AT&T says it plans to adopt fiber to the home service in cities around the United States as part of an expansion of its U-verse GigaPower service.

CEO Randall Stephenson told investors at the Morgan Stanley Technology, Telecom, and Media Conference the “cost dynamics” of fiber optics have become “really encouraging” in its targeted fiber deployment in Austin, Tex.

“In fact I would tell you we are so encouraged that we want to begin taking this to other communities [where] we can get the terms and conditions like we have in Austin,” Stephenson said, referring to Austin’s red-tape cutting and clearing the way for fiber upgrades with eased permit requirements and pole attachment policies. “We are redirecting investment to fiber to the home deployment, and in fact we are going to launch the service in Dallas this summer.”

Stephenson added that where U-verse faces significant competition from a “new competitor,” AT&T will be “a little more aggressive and assertive in deploying that technology around the country.”

That most likely means AT&T will choose fiber to the home service in areas facing imminent competition from Google Fiber or another similar provider.

Austin is getting an upgrade just in time for competition with AT&T and Google.

There is no market for super-fast broadband speeds, unless your competitor decides to offer them.

Time Warner Cable customers in Austin will benefit from major Internet speed increases that the company insists have nothing to do with its competition.

Google is planning to offer gigabit broadband in select neighborhoods and AT&T is delivering 300Mbps service to a limited number of Austin customers over its slowly expanding fiber network. Coincidentally, Time Warner Cable now plans to match AT&T’s current top speed of 300Mbps beginning this summer.

“Our Austin network allows us to implement the speed increases quickly, and since it’s a rapidly growing market where we know there is demand for faster speeds, we’re moving forward with this aspect right away,” a spokeswoman for Time Warner Cable wrote in an email to CED.

“These substantial speed increases mean Time Warner Cable Internet customers have incredibly powerful new choices for services and features to meet their needs,” said Kathy Brabson, area vice president of operations for Time Warner Cable in Central Texas. “In stark contrast to our competitors, upon completion of this short roll out phase, these faster speeds and choices will be available to every Time Warner Cable customer in every area we serve in the Austin market, not just select neighborhoods.”

Time Warner has also been furiously expanding its Wi-Fi service, available at no cost to Internet customers with Standard Internet or above. To date the company has installed more than 1,300 hotspots with another 1,000 scheduled for installation this year.

Along with Austin, the other areas that will get new speeds include Round Rock, Cedar Park, Leander, San Marcos, Elgin, Marble Falls, Lockhart, Bastrop, Fredericksburg, Taylor, Smithville, Wimberley, Liberty Hill, Lago Vista, Buda, Kyle, Elroy, and Lakeway.

Business Services customers in the area will also have access and can upgrade their service as the new plans are introduced starting this summer. TWC Business Services will introduce the new speed plans of 100 x 10, 200 x 20 and 300 x 20 as add-on options to its existing Wideband plans.

Current Standard Internet and above customers will receive new modems, likely produced by Arris or Technicolor. More information will be sent to customers as the launch dates approach. It is unclear if customers will have to pay to rent the new modems, will get to use them for free, and/or if they will be available separately for purchase.

Aereo’s over the air antenna is about the size of a dime.

Aereo is coming to Austin in March.

Already available in four other Texas cities, Aereo will allow Austin residents to watch local over-the-air television stations on mobile devices, tablets or home computers through live video streaming.

Aereo will accept customers for its Austin service from these counties: Bastrop, Blanco, Burnet, Caldwell, Fayette, Gillespie, Hays, Lee, Llano, Mason, Travis and Williamson.

Customers are invited to sign up early for the waiting list on their website to get the service first when it launches March 3. Aereo Austin subscribers will be able to record and watch 19 over-the-air channels, at rates starting at $8 a month.

Google has proposed expanding its gigabit fiber network to nine metropolitan areas around the United States, but none of them include cities in the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast dominated by Time Warner Cable, Comcast, and Verizon FiOS.

Altogether, the expansion project could bring fiber to the home Internet service to 34 new cities:

• Arizona: Phoenix, Scottsdale, Tempe
• California: San Jose, Santa Clara, Sunnyvale, Mountain View, Palo Alto
• Georgia: Atlanta, Avondale Estates, Brookhaven, College Park, Decatur, East Point, Hapeville, Sandy Springs, Smyrna
• North Carolina: Charlotte, Carrboro, Cary, Chapel Hill, Durham, Garner, Morrisville, Raleigh
• Oregon: Portland, Beaverton, Hillsboro, Gresham, Lake Oswego, Tigard
• Tennessee: Nashville-Davidson
• Texas: San Antonio
• Utah: Salt Lake City

Google’s Fiber Blog:

Now that we’ve learned a lot from our Google Fiber projects in Kansas City, Austin and Provo, we want to help build more ultra-fast networks. So we’ve invited cities in nine metro areas around the U.S.—34 cities altogether—to work with us to explore what it would take to bring them Google Fiber.

We aim to provide updates by the end of the year about which cities will be getting Google Fiber. Between now and then, we’ll work closely with each city’s leaders on a joint planning process that will not only map out a Google Fiber network in detail, but also assess what unique local challenges we might face. These are such big jobs that advance planning goes a long way toward helping us stick to schedules and minimize disruption for residents.

