Verizon’s silence on data plan pricing for the coveted Apple iPhone is deafening.  In the absence of definitive information, Verizon’s refusal to comment Tuesday about what it plans to charge its data hungry iPhone customers has triggered rampant speculation.

On Monday, the Wall Street Journal reported Verizon was going to keep pricing stable for its unlimited data plans and extend them to iPhone owners, if only to further tweak AT&T’s stingy data plan allowances and pricing:

Verizon Wireless, the country’s largest wireless carrier, is confident enough in its network that it will offer unlimited data-use plans when it starts selling the iPhone around the end of this month, a person familiar with the matter said. Such plans would provide a key means of distinguishing its service from rival AT&T Inc., which limits how much Internet data such as videos and photos its customers may use each month.

But that was before Verizon officials conspicuously avoided answering direct questions about data plan pricing at Tuesday’s press event.  Verizon’s FAQ for those interested in the iPhone doesn’t help (underlining ours):

Are there minimum service and data pricing requirements?

Yes, iPhone customers will need to choose from any of the current Nationwide plans. Customers will also be required to activate a data package, pricing will be announced at a later date.

ComputerWorld seemed to deliver the highest predicted inflation rate of Verizon’s data pricing — guestimating it will cost iPhone owners up to $120 a month for unlimited wireless data:

“Data plans for Verizon iPhone could range from $20 to $90 a month or even $120 unlimited a month,” Rob Enderle, an analyst at Enderle Group told the publication. “The iPhone uses an awful lot of data, so they will have to charge heavily for data and it will be fairly expensive.”

If Verizon wanted to find some way to kill Apple iPhone addicts’ enthusiasm for the phone on Verizon, charging a potential $330 a month for a single line plan is probably the way to do it.

It’s official.  Verizon Wireless will welcome Apple’s iPhone to its network next month, but in a glaring omission, company officials refused to discuss data pricing for the all-important data plans that will power the wildly popular smartphone.

The official announcement of the iPhone on Verizon came late this morning in New York at a press event hosted by Verizon’s president Lowell McAdam.  Joining him was Tim Cook, Apple’s chief operating officer. Neither Steve Jobs or Verizon CEO Ivan Seidenberg were on hand for the event.

“Late in 2010 we started offering the Apple iPad and today we are extremely gratified to announce that the iPhone 4 will be available early next month,” MacAdam said. “Our relationship with Apple has developed over the last two years. Back in 2008 we started talking about bringing the iPhone to a CDMA network, and we spent a year testing.”

“All of Apple is very excited to bring the iPhone to Verizon’s customers,” added Cook.

The new phone will be available for pre-orders, exclusively for existing Verizon Wireless customers Feb. 3.  A week later, anyone can reserve the Verizon iPhone at Verizon Wireless or Apple stores, or online.  The new phones will cost $199 for the 16GB model, $299 for the 32GB model with a new two year contract.  The phones will work on Verizon’s 3G network, but not on their new LTE/4G network.

Verizon is so confident its network can handle the traffic, it is bundling, for free, a mobile hotspot with the phone that will allow up to five devices to share the iPhone’s 3G connection over Wi-Fi.  That means you can use a laptop or home computer with a wireless card and connect to Verizon’s 3G wireless broadband service without any additional equipment.

But Verizon’s press event left some questions unanswered, starting with whether the company would sell unlimited data plans to accompany the phone.

“We talked about the device pricing, but we’re not going to talk about the pricing for the network for that connectivity,” Verizon Wireless CEO Dan Mead said. “We’ll have announcements in the future.”

Another downside: the Verizon iPhone will not be able to multitask.  If you make or receive calls on your phone, your data connection is suspended for the length of the call.  This is common on CDMA cellular networks, and it currently affects other smartphones used on Verizon’s network as well.

As far as Apple sees it, that isn’t much of a problem so long as the phone works on Verizon’s network.

“I can tell you that the number one question I’ve gotten is when will the iPhone work on Verizon,” said Cook. “I couldn’t be happier to tell people that. They will make those sorts of trade-offs.”

[flv width=”576″ height=”344″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/AP Verizon to Start Selling iPhone Early Feb 1-11-11.flv[/flv]

Lowell McAdam makes the official announcement.  (2 minutes)

Disgruntled AT&T customers, and those with infinite patience for Apple’s iPhone on Verizon Wireless’ network — your long wait appears to finally be over.

After nearly a year of speculation, Verizon Wireless is expected to announce the imminent arrival of the coveted smartphone on the nation’s largest wireless carrier at a press event tomorrow.

The Verizon version of the iPhone could come at a price premium, with some anticipating the entry level version of the phone could be priced as high as $249 — $50 higher than with AT&T.  The usual two year contract applies.

