For the third time this year, Time Warner Cable is increasing prices on some of its cable products in upstate New York.

Some customers in western New York are receiving notification that effective this October, the price for the cable company’s digital video recorder (DVR) box is increasing by 18 percent from $10.95 to $12.95 per month (remote control included). Time Warner Cable charges different prices for DVR service, depending on what each local market will tolerate and how much competition the company receives.  A representative of Time Warner Cable in Buffalo told us the company was trying to “standardize rates” across Upstate New York.  If true, residents in Buffalo who already experienced one recent rate increase for DVR service will get a big shock if rates are “standardized” in the same direction Rochester and Syracuse are experiencing.  More details below.

After multiple contacts, we’ve managed to sort out what we believe the increases to be.

Buffalo:  Verizon FiOS and the Buffalo economy have conspired to keep prices considerably lower in Buffalo than other upstate cities.  Buffalo residents pay just $9.95 a month for DVR service and will experience no increase in rates… for now.  If the Buffalo representative was correct about rate standardization, residents there will eventually see a $3 a month rate hike for DVR service.

Rochester: Effective October 15th, DVR service will increase $2 a month from $10.95 to $12.95, an 18 percent increase [Update 9/20 — Many areas are being notified on their bill it is $1, not $2 — see update below.]  Each additional DVR box will cost $11.95.  Originally, we were told the increase was a dollar a month.  Not so fast, says our reader Tim who tipped us off to the story.  He lives in a Rochester suburb and his September bill contained a notification the rate was increasing two dollars a month.  The bill was correct and the original representative we spoke with was wrong.

Syracuse: Residents of the Salt City are in the same boat as residents in Rochester.  On October 15th, DVR service there also increases by two dollars a month, from $10.95 to $12.95.  Apparently Verizon FiOS has not made as much of a competitive difference in Syracuse, probably because it is not widely available yet.

Ironically, if you register for TWC's MyServices control panel and shop the cable company's services online, you can grab a DVR box free for 12 months.

In February, Time Warner broadly increased rates on its cable and broadband services.  In September, rates for broadband-only customers also increased.  The latest increase will not affect customers on promotions or bundled packages that include a DVR.

Our reader Tim says he’s not going to stand for it.

“Time to trim another item off of my TWC bill,” he writes. “I already quit HBO, I guess the DVR is next.”

The Time Warner Cable representative we spoke with only learned about the rate increase “an hour ago.”  She told us, “We’re probably going to get some calls on this.”

Ironically, Time Warner Cable is giving away a year of free DVR service to customers in the northeast using its recently introduced “My Services” control panel and online shopping section.

Our advice to those who don’t want to pay the increase:

• Complain to Time Warner and ask for a credit for the difference in price for a year.
• Turn in your DVR box, wait a week and then take advantage of their “online only” offer, if available in your area, for a year’s free service. (Registration for MyServices required.)
• Cancel something else in your package that will make up the difference.  Are you still watching HBO or Showtime?  Many TWC systems charge $13.95 for HBO and $10.95 for Cinemax and other pay channels.  That’s up to $167 a year per premium network!  Many HD subscribers might still be paying for a Digital HD Tier that used to include HDNet and HDNet Movies.  Now you’re paying an extra $4.95 a month for MGM HD, Universal HD, Smithsonian, and the cattle auctions on RFD-TV.  Not watching those?  Drop that tier and save $60 a year.  If you still want commercial free movies, consider Encore’s Movie Pack instead of HBO, et al.  Encore only charges $5 a month for seven theme-based movie channels.

Believe the bill -- for residents in the city of Rochester and adjacent suburbs, the rate increase turns out to be $1 for DVR service, despite repeated assertions from TWC reps back on the 9th).

[Updated 3:30pm ET — We have been on the phone with Time Warner Cable reps in Buffalo, Rochester, and Syracuse a total of eight times to re-verify some of the information for this story after the first representative we spoke with gave us conflicting information.  Subsequent contacts also gave us a range of responses from “I’ve worked here four years and am telling you there is no price increase” to “Unfortunately we are increasing the price and I don’t know why.”  We’ve updated and corrected the details below.]

