Is your promotion with AT&T U-verse coming to an end? Are you actually paying regular price for Internet, phone, or television service? Why?

“AT&T will do whatever we can to keep your business,” an AT&T customer retention specialist tells Stop the Cap! “If you seem serious about canceling service by quoting us rates from one of our competitors, we will give you an even better deal to stay with us with faster speeds and a lower price.”

AT&T has been attempting to improve its “promotional churn” numbers — the percentage of customers who switch to AT&T U-verse with a special deal only to cancel after the promotion ends. So far, it seems to be working, especially in the Midwest where AT&T’s pricing has been so aggressive, Time Warner Cable admitted it has had trouble keeping customers and winning former ones back.

Providers are especially vulnerable when promotional packages expire and rates reset to the regular retail price, often $30-80 or more a month, depending on the number of services. When the first bill reflecting non-promotional pricing arrives, a lot of customers with bill shock consider their options and some leave for a better offer elsewhere.

Time Warner Cable handles this by offering a less generous, follow-up promotion when the original one expires. AT&T usually waits until customers try to cancel service before a “customer retention” specialist goes to work to save the account.

An AT&T customer service representative working in AT&T’s customer retention department talked with Stop the Cap! this week about AT&T’s current pricing and promotions, but requested anonymity because she was not authorized to speak with the media.

“When a customer calls in and asks to cancel service, those calls are automatically passed on to our department to change the customer’s mind,” says our source. “We take calls of all kinds including profanity-laced, ‘one-way’ conversations from angry customers upset about poor service, those fishing for a better deal, and those that have already set up an installation appointment with a competitor.”

“We are trained to resolve customer concerns, so the guy who loses U-verse service during Sunday football doesn’t need a lower rate, just a serious effort to stop those outages from repeating,” says our source. “We’re worried the most about customers who can quote our competitor’s best promotional offer and are prepared to switch immediately. These customers are clearly price shopping so we have to find ways to lower our price, improve our service, or a combination of both or the customer will walk.”

With U-verse still being a relatively new product, AT&T invests a considerable amount of money to provision service to new customers. To recoup that investment, AT&T needs customers to maintain service for at least a few years. If a customer cancels as soon as their promotion expires, AT&T will lose part of that investment.

“It is actually better for us to upgrade your service and even cut your price than to lose your business, so we do exactly that,” our source says. “That is why our best retention offers are not available to new customers. That is actually a good thing in my view because we’re treating our current customers better than those who are not,” she adds.

Stop the Cap! has assembled a guide to help current AT&T U-verse customers snag one of these retention deals and save. However, please be aware your results can vary based on a number of factors including: your past payment history (chronic late-payers will not qualify for the best offers), the level of competition in your area, the customer service agent you are dealing with, and the perceived seriousness of your threat to cancel service.

We have focused most of our attention on the broadband part of U-verse, but those with bundled service can also get some attractive retention deals.

“It doesn’t hurt to ask even if you are still on a contract,” says our source. “Although we won’t give contract customers the best deals, we can often offer a free speed upgrade through the customer retention department.”

What about U-verse’s 250GB usage cap?

“It’s not enforced in most areas and I’ve never seen a customer call to cancel because they had overage fees on their bill,” says our source. “If they did, I’m sure we’d just credit them. I don’t see us losing a customer over this.”

Getting Prepared

You will be calling AT&T. Do not bother using their online chat support, e-mail, or snail mail to ask for a better deal. You will not get one. AT&T’s approach to customer retention requires a specially trained representative to speak with the customer by phone.

Visit the website(s) of the cable company and any other competitors serving your area. You will need to have specific pricing and service details handy when asking AT&T for a better deal. “Don’t make it up, because we will likely take a look at the same information you found and point out any fine print that might make a competitor’s deal less attractive,” says our source. “We are asked to document these details in the notes we place on your account. These are available to any other representative that looks at your account.”

Think about what is most important to you, upgraded service for the same price or a lower bill. The representative will have a few different retention offers to choose from, and in some cases a supervisor may need to authorize the better-priced deals. Most will require a one-year term contract.

Making the Call

A lot of customers want a better deal but don’t want to feel stressed out asking for one. Don’t worry. In most cases the entire process will take less than 15 minutes. But it helps if you can call when you are free of distractions or pressured for time. Hold times might vary and in some cases a less-than-helpful representative might require you to start negotiations over with someone else.

