important because they can singlehandedly sink or swim multiple businesses that rely on the Internet ecosystem by virtue of controlling the dissemination of information through their pipes and now by supplying so much of the content,” said Joel Kelsey, a policy director at consumer interest group Free Press. “So many companies have come to us and ask we fight their battles for them because they are afraid of retribution.”

Cohen is well-compensated for his effectiveness. His latest three-year contract makes him one of the highest paid corporate lobbyists in Washington, with a $15 million annual compensation package and $3 million in bonuses, not including his ample stock holdings in Comcast.

His influence extends to the highest levels of the Obama Administration. Last summer, the family hosted a $1.2 million campaign fundraiser for President Obama, and the Cohens have separately contributed $877,000 to various campaigns. Comcast itself has spent $3.3 million in campaign contributions so far this year.

Telling Time Warner customers to get rid of the cable company’s phone service.

Best Buy employees in upstate New York are advising Time Warner Cable customers to dump Time Warner phone service and buy their own cable modem to completely avoid any additional monthly fees.

“We don’t have modems that will support Time Warner’s voice services, so basically any customer that has that bundle either has to make the decision to get rid of that service or deal with paying for that service every month,” said Syracuse Best Buy employee Drew Cacciola.

Cacciola told a Syracuse television station Time Warner’s supplied equipment is “old and refurbished” and that if customers purchase their own equipment, they will have the latest technology and won’t have to worry about ending up with another refurbished cable modem if the current modem fails.

“If [a new modem] breaks down you can get a new one you don’t have to send it back to them and you won’t get another refurbished one – you get a new one,” said Cacciola.

In fact, Time Warner phone customers do not have to cancel their phone service to avoid the modem fee, but they will be stuck with two pieces of equipment — a Time Warner-supplied eMTA that manages the phone service (with its Internet ports disabled) and the customer’s own purchased cable modem. For now, Time Warner is not charging customers for eMTA equipment used exclusively for its phone service.

Best Buy does not carry some of the models on Time Warner’s approved modem list, and the cheapest one WSYR reporters could find cost around $60, meaning it will take just over a year to recoup the cost of the modem.

Motorola cable modem

Time Warner Cable’s modem fee continues to create consternation for customers, especially when they learn the same piece of equipment used for both Internet and phone service costs $3.95 a month when used for broadband, but is free when used only for phone service.

Stop the Cap! reader Ben argued with a Time Warner representative trying to understand the reasoning.

“So, let me get this straight about the modem fee: If I have phone there is no fee but if I use the same modem to also get Internet, there is a fee?,” Ben asked.

Yes, came the answer. The explanation:

“About the modem fee: Our costs for Internet equipment keep increasing and unfortunately we could not continue to absorb the costs related to their purchase, maintenance and repair,” wrote a Time Warner employee named ‘Paul-E.’ “Leasing a modem ensures you have the most up to date and capable equipment to take advantage of our services as we offer faster speeds and additional functionality. These events sometimes require that we replace your current equipment to give you the best experience.”

Time Warner’s explanation for the new modem fee sounds plausible, but unfortunately for “Paul-E” (and the company),  much of it is demonstrably false.

Investors Business Daily reports the new $3.95 computer modem leasing fee could raise up to $500 million a year for the cable company.

“I would look at this as a price increase,” Bryan Kraft, an analyst at Evercore Partners, told IBD via email. “There are some questions that need to be answered before the impact on ARPU (average monthly revenue per user) can be reasonably estimated.”

Stop the Cap! took a look at Time Warner Cable’s financial reports and discovered the company’s capital expenses for its high speed Internet service (and cable modem equipment) have dropped for the third year in a row:

Time Warner Cable’s capital expenditures on customer premise equipment, including cable modems, has dropped for three years in a row.

Capital spending (as a whole) so far this year has decreased as a percentage of revenue to just 12% for residential customers. Time Warner has spent money primarily on extending service to potential business customers.

The need to charge you more for a cable modem is questionable when residential Internet service rate increases and customers gravitating to more expensive, higher speed services already deliver the company higher average revenue per customer without spiking their costs.

When the station relayed complaints about long hold times and busy signals for customers trying to activate their purchased cable modem, the response from Time Warner — don’t call on Monday or Friday or around morning or dinner time unless you are prepared to wait on hold.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSYR Syracuse Time Warner Cable modem charge 10-24-12.mp4[/flv]

WSYR in Syracuse covers the ongoing controversy with Time Warner Cable’s new modem fees, and a Best Buy employee tells Time Warner customers to get rid of the company’s phone service.  (3 minutes)

With a declining number of Americans willing to pay AT&T’s prices for smartphones and wireless service plans, AT&T’s future revenue growth will increasingly depend on getting the company’s current customers to pay more for data and adopt new types of wireless communications services.

After a quarterly earnings report found AT&T subscriber growth falling far behind its larger rival Verizon Wireless, AT&T appears ready to concede there is a finite number of new customers to be won from endless battles for market share.