[Update #2: 9:15am ET 9/20 — I pulled up a copy of my October statement and discovered a dollar increase in the town of Brighton for DVR service, which triggered another call to TWC this morning to learn why the information I was given on the 9th was different from what the bill showed.

The latest explanation is that different areas are subject to paying different amounts.  Apparently.

For folks in the city of Rochester and adjacent suburbs, “less is more,” so the dollar increase is slightly better than the two dollar increase.  I just wish representatives were better trained to answer simple questions accurately.]

A British financial analyst has issued a new report telling phone companies they should forget about fiber optic upgrades — copper-based DSL service is adequate for consumers and doesn’t bring shareholders fits over capital expenditures.

Analysys Mason’s Rupert Wood believes companies are at risk of overspending on fiber networks that deliver speeds he claims few consumers want.

“The vague promise of future services may appeal to some early FTTH adopters, but will become increasingly ineffective as a selling point unless the rate of innovation in devices and services that are uniquely suitable for FTTH gets some new impetus from vendors and service providers,” writes Wood. “The future cannot be simply plotted against increasing fixed-line bandwidth.”

Wood believes wireless 3G and 4G broadband is where innovation and demand is greatest.  It also just happens to be where the biggest money can be made.  Providers can charge premium prices for wireless services while limiting access.

Wood

For at-home Internet, Wood believes copper-based DSL is fine for most consumers.  Wood points to American providers offering super-high-speed broadband tiers that attracts few buyers as proof there is little interest in ultra-fast connections.  DSL is cheap to provide, he argues.  Fiber is just ‘too risky’ and Wood suggests it’s not as “future-proof” as wireless.

So what should providers do with their fiber networks?  Short of abandoning them altogether, Wood recommends operators pull back on fiber roll-outs and deploy them only for experimental purposes.

“Conditions vary between markets, but in general the business case to move much beyond trials just isn’t there and we are already beginning to see some scale-back,” explains Wood.

“Bandwidth demand for fixed broadband is converging with the bandwidth required to stream TV, and its rate of growth will slow down,” he adds. “DSL [technology] might not be able to meet these demands at some point in the future, but we believe that this point is still a long way off.”

If you want to read more, it will cost you €5500 to purchase a copy of “FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015.”

Our analysis comes for free.

Wood ignores the most important reason why Americans are not signing up for ultra-fast premium speed tiers in droves — the current “early adopter” price tag.  Few consumers are going to justify spending $99 a month or more for the highest speed connections.  When price cuts deliver faster service at incrementally higher pricing, perhaps $10-20 for each step up, there will be greater demand.  If America was not interested in higher speed networks, Google’s proposal to build a 1Gbps fiber to the home system would have passed by without notice.  Instead, more than 1,100 communities applied to be chosen for the project, including just about every American city.

Wood’s report primarily speaks to a European market, where the majority of broadband connections come through telephone company DSL or wireless.  In the United States, the cable industry heavily competes with phone companies for broadband customers.  That is much rarer in Europe.  Wood’s claim that consumers care little about speed is belied by marketing campaigns that put cable broadband’s speed advantage front and center, and they have the market share to justify it.

In North America, although Wood’s report may be music to phone companies’ ears, refusing to upgrade copper phone networks comes at their peril.  Americans and Canadians are disconnecting their landlines at an increasing rate, abandoning those that abandoned innovation long ago. Cable operators report many of their new broadband customers come from those disconnecting slower speed DSL service from copper-loving phone companies.

The future is clear — sticking with standard DSL over copper phone lines in competitive markets is a losing proposition unless phone companies begin slashing prices to become a value leader for those who want more savings than speed.

Verizon determined the best way to “future proof” its network was to deploy fiber straight to the home in many areas.  Verizon’s vision carries a price tag analysts like Wood and those on Wall Street don’t like because it challenges short term profits.  But with Americans increasingly saying goodbye to their landline providers, not upgrading networks to give customers a reason to stay is penny wise and pound foolish.