Have paper and pen ready to take notes. You will want to write down the name and extension of the representative and details about the types of retention plans being offered, especially if AT&T manages to ‘lose the paperwork.’

Do -not- call AT&T’s regular customer service number. Instead, call 1-800-288-2020. You will be prompted to select your state, asked for the phone number associated with your account, and offered a menu of choices to proceed. You need to say or select the option to “cancel service.” This will route you directly to a customer retention specialist.

Making Your Case

You: I am calling to cancel my U-verse service. I have been offered a better deal with the cable company.

AT&T: Really? We don’t want to lose you as a customer so let me pull up your account. Can you tell me what our competitor is offering?

At this point, you want to quote the deal you found on the competitor’s website and quote the offer. Let the representative know you are switching because of the price and/or features.

An alternative approach that has also proven effective:

You: I just received an offer from my cable company that has made me seriously consider switching but I wanted to reach out to AT&T to see what you could do to keep my business. I’d like to learn what promotions I might qualify for.

AT&T: Let me check. Tell me what the competitor is offering you.

You: (Describing the offer) There are certain things I like about the offer from the cable company but I could be persuaded to stay with U-verse. I am just concerned because for the amount you charge for broadband service, I can get faster speed at a lower price with the cable company. Are there any promotions that can boost my speed and offer me a better deal?

When the representative comes back on the line, they will usually offer a small discount or service credit ranging from $5-10. But better deals come to those who hold out.

You: My neighbor is getting a better deal than that. He received a speed upgrade and is paying something close to half the regular price for the next year. Is there anything like that available?

AT&T: Let me check. Yes there is, but I will need to speak to my manager.

“When we put you on hold to ‘speak to a manager’ this usually means we are putting notes on the account to justify the higher value retention deal we are about to offer,” says our source. “But if something unusual comes up, like a one-time credit or waiving an equipment fee, we may need a supervisor’s approval.”

Stop the Cap! has verified some valid U-verse retention deals that are commonly available throughout the United States. In some highly competitive areas, these deals are often sweetened with a $100 service credit instantly applied to your bill. You can always ask. Although AT&T might offer some of these for six months, most can be extended to 12 months upon request. Be ready to commit to AT&T for the next year to avoid any early termination penalties in the typical 12 month term contract that comes with these offers.

It is important to be flexible and don’t fixate on any particular element in an offer. A representative may not be able to waive surcharges like a modem rental fee (buy your own) or a Local TV Surcharge, but they can usually find a deal that more than compensates you with a much-reduced rate.

If the representative seems reluctant to extend an offer to you, thank him or her for their time and call back and speak with someone else. Some AT&T representatives are more helpful than others.

Frequently Seen U-verse Promotions

• Broadband-only service: 3Mbps for $14.95/mo, 6Mbps for $23, 12Mbps for $25, 18Mbps for $28, or 24Mbps for $33 (Buying your own modem avoids rental fees but if you plan to rent, ask if there are any promotions that reduce or waive the fee);
• Bundled TV/Internet Service:  The most commonly available offers bundle 18Mbps broadband with U300 service at prices that range from $101-103, although $104/month can upgrade you to 24Mbps with U300 in certain parts of Florida. (1-yr contract)

“We really aren’t routinely offering many deals for speeds above 24Mbps because too many customers don’t qualify for faster service,” says our source. “Offering something they can’t get only further disappoints them, which is something we prefer to avoid.”

Can you drop by your local supermarket and walk out with a year of free home broadband service? In the United Kingdom, Tesco shoppers can.

For several weeks, Tesco shoppers have been offered a “Broadband and Phone Deal” that will return $117 in savings during the first year by waiving the cost of the broadband part of the package.

Tesco Broadband normally runs around $9.75 a month on a one year contract for up to 14Mbps unlimited-use service including free installation and a free wireless modem/router combo. Customers are asked to pay a $24 monthly BT line rental charge, but part of these fees are returned to Tesco shoppers as part of the supermarket chain’s rewards program which supplies vouchers based on the amount spent on Tesco products and services.

There are many ways to spend with Tesco. The chain is the second largest retailer in the world behind Wal-Mart and sells books, clothing, computers, software and electronics, furniture, music downloads and DVD rentals, and operates a financial services division that sells auto, home, and pet insurance to UK residents. It entered the telecom business years ago selling rebranded services from other providers, notably BT, formerly British Telecom.