Analysts predict a muted stampede, at least at first, by unhappy AT&T customers.  As many as two million customers itching to dump AT&T could jump to Verizon in 2011, but they’ll pay dearly to do so.  First, their existing AT&T iPhone won’t work on Verizon’s network, so that means a new phone and a new, two year contract with Verizon to get the best price.  Second, AT&T locked many of its customers into two year contract extensions with the release of the last iPhone in June.  No amount of whining by iPhone users, which has worked to score early upgrades and discounts in the past, will get AT&T to make the price of divorce less expensive.  The company’s price to sever ties: more than $200 for most in-contract customers with the latest version of the popular phone.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Verizon iPhone Package 1-10-11.flv[/flv]

CNBC discusses the pros and cons of Verizon’s adoption of Apple’s iPhone in these two reports.  (8 minutes)

Verizon iPhone users will also give up something else: an iPhone that can multitask.  AT&T’s GSM network allowed customers to browse web pages and run applications while you talked on the phone.  Verizon’s CDMA network doesn’t support that.  As long as you talk on your phone, your data applications won’t update.  It’s an either/or proposition, at least for now.

Still, expect the iPhone to be a Verizon hit like none other.  Carl Howe, an analyst for the Yankee Group, expects Verizon to sell 16.5 million iPhones in 2011, with more than half — 9 million — coming from Verizon’s own subscriber base.

The question is — can Verizon’s three bedroom house support the entire extended family showing up on their network doorstep?

AT&T’s network suffered from the onslaught of data-hungry iPhone devotees.  As millions of Americans adopted the phone, an AT&T exclusive, the company’s wireless network groaned under the usage.  With calls dropping, data trickling, and customer service irritating, AT&T scored rock-bottom in consumer ratings.

Some wonder if the same fate could afflict Verizon’s network.  Verizon currently has the lowest percentage of smartphone customers using its network among the four major carriers.  Verizon’s pricing is typically considered the culprit.  Customers insisting on the iPhone ended up with AT&T.  But those seeking Android phones had more choices — Sprint’s unlimited data plans at aggressive price points, T-Mobile’s value-oriented family shareplans, or Verizon’s robust network coverage at Cadillac pricing.

Putting the iPhone, already a premium-priced phone some consumers can’t live without, with Verizon’s reputation for high quality service, is expected to be a winning combination, and 16.5 million customers joining Verizon’s existing 30 million smartphone customers in a single year could have a dramatic impact.

“Unless Verizon has done a lot of network upgrades in advance, it may see many of the same capacity problems that have plagued AT&T,” Howe says.

The news AT&T is about to lose its exclusivity for the phone was taken in stride by some company executives, one who used the occasion to take a swipe at Verizon’s slower speed 3G network.

AT&T public relations head Larry Solomon pointed out Verizon’s 3G network relies on 3.1Mbps EVDO Rev. A technology while AT&T delivers 7.2Mbps on its HSPA 3G network.

The iPhone is built for speed, but that’s not what you get with a CDMA phone,” Solomon told Electronista. “I’m not sure iPhone users are ready for life in the slow lane.”

Verizon Wireless is expected to unveil the new phone Tuesday morning, with its in-store availability expected within a few weeks.  For fans of unlimited usage, there is one more piece of good news: Verizon is expected to continue offering unlimited data usage plans to its new iPhone customers.  AT&T cashiered its own unlimited data plan last spring, forcing customers to keep usage under 2GB per month if they don’t want an even higher bill.  Verizon is reportedly confident its network can sustain the traffic, and will leave its data hungry customers alone… for now.

Apple Insider produced this chart comparing Verizon and AT&T's smartphone pricing.

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WTTG Bloomberg Verizon iPhone Package 1-10-11.flv[/flv]

WTTG-TV in Washington delivers the news about the imminent arrival of the iPhone on Verizon’s network in a consumer-friendly fashion, while Bloomberg delves deeper into exactly what impact the move will have on existing and future customers of both AT&T and Verizon.  (9 minutes)

Media excitement about recent iterations of allegedly “4G” networks aside, no currently available wireless broadband service will replace the need for traditional wired broadband so long as providers limit consumption to 5GB (or less) per month.

As average consumption per household is now at least three times that level, wireless broadband customers will be faced with three choices:

1. Supplement a wireless broadband account with an unlimited, wired broadband service;
2. Be prepared to pay overlimit fees or purchase additional accounts or “usage packs;”
3. Reduce usage to remain within plan limits.

Sprint currently remains the largest carrier offering unlimited access to its 4G network, also sold independently under the Clearwire brand.  But as Clear subscribers found out, “unlimited” comes with “unlimited hassles” if Clear’s “intelligent network management” software catches you using it “too much.”  Speeds are quickly throttled downwards, well below even Sprint’s slower 3G network.

