Craig Moffett, a Wall Street analyst working for Sanford Bernstein, just loves Verizon Wireless’ new calling plans, which he believes will help Verizon grow profits when most Americans already have a cell phone.

Verizon’s move “is the most profound change to pricing the telecom industry has seen in twenty years,” Moffett told the Associated Press.

Bernstein believes that cell phone companies can keep boosting the all-important “average revenue per user,” or ARPU, by shifting price hikes for services consumers are now using the most. That means wireless data which Bernstein sees as a growth industry. In contrast, customers are using their phones less than ever for making phone calls and sending text messages.

Verizon Wireless CEO Lowell McAdam agrees, telling an investor conference customers will end up paying more money to Verizon than ever before.

Moffett

“Is it going to cost them more money? Yeah, but it will probably shift their wallet spend from things they do individually into a bucket of gigabytes,” McAdam said. “The relationship will change. This will be something much more ingrained in their life as opposed to something that’s attached to their hip.”

Verizon’s “Share Everything” may become ingrained in customers’ wallets when it launches June 28, eliminating voice minute and text message allowances but increasing pricing for data. The cheapest smartphone plan will now run $90 a month. For customers who already pay for unlimited voice minutes and texting and avoid using too much wireless data, the new price will be lower than current Verizon plans. But for those who traditionally choose a calling minutes allowance and send a limited number of text messages, prices under the new plan will be going up by $10-20 a month.

Verizon also hopes to capture an increasing share of wireless data for portable devices. Consumers have typically avoided 3G/4G-capable add-ons for devices in favor of Wi-Fi-only, to avoid the separate data plans that are usually required. Verizon hopes customers will consider spending more on wireless network-capable tablets and laptops that can be added to their existing Verizon accounts. Adding a tablet will cost an extra $10 a month, $20 for a portable 3G/4G wireless modem for a laptop. Data usage will be shared from their existing data plan.

Moffett expects the new plan from Verizon, and a forthcoming one expected from AT&T, to solidify both companies’ dominance in the wireless market.

“In a household with two or three AT&T or Verizon devices — say, a smartphone and a tablet or two, and one device from T-Mobile or Sprint. Sprint doesn’t stand a chance,” Moffett said.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Verizon Wireless Plans 6-12-12.flv[/flv]

CNBC talks with Public Knowledge’s Michael Weinberg about the “consumer benefits” of Verizon’s new wireless plans, which Weinberg suggests are few and fleeting.  (3 minutes)

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Is Wi-Fi Dead 6-12-12.flv[/flv]

CNBC wonders if Wi-Fi is dead as Verizon and AT&T encourage customers to use 3G/4G wireless data instead of more local Wi-Fi networks.  (3 minutes)

Verizon customers can expect to pay more for the company’s fiber to the home service, FiOS, even as promised higher speeds arrive.

Most customers off contract can expect to pay $10-15 more a month under the new pricing regime, or cut back on selected television channels to keep their price the same. Verizon customers currently on a promotional offer will not see any price changes until their promotion expires.

Wall Street analysts call Verizon’s rate hikes a return to “pricing rationality.” The phone company has engaged in years of aggressive pricing, promotions, and rebate offers, especially in the northeast. At one point, Verizon was offering New York-area customers up to $500 in rebates when signing up for a triple play Verizon FiOS package. As Verizon pulls back from aggressive promotions, some analysts predict cable competitors Time Warner Cable and Cablevision will be able to resume more typical rate increases common before Verizon FiOS launched. Cablevision previously announced it would not increase rates during 2012, mostly in response to Verizon’s aggressive pricing.

Verizon has significantly boosted speeds on most of its broadband offerings, with the exception of its standard entry-level 15/5Mbps package, which remains unchanged. Verizon is hoping customers will find that entry level package less and less attractive and be amenable to upgrading to faster speed service at a higher price.

“We’re expecting that 80 percent of customers will want more than 15 megabits per second,” Arturo Picicci, Verizon’s director of product management told Reuters.

Under Verizon’s new pricing, triple play customers with unlimited calling, 15/5Mbps broadband, and 290 television channels pay $109.99. The next step up, for $15 more a month, would upgrade broadband to 50/25Mbps service.

Verizon is also shaming New York area cable operators with speed increases that Time Warner and Cablevision currently cannot match.

