“If you are a voice copper customer and you call in [with] trouble on your line, when we go out to repair that we are actually moving you to the FiOS product. We are not repairing the copper anymore.” — Fran Shammo, Verizon’s executive vice-president and chief financial officer

Verizon has declared the end of the copper wire phone line, at least in areas where the company’s companion fiber optic network FiOS is available. Fran Shammo, chief financial officer of Verizon Communications spoke about the death of the copper-based landline and the company’s strategic plans for its wired and wireless networks in the coming quarter at Oppenheimer’s 15th Annual Technology, Internet & Communications Conference last Wednesday.

Verizon’s quiet and involuntary switch-out to fiber service is part of the company’s grander marketing effort to push customers towards upgrading service.

“The benefit we are getting […]  if you are a voice customer and we move you to [fiber] we now can upsell you to the Internet,” Shammo explained. “If you come over as a voice and DSL customer and we move you to FiOS, you now are a candidate for the video product. So there is an upsell which is definitely a benefit to this.”

Verizon earlier announced it would no longer sell standalone DSL service to customers, and has stopped selling copper-based DSL products in areas where Verizon FiOS is available. It even discourages customers from considering standalone FiOS broadband, with a budget-busting price of $64.99 for stand-alone 15/5Mbps service with a two-year contract or $69.99 on a month-to-month basis. Verizon offers considerably better value when customers sign up for multiple FiOS services.

Scrap heap

Verizon says the reliability of fiber makes maintaining older copper wire networks pointless.

“The bigger benefit is we are transforming the cost structure of our copper business because the copper fails two to three times more than fiber, which means we have two to three more times we have a tech and a truck rolling out to that copper connection. So we are eliminating that,” Frammo said.

Frammo added decreasing repair and maintenance expenses will help improve profit margins for the company.

Both CEO Lowell McAdam and Frammo have made profit margins a much higher priority for Verizon Communications than ever before.

“If you look at the [landline] side of the business, […] we have made a shift that said we are going to focus more on the profitability of FiOS this year. And that is important for us to do, because we need to generate the cash flow so that we can reinvest in those platforms,” Frammo said. “But I think as an industry as a whole you are seeing a different focus now, that it is more on returns, it is more on profitability. Can that continue? Sure. Obviously, you might have your blips here and there based on how fast something grows in one quarter versus another, but if you look at Verizon Wireless and you look at Verizon we are expanding our margins.”

Frammo addressed several key plans Verizon has for both its wired and wireless businesses, and what political priorities the company has for the rest of the year:

Verizon Wireless’ 4G LTE Network is a Platform for Profits

Shammo told investors Verizon’s 4G LTE platform is now available to 76 percent of its customers in 337 markets. LTE, Shammo said, delivers not only the speed customers want but reduced operating costs for the cell phone provider. But Shammo said that will not bring reduced prices for customers — Verizon intends to use its LTE network as a platform for increasing profitability.

“When you take that network and you overlay our shared plan with that and now others are following with that shared plan, the entire industry from a shared perspective has a lot of room for growth because when you think about that network and the speed it provides, and then you take all these devices and you think about the number of tablets that have been sold in the United States that are not connected to a wireless network, you now enable people to connect those devices much easier.

“So when you think about that speed and that price plan that pools those data minutes, the growth profile here is really good for the industry and very, very good for Verizon Wireless because we think we have a strategic lead here.

“We are going to have to wait to see what the usage profile of this is. But can we expand our data, our data pricing? Of course we can, so you just add in more tiers. But that is part of where we think the future is going because when you think about the speeds and the video capability of LTE we do project out that that usage is going to continue to substantially increase which then folks will buy up.

“So it is going to be very, very easy for people to attach devices to just go beyond what we know today as a smartphone, a dongle, or a tablet. Now take it to your car, now take it inside your home for remote medical monitoring or whatever else that can happen in that house. Those can also now be attached to that price plan and everything can run off of that network.”

Frammo also hinted Verizon Wireless may be prepared to bring back an old concept from the days of long distance dialing — peak and off-peak data usage rates. Use Verizon’s network during peak usage periods and the company could charge a premium. But its LTE 4G platform also allows it to offer reduced rates when the network is being used less.

Shammo

Killing Off Your Phone Subsidy One Dollar at a Time

Shammo said Verizon Wireless is moving forward (along with other carriers) to gradually reduce equipment subsidies customers get when they upgrade their phones at contract renewal time. Verizon earlier discontinued customer loyalty discounts like its “New Every Two” plan and has stopped offering early upgrade incentives. Now the company is eliminating subsidies for some customers altogether and won’t offer them on several different types of devices.

