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Take Away Message of the Week: A Tale of Two Companies

Phillip Dampier April 29, 2009 Editorial & Site News 4 Comments

Time Warner Cable released its first quarter earnings for 2009 today, and we were mighty curious to see if there was any evidence yet of the Irwin Allen production of The Exaflood, coming to an Internet connection near you.  Would Time Warner Cable be telling its investors that Internet brownouts were likely on its Internet service?  Would they sell investors on the importance of stemming the tide of bandwidth piggies by slapping them with gauges, tiers, and overlimit fees?  Would management proudly unveil their carefully crafted plan of action to cope with the crisis just a year or two in the distance?

No. No. And, oh please get real.

Time Warner Cable

Time Warner Cable

Part of our job on StoptheCap! is to educate you with actual facts before the non-reality bizarroworld of Time Warner Cable marketing gets you to start believing in their tales of an Internet teetering on the edge of a cliff.  The fun part is, we get to educate you with their own material.

It’s not enough to simply oppose bandwidth/usage caps and rationing plans.  One must also be able to refute why they are supposedly necessary, and be able to recognize and debunk propaganda when you see it.

Throughout the latest quarterly report, as well as in today’s conference call with investors, I waited to hear one mention of the crisis that they claim is forthcoming.  Let’s review their own claims from just two weeks ago:

  1. The Internet is growing a lot.
  2. In order to keep up with the growth, we need to expand our infrastructure.
  3. A tiered pricing system manages growth and provides incentive to stay within your plan limits.
  4. DOCSIS 3 is expensive and we need the revenue from this plan to give you the faster speeds you demand.
  5. We need to let people who use the Internet less get a lower cost plan.
  6. Without this kind of approach, our service will be subject to brownouts and failure.

That sounds mighty serious and important.  It’s definitely something you’d need to disclose to shareholders and investors if you thought it was this critical to the future of your company, and considering broadband represents 1/3rd of your package of services, that’s something you cannot keep to yourself.

If it was true, that is.  If I could dance like this, I’d be Dancing With the Stars.

At the end of the quarter, within the time-frame when the corporate decision to expand metered use testing was approved, there is not one word about any of this that comes anywhere close to the Chicken Little Sky is Falling campaign foisted on Rochester, the Triad, San Antonio, and Austin.  There is none of this in the quarterly report, nothing about it in today’s conference call, up until an investor group asked the company about its public relations catastrophe.

If you review the audio from our earlier article on today’s meeting, enjoy the furious backpedal by CEO Glenn Britt, who tries to shift the topic to whether the Internet on cable was a crazy idea back in the 1990s.  In the end, it’s downplayed as a marketing test that got pushback, and the company will need to continue to explore and test new ways of changing its broadband business plan in the future.  It’s the mother of all dial-backs.  This was the easy part to discern, but when you dig deeper, it doesn’t take long before you realize we’ve all been had:

  1. Time Warner’s only firm plans for DOCSIS 3 upgrades were for New York, NY (a city that was never on the “experiment” list we note).
  2. Despite assurances that test cities would be getting upgrades as a result of the tiered pricing system, the company disclosed today there were no plans to immediately implement DOCSIS 3 in any other city.
  3. Company officials downplayed the need for performing the upgrade in the first place, claiming there has not been much clamor for speed (so much for the crisis nearly upon us!)
  4. The Lite plans for lighter users impact on the company’s returns for broadband, but are compensated for by heavier users who may actually be carrying that financial load with Turbo subscriptions.
  5. The company again plans to reduce spending overall in the coming year, not increase it.
  6. Most of the infrastructure enhancements in their fiber network aren’t for broadband, they’re for “switched digital video” which is helpful for cable systems trying to deliver additional HD channels.

So we can chalk this entire affair up to a marketing plan designed to convince customers that paying more for less, with absolutely no assurance (and evidently no intention) that “necessary” upgrades would be immediately scheduled and implemented was a good thing.

By the way, broadband made them another tidy pile of cash this quarter, with an increase in subscriptions, all which helped make their overall losses from an accounting change look a bit lower.

Cablevision

Cablevision

Meanwhile, another cable operator decided to take a nobler approach.  Cablevision quietly did their corporate responsibility thing and upgraded their cable broadband system to DOCSIS 3 without launching a pledge drive, (tote bag for 40GB cap!) so they could be prepared to confront Verizon FiOS, AT&T U-verse, or any other broadband player entering their market.  They also like having happy customers.  So, instead of a claim the digital tidal wave was nearly upon us so pony up some scratch, they upgraded their network and created new high speed tiers.  Tiers to attract customers into happily paying them more money for more service, so they can make bigger profits!  What a novel concept.  For $99 a month, for those who want super speeds, they’ll get them from Cablevision.  Those who want to spend less on a standard plan never have to worry about their connection slowing down any longer, either.

This morning illustrated once again why it is so critically important to check out the claims and statements being made by companies that want to convince you paying them a lot more for less is a good idea.  To think I was contemplating launching a multi-city bake sale to help bail out Time Warner from its horrible bandwidth demise, until I discovered their investors are being told everything is fine, the broadband division remains highly profitable, and they can even spend less on it in the quarters to come.  So I guess readers will have to muddle through without buying my Save Time Warner Bundt Cake, at least until they’re back later this summer with the gas gauge and another story they’ll choose to share with us.

