The parent company of T-Mobile USA has agreed to buy MetroPCS in a reverse stock split that leaves parent Deutsche Telekom able to eventually spin off the combined entity as an independent company and exit the U.S. market.

The merger will bolster T-Mobile’s mobile spectrum in several large cities, with up to 20MHz available for a robust LTE 4G network, better positioning the company to compete with third-place Sprint.

T-Mobile plans to decommission the smaller carrier’s CDMA network by 2015, gradually shifting  MetroPCS users to T-Mobile’s HSPA+ and LTE networks as customers purchase new equipment. MetroPCS customers will find T-Mobile phones for sale immediately after the deal closes.

“We have no plans to smash together T-Mobile’s GSM and MetroPCS’ CDMA customers together,” said T-Mobile CEO John Legere, defending against any comparison with the Sprint-Nextel merger. “We will be encouraging customers to switch to T-Mobile’s network as customers upgrade their phones.”

Legere says any customers still using MetroPCS’ network during the last 8-12 months before the network is decommissioned will be offered a strong incentive, such as a deeply discounted phone, to move.

Legere

Legere adds the deal will cement T-Mobile’s position as America’s only nationwide carrier offering truly unlimited 4G HSPA+/LTE wireless data service. Sprint’s network still largely depends on 3G and an older, slower standard called WiMAX. Legere says T-Mobile will now become the nation’s largest no-contract phone carrier, and will emphasize it welcomes customers who bring their own phones to the carrier.

Legere adds T-Mobile’s new 4G network will be able to rival the quality of its larger competitors when it is fully deployed.

“The T-Mobile and MetroPCS brands are a great strategic fit – both operationally and culturally,” René Obermann, the chief executive of Deutsche Telekom, said in a statement. “The new company will be the value leader in wireless with the scale, spectrum and financial and other resources to expand its geographic coverage, broaden choice among all types of customers and continue to innovate.”

But the merger also may trigger an even larger wave of wireless consolidation in the industry, as remaining players jockey for position in response to today’s announcement. Both Sprint and Leap Wireless, which owns Cricket, are under increasing pressure from investors to respond. Leap Wireless could soon face a takeover bid itself, either from T-Mobile USA or Sprint. Some investors are even calling for Sprint and T-Mobile to merge, becoming a more effective competitor for Verizon and AT&T.

The proposed  merger still needs approval from the Federal Communications Commission. Regulators are not likely to oppose deals with either MetroPCS or Leap Wireless, as both smaller carriers operate networks that largely do not overlap and both hold only a minuscule market share.

German investors wary about T-Mobile’s new emphasis on prepaid service, considered a negative in Europe, were reassured by Legere that Americans pay higher prices for prepaid, no contract service than what is prevalent in Europe.

The combined T-Mobile/MetroPCS remains the fourth place carrier with 42.5 million customers. Sprint has 56.4 million customers.

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T-Mobile CEO John Legere talks about the benefits of combining T-Mobile USA and MetroPCS. “This isn’t a deal to survive – it’s to thrive.” (5 minutes)

Susan Crawford, President Barack Obama’s former Special Assistant for Science, Technology, and Innovation Policy has the solution for America’s lack of universal broadband, and she solves it in just four Tweets:

• Step 1 gives private companies the push they need to get rural broadband financing within their existing Return on Investment formulas by reducing capital costs for unserved areas;
• Step 2 stops the corporate welfare legislation that protects the incumbent duopoly from publicly-owned competition that can ignore Wall Street’s insistence that more competition = fat profit erosion;
• Step 3 gives the ISPs access to public land and infrastructure either at no or low cost in return for recognizing they are benefiting from that taxpayer-owned infrastructure, so they better not abuse the privilege;
• Step 4 makes ISPs common carriers that have no financial interest in the content transported down broadband lines, thus no incentive to favor their own services while discriminating against others.

Whether such policies can withstand court challenges claiming violation of corporation free speech rights is, of course, another matter. But Crawford’s ideas create incentives for broadband providers to aggressively wire their respective service areas while avoiding monopolizing what travels down those broadband pipelines.

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Sanford Bernstein’s Craig Moffett is back on Bloomberg News dismissing Sprint’s business strategy and lamenting the cost of subsidizing Apple’s iPhone 5 for existing customers who don’t really ‘need’ a new phone. Moffett sees all downsides for America’s third largest carrier (in May he gave the company a 50-50 shot of landing in bankruptcy court), trying to compete against a virtual duopoly successfully maintained by AT&T and Verizon. He thinks iPhone subsidies and purchase guarantees cost Sprint too much, their 4G LTE network is too little, too late (and will never perform as well as larger competitors who have lower frequency spectrum available for better reception), and their stock is overvalued. Wall Street routinely brings out analysts cheerleading additional mergers and acquisitions for further consolidation in the wireless market. By cutting down Sprint, Wall Street continues to emphasize it has already picked winners (AT&T and Verizon) and losers (Sprint, T-Mobile, everyone else).  (6 minutes)

AT&T and Verizon: The Doublemint Twins of Wireless

Wireless carriers other than AT&T and Verizon Wireless have joined forces asking federal regulators to help level the playing field in wireless competition.

At this week’s convention of the newly-relaunched Competitive Carrier Association (CCA), Sprint, T-Mobile USA, Clearwire, C Spire, and more than 100 other small regional rural carriers joined forces in Las Vegas to sound the alarm about a wireless duopoly restraining competition and raising prices for consumers.

“Humpty Dumpty has been put back together again,” said C Spire CEO Hu Meena. “And while the identical twins sometimes agree to meet and discuss industry issues with other industry players, they seldom, if ever, support action that might better the industry as a whole.”

C Spire should know. The company filed a lawsuit against AT&T earlier this year claiming the phone giant manipulated its 700MHz band allocation to lock C Spire customers out of getting access to the latest smartphones.