AT&T was expected to add 358,000 new customers in the previous quarter, but only managed to attract 151,000. Demand for the latest Apple iPhone has yet to meet available supply, with most iPhones obtained by AT&T allocated to existing customers. AT&T exclusively launched the iPhone in the United States in 2007 and retains the largest share of iPhone owners, even after the phone became available from other carriers. Verizon Wireless had fewer problems adding new customers because it is not nearly as dependent on Apple.

de la Vega

Despite lackluster subscriber growth, AT&T reported stellar revenue during the quarter, partly from rate increases and the launch of usage-limited, family share plans. AT&T also continued to benefit from  tax savings, share buybacks, and refinancing debt at lower interest rates. With fewer customers adding subsidized phones, AT&T also paid fewer subsidies.

AT&T’s profit rose to $3.64 billion, or 63 cents per share, up from $3.62 billion, or 61 cents per share — $.03 ahead of Wall Street expectations.

AT&T can thank its wireless data services for a significant chunk of their earnings, with more to come.

The company reported more than 2/3rd’s of their customers (28+ million) are now on usage-based pricing plans. That is 10 million more than a year ago. The company’s new mobile share plans have attracted almost two million subscribers during the first five weeks they were on offer. More than one-third of those customers are choosing the company’s 10GB data allowance, which costs the customer $150 a month with unlimited talk and texting ($30 a month for each additional smartphone on the account.) Around 15% of new mobile share customers are choosing to abandon their grandfathered unlimited data plans.

AT&T’s forthcoming strategic redirection, to be announced Nov. 7, is likely to center around increasing revenue from the company’s wireless data network.

The average AT&T customer’s wireless broadband data bill is on the increase.

Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets, told investors it is taking “this massive data growth and building products and services on top of that.”

“One of the best examples I can give you is our launch of Digitize that will happen next year,” de la Vega said. “It leverages this huge smartphone database and adds services on top of it and not just data access, but services that differentiate us from the competition. So you’re talking about connecting the home with service automation and security monitoring. We’re talking about connecting your car with all kinds of entertainment services.”

That means AT&T sees its future revenue coming mostly from existing customers paying more.

“Those services are not dependent on adding more customers per se, but connecting more houses, connecting more cars and connecting more things that drive significant revenue streams with good margins for us,” de la Vega said. “In terms of what we see happening with others in the industry, I don’t think anything we have seen changes our plan. We’re going to execute [and] let others react to our plan, instead of us reacting to them.”

AT&T seemed unconcerned by competition in the current marketplace, especially from those offering cheaper plans. de la Vega predicted other carriers will come around to AT&T and Verizon’s way of thinking about mobile plan pricing.

“I think these mobile share plans are very compelling to customers,” de la Vega told investors. “And I think those that don’t put them in, in the industry will probably have to rethink down the road because I think the reception has been exceptional.”

John Stephens, AT&T’s chief financial officer, called AT&T’s data growth important, as long as those customers are on tiered data plans. With three-quarters of their customers buying “higher-priced plans,” AT&T can grow revenue by encouraging data usage that forces customers into ever-higher allowance plans that deliver revenue boosts indefinitely.

“I think some of the things driving our pricing and the price moves we made almost a year ago where we increased our data pricing are driving our revenue growth,” de la Vega admitted. “But we’re also seeing people sign up for more data. And the fact is, as you sell more smartphones or more tablets, people need more data. Usage-based data pricing means as usage goes up, we can see some of that lift also coming from additional average revenue per customer. So not only do we feel good where we are, but I feel really good about where we’re going, because you have to have that base of usage base in order to be able to monetize the data growth that we foresee in the future.”

AT&T continues to depend primarily on its wireless division for most of its revenue, but as growth slows, the demand for ever-increasing average revenue from each customer will have to come from increasing prices or finding new services to sell that customers want.

Applications that wireless carriers seek to monetize

Some other highlights:

• AT&T was questioned by Wall Street about its decision to voluntarily contribute a $9.5 billion preferred equity interest in AT&T Mobility into the Pension Plan Trust. Some analysts consider that amount unnecessary and above the amount required by law, despite the company’s assertion this would help protect the long-term health of AT&T’s pension fund. But some retirees note AT&T’s generosity benefits itself — the company’s contribution to the pension plan is invested entirely in AT&T’s wireless business;
• AT&T now has 7.4 million U-verse subscribers, driving wireline revenue growth to levels not seen in more than four years. But AT&T still only averages less than a 15% market share in the cities where U-verse is available, suggesting cable operators are maintaining their market dominance;
• AT&T’s new upgrade policy, which curtails early upgrades and imposes new upgrade fees, is having a dramatic impact on discouraging customers from upgrading their phones. That has kept AT&T’s upgrade rate at a steady 7%, even with the introduction of the wildly popular new iPhone. AT&T has effectively cut their subsidy costs and took a 28% increase in equipment revenue from new upgrade fees to the bank;
• Capital expenditures are on target at $13.8 billion, with more than half of that invested in the wireless business. Landlines and U-verse upgrades took a back seat.
• AT&T receives enough iPhones to activate 5,000-10,000 new iPhone customers a day and still that is insufficient to meet demand;

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/ATT Quarterly Earnings 10-24-12.flv[/flv]

AT&T’s Ralph de la Vega explores the company’s latest quarterly earnings, focused on its profitable wireless business.  (3 minutes)

AT&T: Landlines may be a thing of the past in rural areas served by AT&T.