Time Warner Cable 1st Quarter Results Media Pack

Phillip Dampier April 29, 2009 Audio 1 Comment

For your convenience, I have compiled a package of media on the 1st Quarter Results for Time Warner Cable, including audio from this morning’s investor conference call, and copies of the reports for your review. You must remain on this page to stream audio clips.

A cue sheet is referenced below for the different audio actualities.  The complete conference call is available for download as an MP3 file.

Audio Actualities

Cut 1: Time Warner CEO Glenn Britt introduces earnings results, and touches on general economic conditions & competitive risk (3:51 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 2: Time Warner EVP and Chief Financial Officer Rob Marcus talks about broadband results (0:20 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 3: Time Warner EVP and Chief Financial Officer Rob Marcus notes subscriber results deteriorated in the last few weeks. (0:23 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 4: Time Warner EVP and Chief Financial Officer Rob Marcus breaks down subscriber growth by product (0:22 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 5: Time Warner EVP and Chief Financial Officer Rob Marcus discusses the reduction in capital spending (1:08 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 6: COO Landel Hobbs reviews competition and its impact on Time Warner Cable (1:42 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 7: COO Landel Hobbs on how Time Warner Cable will make investments in its platforms in this quarter and beyond (3:51 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 8: Q&A – What impact has the usage based metering trial had on the company and what about DOCSIS upgrades? CEO Glenn Britt answers. (2:10 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 9: Results on the Road Runner Turbo product and its impact on profits. EVP and Chief Financial Officer Rob Marcus answers. (0:19 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 10: Q&A – How will online video impact Time Warner’s video business model, and are programming costs still increasing? EVP and Chief Financial Officer Rob Marcus answers and CEO Glenn Britt follows up. (3:46 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Cut 11: Q&A – What fiber product created more competition for Time Warner Cable in the last quarter? COO Landel Hobbs answers. (0:24 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Entire Event: 1st Quarter 2009 Time Warner Cable Investor Conference Call (54:48 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

Time Warner Cable Documents

04/29/2009      Time Warner Cable Inc. to Report First Quarter 2009 Results

ico_pdf All documents are in Adobe PDF format.

Time Warner Cable 2009 First-Quarter Results 436.9 KB

Time Warner Cable 2009 Updated Trending Schedules 61.2 KB

Time Warner Cable 2009 First-Quarter Slide Presentation 294.8 KB

WXII Triad: A Hollow Victory?

Phillip Dampier April 29, 2009 Issues 1 Comment

WXII did a follow-up the day after Time Warner announced it was shelving its metered broadband service plan.  It was clear that not everyone believes Time Warner’s plans have been shelved permanently.

thumbs-up12A fair report with all sides represented, but the reporter’s estimates about the size of movies was generally inaccurate.  DVD quality/HD movies are far in excess of one gigabyte.  One movie is much more likely to consume at least four gigabytes if you are obtaining a high quality version suitable for display on a television set.  Game play has a wide range of impact on usage.  Some online multiplayer games consume surprisingly small amounts — especially when sending game plays and movements across a network.  Latency is a very bad thing in a fast moving game, after all.  But many game add-ons, updates and enhancements can use a lot more.

Powerboost Being Deployed At No Charge to All Standard Service Road Runner Customers

Phillip Dampier April 29, 2009 Issues 18 Comments

In a morning conference call with Time Warner Cable executives and investors, Time Warner Cable announced that the Powerboost technology upgrade will be provided to all Road Runner customers at no additional charge in the coming weeks. Powerboost formerly was available in most markets only to customers on the Turbo tier.

Powerboost provides a temporary speed boost to downloads on the Time Warner Cable broadband service, usually around 16Mbps, according to Time Warner officials.

Company officials also announced the only market where DOCSIS 3.0 upgrades are currently scheduled is New York City.  All other markets will eventually see upgrades announced in the coming years on a market by market basis.  Company officials downplayed the importance of the upgrade, saying they had not seen much demand for increased speed.  This diverges significantly from the company line that usage caps and tiered pricing were required to prevent “Internet brownouts” and to race additional funds to complete “necessary upgrades.”

Complete coverage on this story and its impact on metered pricing can be found on StoptheCap!

Time Warner officials announcing Powerboost to be made available to Road Runner Standard subscribers (0:23 minutes)

You can download the clip and listen later.

BREAKING NEWS: TW Questioned on Usage Based Pricing

Phillip Dampier April 29, 2009 Issues Comments Off on BREAKING NEWS: TW Questioned on Usage Based Pricing

In a conference call this morning with Time Warner Cable executives, reporters questioned officials about their usage based pricing trials.

Company officials indicated that the company was dealing with a dynamic business sector and was trying to improve returns by trying new products and services, and redefining the business model for broadband, depending on customer reaction.

Company officials noted there was significant push back by consumers and politicians over usage based pricing, and withdrew the market trials for the time being.  However, company officials stressed they will “keep trying to do things in the future.”

“Back in the 1990s, Time Warner was primarily a TV company in a TV industry.  Broadband then was an innovating and radical thing, and a lot of people thought it was stupid and wouldn’t work.  [The usage based trial] got a lot of pushback, but this was just going to be a market trial.”

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