The company’s 150/65Mbps service is now priced at $99.99 a month, down from $209.99. Customers in some areas can also sign up for 300/65Mbps service for as low as $204.99 with a two-year contract.

In contrast, Comcast charges $200 a month for 105Mbps, Cablevision prices its 101Mbps service at $104.95 a month.

A consumer firestorm is growing over Verizon Wireless new service plans.

As a growing firestorm over Verizon Wireless’ newly-announced plans continued today as some on Wall Street are becoming convinced Verizon has bungled the case for their new “Share Everything” concept.

Industry analyst Rob Enderle told ComputerWorld that Verizon’s handling of their pricing changes “is similar to the Netflix mistake last year that almost sunk that company.” Enderle believes the changes Verizon wants to force on the wireless market are potentially too radical to be embraced within the next two weeks, when Verizon’s new rate plans become active.

Verizon Wireless has been trying to quell the increasing criticism from consumers by reminding them they will not be forced to move to the new plans from an existing account.

“We’re allowing the existing customer base to have a choice; we’re not forcing anyone to more to new plans,” said Steve Mesnick, head of marketing for Verizon Wireless. “I take exception to [suggestions] of people leaving Verizon,” he said.

While Mesnick is correct Verizon will not force customers to choose new plans on June 28, the company will require existing grandfathered data customers to abandon unlimited data when they renew their Verizon contract or upgrade to a new discounted device.

Verizon claims it interviewed 50,000 customers before implementing the new plans and believe they will be embraced by the majority of Verizon customers.

Verizon Wireless spokeswoman Brenda Raney followed a different approach, pretending consumer complaints don’t exist: “We are very pleased with the response to our announcement as customers begin to understand how the new Share Everything Plans will save them money or provide them with more value for the same money they are paying today.”

Meanwhile, customers who have no intention of either forfeiting the unlimited data plan they have grandfathered on their account or who refuse to pay Verizon’s new asking price are busily upgrading their phones and signing new two-year contracts before June 28, buying an additional two years of unlimited data. Many others claim to be leaving, often for Sprint, which continues to offer unlimited data, or a prepaid provider.

Customers are worried about losing their grandfathered unlimited data plans.

Verizon and AT&T have a combined 38 percent of customers on grandfathered unlimited data plans and most are insistent on keeping them. News that customers could retain unlimited data by forfeiting the wireless carrier’s subsidy for new phones has gone over like a lead balloon, especially with price tags of $699 or more for popular new smartphones.

“The importance of this client base cannot be overstated–unlimited mobile data plan users are some of the most valuable subscribers in the industry,” Iain Gillott, president and founder of iGR, told Fierce Wireless. “Our research shows that these two carriers need to be very careful to offer a migration plan to replace the grandfathered unlimited plans that provides the data service, value and recognition that meets these valuable consumers’ needs.”

With popular new smartphones like the iPhone becoming available on no-frills prepaid carriers like Cricket, wireless carriers are at risk of subscriber defections.

Despite consumer discontent, Wall Street has supported the income-enhancing new wireless plans and is embracing the increased fees Verizon will likely earn as data demand rises.

While cell phone companies tell you the only fair way to price wireless data is to charge you for what you use, these same companies are now considering how to reverse that argument and force you to buy more expensive “unlimited voice calling” plans you may not want or need.

The Wall Street Journal reports that AT&T is the most vocal proponent of ditching “tiered minute plans” for voice calls, which let consumers pick cheaper plans with fewer calling minutes. With Americans talking less and less on their cell phones, customers have been downgrading voice plans to less expensive options.

Industry trade group CTIA-The Wireless Association notes the average cell phone call dropped from 3.03 minutes in 2006 to just 1.78 minutes in 2011. Customers who rely entirely on their cell phone and no longer have a landline used to talk an average of 826 minutes per month in 2007.  Last year, that number dropped to 681 minutes, according to CTIA.

Verizon Wireless sells customers 900 minutes for $59.99. But the company does not count minutes used during nights and weekends or when placing/receiving calls to or from other Verizon Wireless phones. If a customer now talking less still pays $60 for a 900 minute plan, they could shave $20 a month off their monthly bill if they kept their daytime calling to 450 minutes a month. Many do. In fact, younger customers use their smartphones for talking even less, with some not even reaching one hour of voice calling a month.

