A new report from Frost & Sullivan (pricey subscription required) warns wireless broadband providers may have to implement limits on the amount of data consumed by customers, a surprising result considering the vast majority of carriers already do.

The business research and consulting firm says some wireless carriers are struggling to balance the consumption they encouraged with the physical capacity of their networks.  Citing AT&T’s iPhone and its data-rich App Store, which lets consumers download data applications to run on their phone, the research shows data consumption has increased dramatically as consumers integrate smartphones into their daily lives.

“We all knew as an industry that mobile data would grow, and we saw these growth curves that were a 45-degree angle upward,” said James Brehm, senior consultant at Frost & Sullivan. “But the true growth of the iPhone, when you chart it, looks more like a hockey stick.”

The demand for data is pressuring the industry to invest additional money for upgrades, and Wall Street isn’t happy with a trend that guarantees expensive upgrades will be required to meet customer demand — upgrades that would come straight out of revenue, unless a dramatic shift takes place towards consumption-based billing.

“You’re going to see some push back from consumers, but AT&T’s not going to be the only one that’s going to have to do this,” Brehm said. “Every service provider out there is going to ultimately change the way mobile data is consumed and priced over the next few years.”

The argument essentially comes down to how much revenue wireless carriers will be forced to invest in their networks, and how much noise they will hear from investors for doing so.  Wall Street prefers customers pay the costs for upgrades by increasing prices for data service, which would assure revenue expectations remain stable.  Customers demand wireless carriers invest some of their profits back into their networks to improve service and in return enjoy customer loyalty and any revenue earned from selling additional services.

Some carriers are choosing to stay out of the fight, claiming they already have sufficient capacity to serve customers.  Besides, most of them already have usage limits on their services, traditionally set at a maximum of 5GB of consumption per month.

T-Mobile believes it already has enough capacity to meet the growing demand from data-hungry smartphones.  It has invested in new technology that claims to triple current 3G speeds and works with current 3G phones,  meaning customers don’t have to buy a new phone to enjoy the faster speeds.

Sprint is constructing its 4G network and already sells service in several cities through Clearwire.  Sprint claims unlike some of its competitors, it intends to stay ahead of the growth curve by investing now in additional spectrum and technology to manage its networks.  Sprint claims it has plenty of room to expand capacity.

Verizon Wireless says it has more consistently upgraded its network over the past decade than any other carrier, and is well prepared to accommodate even the iPhone.

“We have put things in place already,” Verizon Wireless Chief Technology Officer Anthony Melone tells Business Week. “We are prepared to support that traffic.”  Next year, the nation’s largest wireless carrier will be rolling out 4G upgrades in America’s 30 largest cities, although primarily for mobile broadband service accessed through a mobile broadband dongle.

Verizon already limits consumption on its wireless plans to a maximum of 5GB per month, with overlimit penalties for those that exceed it.

Most of the attention remains focused on AT&T and the iPhone, because the data plan provided for iPhone customers does not carry a specified limit.

Vipin Jain, chief executive of Retrevo, a consumer electronics shopping Web site told the Chicago Tribune, “As soon as you put a cap (on data usage), there’s going to be a backlash.”

So what keeps wireless providers from upgrading their networks and keeping consumption billing and usage caps away?

In addition to pressure from Wall Street, another Frost & Sullivan report points to an unsettled marketplace.  The progression towards 4G has been stalled because of the economic downturn, the report says.

Frost & Sullivan ICT Program Manager Luke Thomas says carriers are still waiting for consensus on several issues, including support for voice and SMS and a harmonized frequency band for 4G traffic.  Thomas also says many cell towers have limited capacity to support additional traffic.  A tower can deliver only as much data as its connection back to the provider’s network can handle.  Once the “backhaul” link is saturated, calls start to drop and data speed slows.  Many still rely on dedicated, relatively slow copper wire circuits, although fiber optic links are becoming increasingly common.

Thomas also believes carriers will need additional spectrum, a minimum of 20MHz, to make 4G upgrades worthwhile.

Without all of these factors, Thomas believes the potential return on investment won’t be high enough to justify moving forward any time soon.

