Keep an independent eye on the scale

Without independent verification by an unbiased third-party, providers’ usage meters can measure any amount of usage — correct or not — with no recourse for those facing overlimit fees or service suspension.

That is why companies like Comcast depend on the patina of credibility a third-party company can offer when certifying Internet traffic measurement tools as accurate, even if that company has a vested interest handing Comcast the results it wants to see.

NetForecast just completed its third paid study of Comcast’s Internet meter declaring it amazingly accurate with an error rate of just -0.75 to 0.36%.

NetForecast claims it performed independent traffic measurements using real user traffic in subscribers’ homes as well as its own in-house PC and server.

“Based on our measurement results, Comcast subscribers should be able to rely on Comcast’s meter accuracy,” NetForecast says.

Comcast subscribers should also be able to rely on the fact that any cable company that involved with its usage measurement meter has a clear agenda to use it as part of a nationwide return to usage caps or usage-based billing.

NetForecast is no substitute for utilizing a financially uninvolved third-party to oversee any measurement tool that could expose customers to additional charges.

The country has been through this before.

Offices of Weights and Measures represent one of the country’s oldest efforts at consumer protection and trace their origins to the Code of Hammurabi, the Magna Carta and the United States Constitution. Most states created their own bureau to verify all sorts of measurement tools from scales to gas pumps in the early 1900s after an epidemic of widespread fraud shortchanged citizens.

Measure with confidence.

By 1910, the California Legislature was engaged in a battle with the railroads over the accuracy of scales used to weigh railway cars. Railroad tariffs for hauling goods were based on the weight or measurement of the commodity carried. The railroad industry occasionally hired so-called “independent” third parties to certify the accuracy of railway scales to fend off government regulation and oversight after reports of widespread fraud reached the legislature. It didn’t solve the problem.

In 1920, 52.4% of railroad scales, including those “certified” accurate were found to be well out of tolerance. When the industry knew the state of California’s Office of State Superintendent of Weights and Measures would oversee testing a year later, every scale tested in 1921 was suddenly accurate within tolerance.

The problem of accurate measurement was not limited to the railroads. Californian cattle and livestock ranchers faced dishonest hay balers that ginned up the cost of hay by sneaking in heavy debris like rocks and using inaccurate scales to charge higher prices. The 1919 Hay Baling Act was passed to ensure accuracy in the sale of hay and to stop the fraud and abuse the hay balers denied ever existed.

In Maryland, the fraud came from scales used by grocers and gas pumps — both rigged by their respective owners to deliver bigger profits at the consumer’s expense.

In the 1971 Report of the 56th National Conference on Weights and Measures, E.E. Wolski, manager of quality control at the Colgate-Palmolive Company considered it unthinkable that anyone other than a truly independent, financially uninvolved third-party should monitor the accuracy of measurement tools.

This Maryland gas pump is being verified for accuracy by the Weights & Measures program run by the state government.

“I do not think anyone will be so naïve as to even suggest that an elimination or reduction of inspection or enforcement would result in anything other than a return to the situation which made the need for them so apparent,” said Wolski. “It is a well-known fact that where enforcement drops off, so does compliance.”

In one state where private companies were permitted to self-certify, inaccuracy turned out to be rampant.

“I was informed that the average gallon was about a half pint short and that an average pound had been a little less than an ounce short,” Wolski said. “The shortages had been statewide and were almost universal.”

The state-employed director that finally established independent oversight of weights and measurements in light of the widespread fraud Wolski talked about was firm in his conclusion that “everybody, literally everybody (and that includes you and me), needs to know that someone is there watching what he does.”

Any financial interest in the outcome of a weight or measurement involving money is a temptation to cheat consumers, one that has effectively only been tempered all the way back to the days of King Solomon by truly independent oversight, typically by a state or local authority. That authority is on display today in the form of a compliance sticker found on commercial scales, gas pumps, and other measurement tools, attesting to their accuracy.

