Forbes magazine reports that Verizon Wireless shareholders can expect the company to enjoy fatter profits and reduced capital expenses from the upcoming deletion of grandfathered unlimited data from the company’s roster of data plans.

Trefis, a Wall Street analysis firm that uses MIT-developed modeling technology to predict future company performance, reports Verizon is on the verge of “monetizing every last byte of data that is transferred on its network.”

Verizon’s decision to end unlimited — announced by the company’s chief financial officer at a recent Wall Street conference, will compel customers upgrading to a 4G-capable phone to forfeit their unlimited plan in favor of tiered data.

With Verizon’s 4G network up and running in a large cross section of the country, the wireless carrier has an interest in moving customers to its more efficient LTE platform, which can sustain greater data traffic. With a de-emphasis on 3G, Verizon will be able to reduce capital investments required to maintain that older technology, yet enjoy the financial benefits monetized data usage will bring.

Verizon also plans to introduce shared family data plans, letting customers share a single usage allowance across multiple data devices. But Trefis warns Verizon it must avoid pricing that plan too low, because it could cannibalize the average fees collected from each subscriber (ARPU) who would otherwise have to pay Verizon for a data plan for every device. Instead, Trefis recommends Verizon price family share data plans in a way that keeps ARPU levels stable, which means consumers would not see much savings from the plans.

More importantly, shared data plans will set the stage for explosive wireless data revenue growth in the future, as customers get used to paying connectivity charges for every wireless device, appliance, automobile, and other future technology that supports so-called “machine-to-machine data exchanges” that could become commonplace in the next few years.

“Done right, Verizon could see higher ARPU levels in the coming years as subscribers increasingly use data intensive applications on its speedier 4G network and the carrier is able to monetize every byte of data that the subscribers use with its tiered data buckets,” Trefis recommends.

Verizon encourages customers to pig out on wireless-delivered streaming video.

Despite claims of a looming data usage crisis created by insufficient wireless spectrum, Verizon Wireless is introducing a new app that will encourage customers to find and watch streaming video on their mobile devices.

Viewdini premiers today on the Android platform, and Verizon hopes customers will use it to hunt down their favorite videos from Netflix, Hulu Plus, mSpot, and Comcast Xfinity, all from the Verizon Wireless app.

“We are just seeing a hunger for people wanting to watch video,” Verizon Wireless CEO Dan Mead said in an interview with AllThingsD. “I think this will capture the audience’s imagination.”

If customers use it to stream bandwidth heavy video on a tiered data plan, Verizon will also have the customer’s attention when the bill arrives.

Viewdini, considered one of Verizon’s “key product launches” for the year, does not amount to much on examination. The service does not host videos, it merely indexes them from other videocentric websites. The app will be exclusive to Verizon Wireless, but is not the company’s first foray in the competitive video streaming marketplace.

The Verizon Video app offers streamed video entertainment, but with a twist. Many titles offered by Verizon Video cannot be accessed while on Wi-Fi and require the company’s 3G or 4G network to watch, which counts against your usage allowance.

Mead

There is no indication yet whether Viewdini will have similar restrictions.

While Mead claims the company has several early warning indicators for customers approaching their monthly usage cap, he admits the company hopes to make additional revenue from customers who choose to exceed their allowance and buy additional data.

“We look at it as great flexibility for customers,” Mead called that choice.

While Verizon joins other wireless carriers in calling urgently for additional wireless spectrum, its marketing department does not recognize any wireless data shortage, and continues to introduce new products that encourage their customers to use an increasing amount of data, from which Verizon admits it will earn an increasing percentage of its revenue.

What capacity crisis? This is about the money.

Yesterday’s news that Verizon Wireless plans to terminate the grandfathered unlimited data plans of their existing customers, forcing them to choose from a range of potentially more expensive shared data plans, would seem to be part and parcel of the cell phone industry’s need to move away from all-you-can-eat data to preserve what little spectrum they have to handle wireless data growth.

