AT&T has secured support from the Federal Communications Commission for authority to deploy 4G LTE service within a 20MHz portion of the 2.3GHz WCS band after cutting a deal with a next door neighbor especially sensitive about potential interference.

WCS spectrum holders have fought for years to develop commercially viable wireless service, but faced regular opposition from the satellite radio industry concerned that interference problems would result from using the band for mobile data. Right in the middle of the WCS band is Sirius XM, which depends on sensitive receivers to pick up the company’s satellite signal.

But now AT&T and Sirius XM have worked out a compromise both companies believe will protect mobile data and satellite radio. AT&T has conceded 10MHz of its total WCS spectrum for two 5MHz guard bands, devoid of signals, around Sirius XM’s frequencies. Sirius XM signal engineers believe this, combined with power limits, will protect radio receivers from overloading whenever near AT&T’s ground-based LTE cell towers.

In August, AT&T announced its intention to acquire WCS spectrum from NextWave Wireless, a spectrum-squatting holding company, for $600 million. The phone company is also attempting to acquire the remainder of WCS spectrum from the last two significant holders — Comcast and Horizon Wi-Com, which both have between 10-25MHz of spectrum in 149 and 132 communities respectively.

When the acquisitions are complete, AT&T will have WCS spectrum covering virtually the entire nation.

Frequencies in the 2.3GHz band are best received outdoors. Signals crossing windows and walls lose potency. (Courtesy: Greenpacket)

AT&T says it needs the spectrum to further deploy 4G LTE data service across the country. But the company admits it will take up to five years before it can switch on the new frequencies — no current smartphones support the 2.3GHz WCS band.

AT&T has also included provisions to ensure fixed wireless base stations will be able to utilize AT&T’s WCS spectrum, within reasonable limits to protect Sirius XM radios from harmful interference. That has important implications for AT&T’s long-term view that rural landline and broadband service is best delivered over a wireless network.

A major limitation of spectrum in the 2GHz band is the quality of indoor coverage it can deliver. As many Clearwire customers can attest, these frequencies suffer from high transmission loss, poor ability for diffraction, and most importantly, poor building penetration — especially in urban and suburban areas. Tall nearby buildings, homes, and even trees all impede WCS reception. According to Andrea Goldsmith in her book Wireless Communications, there is also a 6dB penetration loss when 2.5GHz signals cross un-insulated glass windows and a 13dB loss for concrete walls, with wood falling somewhere in-between.

But rural areas do better, in part thanks to the higher likelihood of unimpeded line-of-sight access between a cell tower and receiver. AT&T’s fixed wireless solution would place a small antenna on the roof or side of a home, positioned for maximum reception from the nearest cell tower. The signal is then brought indoors through cabling (or in some cases Wi-Fi) and available to customers, comparable to a home broadband connection.

AT&T’s strong spectrum position in WCS gives the company an opportunity to construct a robust, near-nationwide wireless network suitable for rural wireless communications. In more urban areas, WCS could operate seamlessly with AT&T’s lower frequency holdings and offer an extension of its current LTE service.

AT&T’s acquisition of WCS has several important implications for the wireless marketplace:

2GHz signals travel the least distance in urban and suburban areas, often blocked or degraded by buildings or trees. But better results in rural areas suggest AT&T’s WCS spectrum could partly be deployed as a fixed wireless broadband solution, if enough towers are available to support it. (Courtesy: Greenpacket)

1. It proves AT&T never needed to acquire T-Mobile USA. Through spectrum acquisitions like WCS, AT&T can still find relatively inexpensive spectrum suitable for mobile broadband use, without spending tens of billions to acquire a competitor just to poach its spectrum and eliminate a competitor.

2. The Competitive Carriers Association worries AT&T’s acquisition of secondary spectrum holders is allowing the company to gather a massive amount of spectrum.

CCA President & CEO Steven K. Berry said, “Allowing the largest carriers to obtain unlimited amounts of  spectrum on the secondary market raises serious competitive concerns.  The only way for the FCC to truly see the devastating consequences of further spectrum aggregation is by consolidating the proposed applications.  On their own, AT&T’s proposed license acquisitions may not seem significant, but when added together, it totals to a significant amount of spectrum.”

Berry continued, “Should the FCC decide to approve the transactions, it must impose conditions to ensure interoperability across the Lower 700 MHz band and to ensure data roaming – both are absolutely essential ingredients to a healthy, competitive marketplace.  Competitive carriers need access to usable spectrum, and I urge the Commission to carefully review the negative impact these transactions will have on the wireless marketplace.”