While it is nice Comcast at least bothers to investigate the accuracy of its usage meter, consumers should not be asked to trust the findings of a third-party paid to produce results. Consumers should insist that a truly independent regulator of weights and measurements regularly test and verify usage meters wherever they could be used to suspend a customer’s account or result in extra fees.

The New York State Public Service Commission has invited Stop the Cap! to testify about the impact of Comcast and Time Warner Cable merging on New York State residents.

Our testimony will concentrate on an examination of whether the merger is in the best interests of consumers and customers, focusing on issues ranging from usage caps to broadband speeds and pricing and the quality of service provided by both companies. Our remarks will also include a brief overview of the impact of the merger on competition in the state and whether New York would be better served by Comcast or an independent Time Warner Cable.

We will be testifying at the hearing in Buffalo, N.Y., on Monday June 16 starting at 6pm. The public is welcome to attend and will be free to make remarks during the open forum starting at 7:30pm. We urge all New York residents to attend this hearing or others to be held in Albany and New York City. Consumers have significant weight with the New York commissioners and your comments have often derailed the agendas of telecom companies in the state (the Fire Island Verizon Voice Link fiasco, Verizon’s service improvement oversight, stopping Time Warner Cable from cutting off late-paying phone customers on nights and weekends, etc.)

If a sufficient number of residents voice strong concerns about the merger, there is a significant chance New York regulators could place conditions on the merger making it untenable, or could reject it outright, which could torpedo the merger nationwide.

More information from the New York Public Service Commission:

The New York State Public Service Commission will be conducting a series of informational forums and public statement hearings on the petition of Comcast Corporation and Time Warner Cable Inc. allowing Comcast to acquire Time Warner Cable.

The informational forums will consist of presentations by Comcast and other invited parties on the proposed transaction and its likely impact on consumers in New York. The Administrative Law Judge, attending Commissioner and DPS Senior Staff may ask questions of the invited speakers.

Immediately following each informational forum, there will be a public statement hearing at which interested members of the public may offer their views about the Petition in person, before an Administrative Law Judge assigned by the Commission. A verbatim transcript of each hearing will be made for inclusion in the record of the case.

The informational forums and public statement hearings will take place at the following times and places:

Monday, June 16

SUNY Buffalo
Student Union Theater
106 Student Union
Buffalo, NY

We will post driving directions to the forum next week.

Those in or near greater Rochester should contact us and let us know you are attending. We may try to arrange car pooling if there is sufficient interest.

6:00 pm: Informational Forum
7:30 pm: Public Statement Hearing

Wednesday, June 18

SUNY Albany
Performing Arts Center
1400 Washington Avenue
Albany, NY

6:00 pm: Informational Forum
7:30 pm: Public Statement Hearing

Thursday, June 19

NYS DPS Office
90 Church Street
New York, NY

6:00 pm: Informational Forum
7:30 pm: Public Statement Hearing

It is not necessary to be present at the start of the hearing or to make an appointment in advance to speak. Persons interested in speaking will be asked to complete a card requesting time to speak when they arrive at the hearing, and will be called in the order in which the cards are received.

(Cartoon: Heller, Denver Post)

Speakers are not required to provide written copies of their comments.

The public statement hearings will be kept open until everyone wishing to speak has been heard or other reasonable arrangements have been made to include their comments in the record.

Disabled persons requiring special accommodations should contact the Department of Public Service’s Human Resource Management Office at (518) 474-2520 as soon as possible. TDD users may request a sign language interpreter by placing a call through the New York Relay Service at 711 to reach the Department of Public Service’s Human Resource Office at the (518) 474-2520 number. Individuals with difficulty understanding or reading English are encouraged to call the Commission at 1-800-342-3377 for free language assistance services regarding this notice.

Other Ways to Comment

Internet or Mail: Those who cannot attend or prefer not to speak at a public statement hearing may comment electronically to Hon. Kathleen H. Burgess, Secretary, at [email protected] or by mail or delivery to the Secretary at the Public Service Commission, Three Empire State Plaza, Albany, New York 12223-1350. Comments should refer to “Case 14-M-0183, Petition of Comcast Corporation and Time Warner Cable Inc.”