Frontier's Maggie Wilderotter escapes reality

Frontier Communications CEO Maggie Wilderotter has bought a first class ticket to Fiber Fantasy Island, where phone companies dream of delivering fiber-optic broadband service without actually deploying fiber.  They just tell you they did.

In an interview published today in The Oregonian, Wilderotter tries to convince residents Frontier’s arrival is good news, making promises about broadband and service improvements based on a company track record an independent observer would conclude she simply made up.

If Wilderotter’s command of the facts about her own company are reflective of “a distinct, improved image in its new territories,” Oregon is in big trouble.

Let’s review:

CLAIM: “We deploy fiber to the home all across the country. We don’t call it FiOS. We call it high-speed Internet. For our customers, the technology doesn’t matter. What matters is access, speed and capacity.”

REALITY CHECK: Frontier, as far as we have been able to determine, has not deployed fiber to the home anywhere in the country, with the exception of the FiOS network it acquired from Verizon.  Frontier Communications’ deployment of fiber optics to the home is comparable to the amount of fiber found in a box of Cookie Crisp cereal.  In their largest market, Rochester, N.Y., Frontier relies on the same legacy copper wire phone network it utilizes everywhere else.  It is highly misleading for Wilderotter to represent otherwise.  Fiber to the home means exactly that — fiber optic cable brought right to the home.  This is not a case of “you call it corn, we call it maize.”

This kitten is not an iguana.

Fiber optic cable is not also known as “high-speed Internet,” just as the cute kitten on the left is not called an iguana.  For the significant number of customers who ask Frontier to disconnect their service year-after-year, technology matters very much, and this particular phone company lacks it.  Frontier relies on the same DSL technology other phone companies and customers increasingly consider yesterday’s news.

In many Frontier service areas, there is no access to broadband because line quality will not support the service.  In Brighton, N.Y., a suburb of Rochester less than a minute from the Rochester city line, Frontier could only manage to deliver 3.1Mbps DSL speeds, and until recently Frontier was crying it needed a 5GB usage allowance because of the threat higher amounts of consumption might have on its network capacity.  Access, speed, and capacity does matter, which is why Time Warner Cable is picking up the bulk of its new broadband subscribers at Frontier’s expense.

CLAIM: “For high-speed, it means having speed and capacity in addition to reach. We’ll do add-on services. We have a terrific Yahoo-Frontier portal that will be a gateway on our high-speed Internet service. We are in the throes of putting together Wi-Fi hotspots that will be distributed throughout this market for customers.  If you’re a high-speed Internet customer of ours it’s free. We’re looking to put one at Hillsboro Stadium. Typically, we put them in hotels, convention centers, truck stops, trailer parks, outside parks, campuses for colleges, shopping centers, business campuses.”

REALITY CHECK:  Those “add-on services,” such as Frontier’s Peace of Mind, come with a price tag and are often required components of a bundled service discount offer.  As first impressions go, a company still relying on Yahoo! for a front end is not exactly on the cutting edge, nor are “portals.”  It’s like trying to impress new customers with free web space through GeoCities.  Actually, that is something Frontier could offer because GeoCities is now owned by Yahoo!

Frontier’s Peace of Mind Services

• Hard Drive Backup: $4.99 per month
• Hard Drive Backup + Unlimited Technical Support: $9.99 per month
• Hard Drive Backup + Unlimited Technical Support + Inside Wire Maintenance: $12.99 per month
• $50 early cancellation penalty if you get these services with a term commitment

Rochester’s experience with Frontier Wi-Fi has not been very impressive.  Most residents don’t even know the service exists.  The city and several suburbs offer limited Frontier pay-walled Wi-Fi service and a handful of free access hotspots in cooperation with Monroe County.  Unfortunately, many of the fee-based and free hotspots have fallen into disrepair and no longer function.  Signal strength is not impressive either, and many were not usable indoors.  We tested several of the free hotspots and discovered one only delivered a signal into a suburban parking lot, another only into an empty soccer field, and the third was not functioning at all.  Frontier’s record in Wi-Fi delivered more promises than actual service.