3. Clearwire’s 2.5GHz spectrum could become more valuable if AT&T can demonstrate its 2.3GHz service can deliver robust service, if provisioned adequately for customers. Clearwire’s capital investments and overall performance of its limited coverage WiMAX network have been deemed inadequate by its biggest partner Sprint, now constructing its own 4G LTE network to replace Clearwire’s WiMAX network.

4. Credit Suisse analyst Jonathan Chaplin notes Verizon will still have a better standing in spectrum even with AT&T WCS: “AT&T will have the following available for LTE: 20 MHz of 700 MHz nationwide; 20 MHz of WCS nationwide; a few AWS licenses (5 MHz on average). With Verizon’s deal with large cable companies, Verizon will have: 20 MHz of 700 MHz nationwide; 20 MHz of AWS nationwide; another 10 MHz of AWS in 60 percent of the country (13 MHz on average). In addition, Verizon’s spectrum is usable immediately, while AT&T’s WCS will take three to five years to deploy.”

AT&T and Verizon: The Doublemint Twins of Wireless

Wireless carriers other than AT&T and Verizon Wireless have joined forces asking federal regulators to help level the playing field in wireless competition.

At this week’s convention of the newly-relaunched Competitive Carrier Association (CCA), Sprint, T-Mobile USA, Clearwire, C Spire, and more than 100 other small regional rural carriers joined forces in Las Vegas to sound the alarm about a wireless duopoly restraining competition and raising prices for consumers.

“Humpty Dumpty has been put back together again,” said C Spire CEO Hu Meena. “And while the identical twins sometimes agree to meet and discuss industry issues with other industry players, they seldom, if ever, support action that might better the industry as a whole.”

C Spire should know. The company filed a lawsuit against AT&T earlier this year claiming the phone giant manipulated its 700MHz band allocation to lock C Spire customers out of getting access to the latest smartphones.

“At some point, and that time is coming, regulators and politicians are going to have to acknowledge they have a choice to make: they are going to have to decide whether the communications industry, the fundamental driver of the information economy, is going to be regulated by true, healthy competition or by the government,” Meena said.

In the last 20 years, rampant consolidation has reduced the number of national wireless carriers down to four — Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile. Filling in the gaps are various regional providers, all who depend on one of the major four to provide reasonable roaming service for customers traveling beyond the service areas of smaller companies. Without reasonable roaming, competitors are left at a serious disadvantage.

Another major problem is access to the latest smartphones. Major manufacturers largely design and market cell phones for the largest four companies, often relegating smaller providers to sell older or less prominent phones to customers. When phones do not work on the spectrum acquired by smaller competitors, roaming becomes a problem.

But beyond those issues is the question of wireless spectrum. Traditionally sold in competitive auctions, the deepest pocketed companies traditionally win the bulk of frequencies, leaving competitors with less desirable spectrum that has difficulty penetrating buildings or requires a more robust cell tower network.

Meena

Members of the CCA recognize that mergers and consolidation can bring costs down through economy of scale, but in their eyes, AT&T and Verizon’s actions have promulgated a new paradigm for wireless on Wall Street: consolidation around a handful of wireless carriers is healthy; having too many competitors is inefficient.

“Consolidation can introduce business efficiencies,” said Michael Prior, CEO of Atlantic Tele-Network. “But government has a role in making sure that infrastructure is used in a way that works for the entire country. All we’re asking the FCC to do is to make sure there is a level playing field.”

Observers expect the CCA to ask the FCC to set aside spectrum in future wireless auctions exclusively for smaller carriers to help protect what competition still exists.

“There used to be dozens of railroad companies,” Prior noted. “But the government didn’t allow certain companies to develop rails that wouldn’t allow trains to interconnect to rails run by other companies.”

Meena warned the same thing could happen in the wireless industry.

“We know what happened in the first 20 years of the industry where we have had many healthy competitors,” Meena said. “There remains a false hope among too many carriers that the duopoly will one day become reasonable. But, we all know, whether we choose to admit it or not, that until all competitive carriers become fully committed to work together for open competition, the wireless industry playing field will remain harmfully tilted toward the duopoly. They will never give an inch unless and until they have to do so.”

[flv width=”448″ height=”276″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/David Cay Johnston The Fine Print How Big Companies Use Plain English to Rob You Blind 9-19-12.mp4[/flv]

Fellow Brighton, N.Y. resident and Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist David Cay Johnston hits the nail right on the head describing the Big Telecom Swindle that promised America it was going to get something magical called “the information superhighway.”