Verizon's cattle call? Will the company herd all of its wireless customers to unlimited voice calling at a higher price?

Given the option to downgrade, customers are jumping at the chance. With voice revenue declining 2-4% in the first quarter, Wall Street has been pressuring carriers to act.

The answer that works for them, although probably not for you, is forcing all customers to purchase an unlimited voice calling plan at contract renewal time. At today’s prices, that could add an extra $30 a month for customers used to paying $40 for a basic 450-minute calling plan.

“The industry’s definitely moving towards unlimited,” AT&T Mobility Chief Executive Ralph de la Vega said in a recent interview. “Especially as more people adopt smartphones that have voice capabilities over the Internet, segmented voice plans will become less relevant.”

Ironically, cell phone companies that have spent the last year or two defending the end of unlimited mobile data as “fair” because customers can “choose exactly the plan they need,” are adopting a completely different strategy to push for unlimited voice calling.

“It’s more important to offer a complete solution to consumers which is really, truly unlimited,” said T-Mobile USA Chief Executive Philipp Humm in a recent interview. “The new world is a completely unlimited, worry-free world.”

Sprint agrees, although its insistence on preserving an unlimited data experience for its customers protects the company from charges of hypocrisy.

Fared Adib, head of product development for Sprint, told the Journal eliminating tiered voice options makes sense because it simplifies choices for customers. “People like the freedom of not having to worry about either data or voice,” he said.

No cell phone company would go on the record as the first to discard tiered voice plans, but AT&T led the way to ending unlimited data, and the company is increasingly vocal about ending tiered voice calling as well.

At current prices, consumers could pay substantially higher cell phone bills as a result.

Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless currently charge $70 a month for unlimited calling. Sprint charges $99.99 for its combined unlimited calling and data plan. T-Mobile charges $60 for unlimited talking and texting. Compelling customers to adopt unlimited calling plans will likely bring smartphone monthly charges well above $100 a month when factoring mandatory data plan add-ons, taxes, surcharges, and fees.

Customers who find this pricing intolerable will likely gravitate to prepaid calling plans, which is where an increasing number of occasional and light cell phone users have already ended up.

[flv width=”512″ height=”308″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSJ Voice Calling Plan Changes 6-5-12.flv[/flv]

The Wall Street Journal explores why cell phone companies want to compel customers to choose unlimited voice calling plans.  (4 minutes)

Forbes magazine reports that Verizon Wireless shareholders can expect the company to enjoy fatter profits and reduced capital expenses from the upcoming deletion of grandfathered unlimited data from the company’s roster of data plans.

Trefis, a Wall Street analysis firm that uses MIT-developed modeling technology to predict future company performance, reports Verizon is on the verge of “monetizing every last byte of data that is transferred on its network.”

Verizon’s decision to end unlimited — announced by the company’s chief financial officer at a recent Wall Street conference, will compel customers upgrading to a 4G-capable phone to forfeit their unlimited plan in favor of tiered data.

With Verizon’s 4G network up and running in a large cross section of the country, the wireless carrier has an interest in moving customers to its more efficient LTE platform, which can sustain greater data traffic. With a de-emphasis on 3G, Verizon will be able to reduce capital investments required to maintain that older technology, yet enjoy the financial benefits monetized data usage will bring.

Verizon also plans to introduce shared family data plans, letting customers share a single usage allowance across multiple data devices. But Trefis warns Verizon it must avoid pricing that plan too low, because it could cannibalize the average fees collected from each subscriber (ARPU) who would otherwise have to pay Verizon for a data plan for every device. Instead, Trefis recommends Verizon price family share data plans in a way that keeps ARPU levels stable, which means consumers would not see much savings from the plans.

More importantly, shared data plans will set the stage for explosive wireless data revenue growth in the future, as customers get used to paying connectivity charges for every wireless device, appliance, automobile, and other future technology that supports so-called “machine-to-machine data exchanges” that could become commonplace in the next few years.

“Done right, Verizon could see higher ARPU levels in the coming years as subscribers increasingly use data intensive applications on its speedier 4G network and the carrier is able to monetize every byte of data that the subscribers use with its tiered data buckets,” Trefis recommends.