Those Wi-Fi services, by the way, are not free for all Frontier broadband customers.  Evidently Ms. Wilderotter is not acquainted with her own company’s products and services, nor Frontier’s own website:

So much for Wilderotter's claim Frontier's Wi-Fi network was free for all Frontier broadband customers.

CLAIM: “We deliver the highest value for the price you pay. We also have excellent customer service. We also don’t raise our rates every 12 months, no matter what.”

REALITY CHECK:  In Rochester, the out-the-door price Frontier charges its broadband customers is actually higher than that charged by Time Warner Cable, which delivers far faster connections.  In West Virginia, the state’s Consumer Advocate put together a chart depicting Frontier’s broadband prices.  Determine for yourself if it delivers the “highest value for the price you pay.”

Comparing Prices: Frontier's pricing doesn't look as exciting as Wilderotter would have you believe, as the West Virginia Consumer Advocate discovered

CLAIM: “If I look across the board at our basic service pricing, I don’t think we’ve raised prices anywhere in the last four or five years.”

REALITY CHECK: We looked and found Frontier demanding the right to increase basic service rates in New York by $2 a month each year for up to two years.  In fact, last November, the New York State Public Service Commission, at the request of Frontier, sent the company a letter authorizing a rate hike of $2 a month for customers in the state.  Even more enlightening was Frontier’s filing in August 2005 with the PSC demanding near-complete deregulation and rate relief allowing Frontier to raise rates up to $1 per month annually indefinitely for basic service.  Frontier also wanted consumer protection rules “relaxed” and ban the PSC from investigating consumer complaints.  One of the reasons they cited is that basic phone service is not the same critical service it used to be because people can communicate through blogs instead.

In fact, consumers should be asking why Frontier’s rates haven’t decreased.  From that same filing: “Frontier believes that with the decreasing costs and increasing bandwidths of new technologies and the acceleration of intermodal market entry, the market will cause rates for non-basic services in all parts of the State to decline.”

CLAIM: Local regulators tell me they did see a spike in billing complaints after Verizon took over. Any thoughts on why? — “Whenever there’s a change — you change the name on the bill, you change the format — customers tend to look at it more closely. We always expect a spike in billing calls whenever we’ve done acquisitions. It has already (settled out).”

REALITY CHECK: As Stop the Cap! has reported, Frontier’s takeover in West Virginia has hardly “settled out.”  Service interruptions, forgotten service calls, and other problems have plagued the state to the point the PSC needed new hearings to review the situation.  Many of Frontier’s billing complaints come from customers choosing to cancel Frontier service, only to find unjustified early termination fees added to their final bills, even when customers never agreed to a term contract.  That problem was so serious in New York, the state Attorney General fined the company and ordered customer refunds.  Changing a customer’s bill by adding $100 or more to the total amount due will always get a customer to look at the bill more closely.

CLAIM: “One of the big opportunities that we’re working on is the ability to display Internet content and video on the television set.”

REALITY CHECK: That “big opportunity” has been available to broadband users for several years now.

CLAIM: We also have a new site that’s called myfitv.com. We carry over 100,000 titles of free television content on this site. It’s a little bit like Hulu on steroids. It’s provided free of charge to all our customers.

REALITY CHECK: MyFitv is not “a little bit like Hulu on steroids.”  In fact, it is Hulu.  Frontier simply used Hulu’s “embed” feature to take content, slap the Frontier logo on it, and add Google ads in an attempt to rake in a few extra dollars.  You can do exactly the same thing yourself.  Meanwhile, the service is added to customer bills showing an amount of $0.00, a very inexpensive way to try and impress customers with content Frontier never developed, deployed, or created — just like their phantom fiber to the home network.

CLAIM: “We think over time the Internet will also provide different packaging, different prices, different ways to buy content than the traditional viewing platform. We also think that mobility is important. We want to make sure that whatever you do you’ll be able to take it with you.  The Sling technology is interesting, too. It’s something we’re talking about DISH Network with.”

