Phillip "The Mayans Never Met AT&T" Dampier

AT&T has used the specter of a nationwide wireless bandwidth crisis to pressure Washington to adopt its agenda for additional mobile spectrum.  But talk of a looming “data tsunami” has done nothing to stop AT&T from heavily marketing their most data-hungry devices — smartphones and tablets to customers.

In fact, the “broadband shortage business” has become enormously profitable for the former Ma Bell.

Switch to a Smartphone

Wireless carriers like AT&T aggressively market smartphones because they drive the highest average monthly revenue earned from customers.  So far, the marketing push has been an unparalleled success.  PricewaterhouseCoopers reported smartphones accounted for 48% of all wireless phone sales in 2011, up from 30% in 2010.  More than half of customers upgrading their old phones chose smartphones to replace them — an enormous increase over just 36% of upgrades in 2010.  Because smartphones are designed for an online experience, most companies mandate customers subscribe to a data plan, often adding $30 or more per phone, per month to a wireless phone bill.

AT&T’s 4th quarter results told the story, and it was all smiles.  AT&T celebrated customer enthusiasm for smartphones and the data they consume with no worries about “data tsunamis” or “bandwidth crises”:

• In 2011, AT&T’s growth engines — wireless, wireline data and managed services — represented 76 percent of total revenues and grew 7.5 percent versus 2010, led in the fourth quarter by:
  • 10.0 percent growth in wireless revenues
  • 19.4 percent growth in wireless data revenues, up $956 million versus the year-earlier quarter
• 9.4 million smartphone sales, best-ever quarter and 50 percent more than previous quarterly record and nearly double 3Q11 sales; 82 percent of postpaid sales were smartphones
• Best-ever quarter for Android and Apple smartphones, including 7.6 million iPhone activations

Double-Digit Growth for Wireless Revenues. Total wireless revenues, which include equipment sales, were up 10.0 percent year over year to $16.7 billion. Wireless service revenues increased 4.0 percent, to $14.3 billion, in the fourth quarter.

Wireless Data Revenues Increase 19.4 Percent. Wireless data revenues — driven by Internet access, access to applications, messaging and related services — increased by $956 million, or 19.4 percent, from the year-earlier quarter to $5.9 billion. AT&T’s postpaid wireless subscribers on monthly data plans increased by 16.4 percent over the past year. The number of subscribers on tiered data plans also continues to increase. About 22 million, or 56 percent, of all smartphone subscribers are on tiered data plans, and about 70 percent have chosen the higher-tier plans.

Wireless Margins Reflect Record Sales. Fourth-quarter wireless margins reflect record-setting smartphone sales and customer upgrade levels. This was offset in part by improved operating efficiencies and further revenue gains from the company’s growing base of high-quality smartphone subscribers.

Forcing Customers to Upgrade… Or Else

AT&T's 2G Exit Strategy Started in 2009 (Courtesy: Blackberry News)

Back in 2009, AT&T decided it was inventory clearance time, released a memo entitled “2G Exit Strategy,” and slashed prices on 2G “feature” or “messaging phones” to attract customers looking for a bargain.  A few years later, the company is now sending letters to some of them strongly recommending they upgrade to a new, potentially more expensive phone.  If they don’t, AT&T writes, “your current, older-model 2G phone might not be able to make or receive calls and you may experience degradation of your wireless service in certain areas.”

AT&T hopes many customers will adopt smartphones, because the plans that accompany them are far more expensive than the 2G “messaging” plans they replace. AT&T wants to repurpose 1900MHz 2G spectrum for other services, but sometimes customers are left holding the bag if they don’t want the designated replacement phone(s) AT&T is willing to provide.

In Grand Valley, Col. last fall, AT&T created lines outside its stores as customers were compelled to upgrade phones and service plans to continue reliable AT&T service:

AT&T isn’t actually discontinuing the 2G network — it is moving 2G service to less-favorable spectrum it owns in order to make room for improved 3G coverage.  That might work fine in areas less expansive and rugged than western Colorado, but in the Grand Valley, it means many customers will find they no longer have data service at all.

The ongoing tower upgrades have also disrupted cell service generally, and when customers arrive at AT&T’s stores to complain, the employees on hand attempt to upsell them more expensive phones to “fix” the problem.

“There is significant pressure on carriers to migrate to the most efficient networks while needing to address the issue of spectrum scarcity,” explains PricewaterhouseCoopers’ Dan Hays. “We are beginning to see carriers shut off legacy networks and force customers to migrate to new technologies.”

