Verizon Wireless is contemplating the end of flat rate, unlimited data plans as it introduces fourth generation data networks this year.

“We will probably need to change the design of our pricing where it will not be totally unlimited, flat rate,” John Killian, chief financial officer of Verizon Communications Inc., the wireless unit’s parent, said in an interview at Bloomberg’s headquarters in New York.

Verizon expects “explosions in data traffic” as the company introduces customers to its 4G network, potentially ten times faster than older mobile broadband technology.  Verizon Wireless, already capturing enormous sums of revenue from consumers forced into mandatory, expensive data plans when they upgrade to smartphones, will soon discover some serious limits on those plans.

The irony is, Verizon’s 4G upgrade will bring wireless broadband speeds to consumers they realistically cannot use for much more than web browsing, e-mail, and low-bandwidth apps.  Video downloads will burn through data limits imposed at the level AT&T introduced for its customers earlier this month.

Killian

Wall Street wants consumers re-educated to believe broadband can never be unlimited and must be treated as a precious, limited resource.

“The more bandwidth that you make available, the faster it will be consumed,” said Craig Moffett, analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein & Co. in New York. “From Verizon’s perspective, the last thing you want is for another generation of consumers to be conditioned to the idea that data is always going to be uncapped.”

Moffett’s clients hope that is true because usage limits will control costs and make customers think twice about using their data features on their phones.  Reduced demand equals increased revenue, just what Wall Street ordered.

Verizon Wireless has already set the stage for that increased revenue with mandatory add-on plans that boost customer bills, especially for those buying smartphones.  Although just 17 percent of Americans own smartphones today, Verizon predicts 70-80 percent of customers will upgrade to smartphones in the next few years.  That guarantees an “upgraded” bill as well.

Estimates about current average data usage from smartphone customers ranges from 200-600 megabytes per month, but that was before the arrival of video-friendly 4G network technology and the newest generation of phones optimized for video, which can easily consume ten times as much.

Verizon recognizes the “video threat,” and press reports suggest the limits will only be imposed on the 4G network.  Current generation 3G networks make viewing video tedious, a natural barrier for customers planning to “use too much.”

Verizon’s widely anticipated limits, almost certainly to be equivalent to AT&T’s with respect to allowances and pricing, may dampen enthusiasm for the iPhone on Verizon’s network.  Any existing AT&T customer is grandfathered into unlimited data plans for their smartphones.  If those customers leave AT&T, they will be forced to take a usage-capped data plan from Verizon with no looking back.  AT&T won’t provide unlimited plans for customers returning to their fold.

AT&T’s hurry to end unlimited wireless data plans for its customers, many of which are using popular Apple iPhone and iPad devices, signals AT&T’s overburdened network can no longer handle customer demand.  With the threat of even higher data usage from today’s release of the next generation iPhone, which will highlight bandwidth-intensive video conferencing and streaming, AT&T put the brakes on before new customers even activate their new phone.

With a penalization program in place, AT&T is sending a message to customers contemplating owning the newest generation of smartphones that its network is in no position to actually provide service to those devices, particularly bandwidth-heavy video streaming.

Customers who dare use these video streaming services face the prospect of paying an overlimit fee up to $15 for just 200 megabytes of data.  That’s a compelling reason to think twice about every high bandwidth application. And that may be exactly the point for a network that suffers from congestion problems in several major American cities.

AT&T has consistently ranked at the bottom of consumer surveys done by credible organizations like Consumer Reports, typically because of network capacity issues.  Yet the carrier also charges, on average, the highest out-the-door price among the four major carriers — an average of $134 a month for a two-phone plan with a data package.  That’s $20 higher than either T-Mobile or Sprint, eight dollars more than Verizon Wireless.

Ranked rock-bottom for voice quality, downright lousy for customer service, and only average for its other services, AT&T has simply not kept up.  Yet AT&T raked in more than 13 billion dollars in profits in wireless last year.  The New York Times reports AT&T has at least 33 million smartphone customers, many committed to AT&T’s required $30 data plan.  That represents more than $900 million dollars per month in revenue — $10.8 billion dollars annually, and that’s for data services alone.

Yet the percentage of the company’s investments committed to expanding its network, measured under AT&T’s 2009 annual financial report, has not kept up with its enormous iPhone customer base, on AT&T’s network since 2007.

Source: AT&T's 2009 Annual Report -- AT&T's capital investments in its network and service don't keep up with the enormous increase in its Apple iPhone customer base introduced to AT&T service. Last year showed a dramatic reduction in investment when compared with 2008. AT&T is not exactly plowing all of its wireless profits back into its wireless business.

According to TownHall Investment Research, between January 2006 and September 2009, AT&T spent about $21.6 billion, or $308 per subscriber, on its wireless network. During that same period, Verizon Wireless spent about $25.4 billion, or nearly $353 per subscriber.  Verizon has outspent AT&T each of the past three years on service upgrades without the revenue benefits a stampede of iPhone-owning customers brings.  That gap has now grown into a nearly $4 billion dollars difference between the two providers in infrastructure upgrades.