“The industry has done a lot around trying to reform the upgrade policies and implement upgrade fees to try to strengthen the financial capability of that subsidy on a smartphone,” Shammo said. “We have also taken the track of not subsidizing tablets, less subsidy on dongles. It really is now all around the attachment of those devices into those price plans.”

Shammo added as competitors reduce subsidies, Verizon can continue to bring them down further over time. Shammo said that will improve the company’s margins.

Verizon Prepaid vs. Contract (Postpaid) Customers: “The religious belief is you can’t do anything that is going to deteriorate the postpaid base.”

Despite the company’s improved margins and declining costs from its 4G LTE platform, Frammo said Verizon has no plans to reduce prepaid pricing, because it could erode revenue from customers on two year contracts who might consider switching to a no-contract, prepaid plan.

“Obviously we are a postpaid carrier so anything we do — the religious belief is you can’t do anything that is going to deteriorate the postpaid base,” Frammo said. “I think people are willing to pay a slight premium to get on [Verizon’s] most reliable network and what we are finding is people are coming to that network. I think at this point we are very, very satisfied with where the prepaid market is. We are a premium to that prepaid market and, based on our growth trajectory right now, we are very comfortable with that price point.”

Verizon’s Political Priority for 2012: Where is our corporate tax cut?

While Shammo would not answer a question about which presidential candidate he feels would best serve Verizon’s interests if elected, Shammo made it clear the company is terrified of a so-called “tax cliff” — the expiration of the Bush-era tax cuts and a capital gains tax increase that would raise taxes on the wealthiest corporations from the current 15 percent to up to 25 percent — still lower than the tax rate paid by many middle class workers.

“Whoever is elected needs to deal with that tax cliff because that tax cliff could be detrimental to the economic performance of the U.S.,” Shammo said. “Then on a longer-term we definitely need corporate tax reform in the United States. We are not competitive with the rest of the world and I think everyone understands that. That is going to be harder to achieve, but I think that Washington understands that there needs to be some change within the corporate tax structure.”

(Image courtesy: FCC.com)

The Department of Justice today announced it had achieved a settlement with Verizon and four major cable operators regarding their efforts to establish a cross-marketing agreement to sell each other’s services, sell wireless spectrum, and develop a technology research joint venture.

Despite criticism that the deal represented a strong case for marketplace collusion that would reduce competition between Verizon’s FiOS fiber to the home service and cable company offerings, the Justice Department signed off on a series of deal revisions it defends as protective of competition and consumers. Among them is a time limit for the cross-marketing deal and restrictions on where Verizon Wireless can cross-market cable company services.

“By limiting the scope and duration of the commercial agreements among Verizon and the cable companies while at the same time allowing Verizon and T-Mobile to proceed with their spectrum acquisitions, the department has provided the right remedy for competition and consumers,” said Joseph Wayland, acting assistant Attorney General in charge of the Department of Justice’s Antitrust Division. “ The Antitrust Division’s enforcement action ensures that robust competition between Verizon and the cable companies continues now and in the future as technological change alters the telecommunications landscape.”

The proposed settlement forbids Verizon Wireless from selling cable company products in areas where its FiOS service is available. That is a major reversal from the original agreement between Verizon and Comcast, Time Warner Cable, Cox and Bright House Networks which restricted Verizon Wireless from marketing FiOS. Under the original deal, Verizon Wireless stores could effectively only sell cable company products, never FiOS. The Justice Dept. will still permit Verizon Wireless to sell cable service, but supposedly not at the expense of the fiber service.

The agreement also specifies that Verizon Wireless can sell cable service in areas where it currently markets DSL only until the end of December 2016, renewable at the sole discretion of the Justice Dept. Antitrust lawyers were concerned Verizon would be unlikely to expand its FiOS network or improve DSL service in areas where it could simply resell cable service.

Justice lawyers also put a similar time limit on the technology joint venture, making sure any collaborative efforts don’t impede competition.

The settlement also approves of Verizon’s proposed acquisition of spectrum from the cable companies and T-Mobile USA’s contingent purchase of a significant portion of that spectrum from Verizon.

The deal has been signed off by Justice lawyers, the companies involved, and the New York State Attorney General’s office. FCC chairman Julius Genachowski also weighed in separately with a positive press statement about the agreement.

But consumer advocates remain concerned that the deal does nothing to enhance competition and allows the companies involved to enjoy a new era of competitive detente from a stable and predictable marketplace. Verizon still has little incentive to innovate its DSL service, free to pitch cable service in those areas instead, and without robust changes to the marketplace where FiOS is sold, cable operators have little to fear from Verizon’s stalled FiOS rollout and recent price increases.

Parts of the agreement may also prove confusing to consumers. An important concession prohibits Verizon Wireless from selling any cable service to a street address that is within the FiOS footprint or in any neighborhood store where Verizon FiOS is available. Consumers likely to receive broadly marketed special offers that offer bundled discounts could be frustrated when they are prohibited from signing up because of where they live.