News that two major cable operators are contemplating breaking up Time Warner Cable and dividing customers between them has caused stock prices to jump for all three of the companies involved.

CNBC reported Friday that Time Warner Cable approached Comcast earlier this year about a possible friendly takeover under Comcast’s banner to avoid an anticipated leveraged takeover bid by Charter Communications. Top Time Warner Cable executives have repeatedly stressed any offer that left a combined company mired in debt would be disadvantageous to Time Warner Cable shareholders, a clear reference to the type of offer Charter is reportedly preparing. But the executives also stressed they were not ruling out any merger or sale opportunities.

News that there were two potential rivals for Time Warner Cable excited investors, particularly when it was revealed possible suitor Comcast is also separately talking to Charter about a possible joint bid that would split up Time Warner Cable customers while minimizing potential regulatory scrutiny.

The Wall Street Journal reported Charter is nearing completion of a complicated financing arrangement that some analysts expect could include up to $15 billion in debt to finance a buyout of Time Warner Cable. Such deals are not unprecedented. Dr. John Malone’s specialty is leveraged buyouts, a technique he used extensively in the 1980s and 1990s to buy countless smaller cable operators in a quest to build Tele-Communications, Inc. (TCI) into the nation’s then-biggest cable operator.

In addition to Barclays Bank, Bank of America, and Deutsche Bank — all expected to finance Malone’s bid — Comcast may also inject cash should it team up with Charter’s buyout. Comcast is interested in acquiring new markets without drawing fire from antitrust regulators.

If the two companies do join forces and pull off a deal, Time Warner Cable’s current subscribers will be transitioned to Charter or Comcast within a year. That is what happened in 2006 to former customers of bankrupt Adelphia Cable who eventually became Comcast or Time Warner Cable customers. Analysts predict the two companies would divide up Time Warner Cable territory according to their respective footprints. New York and Texas would likely face a switch to Comcast service, for example, while North Carolina, Ohio, Maine, and Southern California would likely be turned over to Charter.

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CNBC reports Charter Cable and Comcast might both be interested in a buyout of Time Warner Cable that would dismantle the company and divide subscribers between them. (4:18)

Reportedly financing the next era of cable consolidation.

Both bids are very real possibilities according to Wall Street analysts. Comcast has sought formal guidance on how to deal with the antitrust implications of a controversial merger between the largest and second-largest cable operators in the country. The industry has laid the groundwork for another wave of consolidation by winning its 2009 court challenge of FCC rules limiting the total market share of any single cable operator to 30 percent. Despite that, a Comcast-Time Warner Cable deal would still face intense scrutiny from the Justice Department. Getting the deal past the FCC may be a deal-breaker, admits Craig Moffett from MoffettNathanson.

“The FCC applies a public interest test that would be much more subjective,” Moffett said. “It wouldn’t be a slam dunk by any means. The FCC would be concerned that Comcast would have de facto control over what would be available on television. If a programmer couldn’t cut a deal with Comcast, they wouldn’t exist.”

Roberts

Supporters and opponents of the deal are already lining up. Charter shareholders would likely benefit from a Charter-only buyout so they generally support the deal. Time Warner Cable clearly prefers a deal with Comcast because it can afford a buyout without massive debt financing and deliver shareholder value. Comcast shareholders are also encouraging Comcast to consider s deal with Time Warner Cable. Left out of the equation are Time Warner Cable customers, little more than passive bystanders watching the multi-billion dollar drama.

The personalities involved may also be worth considering, because Comcast CEO Brian Roberts and John Malone have history, notes the Los Angeles Times:

Malone and Roberts first brushed up against each other more than two decades ago. At that time, both Liberty and Comcast were shareholders in Turner Broadcasting, the parent of CNN, TNT, TBS and Cartoon Network. When Time Warner, which was also a shareholder, made a move to buy the entire company,  there was tension because Comcast felt Liberty got a better deal to sell its stake. Roberts grumbled at the time that Liberty was getting “preferential treatment.”

A few years later, it was Malone’s turn to be mad at Roberts. When TCI founder Bob Magness died in 1996, Roberts made a covert attempt to buy his shares, which would have given him control of [TCI]. Malone beat back the effort, but it left a bad taste in his mouth.