Many of Clear’s customers signed up in response to ads promising the 4G wireless service as a “home broadband replacement.”  Ditch your cable modem or DSL service for a wireless alternative!  Some salespeople even dared to suggest Clear was faster than cable or DSL.  Only for most it is not.

Every carrier has their own version of “4G” here or on the way, most of which can deliver better and faster service than the 3G alternative, but wireless providers are hellbent on ensuring customers never get used to the concept of truly unlimited service.

Glenn Britt, CEO of Time Warner Cable, admits the wired broadband industry erred when it got people used to all-you-can-use broadband.

“We made a mistake early on by not defining our business based on the consumption dimension,” Britt told investors back in 2009 when the company was contemplating its own metered usage trials.

4G networks can bring out the "data hog" in everyone if you actually take advantage of the faster speeds to stream multimedia.

Wireless providers are working hard not to repeat that mistake.

AT&T found usage caps anger customers, but got away with implementing a 2GB monthly wireless usage cap tied with the introduction of the wildly popular newest iPhone (and helped by grandfathering existing unlimited customers until their next phone upgrade.)

“If I had a baby in my hand and my iPhone and I had to drop one, I’d drop the baby,” laughed Dallas iPhone owner Luisa Benton.  But Benton’s love for her Apple phone does not extend to AT&T’s network, noting she has dropped calls and had poor reception in certain areas.

Many iPhone owners retain their cable or DSL broadband service because AT&T’s wireless usage cap limits what they can manage online, and the company’s network problems only adds insult to pocketbook injury.  With many locked into two year contracts, few are going to brave early termination fees to find an alternative.

As providers upgrade their networks, they are also upgrading their prices.  Verizon’s new LTE network, for example, carries a premium price tag for those wishing to use it.

Customers looking for a faster wireless experience will pay $50 for 5 GB or $80 for 10 GB of data on Verizon’s new network.  Run over those limits and an overlimit fee of $10 per gigabyte kicks in.

“People are never going to use wireless networks the way you see them on the commercials,” writes Stop the Cap! reader Jo-Anne in Seattle.  “They are always watching movies or TV shows — services you absolutely don’t want to risk at those prices.”

J0-Anne asked a Verizon representative if new 4G smartphones would be permitted to use unlimited data plans.

“‘Don’t bet on it,’ was the reply I got — Verizon may keep unlimited around for 3G network users only,” she said.

If true, Verizon will deliver overpriced, inadequate service for any customer looking to leave their home broadband account behind.  As soon as multimedia gets involved, usage caps rapidly become a dealbreaker.

Verizon recently contracted with Bridgewater Systems Corporation to supply it with data management software.  Bridgewater is also a major supplier of network throttling solutions to ferret out heavy users and impede their speed, as part of “fair use policy” regimes.

Some wireless companies are trying to have their cake and eat it too — selling “unlimited” wireless broadband service hampered by an aggressive “policy control” network management scheme.  You’ve seen the ads promising unlimited access, but probably missed the fine print warning the provider will throttle your wireless broadband speed to something comparable to dial-up once they deem you a data hog.

Cricket and Clear are both notorious for throttling customer speeds and delivering disclosures of the practice more impenetrable than North Korea.

A Clear blog entry tried to simplify the legalese:

During times of high network utilization our network management system may limit speeds, but we never limit the amount of data a customer with an unlimited data plan may use. The algorithm in place reviews several factors including long and short-term usage, current network capacity, and network demand to determine if network management needs to be applied.

The end result is that a few heavy users temporarily give up some speed during limited times of high demand so that everyone can have a good experience. A majority of customers are having a positive experience and experiencing faster speeds during times of greatest demand since these enhancements were enacted.

The “positive experience” Clear’s blogger reports may be wishful thinking, however, after reading the company’s support forums.  They’re overloaded with thousands of angry customers and probably many more ex-customers.  An “unlimited” broadband experience is meaningless if customers endure speeds well below the minimum acceptable definition of “broadband,” often for days on end.

Cricket is no better:

Cricket sets usage levels on the amount of data a customer can upload and download within stated periods of time. If you exceed your rate plan usage levels, Cricket will temporarily reduce the speed at which you can send and receive data over the Cricket network. You will still be able to use the service but your speed will be slower. Cricket may use other traffic management and prioritization tools to help ensure equitable access to the Cricket network for all customers. Your service speed is not guaranteed and is subject to this Fair Use Policy.