AT&T’s Randall Stephenson is on record stating AT&T has been hiking prices because of the imminent spectrum crisis and its inability to manage it with a buyout of T-Mobile:

“We’re running out of the airwaves that this traffic rides on,” Stephenson said. “There is a shortage of this spectrum. The more competitors you have, the less efficient the allocation of spectrum will be. It’s got to change. I don’t think the market’s going to accommodate the number of competitors there are in the landscape.” Stephenson noted AT&T’s data prices have increased 30% since the deal was killed.

“In a capacity-constrained environment we will manage usage-based data plans, increased pricing and managing the speeds of the highest volume users. These are all logical and necessary steps to manage utilization,” Stephenson said about AT&T’s rationing plans.

Over at Verizon Wireless, the announced end of unlimited data carried no such warnings of imminent wireless spectrum doom.  In fact, chief financial officer Fran Shammo on Wednesday said Verizon was just fine with spectrum and capacity for at least the next two years, if not longer (underlining ours):

“Well, I think prior to the deal that we announced with the cable companies and the acquisition of spectrum, we were saying that we were going to need a spectrum — we were going to need more spectrum by 2015. With the approval of this deal now, with the AWS, we think we are in very good shape here beyond 2015.

“In addition, the way our 3G spectrum is in individual slices, it is going to be very efficient for us to take slices out and re-appropriate that to the 4G technology. So I think that through that spectrum efficiency, also I think that there will be some help from the manufacturers in getting more equipment out there that utilizes spectrum more efficiently, although I don’t think that solves the problem, the industry is going to need more spectrum in the future because of the way that we see the guide path of consumption. But I think right now, we are in pretty good shape for at least the next several years.

[…] “So from a spectrum perspective, I think we are absolutely fine.”

Verizon's banking on more revenue when "unlimited data" is banished for good.

In fact, Verizon Wireless plans to reduce its spending on infrastructure projects designed to expand and enhance its wireless network, starting with its 3G service. Frammo (underlining ours):

“And now what you’re seeing is, if you will, a discontinued investment in 3G. Now we will have to continue to invest in that 3G from a maintenance and reliability perspective because we still have 90 million customers on that, but no more capacity or expansion of the 3G network. Our effort is going into 4G now and what I would say to you is look at Verizon on a total capital basis and I would say flat to slightly down. If you look at the components, what you will see is wireless decreased $850 million in the first quarter and that was because of the 3G buildout last year and not this year. But I think on a year-over-year basis, you could look to flat to down and that trend should continue.”

So what are Verizon’s primary goals in the near future? Increasing revenue. Frammo (underlining ours):

“So obviously, our goal is to increase cash flow. We came out of the first quarter with a $1.7 billion increase in our cash flow year-over-year, managing that CapEx. Our dividend policy is extremely important to us.“

Verizon Wireless handed out this statement this morning regarding the imminent demise of unlimited data:

“As we have stated publicly, Verizon Wireless has been re-evaluating its data pricing structure for some time, Customers have told us that they want to share data, similar to how they share minutes today. We are working on plans to provide customers with that option later this year.

“We will share specific details of the plans and any related policy changes well in advance of their introduction, so customers will have time to evaluate their choices and make the best decisions for their wireless service. It is our goal and commitment to continue to provide customers with the same high value service they have come to expect from Verizon Wireless.”

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WWLP Springfield Verizon Wireless Eliminating Unlimited Data 5-16-12.mp4[/flv]

WWLP in Springfield, Mass. explains to viewers the end of “unlimited data” from Verizon Wireless is near.  (1 minute)

Verizon Wireless will force customers off of their grandfathered unlimited data plans when they reach the end of their current two-year service contracts, according to the company’s chief financial officer.