“At some point, and that time is coming, regulators and politicians are going to have to acknowledge they have a choice to make: they are going to have to decide whether the communications industry, the fundamental driver of the information economy, is going to be regulated by true, healthy competition or by the government,” Meena said.

In the last 20 years, rampant consolidation has reduced the number of national wireless carriers down to four — Verizon Wireless, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile. Filling in the gaps are various regional providers, all who depend on one of the major four to provide reasonable roaming service for customers traveling beyond the service areas of smaller companies. Without reasonable roaming, competitors are left at a serious disadvantage.

Another major problem is access to the latest smartphones. Major manufacturers largely design and market cell phones for the largest four companies, often relegating smaller providers to sell older or less prominent phones to customers. When phones do not work on the spectrum acquired by smaller competitors, roaming becomes a problem.

But beyond those issues is the question of wireless spectrum. Traditionally sold in competitive auctions, the deepest pocketed companies traditionally win the bulk of frequencies, leaving competitors with less desirable spectrum that has difficulty penetrating buildings or requires a more robust cell tower network.

Meena

Members of the CCA recognize that mergers and consolidation can bring costs down through economy of scale, but in their eyes, AT&T and Verizon’s actions have promulgated a new paradigm for wireless on Wall Street: consolidation around a handful of wireless carriers is healthy; having too many competitors is inefficient.

“Consolidation can introduce business efficiencies,” said Michael Prior, CEO of Atlantic Tele-Network. “But government has a role in making sure that infrastructure is used in a way that works for the entire country. All we’re asking the FCC to do is to make sure there is a level playing field.”

Observers expect the CCA to ask the FCC to set aside spectrum in future wireless auctions exclusively for smaller carriers to help protect what competition still exists.

“There used to be dozens of railroad companies,” Prior noted. “But the government didn’t allow certain companies to develop rails that wouldn’t allow trains to interconnect to rails run by other companies.”

Meena warned the same thing could happen in the wireless industry.

“We know what happened in the first 20 years of the industry where we have had many healthy competitors,” Meena said. “There remains a false hope among too many carriers that the duopoly will one day become reasonable. But, we all know, whether we choose to admit it or not, that until all competitive carriers become fully committed to work together for open competition, the wireless industry playing field will remain harmfully tilted toward the duopoly. They will never give an inch unless and until they have to do so.”

Apple’s newest iPhone is proving to be a mixed blessing for wireless carriers and their Wall Street investors as company margins suffer from the subsidies paid to woo customers with discounted phones.

The biggest winner remains Apple, which charges between $649-849 for an iPhone 5 that IHSiSuppli estimates costs between $207-238 to manufacture, depending on the amount of memory included. Regardless of how much you pay for your next iPhone with a 2-year contract, Apple gets a much larger wholesale price, upfront.

Barclays analyst James Ratcliffe estimates AT&T, Verizon Wireless, and Sprint are providing nearly $400 in advance subsidies to reduce the contract price of the iPhone to between $199 and $399. That subsidy is 60 percent higher than comparable Android smartphones.

“We always say an Apple a day keeps the profits away,” Neil Montefiore, chief executive of Singapore wireless carrier Starhub said during an August earnings conference call.

Wireless carriers have to report the subsidy on balance sheets as a drop in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortization (called EBIDTA on Wall Street). AT&T and Verizon typically don’t see profits from Android smartphone customers until 5-6 months after selling them a new phone. Apple iPhone customers are unprofitable for up to nine months.

According to Reuters, profit margins will fall for America’s two largest cell phone companies because of the newest iPhone.

AT&T’s margin is expected to fall from 45 percent in the second quarter to 40.8 percent in the third quarter and 35.7 percent in the fourth quarter. Verizon’s margin is expected to fall from 49 percent in the second quarter to 47.4 percent in the third quarter and 43.6 percent in the fourth quarter.

Sprint CEO Dan Hesse

Under pressure from investors, wireless carriers are trying harder than ever to reduce the financial hit from the endless two-year upgrade cycle most North Americans have gotten used to over more than a decade.

For most, changing data pricing has been the key to earlier profits. Both AT&T and Verizon Wireless have eliminated unlimited data plans for new customers, and Verizon has taken away subsidies for customers holding onto a grandfathered unlimited plan. As contracts expire, customers seeking upgrades must either purchase their next phone at the unsubsidized price or give up their unlimited plan for good.

Sprint continues to bank on its unlimited data offer bundled with Apple’s iPhone 5 as an important marketing tool to attract new customers. It has worked for them, but the company may eventually capitalize on that growth with increased prices, but not before Sprint completes an ambitious upgrade to a 4G LTE nationwide network.

“We have a competitive disadvantage in terms of LTE footprint,” CEO Dan Hesse told investors. “You don’t increase your price when you have a network footprint disadvantage. You want to wait and think of that until you get to that point.”

The foundation for future profits come from data usage.

Verizon’s chief financial officer Fran Shammo believes Verizon Wireless’ foundation for higher profits will come from their new family shared data plans.

“When you think about revenue growth into the future, the shared revenue plan and what I’ll call revenue per account if you will, is really the critical piece because there are two functions,” Shammo told investors last week. “One is get people to share so that data becomes the most significant piece of the plan and the more data they consume the more they will have to buy up in bundles.”

“And the second one is make it easier for customers to attach more devices. So when you think about that future of the car, the home, medical devices, and anything else that you want to attach to that wireless network, […] I get incremental dollars for each device that’s attached and that is really what drives the future revenue growth.”

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Sprint CEO Dan Hesse last week appeared on CBS’ “This Morning” to discuss the arrival of Apple’s newest iPhone and the company’s unlimited wireless data plan.  (4 minutes)