This concession also requires both Verizon and cable operators collaborate to share information about where Verizon FiOS competition exists currently and where it will become available in the future, so that unqualified customers are not sold cable service in violation of the agreement. That represents valuable information for cable operators, who will receive advance notification that customer retention efforts may be needed in areas where Verizon’s fiber optic service is scheduled to become available for the first time.

Any person may submit written comments concerning the proposed settlement during a 60-day comment period to Lawrence M. Frankel, Assistant Chief, Telecommunications & Media Enforcement Section, Antitrust Division, U.S. Department of Justice, 450 Fifth Street, N.W., Suite 7000, Washington, D.C. 20530. At the conclusion of the 60-day comment period, the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia may enter the proposed settlement upon finding that it is in the public interest.

Phillip Dampier

While tech fans in Kansas City rejoice over 1Gbps broadband for $70 a month, the average broadband user will think long and hard about the prospect of paying $840 a year for broadband at any speed.

That is why Google Fiber-delivered broadband in and of itself is not a cable/phone company-killing proposition.

We too easily forget our friends and neighbors that seem clueless satisfied with their 3Mbps DSL account from AT&T that they were sold with a phone line package for around $60 a month. Web pages slow to load and constantly-buffering multimedia? In their world, that means “the Internet is slow today,” not their provider.

Phone and cable companies have the internal studies to back up their claims that price matters… a lot. Those who treat the Internet as a useful, but not indispensable part of their life are going to be a tough sell at $70 a month. In fact, it is my prediction many future income-challenged and older customers will splurge on Google’s free-after-paying-for-installation 5Mbps service, satisfied that speed is currently “good enough” for the web browsing, e-mail, and occasional web video they watch on their home computer.

That is why Google was smart to offer the ultimate in “budget Internet.” Free after the $300 installation fee (thank goodness for the interest-free budget $25 payment plan) is far better than $20-25 a month for 1-3Mbps service many cable and phone companies offer their “light users.” It also brings Google’s fiber into the customer’s home, a perfect way to up-sell them later or offer other services down the road.

But the smartest move of all was Google’s very-familiar quasi-triple play package price point — $120 for broadband and television service (they really should bundle Google Voice into the package and cover the phone component for those who still want it). With the phone and cable company charging upwards of that amount already for after-promotion triple-play service, the sticker shock disappears. It’s no longer $70 for broadband, it’s $120 for everything. That is a much easier sell for the non-broadband-obsessed.

It also provides Google a critically-important broadband platform to roll out other services, including those that will appeal to customers who don’t have the first clue what a megabit or gigabit is all about. They don’t really care — they just want it to work and deliver the services they want to use hassle-free.

For Google Fiber to prove a profitable proposition, the search engine giant has to:

• Find a way to manage the huge infrastructure and installation costs, especially bringing fiber lines to individual homes. Middle-mile networks with fiber cables that string down major roadways, but ultimately never connect to individual homes and businesses are far less expensive than providing retail service. Google’s $300 installation fee is steep, but manageable with payments and even better when customers commit to a multi-year contract to waive it;
• Offer the services customers want. An incomplete cable television package can be a deal-breaker for many customers who demand certain sports or movie channels. Although younger customers may not care a bit about cable television service, they also may not be able to afford the $70 broadband-only price. Google will need to attract families, and most of them still subscribe to cable, satellite, or telco TV. They are also the most grounded customers, an attractive proposition for a company dealing with high infrastructure expenses that will take years to pay off. It’s harder to cover your costs selling to a customer still in school and likely to move after they graduate in a few years;
• Sell customers on the hassle and inconvenience of throwing out the incumbent provider in favor of fiber, which will require considerable rewiring. It is one thing to express dissatisfaction with the local cable or phone company, it is another to take a day off from work to return old equipment and have unfamiliar installers in your home to provision fiber service. Some don’t want the hassle or lost time, others won’t switch until they get around to cleaning their messy house or apartment before they invite Google inside;
• Deliver an excellent customer service experience. Google’s current level of support for its web-based services would never be tolerated by a paying broadband/cable customer. Google will have to learn as they go in Kansas City, but first impressions can mean a lot;
• Expansion to get economy of scale. It is highly likely Google Fiber is a marketplace experiment for the company, and one it will study for a long time before it decides where to go next. Google’s “beta” projects are legendary and long, and if their fiber experiment does prove successful (or at least potentially so), the company will need to expand it rapidly to enjoy the kinds of vendor discounts a super-player can negotiate.