It is all part of the cell phone company’s strategy to boost the average bills of customers with new, more expensive tiered family-shared data plans. With a significant number of current customers grandfathered on unlimited data plans that users likely will not forfeit voluntarily, Verizon will force the issue as customers come up for contract renewal.

The plan received considerable approval at today’s JPMorgan Chase TMT conference, a gathering for Wall Street investors and tech companies like Verizon.  Executive vice-president and chief financial officer Fran Shammo laid out the plan to switch customers to forthcoming family “data share” plans that are priced based on anticipated usage:

As you come through an upgrade cycle and you upgrade in the future, you will have to go onto the data share plan. And moving away from, if you will, the unlimited world and moving everybody into a tiered structure data share-type plan.

So when you think about our 3G base, a lot of our 3G base is unlimited. As they start to migrate into 4G, they will have to come off of unlimited and go into the data share plan. And that is beneficial for us for many reasons, obviously. So as you pick what tier you want to be and we think that there will be some price up in those tiers.

“Price up” is code language for bill hiking. Customers adopting family share plans may be able to share data across a larger number of devices, but at consumption pricing, many customers will find their Verizon bills substantially higher than before.

Shammo

“And the important part of that is we want the connections to come in and the way we have designed our plan, this plan is built on tiers and as we look at the future growth of LTE consumption because of the speeds and video consumption and consumption of other M2M-type devices, it is going to be more important that people will start to upgrade in their tiers as they start to really realize the benefits of the LTE network,” Shammo said. “As [customers] add more devices, they are going to have to buy up into tiers. So again, you will see the revenue increase there.”

Those revenue predictions were not sufficient to satiate Phil Cusick, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase. He questioned Shammo about the prospects for Verizon further increasing revenue with across-the-board rate increases on service plans.

Shammo would not commit to that, but was pleased with the lack of customer protests over their recent introduction of a $30 equipment upgrade fee. He called the new fee “the right thing to do.” More fees and surcharges are likely, according to Shammo.

“I think implementing these additional fees is probably where we are at,” he said. “With the construct that we have dealt with around data share and where we see consumption of LTE going, when you put the combination of them together, we are fairly confident that we will see people start to uptake in the tiers, which is really where we will get the revenue accretion in the future.”

Shammo also said Verizon’s fiber to the home network FiOS has gotten such rave reviews, it almost sells itself. That means the company will pull back on promotional offers and plans a general rate increase for all customers in the coming months, if only to bolster company profits.

“We have to do a better job in discipline of price increases and I think that you’ll see us do some price increases here over the next two quarters to offset the content increase and that will also contribute more profitability to the bottom line,” Shammo said. “You are going to have to concentrate more on reducing the amount of promotions, reducing the amount of retention that you put on the table to retain a customer and then also you are seeing that the industry is pricing up.”

Verizon FiOS customers will find rate increases applying both to equipment rental and service pricing nationwide, according to Shammo.

“We were actually below-market compared to our competitors on the amount of fee that we charge on the rental of a set-top box or a digital converter box,” Shammo explained. “We are switching around our bundles and the customers that are coming out of the current bundles will be priced up to the newer bundles. So you are going to see really a shift over the next two to three quarters in price-ups coming out of FiOS.”

As far as FiOS expansion goes, the company does not expect any major expansion in the service for the next several years.

“If we can penetrate the market and really turn the wireline profitability, could we potentially build out to other areas? Yes, but that is a decision that will be made in years out, not right now,” Shammo said. “So from a capital perspective, we are being very disciplined with where we are going to put that capital.”

Phillip "An Ex-Frontier Customer" Dampier

The other week while sitting in the dentist’s office waiting for my wallet to be drilled, I overheard a conversation at the reception desk over the latest effort by Frontier Communications to shoot itself in the proverbial foot.

“I decided to get rid of my phone line the other day and when I called Frontier to disconnect, I was told I would owe them more than $150 in disconnection fees for a contract I never knew I had with them,” opened the conversation.