The Novatel USB760, branded for Verizon Wireless

Verizon Wireless today announced the introduction of a prepaid wireless broadband option for customers who don’t want to pay $60 for 5 gigabytes of usage, with a two year contract.  Prepaid Mobile Broadband will be available starting November 15th in Verizon Wireless stores, sold as a “starter pack,” for $129.99, which includes a Novatel USB760 modem and a brochure showing different pricing options for the service.

Both Verizon and Virgin Mobile’s prepaid broadband services use the same USB760 modem, but that’s where the comparison ends.

Verizon Wireless expects prepaid customers to pay premium pricing for the convenience of having wireless broadband access without a contract on Verizon’s expansive 3G network.  Customers have three options:

• Daily Access: $15/day for 75MB
• Weekly Access: $30/week for 250MB
• Monthly Access: $50/month for 500MB

Unused allowances expire at the end of each term.  Verizon includes a “usage chart” with low ball estimates of what customers can do on each respective prepaid plan:

Data Type             Daily         Weekly       Monthly

E-mail (1 text page)  25,600        85,300       170,000
Typical Web page         500         1,700         3,400
Low-resolution photos    150           500         1,000

Don’t even think about streaming video at these prices. Virgin Mobile’s prepaid wireless broadband service was expensive until Verizon Wireless came around. Virgin Mobile charges $10 for 100 MB for 10 days, $20 for 250 MB per month, $40 for 600 MB and $60 for 1 GB.  Cricket also sells a prepaid wireless broadband plan for $40 a month for up to 5GB of usage, but has dramatically less coverage.

These plans are typically designed for occasional use only.  Those with regular on-the-go wireless broadband needs will do better under a contract plan.

Ralph de la Vega, CEO of AT&T Mobility

AT&T Mobility has news for its customers: “You’ll be hearing something from us in the near future,” says AT&T Mobility CEO Ralph de la Vega.  He was speaking about an end to “unlimited” usage of its wireless network.  Stop the Cap! reader Jeremy learned about it and sent word our way.

Of course, AT&T has always reserved the right to impose overlimit fees or terminate accounts that exceed 5 gigabytes per month, but most of the horror stories about enormous bills come from consumers using AT&T’s wireless broadband service on a computer.  For iPhone users, who are force-fed a mandatory $30 monthly “unlimited” data plan, their wireless usage has not been subjected to an AT&T crackdown for whatever they consider “excessive” that month.

But that is likely to change, and soon.  De la Vega warned listeners on a conference call held this week that AT&T’s considerations of ways to deal with extreme bandwidth users are “all in flux, but we will come up with ways that mitigate the [network] impact we’ve seen by a small number of customers who are driving inordinate usage.”

The company has been holding focus groups about Internet Overcharging schemes, trying to conjure up a public relations message that consumers will be duped into believing is fair.  They’ve tested everything from meal scenarios to toll roadways, comparing “heavy users” with 18 wheelers and ordinary light users with Mini Coopers, asking participants if they felt it was fair “for the truckers to pay more?”  One of our readers clandestinely participated in one of these, and managed to debunk their nonsense over a free lunch, with consumers incensed to discover the tolls they are charging are ludicrously profitable even at current rates.

When facts about Internet Overcharging are revealed, it’s not a question of who should pay more — it’s a demand to know why everyone isn’t paying less -and- why companies like AT&T aren’t investing a greater percentage of their fat profits in expanding their network.

As I’ve written on several previous occasions, it comes as no surprise to me that some companies in the broadband industry have been looking for an excuse to throw all of our “favorite” Internet Overcharging schemes on customers — usage allowances, overlimit fees and penalties, or just throttling your connection to dial-up speeds.  As I predicted, some will try an “either/or” scam on consumers, telling them they are “forced” to impose these kinds of profit grabs because the government is demanding Net Neutrality.  One has absolutely nothing to do with the other of course, but it’s a convenient excuse to help rally consumers against Net Neutrality now, and impose higher pricing on consumers anyway.  It is crucial that consumers do not fall for this ploy.  There is no fairness in being overcharged for Internet access, such plans never truly provide “only paying for what you use” pricing, and no one should be willing to give up one for the other.  In Canada, they ended up with no Net Neutrality -and- Internet Overcharging schemes, precisely what would happen here.