Toll-Free Opinion Line: You may call the Commission’s Opinion Line at 1-800-335-2120. This number is set up to take comments about pending cases from in-state callers, 24 hours a day. Press “1” to leave comments, mentioning the Comcast/Time Warner merger.

All comments provided through these alternative methods should be submitted, or mailed and postmarked, no later than July 31, 2014. All such statements and comments will become part of the record and be reported to the Commission for its consideration.

All submitted comments may be accessed on the Commission’s Web site at www.dps.ny.gov, by searching Case 14-M-0183. Many libraries offer free Internet access.

AT&T’s Magic Fiber Fairy brings fiber to you, if you approve AT&T’s business agenda.

If it wins approval from regulators to buy satellite TV provider DirecTV, AT&T says it will have enough money to afford to expand its gigabit fiber network Gigapower U-verse to an extra two million homes.

That bit of non-sequitur was the highlight of AT&T’s regulatory filing with the Securities and Exchange Commission. AT&T claims money for the fiber expansion will come from anticipated savings from programming volume discounts AT&T will get combining DirecTV’s 20.3 million customers with AT&T’s 5.7 million U-verse TV subscribers.

AT&T expects cost synergies to exceed $1.6 billion annual run-rate by three years after closing.  These savings will begin in the first year after closing, ramp up over four years and grow with the addition of video subscribers thereafter.  It is anticipated that at least 40% of these total synergies will be realized by year two after closing.  These synergies are conservative and derived from items such as programming cost reductions, operational efficiencies and reductions in redundant broadcast infrastructure.  Programming cost reductions are the most significant part of the expected cost synergies.  At this time, AT&T’s U-verse content costs represent approximately 60% of its subscriber video revenues.  With the scale this transaction provides, we estimate AT&T’s U-verse content costs after the completion of the transaction will be reduced by approximately 20% or more as compared with our forecasted standalone content costs.

AT&T believes that despite perennially increasing programming costs, especially for popular over-the-air and cable networks, the 20 percent of anticipated savings will give AT&T enough money to vastly expand its fiber network.

“The economics of this transaction will allow the combined company to upgrade two million additional locations to high-speed broadband with Gigapower FTTP (fiber to the premise) and expand our high-speed broadband footprint to an additional 13 million locations where AT&T will be able to offer a pay TV and high-speed broadband bundle,” AT&T wrote.

On AT&T’s budget, the company can send you this really nice star ceiling kit, but it won’t pay for gigabit broadband.

Before announcing its intent to buy DirecTV, AT&T already promised to expand Gigapower U-verse to up to 100 cities, while telling investors it anticipated flat spending on network improvements. On Tuesday, AT&T went further and dramatically cut investments in its wireline network to a level that raised concerns for the financial security of several of its vendors, including those supplying fiber optic cable and equipment.

AT&T predicted savings from the merger will amount to $1.6 billion a year, but not until three years after the merger closes. There are questions whether this amount is enough to fund the kind of fiber expansion AT&T promises.

In 2012, AT&T committed to expanding U-verse to 8.5 million more customer locations at a cost of $6 billion. That investment paid for AT&T’s less-costly fiber to the neighborhood service. Based on AT&T’s figures, the cost to deploy fiber into each neighborhood, while still utilizing existing copper wiring to bring service into each home, was $705 per home or business.

AT&T Gigapower U-verse requires AT&T to spend considerably more to extend fiber service directly to each premises it intends to serve. Google is spending approximately $4,000 to reach each home with fiber optics in Kansas City. But AT&T’s math suggests it only has to spend about $800 per home (based on the $1.6 billion savings figure it expects to begin receiving in 2017) for decommissioning the remaining copper and extending U-verse fiber for each of two million customer homes passed. What does AT&T know that Google does not?