“That happened to my sister as well, and she couldn’t believe it because nobody ever told her she was on a contract,” came the reply.

“I never knew I was either, and I told the representative they needed to show me where I signed up for anything like that or else I’m not paying it,” insisted the latest victim of Frontier’s phantom service contracts.

Within a minute or two, all had decided they were done doing business with the phone company that got its start more than 100 years ago as the well-regarded Rochester Telephone Corporation.  In 2012, there was no turning back after $150 “disconnect” penalties and other insults.  They were intent on being rid of Frontier once and for all.

With customer unfriendly policies like that, it comes as no surprise Frontier has been losing customers in the Rochester market for years, mostly to cell phone providers or Time Warner Cable — the latter which delivers more value and far superior broadband speed in western New York communities not served by Verizon FiOS.

Surprise... you're on a contract with a $150 cancellation penalty.

Twenty years ago, Rochester Telephone delivered excellent value, charging about half what then-NYNEX customers in Buffalo and Syracuse paid for telephone service. But as Frontier has increasingly disengaged from being an aggressive contender for telecommunications services in Rochester, people in this region of one million noticed, especially when Verizon’s fiber to the home service arrived in Buffalo, Syracuse, Albany, and beyond.

What did Frontier offer? Not much. Frontier’s local general manager Ann Burr, who used to be in charge at Time Warner Cable locally, told local media Rochester didn’t need faster broadband speeds. That’s a fitting argument for a company that doesn’t deliver them and believes 3Mbps broadband is plenty fast enough.  If you don’t like it, feel free to leave, so long as you aren’t trapped with that long-term service contract you never knew you had. (The New York Attorney General’s office has already spanked Frontier once for the practice, forcing them to issue refunds, and judging from last week’s conversation, it appears the problem has not abated.)

The fact is, Frontier offers little compelling to the landline customers they have left.

Rochester’s experience with Frontier seems apropos when contemplating the phone company’s latest quarterly results, which one analyst called “ugly.” Having listened to at least a dozen of Frontier’s quarterly conference calls with investors over the past three years, there seems to be no shortage of promises of better days to come.  Frontier is among the few companies I have heard call customer losses of 5-11% every quarter “an improvement.”

As one investor put it, the management at Frontier should win an Academy Award for feigned optimism.

This week, the company announced first-quarter earnings fell 51% thanks to lower revenue earned from the dwindling number of residential and business customers. But better days are ahead, really.

Road to nowhere?

Frontier has spent the last year treating their “system conversion” for ex-Verizon territories as the telecom equivalent of the Holy Grail.  Once achieved, the company can do anything. The reorganization underway internally at the company is supposed to improve its lackluster customer service, generate more marketing opportunities, save the company money, and open the door to a new chapter of a unified Frontier family, with ex-Verizon and always-Frontier employees coming together to do things “the Frontier way.”

How much longer investors will stick around waiting for the promised land remains an open question. The stock has already achieved a 52-week low, and if the company cuts its dividend — the primary point of attraction for investors — it will drop much lower.

Frontier’s management decisions have effectively left the company between a rock (Wall Street) and a hard place (its dwindling customers).  Much of the company’s success is predicated on rural broadband/landline service, where the company expects to face little competition.  But Verizon, the company that sold them much of their inherited network, has a little surprise for them.  After selling off the “junk” (a deteriorating copper landline network they no longer care much about), the company’s wireless division is coming back to town to poach Frontier’s customers.

Verizon’s grand plan is to pitch two products:

1. Home Phone Connect: Verizon’s landline replacement works with the customer’s home phones over Verizon Wireless’ network. Customers can share minutes on an existing Verizon Wireless plan for $9.99 a month or get unlimited calling for $19.99 a month. It comes with most popular calling features included.
2. Verizon HomeFusion Broadband: Verizon Wireless has excess capacity in rural areas, especially on 4G LTE-equipped towers, so why not put it to use? While commanding a premium at $60 a month for just 10GB of usage, customers who value speed over money may tolerate that diamond price.  If Verizon finds a way to relax that usage limit and lower prices, it could present a real competitive threat to phone companies delivering lower end DSL service.

