Dismissing the implications of an antitrust regulatory review not seen in the United States for years, AT&T this morning officially unveiled its intention to acquire T-Mobile in a $39 billion deal that will give AT&T nearly 40 percent of the American wireless market.

With a combination of the two companies, the new super-sized AT&T would become America’s largest wireless operator, and deliver nearly three out of every four wireless customers to just two companies — AT&T and Verizon.

Wall Street is delighted.

“Phenomenal deal if it happens,” said Jonathan Chaplin, an analyst with Credit Suisse Group AG. “Huge upside for AT&T — [T-Mobile owner] Deutsche Telekom getting a great price; however, we believe regulatory risk is enormous.”

That may prove an understatement, if public interest groups have their way.

“The combination of the second-largest wireless carrier, AT&T, with the fourth-largest, T-Mobile is, as former FCC Chairman Reed Hundt once said, ‘unthinkable,'” said Public Knowledge President Gigi Sohn. “We urge policymakers to think similarly today. The wireless market, now dominated by four big companies, would have only three at the top. We know the results of arrangements like this – higher prices, fewer choices, less innovation.”

“It’s difficult to come up with any justification or benefits from letting AT&T swallow up one of its few major competitors,” said Parul P. Desai, policy counsel for Consumers Union. “AT&T is already a giant in the wireless marketplace, where customers routinely complain about hidden charges and other anti-consumer practices.”

...Ourselves with AT&T

“I think it could reach some level of controversy,” said an antitrust expert, who worked for the Justice Department’s antitrust division. “There’s going to be spectrum issues. This is going to be a complex deal and I don’t think it’s a foregone conclusion that it will be approved.”

Despite the concerns, AT&T is confident that regulators have been sufficiently cowed by the company’s lobbyists to approve just about anything they bring to the table.

AT&T CEO Randall Stephenson told reporters on a conference call that the company spent plenty of time doing “homework” on how to get the deal to pass regulator scrutiny.

The American carrier even bet its winning outcome with a $3 billion cancellation fee, payable to Deutsche Telekom if the deal cannot be consummated.

In AT&T’s presentation this morning, the company promised they would improve America’s worst-rated cell phone company by merging with America’s second worst-rated cell phone company.  Specifically, AT&T says the deal will bring T-Mobile’s wireless spectrum allocations to the larger carrier, which can alleviate spectrum shortages.  The company also promised, in return for deal approval, expand service in more rural locations and quicker upgrades to the next generation of speedy wireless data — LTE.

Ralph de la Vega

Ralph de la Vega, AT&T’s president and CEO of Mobility and Consumer Markets, showed slides promising T-Mobile customers would benefit from new choices in cell phones and would enjoy AT&T’s far larger nationwide network, delivering improved service.  But he also hinted it would cost value-oriented T-Mobile customers, promoting the deal’s potential of winning new revenue from customers soon forced to pay AT&T’s significantly higher prices.

AT&T claimed the company still would face robust competition from Verizon, Sprint, and a number of much-smaller regional carriers like MetroPCS and Leap Wireless’ Cricket — themselves under pressure to merge.  But consumer groups are skeptical.

“Don’t believe the hype: There is nothing about having less competition that will benefit wireless consumers,” said Free Press Research Director Derek Turner. “And if regulators approve this deal, they will further cement duopoly control over the wireless market by AT&T and Verizon.”

“The FCC’s National Broadband Plan, issued last year, warned about the absence of sufficient competition in the wireless market. The possibility that three players would control nearly three-quarters of that market will surely trigger intense scrutiny by the agencies,” said Andrew Schwartzman of Media Access Project.