But wait. AT&T is also committing to use that $1.6 billion to expand traditional fiber to the neighborhood U-verse to 13 million additional homes as well. That means AT&T has a budget that limits it to $106 per home for a combined 15 million new locations passed. That amount is enough for a fiber optic star ceiling kit or a really nice fiber strand light fixture, but it isn’t nearly enough to bring gigabit broadband to AT&T customers.

One thing is certain: AT&T will not be passing on any cost savings to customers in the form of lower bills. AT&T’s proposed investment is a blatant appeal to regulators with promises of broadband expansion the company has already made and shows few signs of actually delivering.

Supporting Comcast’s merger agenda

A conservative think tank with ties to corporate money and the American Legislative Exchange Council says the FCC should not reject the Comcast and Time Warner Cable merger for emotional, “big is bad” sloganeering.

Seth Cooper, a former director of the ALEC Telecommunications and Information Technology Task Force and current Amicus Counsel for the corporate group made his comments about the merger under the moniker of the Free State Foundation.

The FCC’s due diligence in that examination of the deal, Cooper says, must “disregard pleas for it to reject Comcast/TWC out of hand, based on appeals to emotional incredulity or ‘big is bad’ sloganeering; Stand firm against calls that, under the guise of protecting consumers, the agency impose conditions in order to protect market rivals…; reject dragging out its review process…; and avoid the imposition of any conditions on the merger unrelated to demonstrable concerns over market power and anticompetitive conduct.”

Cooper parrots Comcast’s press releases promoting the multi-billion dollar merger, claiming it will lead to a faster transition to digital cable, faster Internet speeds via DOCSIS 3.1, and expanded wireless backhaul services.

Unfortunately for Cooper, the facts are not on his side.

As part of Time Warner Cable’s Maxx initiative, the march to digital cable in unmistakable at Time Warner. TWC Maxx-upgraded cities now get faster speeds at a lower cost than what Comcast offers, and no data caps. Both cable companies are already in the wireless backhaul market, installing fiber to cell towers to support 4G LTE broadband. But LTE-enabled towers are highly likely to already have fiber connections, limiting future growth. A merger between the two cable companies won’t dramatically change that market reality.

AT&T’s claim it wants to expand gigabit fiber to the home service to as many as 100 cities nationwide requires closer inspection on news this week it has slashed spending on its wireline business.

Investors knocked AT&T’s share price today as they learned earnings from AT&T’s wired networks will be lower than expected.

TheStreet reported this morning the spending cuts are so significant, they are creating a financial risk for a number of AT&T’s major vendors.

Research firm Jefferies issued a research note warning that AT&T’s spending cuts began last month and seem to be ongoing. As a result the companies that have the most exposure to AT&T’s wireline business are at increased financial risk. Those suppliers include optical fiber equipment manufacturer Alcatel-Lucent, as well as Ciena, Juniper, ADTRAN, Finisar, and JDS Uniphase. As a result, all but Finisar saw their share prices drop significantly in morning trading.

Earlier today, AT&T reported it was ahead of schedule to complete its Project VIP expansion of its 4G LTE wireless and U-verse networks. As U-verse expansion nears an end, vendor orders may be in decline. Wall Street analysts see no evidence AT&T is preparing to spend much on any other expansion efforts, including fiber to the home service.

As Broadband Reports’ notes, without significant capital to invest in fiber upgrades, they are not going to happen.

These cuts make it hard to take the company’s claims of meaningful 1 Gbps fiber expansion seriously as there’s simply no budget cordoned off for such a project (“Project VIP” funds are already in use on other efforts). While AT&T has the press believing they’re deploying 1 Gbps to “up to 100 cities,” AT&T’s shrinking CAPEX tells a different story entirely.

Fiber to the home service is more costly than AT&T U-verse’s fiber to the neighborhood service because it requires a fiber cable be brought directly to each home or business — a more costly endeavor that requires careful cable burial or overhead drop line replacement, as well as the possibility of in-home wiring adjustments. Considering the billions spent on U-verse expansion to date, at least as much will be required to upgrade to fiber to the home service and there are no signs AT&T is ready to invest in anything beyond press releases.