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Home Phone Connect – Home Phone Transfer Verizon Wireless.flv[/flv]

Verizon Wireless introduces Home Phone Connect, a product designed to tell landline companies like Frontier to take a hike.  (2 minutes)

While Verizon isn’t likely to immediately grab major market share with either product, it foreshadows an intent to leverage their rural wireless network to remain a player, even in places where they have abandoned selling landline service.

How to Stop the Erosion

Turning things around? Frontier contemplates licensing U-verse from AT&T

Even in a barely-competitive marketplace, companies must invest to keep up. But that investment annoys Wall Street, which can depress the stock (and the all-important dividend). But improved service retains customers (and may even win a few ex-customers back). So news that Frontier was considering licensing U-verse technology to upgrade their major markets is a logical first step to stop the bleeding. Frontier is irrelevant delivering broadband at speeds of 3Mbps at out the door prices that meet or exceed what the much-faster cable competition charges. U-verse would allow Frontier to deliver faster broadband (up to 24Mbps is plenty fast for a lot of consumers), build its own IPTV offering instead of relying on satellite dish reseller agreements, and maintain landline customers, assuming the company prices its bundle correctly.

While we are big proponents of fiber-to-the-home service, it is clear Frontier will never spend the money to deliver it, even to their largest service areas. They will prefer the cheaper route of fiber to the neighborhood, relying on existing copper infrastructure to connect individual homes to the service. It represents a reasonable first step.

Frontier also must continue aggressive investments in their broadband network in more rural areas. Some of the company’s regional backbones remain woefully congested, and the company just doesn’t deliver the speeds it markets on its website in too many areas.

High speed should really mean "high speed"

Jameson, a Stop the Cap! reader, is a good example. He signed up for “Frontier Max DSL” which claims it can deliver up to 6Mbps in his part of east-central Indiana.  He ended up with 1.6Mbps instead, in part of because Frontier’s records were inaccurate.

I called Frontier tech support after reading some stuff on Stop the Cap! and another site, learning that since I live under 5000 feet from the DSL termination point (the Frontier building down the road) that I shouldn’t have any problems getting their highest speeds. I got lucky and got a customer support agent who understood my problem, and a tech support guy who genuinely seemed concerned about my issue. The tech guy checked Frontier’s records and I was labeled as being 30,000 feet from the building, but I’m really only around 4200 feet away, and my speeds were provisioned at 1.6mbps down and around 450kbps up. He put in a support ticket to have my speeds automatically raised up to the max I’m paying for.

Jameson ended up with around 7Mbps — a little better than the advertised speed, but only because he thought to ask and reached the right people at Frontier to follow through.

Some of our readers in West Virginia are not so lucky, having the mediocre speeds they fought to receive reduced further when a technician suddenly remotely adjusts speed provisioning on customer equipment to reduce their maximum broadband speed.

Frontier’s DSL problems don’t just exist in rural areas. We experienced it first-hand in 2009 when the company advertised up to 10Mbps speeds in Rochester, and delivered 3.1Mbps to us instead.

Consumer Reports documents this is not an isolated problem, with only two-thirds of Frontier customers getting the broadband speeds they pay to receive. If and when a competitor does better, Frontier loses another customer.

Finally, Frontier must improve its customer service. The company is notorious for giving inconsistent answers to customer questions, doesn’t always follow through on commitments, and maintains far too many “gotcha” terms and conditions on contracts that leave customers exposed to unjustified early termination fees.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNET Verizon HomeFusion Broadband May 2012.flv[/flv]

CNET shows off the equipment used with Verizon’s new HomeFusion wireless broadband service.  (2 minutes)