“Malone was livid,” wrote Mark Robichaux in his book, “Cable Cowboy: John Malone and the Rise of the Modern Cable Business.”

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Even cable stock analyst Craig Moffett is somewhat pessimistic a Comcast-TWC merger would have smooth sailing through the FCC’s approval process. Moffett worries Comcast would have too much power over programming content. (3:53)

Ironically, when Malone sold TCI to AT&T, the telephone company would later sell its cable assets to Comcast, run by… and Brian Roberts.

Most of the cable industry agrees that the increasing power of broadcasters, studios, and cable programmers is behind the renewed interest in cable consolidation. The industry believes consolidation provides leverage to block massive rate increases in renewal contracts. If a programmer doesn’t budge, the network could instantly lose tens of millions of potential viewers until a new contract is signed.

Many in the cable industry suspect when Glenn Britt retires as CEO by year’s end, Time Warner Cable’s days are numbered. But any new owner should not expect guaranteed smooth sailing.

“We expect a Comcast-TWC deal would draw intense antitrust/regulatory scrutiny and likely resistance, stoked by raw political pushback from cable critics and possibly rivals who would argue it’s simply a ‘bridge too far’ or ‘unthinkable,’” Stifel telecom analysts Christopher C. King and David Kaut wrote in a recent note to clients. “We believe government approval would be possible, but it would be costly, with serious risk. This would be a brawl.”

Usage Cap Man may soon visit Time Warner Cable customers if either Charter or Comcast becomes the new owner.

While the industry frames consolidation around cable TV programming costs, broadband consumers also face an impact from any demise of Time Warner Cable. To date, Time Warner Cable executives have repeatedly defended the presence of an unlimited use tier for its residential broadband customers. Charter has imposed usage caps and Comcast is studying how to best reimpose them. Either buyer would likely move Time Warner Cable customers to a usage-based billing system that could threaten online video competition.

“Our sense is the DOJ and FCC would have concerns about the market fallout of expanded cable concentration and vertical integration, in a broadband world where cable appears to have the upper hand over wireline telcos in most of the country (i.e., outside of the Verizon FiOS and other fiber-fed areas),” Stifel’s King and Kaut wrote. “We suspect the government would raise objections about the potential for Comcast-TWC bullying of competitors and suppliers, given the extent and linkages of their cable/broadband distribution, programming control, and broadcast ownership.”

Since none of the three providers compete head-on, the loss of “competition” would be minimal. Any Comcast-Time Warner Cable deal would likely include semi-voluntary restrictions like those attached to Comcast’s successful acquisition of NBC-Universal, including short-term bans on discriminating against content providers on its broadband service.

Customers can expect a welcome letter from Comcast and/or Charter Cable as early as spring of next year if Time Warner Cable accepts one of the deals.

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Bloomberg News reports if Comcast helps finance a deal between Charter and Time Warner Cable, Comcast would likely grab Time Warner Cable systems in New York for itself. (2:26)

Malone

Dr. John Malone’s Liberty Global has picked up an extra billion dollars it can use towards any plan to combine Time Warner Cable and/or Cablevision under Charter Communications.

Liberty has sold off some of its assets to build an enormous financial war chest it could use to launch a new wave of cable consolidation in the United States, potentially leaving Charter Cable as the country’s second biggest cable operator, just behind Comcast.

AMC Networks announced it will pay $1 billion to buy Liberty-owned ChelloMedia, a major international programmer and content distributor that operates 68 channels and networks available to more than 390 million households in 138 countries. Chellomedia is not well-known in North America but its networks are household names overseas. The deal includes Chello Multicanal, Chello Central Europe, Chello Zone, Chello Latin America and Chello DMC. In addition, Chellomedia’s stakes in its joint ventures with CBS International, A+E Networks, Zon Optimus and certain other partners are also part of the sale.

That $1 billion could be a key part of any blockbuster buyout deal because Malone can leverage that and other money with an even larger infusion from today’s easy access capital market. He has done it before, leveraging countless buyouts of other cable operators that built Malone’s Tele-Communications, Inc. (TCI) into the country’s largest cable operator by the early 1990s.

According to Shahid Khan, a media and cable industry consultant with Mediamorph, by this time next year Charter Communications could be just two million subscribers away from beating Comcast as the nation’s biggest cable operator.