As has always been the case, AT&T blames a “small percentage” of their users for consuming massive amounts of bandwidth.  Earlier this summer it was “three percent of Smartphone users use 40% of AT&T’s wireless network.”  The us vs. them mentality is designed to divide consumers into finger pointing camps blaming their neighbors for “the problem” instead of asking pointed questions of the carrier making the claim.  Some questions are:

1. Exactly how much data do those “heavy Smartphone users” consume?
2. What is AT&T’s cost per megabyte/gigabyte to deliver that data to consumers?
3. Why does AT&T mandate iPhone customers purchase an “unlimited” data plan and then complain when customers utilize what they are paying for?
4. Will AT&T significantly reduce pricing for mandatory data plan customers, or simply throw a usage allowance on existing accounts and expect consumers to pay the same?
5. What percentage of AT&T’s profits are spent on their network and its expansion, and has that amount as a percentage increased or decreased in the last five years?
6. If AT&T is suffering from smartphone congestion, why continue an exclusive deal for the iPhone, which AT&T claims contributes to a significant amount of that congestion?
7. Why does AT&T marketing claim their wireless broadband plans are “unlimited” when, in fact, they are limited to 5 gigabytes of usage per month?

Jack Gold, an analyst at J. Gold Associates, told Computerworld carriers have a legitimate issue in considering an “overage charge,” for users who surpass a certain number of gigabytes of data per month.

“People will complain about an overage charge,” Gold said. “I guarantee complaints, but there’s no other way to deal with it short of building out more networks to give people the bandwidth they crave. There really are bandwidth hogs. You have 5% of the users taking up 90% of the bandwidth sometimes.”

Gold said he agrees with net neutrality rules that allow users to reach any Web site on the Internet, but argued that carriers can’t provide unlimited bandwidth to all users. Doing so “means everybody else is limited … The AT&Ts and Verizons have a legitimate point.”

Of course, Gold is in the business of representing business interests, not consumers.  Does Gold have direct evidence of his numbers, or does he simply repeat what he has heard carriers tell him?  Since consumers cannot easily find truly unlimited mobile broadband accounts in the American wireless industry today, de la Vega’s urgent statements about imposing limits on customers must target iPhone and other smartphone users specifically, because those are the only accounts AT&T hasn’t held hard to their 5GB usage cap.

Mechanicsburg is located in Bland County, Virginia

Sunday was an exciting day for the nearly 200 residents of rural Mechanicsburg, a small community in southwest Virginia.  It was launch day for the community’s new wireless “broadband” service, which turned the community into one large hot-spot, bringing Internet access to the community at speeds beyond dial-up.

The service expands on a Wireless ISP (WISP) network already serving the nearby communities of Rocky Gap and Bastian, and was funded by a broadband grant, with assistance from Rep. Rick Boucher (D-Virginia).

Residents can subscribe to the service, transmitted from an antenna tower located in each community, or visit the local community center, which will have computers available for Internet use.

While the service represents an improvement over dial-up, it’s not exactly 21st century broadband.

The service, provided by Trificient Broadband Technologies, uses Frequency Hopping Spread Spectrum technology in the unlicensed 900MHz, 2.4 and 5.8GHz bands (also used by consumer wireless phones and wireless routers).

Last fall, Trificient owner Jim Ingram told SWVA Today that he defined broadband at anything above 256kbps.  Bland County’s BCNet WISP service provides 512kbps service for $27.95 per month with an annual contract and $99 installation fee.  The Federal Communications Commission currently defines broadband service at speeds of 768kbps or faster.

Providing wireless Internet service in the hilly terrain of southwestern Virginia can be challenging.  The antennas delivering the service have been mounted on antenna towers to be above nearby obstructions, and Ingram told the newspaper every customer gets an on-site survey to determine whether they can receive the service.  If they are within 10 miles of the antenna and have a reasonably clear signal, a small antenna is mounted on the customer’s home and service can begin.

The company offers faster service for a higher price, assuming the customer is close enough to the transmitter to be able to obtain higher speeds.

For rural customers with no option for cable television or DSL service, wireless service at these speeds can provide basic connectivity for e-mail and web page access, but utilizing the Internet’s higher bandwidth services like video and other streaming media can prove challenging.