The deal has been under negotiation for several months between the German carrier and AT&T.  Many Wall Street analysts see the deal as a major win for T-Mobile, which has struggled mightily against the AT&T and Verizon juggernauts.  The German company wins a seat on AT&T’s board, a part interest in the carrier, and a high valuation on its network.  AT&T gets the country’s only other major carrier using the same technology it does — GSM — and picks up the potential of more robust coverage in the urban and suburban areas T-Mobile focuses on.  AT&T will also follow the time honored tradition of buying something they cannot afford outright — they will finance it with a generous credit line arranged by J.P. Morgan Chase.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Mergers and Acquisitions ATT and T-Mobile Merger to Create Industry Giant 3-21-11.flv[/flv]

CNBC managed to achieve an exclusive interview with the CEOs of AT&T and T-Mobile about their merger.  As with most business media, don’t expect a lot of challenging questions in response to the claims made by the company executives about the merger or its impact on consumers.  (20 minutes)

South Africans won uncapped broadband service one year ago tomorrow when an upstart provider — MWeb — unveiled its “Free the Web” campaign, delivering usage-limit free Internet access to customers across South Africa.

The company’s move to unlimited, flat rate service was heavily criticized by competing providers, who enforce draconian usage limits and have tried to convince customers the global trend was moving towards metered broadband.  But MWeb president Rudi Jansen dismisses the notion limiting broadband is the way to go, suggesting usage caps and meters are more about profits than serving customers.

Today, MWeb’s uncapped broadband is a runaway success, with more than 50 percent of its customers switching to the meter-free service.  It has been profitable, too.

“We are running ahead of our business plan and all our products are profitable,” Jansen tells TechCentral.

Now the nation’s semi-privatized, 39% state-owned phone company Telkom is widely expected to stop the erosion of its own broadband customers by adopting flat rate broadband service itself.

For Jansen, that would represent a welcome move.  The Internet visionary wants to transform South African broadband away from its current expensive pricing model and throw the Internet wide open.

“I’m looking forward to it,” Jansen says. “The sooner they launch it the better.”

The arrival of flat rate broadband made headlines across the country in 2010. (click to enlarge)

South African broadband has coped with challenges few other countries endure.  International connectivity has always been one of the biggest — sustaining traffic on satellite backbone links or underpowered undersea cables first forced providers to limit Internet use because of capacity concerns.  But new fiber-based underseas cables from Seacom and Wacs, including the forthcoming 5.1Tbps West African Cable System project will dramatically increase capacity and slash costs.

Jansen (Courtesy: TechCentral)

Yet several of his competitors want to keep the caps on and prices high, earning lucrative profits on a service Jansen says is becoming less costly to deliver every day.

Jansen admits MWeb is currently forced to traffic shape certain activities on his network, particularly bandwidth-intensive peer to peer traffic, because other providers in the country don’t agree with his wide-open view of the Internet.

He wants every provider in South Africa to agree to “open peering,” a practice that allows providers to exchange traffic with each other without charging transit fees.  He also wants to see wholesale mobile wireless pricing come down.  In Africa, mobile broadband has a strong place in a market where cable infrastructure (and broadband speed) is often lacking.

Telkom, South Africa’s equivalent to AT&T or Bell, is cited by Jansen as the biggest impediment to his plan to deliver truly unfettered, unlimited access.

Some South Africans deride the state phone company as "Hellkom"

In South Africa, broadband customers pay two providers — Telkom for the monthly rental of the telephone line and an ISP for the DSL service that connects through it.  Jansen says Telkom’s broadband line rental prices are too high.  But more importantly, the interconnection fee Telkom charges providers to access its network is “absolutely ludicrous.”

“Those prices are far more than the price of international connectivity,” Jansen says. “Telkom charges us to get access to their last mile and then charges end users to get access to the same last mile, so they make double money on it. And it’s completely mispriced.”

Despite the challenges from other providers, MWeb will celebrate the first anniversary of uncapped broadband tomorrow with a surprise announcement, probably targeting small business clients.

Time Warner Cable’s new free iPad application, giving authenticated cable customers a selection of live cable channels to watch on the portable device, crashed under heavy demand last evening, hours after the company unveiled it in a mass e-mail campaign to customers.