Internet Overcharging for Profit Without Raising Company Costs

AT&T has no worries about data tsunamis and "exafloods" when app makers or consumers are willing to pay more.

With customers seeking to get the most out of expensive wireless data plans, data usage naturally goes up. But so do prices, meaning the “data tsunami” carriers warn about is not bad for their bottom line at all.

In 2011, consumer research group Validas found average data consumption was up 34.7% for all users, from 448.8MB in January to 604.8MB by December.  AT&T responded with a price increase and an allowance boost that will benefit only a tiny minority of customers.  The most popular data plans now cost $5 a month more: $30 for 3 gigabytes, up from $25 for 2GB and $50 for 5GB, up from $45 for 4GB.  But Validas found only 5% of wireless customers use more than 2GB of data per month, with only 2.7% using more than 3GB.

That translates into higher AT&T bills for the 97% of customers who don’t come close to using even 2GB a month.  Although the price hike delivers no tangible benefit to the overwhelming majority of customers, it does deliver an extra $5 a month from their bank account to AT&T’s.

The “Anyone Pays But Us” Model for “Heavy Traffic”

With online video “clogging” the wireless airwaves, companies like AT&T should be interested in offloading as much video to wired or Wi-Fi service. But late last month, the company suggested a way customers could bypass its stringent data caps by allowing content companies to pay for the wireless traffic their customers generate.

“A feature that we’re hoping to have out sometime next year is the equivalent of 800 numbers that would say, if you take this app, this app will come without any network usage,” said John Donovan, who oversees AT&T’s network and technology. “What they’re saying is, why don’t we go create new revenue streams that don’t exist today and find a way to split them … “It’d be like freight included.”

Only wasn’t the railroad already overburdened with traffic, threatened with a nationwide slowdown?  If one is willing to flash enough money, it’s remarkable how quickly the tidal wave of wireless congestion and despair can be pushed back out to sea.  Just don’t tell Washington lawmakers.  This is a crisis of epic proportions after all.

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Carriers Facing Data Tsunami 3-21-12.mp4[/flv]

Derek Kerton, principal analyst at Kerton Group, talks about increased demand for data and the impact on wireless carriers. Kerton compares it to today’s gasoline prices. Demand=higher prices.  Wall Street folks like Kerton thinks more spectrum isn’t the total answer.  Smaller cell sites and more Wi-Fi might be.  Otherwise, prepare for bill shock.  (4 minutes)

The new 4G LTE-equipped Apple iPad you picked up late last week may be burning a hole in your wallet more than you think.  Across the country, consumers are reporting shock and surprise when they discover the new, faster mobile broadband-equipped tablet is capable of blowing through AT&T and Verizon Wireless’ monthly usage caps in a matter of hours.

The culprits: online video and giant-sized app downloads.

Online video on a usage-limited mobile broadband plan simply does not last long on Apple’s newest sensation.  A Wall Street Journal article found one new iPad owner discouraged after a two hour basketball game completely obliterated his 3GB usage allowance provided by AT&T.  With $10/GB overlimit fees just around the corner, AT&T is set to earn enormous data fees from customers who use their iPads to stream video.

[flv width=”512″ height=”308″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSJ New Apple iPad Eats Up Monthly Data Plans 3-21-12.flv[/flv]

The Wall Street Journal reports the newest iPad has been out for less than a week and buyers are already burning through their monthly data allowances on usage capped 4G mobile plans.  (3 minutes)

USA Today tech columnist Edward Baig also blew through his allowance in less than one day:

Less than 24 hours after purchasing the Verizon Wireless version of the iPad + 4G — and choosing a $30, 2GB monthly data plan from Verizon — I was shocked by the notification on my iPad’s screen: “There is no data remaining on your current plan.”

My remaining options for the month included changing to a $50 5GB data plan or an $80 10GB plan. (AT&T offers a 250MB plan for $14.99; 3GB for $30; and 5GB for $50.)

[…] In my case, I wasn’t watching video. What nailed me, I think, is that I was wirelessly downloading a number of the apps that I had already purchased for my older iPad onto the latest model. Those apps were made available through Apple’s iCloud.

To help avoid just this situation, the new iPad has a 50MB per app download limit on 4G. Anything over that, and you’re directed to Wi-Fi. (The over-the-air download limit on 3G-capable iPads was 20MB.) But that’s a per-app limit, and all those smaller-sized apps I was moving to the new iPad collectively added up.