Over a half-trillion dollars in rate increases later, AT&T and Verizon instead spent a lot of that money on an enormously profitable wireless business that redefines the average American family’s monthly phone bill at $100+. Johnston talks about the broken industry promises of ubiquitous broadband, leaving millions of potential FiOS and U-verse customers behind.

With vast lobbying arms, large cable and phone companies have manipulated public policy to assure they can gouge customers, shortchange workers, and erect barriers to fair play. If consumers don’t pay attention, politicians armed with fat campaign contributions will continue to represent corporate interests, not those of the average American.  

[Note to Mr. Johnston: He isn’t the only reporter paying attention. Hat tip to Stop the Cap! reader Pat McDermott who shared the video.]  (17 minutes)

Verizon has a moratorium on further expansion of its fiber to the home service except in areas where it has existing agreements to deliver service.

Verizon Communications will not expand their FiOS fiber optic network beyond the current obligations the company has with communities where it presently provides service.

Verizon chief financial officer Fran Shammo told investors the company intends to wind down FiOS expansion once its contractual commitments to state and local authorities are met to reap the financial rewards of the fiber optic network it began building in 2006.

“At this point we won’t build beyond that, because at this point we have to capitalize on what we have invested,” Shammo told an investor at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia Conference.

From 2014 beyond, Verizon plans to substantially decrease capital investments in its wired networks and continue to shift spending towards Verizon Wireless. Shareholders may also benefit from an increased dividend payout as the company’s balance sheet improves.

In real terms this means that Verizon will only expand FiOS where it previously signed agreements that allowed the company to gradually roll out its fiber optic network. Large sections of Verizon’s service areas, including major cities in the northeastern corridor, are not on the upgrade list and will not get the service.

Verizon’s experience and scale rolling out fiber to the home service over the past five years allowed the company to achieve a cost of  just $700 to reach each home, less than half the original estimated expense for fiber upgrades. But Verizon still considers the network too expensive to expand further.

Shammo also admitted Verizon is targeting its landline investments to bolster its more profitable wireless business.

“The fact of the matter is wireline capital — and I won’t give the number but it’s pretty substantial — is being spent on the wireline side of the house to support wireless growth,” Shammo said. “So the IP backbone, the data transmission, fiber to the cell, that is all on the wireline books but it’s all being built for the wireless company.”

Bruce Kushnick found no bump in construction expenses for FiOS after 2008 and no major increases in capital expenditures in general. In fact, Verizon, on average, spent more on construction from 2000 to 2004 than from 2005 to 2011, when FiOS construction was at its peak.

Bruce Kushnick from New Networks Institute has been tracking Verizon’s capital investments for the last decade and found Verizon was hardly hurting paying for FiOS network upgrades. In fact, Kushnick suspects much of the money to pay for FiOS came from a combination of ratepayer rate increases and diversion of investments intended to maintain Verizon’s existing landline network:

Whatever amount Verizon did spend on FiOS — and obviously it was a not insignificant amount — would therefore appear to have come out of the standard construction budgets that were supposed to be used to upgrade the lines that most Americans are still using for their phone service: the Public Switched Telephone Networks, or PSTN. It would seem that customers, including seniors, low income families, minorities and municipalities have been funding the construction of a cable service through the hefty monthly fees they pay for a dialtone and ancillary services. In some states this is actually illegal.

If Verizon did actually spend $23 billion, then it appears to have come at the expense of the traditional maintenance and upgrades of the utility plant — and the PSTN got totally hosed. At the very least, prices for basic phone service should have been in steep decline as one of the major costs, construction, was dramatically lowered.

Instead, Verizon was also getting rate increases specifically to pay for FiOS. For instance, Verizon persuaded New York officials to increase rates for “fiber optic investments,” where the only service that could use the fiber optic service was Verizon’s FiOS.

For instance, when New York State Department of Public Service Commission Chairman Garry Brown announced the approval of a $1.95 a month rate hike for residential phone lines in 2009, he said “there are certain increases in Verizon’s costs that have to be recognized.” He explained: “This is especially important given the magnitude of the company’s capital investment program, including its massive deployment of fiber optics in New York. We encourage Verizon to make appropriate investments in New York, and these minor rate increases will allow those investments to continue.”

Of course the states weren’t told that everyone would be charged extra for a service that only some people were going to get. In New Jersey, for instance, Verizon made a firm commitment to rewire the entire state with fiber optics — capable of 45 Mbps in both directions. It was supposed to be 100 percent completed by 2010. Instead, Verizon claims to have “passed” 1.9 million homes, representing 57 percent of the households in its territories — but “passed” may or may not mean that they can actually get service.