Time Warner Cable TV for iPad is Time Warner’s first serious effort at delivering a cable TV experience to an online audience, initially streaming 31 cable channels in HD to customers who pay for both cable television and broadband from the company.

Several of the featured networks were part of earlier contract battles with the cable company. Scripps-Howard’s Food Network and HGTV are there, as is Fox’s FX and Fox News.  Some smaller “less-connected” networks like Hallmark Channel also made the cut.  Comcast-NBC’s networks also have a prominent place, including Bravo and CNBC.  All four major cable news channels are included.  Time Warner has been making a point to negotiate for on-demand and streaming rights with cable networks as part of contract negotiations.

Channel Lineup

Requirements

• iPad™ with iOS 4.
• Time Warner Cable video package at the Standard (Expanded Basic) level or higher.
• Time Warner Cable Internet Service (Road Runner^® Standard or higher recommended for best experience. EarthLink^® High Speed or EarthLink^® Cable Max is also supported).

[flv width=”416″ height=”254″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/TV for iPad Time Warner Cable Ad.flv[/flv]

Time Warner Cable advertises its new iPad app for online viewing.  (15 seconds)

Time Warner Cable's new app for the iPad delivers 31 channels of live cable network viewing for free -if- you are a cable subscriber willing to watch from home.

Plenty of channels are missing though, including local broadcasters, Turner Broadcasting-owned networks like TNT and Turner Classic Movies, and sports networks.

But the most obvious limitation is that the service only works from inside of your own home, over a Time Warner Wi-Fi broadband connection.  You cannot take your viewing on-the-go.  This limitation seemed curious, considering other companies provide similar online viewing apps that can be used anywhere a wireless connection exists. 

Despite the limits, AdWeek reports several unnamed cable networks fired off warning shots yesterday to Time Warner Cable executives warning them they were streaming networks without permission.

Network legal reps are issuing a flock of heated missives to the nation’s No. 2 cable operator, calling for an immediate halt to a new service that allows subscribers to stream video content to iPads and other tablet devices. Although Time Warner Cable introduced the free app just 24 hours ago, a number of cable network groups have already made it abundantly clear that they had not signed off on any such distribution arrangement.

[…] “Distribution via any sort of third-party app is not addressed in our carriage deals with Time Warner Cable or any other operator,” said one affiliate chief. “There is going to be a messy dissection of what the rights are, but our position is that [this sort of distribution] is not authorized by our affiliate agreements.”

TWC CEO Glenn Britt has cautiously navigated the syntactic rapids, offering carefully worded assessments about the nature of the service. “Certainly all the business structures with the owners of copyrights are not fully in place, but you can begin to see a very exciting future for this set of industries and for the American consumer,” Britt said last August, after announcing plans to bow the iPad app. “There is great potential in all these devices…But it’s also a complicated process.”

Cable networks are concerned viewers who are not authenticated cable subscribers could get free access to programming from account sharing.  But considering Time Warner Cable has locked down viewing to inside the home for the time being, it is unlikely Time Warner Cable faces the same degree of wrath that could be heaped on Comcast and satellite dish TV providers who deliver apps that permit anywhere-viewing.

Time Warner Cable's new iPad app crashed under a heavy load last night.

The cable company’s heavy promotion of the newly-available app in mass e-mail announcements was probably a mistake, however.  The online viewing party came to a rapid end last night when the company’s servers, unprepared for the demand, ended up turning away many would-be viewers.

Jeff Simmermon, director of digital communications for the cable company, said they did not anticipate the level of demand they got last night.

“At about 8 o’clock last night the app crashed under a much heavier load than we anticipated. Our engineering team is working as hard as they can to put a fix in place and get everything up and running as soon as they can,” Simmermon wrote on Time Warner’s blog.

“For the time being, the app is running with only 15 channels. We have found that by temporarily reducing the number of available channels, we can ease strain on the authentication process. This will enable us to offer at least some sort of an experience to our customers while we get a fix in place. We’ll add the other 17 channels back in as soon as we can fix the underlying issue, and we’ll be adding more channels in future iterations of the app as well.”