We’re going to work on a detailed study of local factors that could affect construction, like topography (e.g., hills, flood zones), housing density and the condition of local infrastructure. Meanwhile, cities will complete a checklist of items that will help them get ready for a project of this scale and speed. For example, they’ll provide us with maps of existing conduit, water, gas and electricity lines so that we can plan where to place fiber. They’ll also help us find ways to access existing infrastructure—like utility poles—so we don’t unnecessarily dig up streets or have to put up a new pole next to an existing one.

While we do want to bring Fiber to every one of these cities, it might not work out for everyone. But cities who go through this process with us will be more prepared for us or any provider who wants to build a fiber network. In fact, we want to give everyone a boost in their thinking about how to bring fiber to their communities; we plan to share what we learn in these 34 cities, and in the meantime you can check out some tips in a recent guest post on the Google Fiber blog by industry expert Joanne Hovis. Stay tuned for updates, and we hope this news inspires more communities across America to take steps to get to a gig.

Google does not guarantee every community will actually get the service, and a read between the lines makes it clear that a close working relationship between Google and city officials and utilities will be essential for projects to move forward. Bureaucratic red tape could be a fiber-killer in some of these communities, as could an intransigent utility fighting to keep Google fiber off utility-owned poles.

Google continues to completely ignore the northeastern United States for fiber expansion. Analysts suggest Google will not enter areas where fiber broadband service already exists, and this region of the country is home to the largest deployment of Verizon’s FiOS. Despite the fact Verizon has canceled further expansion, and large sections of the region have little chance of seeing a fiber upgrade anytime soon, Google seems more interested in serving the middle of the country and fast growing areas including North Carolina, Georgia, Phoenix and Texas. Its choice of San Jose obviously reflects the presence of Silicon Valley.

A Wall Street research firm is asking questions about the “mixed messages” AT&T is sending consumers over its broadband offerings.

Ovum Research senior analyst Kamalini Ganguly said AT&T’s fiber to the home (FTTH) network in Austin — set to upgrade customers to 1Gbps next year — is likely to confuse AT&T and its shareholders over the future direction of AT&T’s current fiber to the neighborhood (FTTN) upgrade effort, dubbed Project VIP.

Having spent eight years deploying the U-verse FTTN service, a year ago AT&T chose to expand household coverage and upgrade speeds. That effort, called Project VIP, is still ongoing and until now has reflected AT&T’s projection that 45Mbps downstream (and 6Mbps upstream) should be good enough for the majority of its customers.

AT&T says it intends to boost part of its Project VIP footprint to 75Mbps or 100Mbps with VDSL2 vectoring, but the extent of this is unknown. It has also deployed a small amount of GPON FTTH in greenfield markets, typically designed to support 80–100Mbps to each household. Also as part of Project VIP, it plans to reach 1 million businesses with symmetric 1Gbps FTTH.

However, the GigaPower offering in Austin will be AT&T’s first 300Mbps or 1Gbps mass-market FTTH offering targeting consumers, not just businesses, in a major market. It is also a symmetric offering, meaning upstream will be 1Gbps as well. Those speeds are far higher than what Project VIP will deliver to the majority of consumers. The jump from 45/6Mbps to 1/1Gbps for consumers raises questions around its strategy. The cost issue looms large. Deploying 1Gbps point-to-point FTTH will continue to cost much more than GPON FTTH, which in turn still costs a lot more than FTTN – even with vectoring. AT&T needs to explain better what has changed from last year in the business case for FTTH over FTTN.

Wall Street is asking questions because AT&T has repeatedly denied its fiber project in Austin has anything to do with Google’s intention to offer a similar fiber network in Austin next year and everything to to do with its general broadband strategy. There is increasing skepticism about AT&T’s veracity on that point, particularly after AT&T announced pricing that was suspiciously similar to what Google charges its fiber customers in Kansas City and is likely to charge in Austin. Ovum’s researchers also took special note of AT&T’s intention to “examine its customers’ browsing habits in order to generate incremental revenues with targeted ads and commercial offers.”

There is evidence Google is proving a growing market disruptor, turning cable and telco industry pricing models upside down where the search engine giant threatens to compete. Industry plans to charge premium prices for incrementally faster broadband speed tiers is at risk with Google’s gigabit offer, priced at just $70 a month. Comcast charges up to $300 a month for considerably less speed. Community owned fiber broadband providers are increasingly adopting Google’s pricing model themselves. EPB in Chattanooga reduced the price of its 1Gbps tier from $300 to $70 earlier this year.

“By accepting a ceiling of $70, AT&T may be making it harder to break even,” writes Ganguly. “We may see lower prices cascading down for all broadband services. AT&T runs the risk of de-valuing its own broadband business and ultimately that of others too. On a more positive note, demand for 1Gbps was seen as questionable when prices were unaffordable for consumers and when multiple HD streams can be supported by 40–50Mbps. With these price levels however, demand may spike and boost the business case for 1Gbps.”