REALITY CHECK: Every time Maggie has talked about “different packaging and prices,” it has been in the context of an Internet Overcharging scheme — limited usage allowances, extremely high rate increases for those deemed to have consumed too much, etc.  And yes, Sling technology is interesting.  A company conceived of the idea, built it, developed a marketing plan, and sold it.  That’s a concept Frontier needs to understand.  You cannot transform a legacy network with words alone.  Here’s an idea.  How about conceiving of a real fiber-to-the-home network, build one, develop a marketing plan, and then sell it.  For those in markets like Rochester, it’s the only way Frontier Communications will avoid becoming the horse and buggy carriage maker of the 21st century.

CLAIM: You’re around Seattle, around Portland, but not in them yet. Is there any possibility that Frontier would build into another company’s market? — “There’s always a possibility. It’s not a priority for us. And the reason why it’s not a priority is we’ve got a lot to do, just in the service areas that we own today. When I’m humming on all cylinders there, and I’ve been able to do everything I possibly can in those areas, then I might look to extend service areas out.”

REALITY CHECK: Translation — “when pigs fly.”  Frontier would be laughed out of the Seattle and Portland markets.

Ms. Wilderotter needs to be a lot more open and forthcoming with the press.  Frontier’s business plan makes it clear the company’s future is serving uncompetitive rural markets that will be forced to tolerate the products and pricing Frontier delivers.  Where competition exists, let’s face facts.  Frontier is not gaining market share — it is losing it, eroded away year after year by uncompetitive, substandard products at high prices.

That’s a reality you are bound to miss if you spend too much time with Mr. Rourke and Tattoo.

Advertisements for Road Runner Extreme, Time Warner Cable’s DOCSIS 3 “wideband” service, began running in Rochester, N.Y., this week despite the fact Time Warner Cable has no intention of providing the service in the area anytime soon.

The ad offers Road Runner subscribers the chance to obtain 30/5 Mbps service “for just $20 more per month” and invites viewers to “call now to order.”

So that’s what we did.

Time Warner Cable representatives in Buffalo confirmed the service is not available in Rochester, but figured if they were advertising it here it must be coming soon.  Even they were surprised with the answer they got ‘from upstairs’ when inquiring further.

“No, it’s not coming to Rochester anytime soon,” we were told.

We asked if there was any timetable to bring DOCSIS 3 upgrades to the area.  The response was both illuminating and candid:

“I wouldn’t hold your breath.  We’ve had some issues in the Rochester area and, for now, we feel comfortable offering the service only in the Buffalo area in western New York.”

When we asked why the company was now heavily advertising a product on Rochester TV screens that isn’t available here, we were told Time Warner Cable was increasingly consolidating its operations in western New York through its Buffalo office, which is where “most customer service” and “local advertising you see on cable channels” is now originating.  Since Road Runner Extreme is available in Buffalo, Rochester viewers are accidental witnesses to a service intended for residents of The City of Good Neighbors.

So what are “the issues” in the Rochester area?

Time Warner Cable bypassed Rochester for promised upgrades after the defeat of their proposed Internet Overcharging plan, which would have tripled broadband prices for an equivalent level of service.  Consumer outrage and political headaches combined to kill the experiment.

Meanwhile, Time Warner Cable isn’t compelled to hurry DOCSIS 3 into an area underserved by Frontier Communication’s slow speed DSL service.  Neighboring communities in Buffalo and Syracuse have access to Verizon’s fiber-to-the-home service FiOS, which has driven Time Warner to enhance services in both communities to avoid losing customers.

Despite the slow pace of upgrades, Time Warner Cable previously stated it intended to upgrade a significant number of its cable systems to DOCSIS 3 technology by the end of the year.  So it will eventually reach the area.  As Time Warner Cable recommends… just don’t hold your breath.