AT&T customers in the company’s rural service areas are likely to see wireless broadband as AT&T’s answer to rural America’s demand for Internet access.

Speaking on AT&T’s quarterly results conference call, Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets yesterday previewed the forthcoming investor and analyst conference scheduled for Nov. 7 to discuss AT&T’s future in the rural landline business.

“I think there is a place in some rural areas where I see the outline, that [wireless] could serve as an alternative to wired broadband,” de la Vega told a Wall Street analyst from Goldman Sachs. “We are going to be talking to you about that on November 7, giving you more details about our thinking of how we can use this technology. And, quite frankly, the customer reception to the technology [is good] in terms of their willingness to pay for great quality data in large, large amounts.”

Some analysts anticipate AT&T is also likely to announce some additional expansion of the company’s U-verse platform to an additional 3-5 million customers that were not previously scheduled to see the service in their area. The build-out would take 12-18 months to complete. But that still leaves up to 15 million rural AT&T customers with either no broadband or the company’s slower DSL service. For many of them, AT&T sees wireless Internet in their future.

At the core of AT&T’s wireless broadband solution is the company’s LTE 4G network. AT&T is stressing it intends to roll out LTE upgrades in both rural and urban areas, unlike its nearest rival Verizon Wireless, which has prioritized upgrades on urban areas. AT&T claims its current network performs at speeds of 5-12Mbps — faster in low demand areas. In areas where AT&T has not bothered to provide DSL service, the company has repeatedly stressed it believes wireless delivers the best bang for the buck.

Unfortunately for rural consumers, access is not likely to come cheap, congestion will reduce overall speeds, and plans will include usage caps that are draconian in comparison to the company’s wired broadband services.

AT&T is a strong believer is monetizing data usage by gradually eliminating the unlimited data plan the company started at the dawn of the smartphone era. The future at AT&T is usage-based pricing.

“I think that more customers we have on usage-based plans the better we are,” de la Vega told investors.

In the last quarter alone, AT&T earned $6.6 billion from its wireless data service — up more than $1 billion (18%) compared to the same quarter last year.  AT&T now takes $26 billion annually to the bank just from its wireless data earnings.

Looking for new revenue opportunities

More than half (52 percent) of all U.S. consumers say Internet service is their home’s most important utility, according to a survey conducted by Verizon Communications as part of their Verizon FiOS Innovation Index project.

But Verizon’s research surveys go well beyond simply identifying who loves Internet access. Verizon’s real interest is identifying so-called “borderless consumers,” — customers who are seeking a seamless online experience and connectivity both inside and out of the home.

The convergence of wired and wireless broadband networks is a potentially enormous money-maker for Verizon, especially if you happen to be a Verizon Wireless customer.

“As the borderless consumer segment continues to grow, so will the need to identify, understand and anticipate what consumers truly want in their increasingly connected lives – today and in the future,” said Eric Bruno, vice president of FiOS strategy and development for Verizon.

Fran Shammo, Verizon’s chief financial officer, has previously told investors that monetizing data usage goes beyond text messaging and web browsing. The next frontier for enhanced revenue will come from the machine-to-machine segment. As consumers strive for a more connected future, enabling wireless connectivity for home appliances, automobiles, medical equipment, and other devices will create new revenue streams for the company.

Verizon’s new research surveys help the company target its future marketing to consumers most likely to be living the “borderless lifestyle.” Are you? Here are some key attributes:

• Above average income: Most are college educated, own their home, and nearly half earn $75,000 or more annually, so they can afford higher broadband bills;
• They are 18-34: Generation X and Millenials grew up in an increasingly connected world. Baby boomers are not far behind, but seniors are;
• Women somewhat outnumber men in their need to remain connected;
• You already have a computer, smartphone, or tablet and are connected to high speed Internet. Most of you want faster speed, if you can get it.

Verizon’s study becomes murkier over the issue of cord cutting. Verizon found that video streaming continues to drive Internet traffic growth, but at least 89% still prefer watching shows on their televisions. Verizon defines that as live TV, DVR, or on-demand from “TV/Cable service.”

But they did not ask whether consumers are watching more or less television provided by their cable, satellite, or phone company or if a larger proportion of viewing now comes from Netflix or other streamed content. That is a key indicator of whether a customer is gradually shifting viewing habits, which could ultimately make it easier to dump cable television.

With 90 percent of those surveyed looking forward to the day when every connectable device in their house can seamlessly interconnect and work together, Verizon’s potential revenue opportunities are enormous, if customers use Verizon Wireless for connectivity and not free Wi-Fi. Machine-to-machine wireless traffic can boost profits without costing the company much, especially under Verizon Wireless’ new Share Everything pricing. The impact of short data exchanges likely from home appliances and other similar devices is expected to be negligible. The profits from charging at least $10 a month to add each of those devices to a Verizon Wireless account are not.