[flv width=”320″ height=”240″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WVVA Bluefield Mechanicsburg VA Gets Wireless Broadband 10-12-09.flv[/flv]

WVVA-TV Bluefield/Beckley, West Virginia covers the October 11th launch day in Mechanicsburg as wireless Internet service begins for nearly 200 residents in rural Virginia. [2 minutes]

An avalanche of iPhones is to blame for AT&T's wireless problems, according to a Slate columnist

Telecommunications companies love people like Farhad Manjoo.  He’s a technology columnist for Slate, and he’s concerned with the congestion on AT&T’s wireless network caused by Apple iPhone owners using their phones ‘too much and ruining AT&T’s service for everyone else.’  Manjoo has a solution — do away with AT&T’s flat data pricing for the iPhone and implement a $10 price increase for any customer exceeding 400 megabytes of usage per month. For those using less than 400 megabytes, he advocates for a “pay for what you use” billing model.  Will AT&T adopt true consumption billing, a usage cap, or just another $10 price increase?  History suggests the latter two are most likely.

Stop the Cap! reader Mary drew our attention to Manjoo’s piece, which predictably has been carried through the streets by cheering astroturf websites connected with the telecommunications industry who just love the prospect of consumers paying more money.  They’ve called the organizations that work to fight against such unfair Internet Overcharging schemes “neo-Marxist,” ignoring the fact the overwhelming majority of consumers oppose metered broadband service and still don’t know the words to ‘The Internationale.’

Manjoo’s description of the problem itself has problems.

His argument is based on the premise that the Apple iPhone is virtually a menace on AT&T’s network.  He blames the phone for AT&T customers having trouble getting their calls through or for slow speeds on AT&T’s data network.

Every iPhone/AT&T customer must deal with the consequences of a slowed-down wireless network. Not every customer, though, is equally responsible for the slowdown. At the moment, AT&T charges $30 a month for unlimited mobile Internet access on the iPhone. That means a customer who uses 1 MB a month pays the same amount as someone who uses 1,000 MB. I’ve got a better plan—one that superusers won’t like but that will result in better service, and perhaps lower bills, for iPhone owners: AT&T should kill the all-you-can-eat model and start charging people for how much bandwidth they use.

How would my plan work? I propose charging $10 a month for each 100 MB you upload or download on your phone, with a maximum of $40 per month. In other words, people who use 400 MB or more per month will pay $40 for their plan, or $10 more than they pay now. Everybody else will pay their current rate—or less, as little as $10 a month. To summarize: If you don’t use your iPhone very much, your current monthly rates will go down; if you use it a lot, your rates will increase. (Of course, only your usage of AT&T’s cellular network would count toward your plan; what you do on Wi-Fi wouldn’t matter.)

First, and perhaps most importantly, AT&T not only voluntarily, but enthusiastically sought an exclusive arrangement with Apple to sell the iPhone.  For the majority of Americans, using an iPhone means using AT&T as their wireless carrier.  If AT&T cannot handle the customer demand (and the enormous revenue it earns from them), perhaps it’s time to end the exclusivity arrangement and spread the iPhone experience to other wireless networks in the United States.  I have not seen any wireless provider fearing the day the iPhone will be available for them to sell to customers.  Indeed, the only fear comes from AT&T pondering what happens when their exclusivity deal ends.

Second, problems with voice calling and dropped calls go well beyond iPhone owners ‘using too much data.’  It’s caused by less robust coverage and insufficient capacity at cell tower sites.  AT&T added millions of new customers from iPhone sales, but didn’t expand their network at the required pace to serve those new customers.  A number of consumers complaining about AT&T service not only mention dropped calls, but also inadequate coverage and ‘fewer bars in more places.’  That has nothing to do with iPhone users.  Congestion can cause slow speeds on data networks, but poor reception can create the same problems.

Third, the salvation of data network congestion is not overcharging consumers for service plans.  The answer comes from investing some of the $1,000+ AT&T earns annually from the average iPhone customer back into their network.  To be sure, wireless networks will have more complicated capacity issues than wired networks do, but higher pricing models for wireless service already take this into account.

Business Week covered AT&T’s upgrade complications in an article on August 23rd:

Many of AT&T’s 60,000 cell towers need to be upgraded. That could cost billions of dollars, and AT&T has kept a lid on capital spending during the recession—though it has made spending shifts to accommodate skyrocketing iPhone traffic. Even if the funds were available now, the process could take years due to the hassle and time needed to win approval to erect new towers and to dig the ditches that hold fiber-optic lines capable of delivering data. And time is ticking. All carriers are moving to a much faster network standard called LTE that will begin being deployed in 2011. Once that transition has occurred, the telecom giant will be on a more level playing field.