Khan believes Malone laid his consolidation foundation with Liberty’s significant ownership interest in Charter Communications, from which he can build a new cable empire.

The most likely targets for consolidation are Time Warner Cable and Cablevision. According to Leichtman Research, as of this summer Comcast is the nation’s largest operator with 21.7 million subscribers. Regulators are unlikely to approve any deals growing Comcast even larger. But combining Charter, Time Warner Cable, and Cablevision would deliver 19.1 million subscribers under the Charter brand. A handful of smaller deals with minor operators like SuddenLink, Cable ONE, Mediacom, or Bright House Networks would quickly put Charter over the top of Comcast.

Malone’s public argument is that larger cable operators have more leverage to secure better deals and rates for cable programming, equipment vendors, and suppliers. It also delivers “cost savings” mostly through layoffs and cutting back on redundant operations like customer care call centers.

But Malone could also use the combined market power of the supersized cable company to keep competitors non-viable, especially for cable television programming. Frontier Communications learned what it is like to be a small player when its inherited FiOS networks in Washington, Oregon and Indiana lost Verizon’s volume discounts for cable programming. Frontier quickly found the programming rates it could negotiate on its own were so dramatically higher, it tried to convince FiOS TV subscribers to switch to satellite television instead.

Charter could also raise prices for broadband services in areas where its potential partners have not increased them quickly enough.

Ironically, AMC Networks’ one billion dollar buyout of Chellomedia could ultimately become the catalyst for a Malone-driven buyout of AMC’s former owner — Cablevision.

Horse and buggy broadband in the slow lane.

One of Australia’s largest broadband suppliers has declared the country’s satellite solution for rural broadband hopelessly overloaded to the point of being “almost unusable” and has stopped selling access.

iiNet announced this week it would no longer sign up new customers of NBN Co’s rural satellite network because the service is oversold in their view.

“We could not continue to offer a service markedly below both our own and our customers’ expectations,”  iiNet’s chief executive Michael Malone said in a statement. “During occasional peak periods the service was so slow as to be almost unusable. As more people are added to the network, quality will only decline further. In the absence of any action by NBN Co to increase transmission capacity, I call on the rest of the industry to respect their existing customers and also cease sale.”

NBN Co, however, claimed it still had room for an extra 5,000 customers — mostly on its spot beam targeting central and western Australia. A spokesperson for the satellite venture did admit satellite beams covering NSW, Tasmania and Queensland were near capacity. NBN Co is investigating leasing more bandwidth on board the satellite, but cost concerns may make that impossible.

The venture claims 48,000 Australians can satisfactorily share the interim satellite broadband service, which is supposed to offer 6Mbps speed. But as Australians join others around the world favoring online video and video conferencing over services like Skype, those original estimates have to be scrapped. In the evenings, some customers report speeds drop below 56kbps or the service simply freezes up and stops working altogether. In response, NBN has adopted a strict monthly usage limit of 9GB and has told customers they will likely have to wait up to two years for a capacity increase.

The government is planning to launch two new custom-made satellites in 2015 to ease capacity concerns. NBN Co claims the two satellites will deliver 25/5Mbps service for 200,000 rural Australians, assuming usage estimates of today’s average broadband user.

Critics contend satellite broadband is not a good long-term solution except in the most rural of sparsely populated areas. Although providing wired service may be too costly, ground-based wireless services could be the most capable technology to contend with future demand and capacity concerns.

iiNet and other ISPs may already be headed in that direction. Some are advising customers to choose fixed wireless options from Australia’s cell phone providers, although those plans are heavily capped and very expensive.

Broadband availability has a direct impact on property sales in rural Australia. A couple that purchased a home in Mount Bruno, near Wangaratta in north-east Victoria discovered only after closing the deal that NBN Co would not sell them satellite broadband because the spot beam targeting Victoria was full.

The couple needs Internet access for work and their telephone line is unsuitable for ADSL. Mobile broadband in the Mount Bruno area is sub-par and expensive as well. As a result, the couple will have to rent office space in Glenrowan or Wangaratta that qualifies for wired broadband until at least 2015, when the next NBN satellite is launched.

iiNet regrets having to turn customers away.

“At its peak, we had 500 customers signing up every week for our NBN satellite services. There is clearly a significant demand for higher quality broadband in remote Australia, and we’re absolutely gutted that we’ve had to withdraw this crucial service from sale,” said Malone.