“This is the story of a wireless carrier that is determined not to invest enough to meet the demand of users, but has decided to manage its network as a scarce resource,” says Chris Riley, policy counsel for Free Press. “This is what Wall Street loves: Reduce your expenditures and increase your revenues.”

In a barely competitive wireless marketplace, AT&T can afford to force customers to pay dramatically higher data costs in the months and years ahead, especially for iPhone customers who must use AT&T if they want a subsidized phone.  Even if a customer leaves, AT&T will earn up to $325 in cancellation penalties.

That iPhone exclusivity agreement with Apple has been an unlimited goldmine for AT&T. AT&T’s wireless business drives AT&T’s overall profitability, generating 57 percent of its operating income according to Gerard Hallaren, director of research at TownHall.

AT&T’s days of unlimited wireless data plans for smartphone customers officially end June 7th when the company launches new wireless data plans that all come with usage caps attached:

• DataPlus $15 a month and limited to 200 megabytes  of data.  If you exceed it, your overlimit penalty is $15, good for an additional 200 megabytes.
• DataPro $25 a month gets you just 2 gigabytes of data.  The overlimit penalty for those exceeding it is $10 which buys an additional 1 gigabyte of usage.

AT&T Smartphone customers will also be able to add tethering under the $25 DataPro plan for an extra $20 per month, with DataPro’s usage allowance applied.

Current AT&T customers can remain on their current unlimited Smartphone data plan indefinitely, even if they change or upgrade phones according to AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel.  That concession probably helps AT&T preserve anticipated demand for next week’s new iPhone launch.  Without it, customer demand could be tempered by the realization a phone upgrade could cost you your $29.99 unlimited usage plan.  If you were considering getting an AT&T phone with unlimited data, you have until June 6th to sign up for service under that plan.  After that date, you’re out of luck indefinitely.

AT&T is promoting the end of unlimited wireless broadband as a benefit to customers, claiming that 98 percent of its Smartphone customers use on average less than 2GB of data per month.  But that represents today’s usage.  AT&T’s decision to eliminate an unlimited option they claim 98 percent of their customers never exceeded would be curious without understanding the next generation of Smartphones will provide dramatic improvements in high bandwidth video streaming that will dramatically start eating into those low usage allowances.  The company’s next generation of faster wireless broadband will also include low limit plans, which makes them untenable as a home broadband replacement for all but the most casual users.

For new iPad customers, the $25 per month 2 GB plan will replace the existing $29.99 unlimited plan. iPad customers will continue to pre-pay for their wireless data plan and no contract is required. Existing iPad customers who have the $29.99 per month unlimited plan can keep that plan or switch to the new $25 per month plan with 2 GB of data.

AT&T offers up the common practice of boasting about how much you can do with a usage-limited account, based on the thousands of e-mails you'll never send, the 500 pictures you'll never take, or the 20 - one minute YouTube clips you'll never watch. Notice they never seem to include figures for streaming multimedia applications like music, movies, and TV shows or playing more bandwidth-intensive games. To do so would only upset customers further.

AT&T says customers can continue to use unlimited amounts of data when they access it over the company’s Wi-Fi network hotspots.

Wall Street is happy with AT&T’s elimination of unlimited plans, sensing higher profits and reduced costs will follow.

“The new plans appear well designed to reduce undue network stresses,” Craig Moffett, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein told The Wall Street Journal.

Analyst Philip Cusick at Macquarie Securities also told the Journal AT&T may see lower growth in data revenue in the short term as a result of the new changes, but will gain leverage over the heaviest data users, improving its ability to manage its network and charge for capacity. Tiered plans may also pull more customers into data plans, he said.

But because current customers can choose to remain on the grandfathered unlimited plan, existing heavy data users accused of chewing up AT&T’s wireless network can continue to do so as long as they remain customers.  AT&T will only be capping future customers who sign up on or after June 7th.

For those outraged by AT&T’s decision, fleeing to Verizon Wireless for unlimited data may not be an option for too much longer either.

Verizon Wireless Chief Executive Lowell McAdam indicated in an interview with the Journal last month that he, too, is looking at pricing based on use.

“The old model of one price plan per device is going to fall away,” McAdam told the newspaper, adding that he expects carriers to take an approach that targets a “bucket of megabytes.”

One company that doesn’t plan to end an all-you-can-eat wireless data buffet is Sprint, which now sees its unlimited data plan as a potential marketing asset.

A Sprint spokesperson spoke the words you were already thinking:

“We’re giving customers a better value. With data usage growing, customers don’t want to worry about going over their limits.”

Some customers upset that AT&T only sold an unlimited plan welcomed the lower cost options because they didn’t spend a lot of time using the data features of their phones, but several wondered why the company didn’t simply introduce lower cost options -and- leave the unlimited plan in place for those who wanted it.