Storing anything on Apple’s iCloud service or other backup storage sites like Dropbox can prove costly when relying on 4G service from AT&T and Verizon.  That’s on top of Apple’s premium price for 4G-equipped iPads, which start at $629 (comparable Wi-Fi only models are priced at $499 and above).  As a result, consumers are shutting off the wireless mobile feature they paid $130 extra to receive.

“All the advantages of the iPad device are completely neutralized by [AT&T’s] two gigabyte data limit,” Steve Wells told the Journal.

Some customers are upgrading their mobile data plans to 5GB for $50 a month, offered by both AT&T and Verizon.  Others are learning to stick to Wi-Fi.  According to a study conducted by the consulting firm Chetan Sharma, nearly 90% of tablets bought in the United States are Wi-Fi only models.  The added cost for mobile-equipped tablets and the expensive data plans that accompany them are largely responsible.

Consumer Advice:

1. You can still leverage 4G mobile broadband speeds on a cheaper Wi-Fi-only equipped iPad if your smartphone supports the “mobile hotspot” feature. When activated, your phone becomes a Wi-Fi hotspot your iPad can connect to for wireless data. If you have an unlimited mobile hotspot plan from Verizon Wireless (now difficult to obtain unless you are grandfathered on an unlimited data plan), you are not subject to Verizon’s usage limits for mobile devices.
2. Rely as much as possible on Wi-Fi, especially for file downloads or streamed content. Since the iPad can seamlessly switch between Wi-Fi and expensive mobile data service, protect yourself by shutting off Cellular Data within the settings menu when you don’t absolutely need to use it.
3. Turn off LTE service when not needed. 4G consumes battery life faster and its speeds encourage the kind of increased usage that can exhaust your allowance.
4. Monitor how much data you’ve used from the settings menu. Web browsing and e-mail will not consume a lot.  Online video and giant app downloads will.

[Thanks to our regular readers Scott and Earl for sending in several stories reporting on this.]

Apple iPad in the News:

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Brown Says He Wouldnt Ditch iPad 2 for New Version 3-16-12.mp4[/flv]

Joe Brown, editor-in-chief at Gizmodo.com, talks about Apple Inc.’s new iPad, the outlook for Amazon.com Inc.’s Kindle Fire and the tablet market. Brown speaks with Jon Erlichman on Bloomberg Television’s “Bloomberg West.” (6 minutes)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WNYW New York Record Breaking Sales for iPad 3-19-12.mp4[/flv]

Shelly Palmer talks about the record-breaking sales numbers of the new Apple iPad. He discusses what is great and not so great about the new tablet on New York’s WNYW-TV.  (4 minutes)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Reynolds Sees No Danger Despite New IPad’s Higher Heat 3-20-12.mp4[/flv]

Paul Reynolds, electronics editor for Consumer Reports, talks about the magazine’s temperature test of Apple Inc.’s new iPad. The newest iPad runs “significantly hotter” than the earlier model when conducting processor-intensive tasks such as playing graphics-heavy games, Consumer Reports said on its website.  (9 minutes)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WFXT Boston New Ipad Is it Worth it 3-22-12.flv[/flv]

It’s the hottest item in the tech world – literally. WFXT in Boston also takes a look at how other tablet manufacturers are doing in competition with Apple.  (4 minutes)

Not quite.

Virgin Mobile founder Richard Branson is trying to convince customers they should sign up with a phone company that only sells you the services you need, but if “unlimited data” is one of them, look somewhere else.

Starting Friday, Virgin Mobile will quietly begin to throttle “heavy users” who reach 2.5GB of usage on their “unlimited use” data plans.  For the remainder of the billing cycle, Virgin will reduce mobile broadband speeds to just 256kbps — comparable to a significantly congested 3G connection.

It’s a long fall from Virgin Mobile’s original unlimited data offer which the company briefly attempted in the summer of 2010.

Entirely reliant on Sprint’s mobile network (and now operates as the prepaid division of Sprint), Virgin Mobile couldn’t handle the demand and quickly threatened to slow down the connections of their heaviest users.