And there are limits to how fast AT&T can move. While it may take only a few weeks to deploy new-fangled wireless gear in a city’s cell towers, techies could spend months tilting antennas at the proper angle to make sure every square foot is covered.

Karl Bode at Broadband Reports also points out a good deal of the iPhone’s data traffic never touches AT&T’s wireless network and he debunked a piece in The Wall Street Journal that proposed some of the same kinds of pricing and policy changes Manjoo suggests:

iPhone users are using Wi-Fi 42% of the time and the $30 price point is already a $10 bump from the first generation iPhone. The Journal also ignores the absolutely staggering profits from SMS/MMS, and the fact that AT&T posted a net income of $3.1 billion for just the first three months of the year. That’s even after the network upgrades the Journal just got done telling us make unlimited data untenable.

Sanford Bernstein’s Craig Moffett has been making the rounds lately complaining that a wireless apocalypse is afoot, telling any journalist who’ll listen that the wireless market is “collapsing” and/or “grinding to a halt.” Why? Because as new subscriber growth slows and the market saturates, incredible profits for carriers like AT&T and Verizon Wireless may soon be downgraded to only somewhat incredible. Carriers may soon have to start competing more heavily on pricing, driving stock prices down. That’s great for you, but crappy for Moffett’s clients.

You’ll note that neither the Journal nor Moffett provide a new business model to replace the $30 unlimited plan, but the intentions are pretty clear if you’ve been playing along at home. As on the terrestrial broadband front, investors see pure per-byte billing as the solution to all of their future problems, as it lets carriers charge more money for the same or less product (ask Time Warner Cable). Of course as with Mr. Moffett’s opinions on network upgrades, what’s best for Mr. Moffett quite often isn’t what’s best for consumers.

If AT&T doesn’t have the financial capacity or willingness to appropriately grow their network, inevitably customers will take their wireless business elsewhere, and perhaps Apple will see the wisdom of not giving the company exclusivity rights any longer.

Manjoo’s proposals (except the $10 rate increase, which they’ll love) would almost certainly never make it beyond the discussion stage.  A pricing model that automatically places consumers using little data into a less expensive price tier, or relies on a true consumption “pay for exactly what you use” pricing model would cannibalize AT&T’s revenue.  Past Internet Overcharging pricing has never been about saving customers money — they just charge more to designated “heavy users” for the exact same level of service.  Need more money?  Redefine what constitutes a “heavy user” or just wait a year when today’s data piggies are tomorrow’s average users.  Now they can all pay more.

The average iPhone user already pays a premium for their AT&T iPhone experience — an average $90 a month for a combined mandatory voice and data plan — costs higher than those paid by other AT&T customers.  AT&T accounted for the anticipated data usage of the iPhone in setting the pricing for monthly service.

The biggest data consumers aren’t smartphone or iPhone users. That designation belongs to laptop or netbook owners using wireless mobile networks for connectivity.  Those plans universally are usage capped at 5 gigabytes per month, far higher than the 400 megabyte cap Manjoo proposes.  If AT&T felt individual iPhone customers were the real issue, they would have already usage capped the iPhone data plan.  Instead, they just increased the price, ostensibly to invest the difference in expanding their network.

Perhaps at twice the price, everything would be nice.

Manjoo admits AT&T does not release exact usage numbers, but it’s obvious a phone equipped to run any number of add-on applications that the iPhone can will use more data than a cumbersome phone forcing customers to browse using a number keypad.  That in and of itself does not mean iPhone users are “data hogs.”  In reality, 400 megabytes of usage a month on a network also handling wireless broadband customers with a 5 gigabyte cap is a pittance.  That’s 10 times less than a customer can use on an AT&T wireless broadband-equipped netbook, and still be under their monthly allowance.

Here’s a better idea: end the monopoly AT&T has on the iPhone in the United States. That would immediately do a lot more for AT&T customers, as the so-called “data hogs” that hate AT&T flee off their network.

Manjoo’s alternatives are a “pay $10 more” solution that won’t save consumers money and “pay exactly for what you use” plan that AT&T will never accept.

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