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/BTIG Time Warner Cable iPad App.flv[/flv]

Rich Greenfield demonstrates Time Warner’s new iPad app.  (3 minutes)

And then there were three?

Deutsche Telekom has held talks about a possible merger with Sprint in exchange for a major stake in the combined entity, according to people with knowledge of the matter.

The German phone company, owner of T-Mobile, America’s fourth-largest cell phone company, has been pounded by analysts after revealing its earnings for 2011 were likely to be below expectations.  T-Mobile, DT’s American brand, has faced harsh criticism for its stagnant performance, declining earnings, and bleak future.

Michael Kovacocy, director of Equity Evolution Securities, told CNBC T-Mobile is essentially in last place among America’s major national carriers and is going to stay there so long as it targets value-conscious customers who care more about a lower bill than a robust network.

“We think in the long term, perhaps, their position is unsustainable,” Kovacocy said.

Deutsche Telekom, the German phone company, does considerably better in Europe than in the United States.

The analyst predicts T-Mobile will always be relegated to #4 status in an American market dominated by Verizon and AT&T, with Sprint behind in third place.  T-Mobile is further back than that and has stagnated.  Unless they make radical changes — changes Kovacocy feels will be destructive to shareholder value — such as price cuts or major infrastructure improvements, T-Mobile will remain an also-ran.

“They have the wrong customers, the wrong network, and we think their spectrum is very difficult because it’s uncompetitive versus some of the spectrum AT&T and Verizon has,” Kovacocy said.

T-Mobile saw the departure of at least 150,000 customers during the last quarter — most heading for other carriers.

Talks between the two companies have reportedly been difficult, however, over Sprint’s willingness to meet DT’s price.  Sprint has seen losses erode the value of its competitor, and may want to pay less than the $25 billion estimated value of T-Mobile’s network and operations.

Sprint has experience trying to integrate customers from two incompatible networks together, with less than spectacular results.

Another problem:  the two networks rely on different and incompatible standards — CDMA for Sprint and GSM for T-Mobile.  Sprint experienced major integration problems once before, when it acquired Nextel from Craig McCaw in 2005.  Nextel’s iDEN network enabled the popular “push-to-talk” feature beloved by construction workers and contractors, but made integrating the Nextel family into Sprint a hellish nightmare.  After initially promising to phase out the iDEN network by 2009, Sprint recently announced it had pushed back the date of decommissioning to 2013.

A buyout of T-Mobile could leave Sprint serving customers on three different networks — its own customers, those still on Nextel’s network, and T-Mobile.

Although predictions are already being made the merger would pass muster in Washington, public policy groups concerned about the ongoing loss of competition in the wireless marketplace will have a major example to show this practice at work.  Americans continue to face some of the most expensive cell phone service in the world, and T-Mobile’s aggressive pricing helped keep other carriers from raising prices much further.

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Deutsche Telekom May Sell T-Mobile USA Unit to Sprint 3-8-11.flv[/flv]

Bloomberg News covers the possible sale of T-Mobile to Sprint.  (6 minutes)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Sell Deutsche Telekom 2-25-11.flv[/flv]

Back on Feb. 25, CNBC  interviewed one of several analysts who were upset with T-Mobile’s likely performance in 2011.  (4 minutes)

Meet Daniel and Kate Methot, proud owners of $5000+ in Bell data charges the company cannot explain.

A couple from Merritt, B.C. has received bills from Bell for more than $5,000 in data usage, even after the skyrocketing bills made the family so frightened of their phone, they turned it off.

This is the story of Daniel and Kate Methot, who purchased a smartphone from Bell in October of last year.  When the first bill arrived, it contained more than $1,000 in data charges.

“My wife looked at me and I thought ‘Oh boy, what did I do that I didn’t know that I had done? I am in trouble’,” Daniel told CBC News.

When Internet Overcharging of this magnitude occurs, most people first blame themselves, assuming they did something wrong.  The Methot family figured they downloaded a malfunctioning or data hungry app or left something running on the phone.