Verizon FiOS is the largest fiber to the home network in the United States. Their “take rate” of customers willing to sign up for the service has not exactly put incumbent cable companies into bankruptcy, even with $300-500 reward debit rebate cards and ultra-cheap introductory rates. Motivating subscribers to switch has never been as successful as theory might suggest. But Verizon has also shown other providers they can hard-negotiate significant discounts on hardware and equipment, and price cutting sessions have become ruthless.

At least Google has set its targets at reasonable levels. Only between 5-25% of eligible families have to commit to signing up for service in each “fiberhood” for Google to proceed with service rollout in that immediate area. That’s a realistic target with all of the factors necessary to deem the project a success.

Our friends at Broadband Reports have managed to get at least one confirmation of a leaked slide from an internal company presentation outlining major changes in Comcast’s broadband service and speeds, but initially only in areas where Verizon’s fiber to the home network FiOS has given the cable operator a run for the money.

The biggest changes will be price reductions for customers signed to triple play packages and fast speeds from the cable company. Comcast sees an opportunity to exploit Verizon’s recent price increases for its FiOS broadband offerings, and hopes new, lower-priced broadband will hold and possibly even win back customers.

The new pricing is anticipated to take effect in early 2013 in FiOS areas, but “most of Comcast’s markets” will see these prices by the end of next year. Customers who do not bundle other services will pay a $15 surcharge.

As Karl Bode points out, Verizon’s rate increases have made FiOS a difficult sell for standalone basic broadband. Verizon FiOS’ entry level 15/5Mbps service is now priced at $70 a month.

The new pricing information does not include references to usage caps. Comcast has announced it is testing 300GB usage caps with overlimit fees in some markets.

• Comcast Basic (5/2Mbps): $29/month
• Comcast Performance (25/5Mbps): $49/month
• Comcast Preferred (50/10Mbps): $69/month
• Comcast Extreme (100/25Mbps): $99/month
• Comcast Premier (300/75Mbps): $119/month

The CWA’s Verizon-Cable Company Deal Monster

While Verizon customers in more than two dozen towns and communities around Boston can enjoy fiber optic broadband service today, residents inside the city of Boston cannot buy the service at any price. It is largely the same story in Syracuse, Buffalo, and Albany, N.Y., and Baltimore, Md.

With Verizon’s fiber network FiOS indefinitely stalled, local community leaders and union workers are more than a little concerned that Verizon is spending time, money and attention promoting a deal with the cable industry — its biggest competitor.

The Communications Workers of America is stepping up its protest of a proposed deal between Verizon’s wireless division and large cable operators including Comcast and Time Warner Cable that would result in cross-marketing agreements that sell cable service to Verizon Wireless customers and wireless service to cable customers.

The union is urging the Federal Trade Commission and the Federal Communications Commission to stop the deal because, in their view, it will destroy any further expansion of fiber optic-based FiOS, reduce competition, and raise prices for consumers.

The union notes that cable operators are not being asked to promote Verizon’s FiOS network, only Verizon Wireless’ phone services. Verizon Wireless, which barely mentions FiOS service in many of its wireless stores, would suddenly be promoting Comcast and Time Warner Cable instead.

The odd-network-out is clearly Verizon’s fiber optic FiOS service, which was originally envisioned as a competitor against dominant cable operators. But when the economy tanked, Verizon stalled fiber deployment, agreeing only to wire areas where the company already concluded negotiations with local officials. That leaves urban population centers in the northeast (except New York City) stuck with the cable company or Verizon’s DSL service, which has been become increasingly difficult to buy.

Verizon countered the deal would be good for consumers, especially those buying cable packages.

“We believe these agreements will enhance competition, allowing Verizon Wireless to take market shares from other wireless companies, while allowing cable companies to more vigorously compete by enabling them to offer wireless services as part of a triple or quad-play package of services,” the company said in a statement.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CWA TV Ad Behind Closed Doors.flv[/flv]

The Communications Workers of America launched this new ad — “Behind Closed Doors” — last week in Washington, D.C., Virginia, and Pennsylvania media markets. (1 minute)

But union workers in FiOS-bypassed communities like Binghamton, N.Y. suggest customers will simply be on the short end of Verizon’s stick. They note the nearest city where Verizon is deploying fiber optics is suburban Syracuse — more than 70 miles to the north.

BALTIMORE: Left behind as FiOS spreads to six surrounding counties

BOSTON: No Internet revolution

ALBANY: The Empire State’s capital city has no FiOS

BUFFALO: Hit hard by the digital divide

SYRACUSE: Surrounded by high speed—but none for the city

[flv width=”580″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WBNG Binghamton Union Fights Verizon Deal 8-8-12.mp4[/flv]

WBNG reported on a CWA-sponsored protest against Verizon’s deal with cable companies in FiOS-deprived Binghamton, N.Y.  (1 minute)