With Shammo reporting FiOS investments winding down by 2014, Verizon is not increasing the budget to maintain the copper infrastructure it will require non-FiOS customers to keep using for service. Instead, capital investments will continue to be spent supporting Verizon Wireless, although in lower amounts.

“So if you look at overall, I continue to say [investments] will be flat to down and I think we will be probably more slightly down than flat, and [CEO] Lowell [McAdam] and I are really starting to focus in on where we spend that investment and make sure that that investment returns on a shorter period of time,” Shammo said. “And that is really the focus. So what I like to say is that our ratio of CapEx to revenue will continue to decline.”

A N.J. State Commission report from June 2010 saw this coming two years earlier and noted:

“While it is possible for Verizon to extend service throughout its authorized territory, to an additional 155 municipalities in the state that are not included in its current application of 369 towns, Verizon has indicated it will now concentrate its capital expenditures, expected to be between $16.8 billion and $17.2 billion in 2010 on its wireless telephone network. Further FiOS expansion will be limited to increasing penetration in those communities where FiOS is currently available, according to the company.”

Apple’s newest iPhone is proving to be a mixed blessing for wireless carriers and their Wall Street investors as company margins suffer from the subsidies paid to woo customers with discounted phones.

The biggest winner remains Apple, which charges between $649-849 for an iPhone 5 that IHSiSuppli estimates costs between $207-238 to manufacture, depending on the amount of memory included. Regardless of how much you pay for your next iPhone with a 2-year contract, Apple gets a much larger wholesale price, upfront.

Barclays analyst James Ratcliffe estimates AT&T, Verizon Wireless, and Sprint are providing nearly $400 in advance subsidies to reduce the contract price of the iPhone to between $199 and $399. That subsidy is 60 percent higher than comparable Android smartphones.

“We always say an Apple a day keeps the profits away,” Neil Montefiore, chief executive of Singapore wireless carrier Starhub said during an August earnings conference call.

Wireless carriers have to report the subsidy on balance sheets as a drop in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (called EBIDTA on Wall Street). AT&T and Verizon typically don’t see profits from Android smartphone customers until 5-6 months after selling them a new phone. Apple iPhone customers are unprofitable for up to nine months.

According to Reuters, profit margins will fall for America’s two largest cell phone companies because of the newest iPhone.

AT&T’s margin is expected to fall from 45 percent in the second quarter to 40.8 percent in the third quarter and 35.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Verizon’s margin is expected to fall from 49 percent in the second quarter to 47.4 percent in the third quarter and 43.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

Sprint CEO Dan Hesse

Under pressure from investors, wireless carriers are trying harder than ever to reduce the financial hit from the endless two-year upgrade cycle most North Americans have gotten used to over more than a decade.

For most, changing data pricing has been the key to earlier profits. Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless have eliminated unlimited data plans for new customers, and Verizon has taken away subsidies for customers holding onto a grandfathered unlimited plan. As contracts expire, customers seeking upgrades must either purchase their next phone at the unsubsidized price or give up their unlimited plan for good.

Sprint continues to bank on its unlimited data offer bundled with Apple’s iPhone 5 as an important marketing tool to attract new customers. It has worked for them, but the company may eventually capitalize on that growth with increased prices, but not before Sprint completes an ambitious upgrade to a 4G LTE nationwide network.

“We have a competitive disadvantage in terms of LTE footprint,” CEO Dan Hesse told investors. “You don’t increase your price when you have a network footprint disadvantage. You want to wait and think of that until you get to that point.”

The foundation for future profits come from data usage.

Verizon’s chief financial officer Fran Shammo believes Verizon Wireless’ foundation for higher profits will come from their new family shared data plans.

“When you think about revenue growth into the future, the shared revenue plan and what I’ll call revenue per account if you will, is really the critical piece because there are two functions,” Shammo told investors last week. “One is get people to share so that data becomes the most significant piece of the plan and the more data they consume the more they will have to buy up in bundles.”

“And the second one is make it easier for customers to attach more devices. So when you think about that future of the car, the home, medical devices, and anything else that you want to attach to that wireless network, […] I get incremental dollars for each device that’s attached and that is really what drives the future revenue growth.”

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CBS Sprint CEO talks iPhone 5 and unlimited data strategy 9-20-12.flv[/flv]

Sprint CEO Dan Hesse last week appeared on CBS’ “This Morning” to discuss the arrival of Apple’s newest iPhone and the company’s unlimited wireless data plan.  (4 minutes)