“We never thought we would be billed for something we weren’t using. That was sort of a new concept for us,” Daniel said, but the family still sought guidance from Bell on how the charges could get that high.

“They really couldn’t give us an answer,” Kate said.

The family deleted everything they could find on their new Samsung Galaxy phone in hopes of stopping the surprise charges.

But when the December bill arrived, the couple was horrified to discover their new bill was more than $3,500 — almost entirely for data usage that literally cost Bell pennies to provide.  In fact, the phone company managed to bill the couple for 30 hours of usage during one 24-hour day, a clear warning sign there was a severe billing problem at work here.

But when it comes to protesting charges with Bell, the Methots discovered customers are guilty until proved innocent.

“I felt like I was being treated like a criminal — like we were trying to essentially steal from them,” Daniel said. “When you call in to argue a bill, that’s what they do. They tell you to pay — and don’t ask questions.”

Kate got a stern lecture from Bell telling her to quit watching videos on her phone all day long.

Of course, the couple denied doing any such thing.  In fact, by the time January arrived, both Daniel and Kate became afraid of even going near their phone, much less using it.  The couple routinely shuts the phone off when they are not actually using it for calls, but still the data charges kept coming — more than $5,200 to date.

CBC News asked Bell several times for a response to the Methot’s complaint. While refusing an in-depth interview on the topic, Bell told CBC News it cannot yet explain what is happening with the account.

That hardly inspires confidence for the Methot family.  Despite Bell being unable to explain the charges, they continue to insist on being paid for at least some of them.

The couple even hired a lawyer for $400 to send a letter to Bell demanding better answers or the couple would not continue to pay the unexplained charges.

In that case, Bell would simply turn their account over to collections, and potentially ruin their credit rating.

Bell’s theories about the stratospheric bills include:

• They are running up the bill themselves and now trying to run away from the charges they incurred;
• They are using the phone’s Wi-Fi hotspot feature, inadvertently allowing the entire neighborhood to share their connection;
• They are watching Netflix all day and into the night;
• They ran across the border into the United States and are incurring roaming charges;
• They are tethering their computer to the phone and that consumes massive amounts of data.

The one explanation Bell hasn’t imagined is that their billing system is completely fouled up and their usage meter cannot be trusted.  One might imagine Bell could actually determine where the phone is being used, to dismiss the roaming theory.  Plus Daniel reports he is incurring data charges even when the phone is completely powered off.

Finally, Bell admitted they were responsible, credited the account for more than $3,000 of the charges, and the Methot family thought their long nightmare was over.

Only it isn’t.

Merritt, B.C.

Days later, though, they received a bill with $1,204 in new charges.

“It was just a temporary relief and then the stress is back again,” Kate said.

“At that point I wasn’t interested in being a Bell customer anymore,” Daniel added.

On top of that, Bell has reneged on their apology, now claiming they were not responsible for the faulty charges after all.  The Methot family can pay their $1,200 phone bill with cash, check, money order or credit card.  And if they plan to leave, they better be ready to cough up the early termination fee as well — another several hundred dollars.

Isolated incident?  Don’t bet on it.

“These customers are not alone,” Howard Maker, the head of the federal Commissioner for Complaints for Telecommunications Services told CBC News. “Unfortunately, Canadian telecom consumers do suffer from many billing errors from their providers.”

Maker said his office received more than 1,900 complaints about wireless providers last year, and 40 per cent of them were about overcharging.

With Bell insisting customers can trust their usage meter — the one that generates $5,000 in data charges for one family alone — Canadians should prepare themselves for the bills that will follow. With no oversight agency able to monitor the accuracy of the meter, Bell customers will just have to take their word for it.

[flv width=”640″ height=”388″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CBC News Couple’s huge bills unexplained by Bell 3-1-11.flv[/flv]

CBC News talks with the Methot family about their Internet Overcharging experience.  (5 minutes)