The carrier’s decision to set a specific limit for its speed throttle was originally intended to take effect last October, but was delayed until March 23, 2012.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/New Virgin Mobile Ad.flv[/flv]

Virgin Mobile’s delayed implementation of its speed throttle coincides with this imaging “refresh” of the “New Virgin Mobile” starring a timeless Richard Branson. (1 minute)

Virgin Mobile explains its reasons:

This change comes about because of the enormous data usage driven by our new more sophisticated smartphones, and the more extensive uses customers are finding for these devices.  We want to be able to serve our Beyond Talk customers who use these unlimited plans for their data-centric daily activity, primarily for regular access to email, the Internet, and social networking sites. Our goal is to ensure our products perform at the best possible level and that we have the best possible experience for all subscribers.  These control options are similar to those other carriers have in place ? and that Virgin Mobile maintains for its Broadband2Go product as well.

These plans are still unlimited.  There is no cap or limit on how much you can consume in any given month.  In order to ensure optimal network performance and a good customer experience for all subscribers, we are moving forward in establishing some parameters.

Most Beyond Talk customers will not experience a change in the performance of their Virgin Mobile service or notice any difference.  If you use this service for typical email, internet surfing and downloading, your throughput speeds should not be noticeably impacted.  For Beyond Talk subscribers who are using more than 2.5GB during a monthly plan cycle, limits to throughput speeds for the remainder of their monthly plan cycle will enable us to preserve overall network performance and customer experience.

The company’s redefinition of the word “unlimited” in nothing new in the world of mobile data.  T-Mobile, AT&T, and Cricket all throttle their customers when they exceed a certain level of usage, yet some still market “unlimited use” plans that many customers don’t realize are limited in usefulness when arbitrary allowances are exceeded.

Concerns for “optimal network performance” and “a good experience for all” disappear when you pull your wallet out. Virgin Mobile will reset your usage allowance to zero if you agree to pay for a new month of service the moment they’ve throttled your service.  That will get you another 2.5GB of usage, whether it preserves overall network performance or not.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Richard Branson Message.flv[/flv]

Watch Virgin Group’s Richard Branson explain why Virgin Mobile wants to change the image consumers have about their mobile phone company.  A fine print disclosure that “unlimited” mobile data really isn’t may not change things for the better.  (2 minutes)

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Senate Hearing on Verizon-Comcast Deal 3-21-12.flv[/flv]

This afternoon, the U.S. Senate’s Subcommittee on Antitrust, Competition Policy and Consumer Rights held a hearing on the potential antitrust implications of a deal between Verizon and some of the nation’s largest cable companies that would deliver Verizon warehoused, unused wireless spectrum owned by four of the nation’s largest cable operators and open the door to Verizon Wireless pitching cable television subscriptions.  The hearing: “The Verizon/Cable Deals: Harmless Collaboration or a Threat to Competition and Consumers?” lasts 2 hours, 23 minutes.

Not all mobile customers are treated equally.

That is the conclusion of a new piece in MIT’s Technology Review, which found wireless companies carefully data mine their customers in an effort to keep their best (and most profitable) customers happy, while leaving those who pay substantially less or enjoy an unlimited data plan on hold.

The concept of “big data” — the practice of collecting and analyzing customer usage, payments, and services, has become part of today’s sophisticated data analysis used by wireless companies to target their highest level of service to their best customers.

In practice this means big spenders might cut ahead of others in customer service call queues, be given priority on wireless carriers’ networks, and be pampered with discounts, service credits, and other special offers when service goes awry.

Carriers merge data about network problems—such as how many dropped calls a consumer experienced—with unstructured data such as the transcripts of complaints to customer-service representatives, deciphered by voice-recognition software and searched for angry keywords.

For customers enrolled in expensive “tiered” data plans, the carriers are vigilant to respond with refunds or discounts on re-enrollments; they tend not to be so generous to customers with resource-guzzling unlimited data plans.

The article did not name any specific carriers, but says selective customer-service treatment is “common industry practice in the United States.”

In Europe, disparate treatment goes even further.  When congestion starts slowing down a provider’s data network, some will boot customers with unlimited data plans onto inferior networks which treat the interlopers as second-class citizens, subject to reduced priority and even throttled speeds in some instances.

It is all designed to maximize profits by keeping the most profitable customers happy, even if lesser customers make due with less.

Data mining opens the door to even bigger profits in the days ahead, especially with contextual and location-based advertising that leverages your location with retailers who believe you can be enticed to stop in their stores in return for a discount offer or coupon sent to your smartphone.

“We’re at the beginning of an era in big-data analytics,” says Antonio Rodriguez, a venture capitalist who works at Matrix Partners in Cambridge, Massachusetts. “If you think about the treasure trove of data they have—it’s question of how they tow the privacy line between what they have access to and what they do with it.”