Cricket has set a data usage level (“Usage Level”) per customer. As shown in your rate plan brochure or on www.mycricket.com, this Usage Level varies based on the rate plan you’ve selected. Every day, we measure your upload and download data usage (“Actual Usage”) to determine if your total Actual Usage, as aggregated over your bill cycle (“Usage Total”), exceeds the Usage Level for the rate plan you selected. During hours of operation, you can inquire about your Usage Total versus your monthly Usage Level by calling 1-800-Cricket and speaking with a Care representative.

Once you begin a new bill cycle your rate plan Usage Level upload and download speeds will be restored.

The average Cricket customer is unlikely to grasp anything beyond the fact their speed sucks if they are targeted by Cricket’s throttle.  It’s not as simple as breaking through your monthly usage allowance.  Cricket can and does throttle customers who seem like they could exceed the limit, based on their daily account activity.

In the end, most wireless customers pay more for less service.  The primary benefit is portability, and carriers consider that worth the premium prices charged.  But as the Internet’s love affair with all things multimedia continues, none of these providers will provide a suitable alternative to the traditional home-wired broadband account.

[flv width=”432″ height=”260″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WFAA Dallas iPhone Frustration 11-30-09.mp4[/flv]

Last year like this year, WFAA-TV in Dallas reports frustrations continue with AT&T’s wireless data network.  The company’s response?  Limit customers’ use of it and push more of them off to Wi-Fi alternatives.  (2 minutes)

AT&T Mobility thinks it has a winning strategy when it took away unlimited data plans, forcing new customers to choose high-priced, usage-limited alternatives.  But a new survey from Wall Street research firm Sanford Bernstein found AT&T customers will grab, claw, and scream to keep the peace of mind that comes from having the choice of an unlimited use plan.

Sanford Bernstein’s study found a large number of customers willing to abandon any carrier that takes unlimited data away from them.  About a third of the more than 800 people responding said AT&T’s move toward usage-based billing left them with a bad impression of the wireless carrier.  That’s particularly bad for AT&T, which already scores as America’s lowest-rated wireless company according to Consumer Reports.

AT&T mitigated some of the potential damage by letting existing customers keep their unlimited data plans when they ceased selling the unlimited option this past June.  New customers are forced to choose between two limited-use plans — $15 for 200MB or $25 for 2GB of usage (a tethering option is also available.)  Existing customers will only face that hard choice if or when they change phones, presumably in the next year or two.

Had they not grandfathered in existing customers, Sanford Bernstein’s research suggests a large proportion of customers forced to give up unlimited data would quit AT&T even if it meant buying a new phone and paying a higher bill just to get the unlimited data option back.  When AT&T eventually forces these customers’ hands, Sanford Bernstein predicts trouble.

According to the study, more than 58 percent of the lowest data users said they would dump AT&T overboard and switch to another provider with an unlimited plan. For heavier users, more than two-thirds are prepared to take their business elsewhere.

But even with overwhelming evidence like that, AT&T and some Wall Street analysts think Internet Overcharging schemes do customers a favor.

AT&T's mandatory data plans

“Customers generally have strongly negative perceptions about Usage-Based Pricing, and these are often not correlated with self-interest,” Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett said in a research note analyzing the findings of the survey conducted this past summer. “It is fashionable to argue that loyalty to carriers is dead (except perhaps to Verizon Wireless, whose service level is perceived to be markedly higher than that of its competitors). The new conventional wisdom is that carrier loyalty has been replaced with loyalty to the device. But high inclination to switch carriers and phones to maintain an unlimited plan suggest that perhaps the plan itself is more important than either one.”

The Wall Street firm’s research is hardly news to consumers, who have repeatedly expressed loathing contempt for Internet Overcharging schemes like so-called “usage-based billing,” “data caps,” and speed throttles that kick in when carriers decide customers have used the service enough.

Consumers are willing to pay a higher price just knowing they will never face dreaded “bill shock” — a wireless company bill filled with hefty overlimit fees charged for excessive data usage.  They also have no interest in being penalized by arbitrary usage limits that punish offenders with speed throttles that reduce wireless speeds to dial-up or lower.

AT&T was the first major carrier to throw down the gauntlet and force customers into choosing between a “budget plan” that is easy to exceed at just 200MB of usage per month or an inadequate, overpriced 2GB tier that costs just five dollars less than the now-abandoned unlimited use plan.

Wall Street firms like Sanford Bernstein worry their investor clients may be exposed to a revenue massacre when competing carriers like Verizon Wireless, which retains an unlimited plan for now, unveils its own version of the popular Apple iPhone.  The result could be a massive stampede of departing customers headed for top-rated Verizon Wireless, even if it means paying early termination fees.

AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel sees things very differently however, telling CNET News AT&T’s new limited option plans deliver more choice and flexibility for data-hungry users.