Overall, AT&T is getting an earful from angry customers over the announcement — even those who don’t exceed 2GB per month.  They sense greed and overcharging.   A sampling:

If 3% are using data “a lot” now, then in another two years, it’ll be 15% and then 60%. Simply put, this is gouging customers, where pricing is decided by dudes in a board room looking at charts and graphs and sales numbers, figuring out how to gouge people for maximum profit.

Obviously AT&T is killing the unlimited plan to cut down on usage and to raise their profits. I also believe it is heavy handed to eliminate the unlimited access plan. If anything, offer other plans and raise the price of the unlimited plan. It will be interesting to see of the other players follow suit and also kill their unlimited plans (can you say “price fixing”? Sure you can!).

AT&T is always full of good ideas, like that Microcell thing. Hey, we can’t give you good service you paid for, so we are going to ask you for more money for this piece of equipment to supplement the service you are not getting.

Just another greedy ploy to make more money. They are selling air. The charges are ridiculous and this is one industry that should be under government control.

My spouse and I pay half of what AT&T would charge us for excellent Palm smartphones on Sprint. We also get turn-by-turn GPS included–something AT&T AND Verizon both charge extra for. Sprint’s network is top-notch. I can’t fathom why people continue to waste money on Verizon and AT&T.

If you’ve got a smartphone or you tether your computer, you really have no idea how much bandwidth your device is consuming. Even worse (or better if you are the phone company) customers can’t control the bandwidth that their devices consume. How often does your email client check for new messages? Can you even stop your computer from downloading a security update? What about that last application you installed, can you stop it from calling home every time you launch it? Do you even know that it does track and report your usage? That’s a huge difference between phone services and data services. You KNOW when you’ve dialed a number and talked for 10 minutes. You can’t control all the data consuming applications and services on your devices… and trying to bill customers for something that they can’t control the usage or cost must be illegal. Surely someone will address this problem soon. Surely.

[flv width=”576″ height=”344″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNN ATT Goodbye to unlimited data 6-2-10.flv[/flv]

CNN Money reports on AT&T saying goodbye to unlimited data plans for iPhones and iPads.  (1 minute)

Woe to those who forget to sign up for a wireless data plan from Verizon Wireless.

The cell phone provider recently sent a $16,000 bill to one Hot Springs, Arkansas family for wireless data usage racked up on a daughter’s phone the family didn’t cover with a wireless data plan.

Chris Brown couldn’t believe his eyes when he opened his phone bill online.

“The first thing I think of is, this thing costs more than my truck.  It cost more than a house payment, I couldn’t fathom it, it’s mind-blowing,” Brown told KLRT-TV.

This isn’t the first time this has happened.  A month earlier, the Brown family was billed $3,000 for similar usage and the family asked Verizon Wireless to shut off access to data services on the affected phone, but the charges kept on coming anyway.

Brown says once he got to look at the phone usage online, he saw that the phone was connected to the Internet when the family didn’t even know it.

Verizon Wireless offers tips to customers with children:

• Limit the times of day they’re allowed to make calls.

• Keep your kids from getting onto your own phone’s Internet by setting up a password.

• If you have a limited plan, you will get an alert and have to give approval before you exceed your number of kilobytes or megabytes for the month.

Of course, had Verizon Wireless followed through on what Brown asked for — shutting data access off altogether, none of this would have ever happened.

Other Little Rock customers, especially those forced to move from Alltel to Verizon Wireless, are running into similar experiences.

Among the horror stories:

“My son had the same problem. He was told he had unlimited internet usage and then received a bill for more than $7,000. Verizon had recorded a phone call from my son to customer service and that was the only thing that saved him. But it took more than 4 months and his phone service being disconnected twice before the situation was resolved.”

“I’m not a bit surprised at that ridiculous bill from Verizon! I had the same problem for months last year, to the point that I had to put unlimited texting on both my grandsons’ phones. Then to top that off, we got a bill that had goo-gobs of texting billed to my husband’s phone (to the tune of $9.30), which is rarely used at all. But, this is the killer–all the texts received on his phone were from Verizon, all 62 of them! As soon as my contract is up with them, I will be switching. All the time we had Alltel we never had any problems. The problems started as soon as Verizon took over.”

“I’m not one bit surprised by the ridiculous phone bill that the Hot Springs family received. I also received my first month’s bill from Verizon last year for over $1500. I almost had a heart attack. Verizon lowered the bill, but two months later, even though we carefully monitored the air time, we went over by four minutes and they charged me an additional $90. That was it for Verizon. They are a bunch of crooks. I hooked up to my local phone carrier for $34 a month and I haven’t had one problem since. Verizon should be investigated.”

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KLRT Little Rock Hot Springs family gets $16,000 cell phone bill 3-3-10.flv[/flv]

KLRT-TV in Little Rock reports on the Hot Springs family that got a $16,000 surprise bill from Verizon Wireless.  (3 minutes)