[flv width=”490″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Time Warner Cable at the NYS Fair.flv[/flv]

The closest residents of the Flower City will get to Road Runner Extreme is at the New York State Fair in Syracuse, at the Time Warner Cable booth.  (Their advertised ‘celebrity’ is Mike O’Malley.  Who???)  (1 minute)

Three years ago, Bush Administration FCC Chairman Kevin Martin championed an initiative to offer free national Internet access across the United States via wireless access.  Martin’s idea was to take a portion of unused spectrum and auction it to a company that agreed to set aside 25 percent of the 2 GHz “AWS-3” band for a free, slow speed Internet service.  The winning bidder could underwrite the free service with online advertising and sell access to the remaining 75 percent of the spectrum, presumably for faster access.  Think NetZero for the 21st century.

That proposal just happened to coincide with a nearly identical plan offered by M2Z Networks Inc., a politically-connected start-up backed by Kleiner Perkins Caufield & Byers partner John Doerr and loaded with former FCC people.

M2Z had everything the FCC wanted from an applicant:

• a minority owned business that would raise the percentage of minority-owned telecommunications businesses;
• a willingness to agree to Martin’s demands that the free Internet service be censored to remove adult content;
• sufficient financial backing to win the spectrum auction;
• political connections that could help drive the plan through a political minefield and objections from incumbent commercial providers.

John Muleta, co-founder and CEO of M2Z Networks, also headed the FCC's Wireless Telecom Bureau between 2003 and 2005.

M2Z planned to offer free Internet access below the definition of broadband speeds defined in America’s National Broadband Plan — 768kbps, and would also include web advertising injected by M2Z.  Premium, paying customers could access faster speeds and avoid the extra advertising.

Unfortunately for the project’s boosters, Martin’s maverick proposal met a roadblock of opposition, including from his boss, President George W. Bush.  Commercial providers, especially AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile immediately attacked the plan.  AT&T and Verizon did not want a competitor giving away free wireless access when they were charging top dollar for it.  T-Mobile objected, fearing interference to spectrum it owned nearby (fears that proved not credible).  Civil rights and consumer groups objected to Martin’s insistence that adult content be blocked using imperfect filtering software.  Still others thought M2Z would never be able to cover 95 percent of America within a decade, as required by Martin’s proposal.  Some speculated M2z would launch service, deploy it to major cities, and then petition the FCC to forget about the 95 percent requirement.

Philosophically, many industry groups also objected to the Commission sticking its nose in private company business plans, dictating the services offered by the winning bidder.

Despite some willingness by M2Z to compromise on issues like the “smut filter,” with the remaining parade of opposition it came as no surprise the FCC left M2Z’s proposal on the back burner for the remainder of the Bush Administration.

With the arrival of the Obama Administration, Kevin Martin was out at the FCC.  In came Julius Genachowski and a National Broadband Plan.

The concept on offer from M2Z just didn’t fit the vision of America’s broadband transformation.  Although wireless 3G and 4G networks remained hot topics, other wireless projects have simply not gotten as much attention outside of rural areas.  As many community-owned Wi-Fi services shut down, the concept of free, slow-speed broadband just wasn’t a hot topic any longer.  Even worse, approving a plan offering speeds well below the FCC’s proposed definition of broadband threatened to muddy the message America needs faster access.  Last week, the FCC quietly sent word to M2Z that they had rejected their proposal, effectively killing the venture.

How broadband advocates frame broadband expansion can be critical to the plan’s success.  Critics already opposed to broadband stimulus programs could argue M2Z offered a free market, privately-funded solution to Internet adoption without spending billions of taxpayer dollars.  Although 768kbps would offer little to solve the digital divide, totally free access isn’t something easily ignored, even if M2Z was never capable of extending service to 95 percent of the country.

But in the end, vociferous objections from AT&T, Verizon, and T-Mobile were probably the primary reason for the plan’s ultimate demise.

After all, if you could get free wireless access at speeds comparable to what several carriers realistically deliver to their 3G customers today for upwards of $60 a month, would you remain a paying customer?

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/C-SPAN M2Z Networks The Communicators 10-11-07.flv[/flv]

In October 2007, C-SPAN’s “The Communicators” spent 30 minutes discussing the state of competitiveness in American broadband and how M2Z planned to shake up the duopoly.  Three years later, the duopoly remains and M2Z’s plan is dead.  (29 minutes)