Netflix has a big problem.

As it gradually shifts its operations towards more instant, on-demand video streaming of movies and TV shows subscribers want, some well-connected studios and distributors have a vested interest in stopping Netflix in its tracks.

Among the most threatened is Time Warner’s HBO, which has watched premium movie channel subscriptions erode for years as consumers dump pay-TV for lower cable bills and Netflix subscriptions.  For up to five dollars less than what cable systems charge for HBO, Netflix customers get access to unlimited video streaming and can still check out one movie at a time on traditional DVDs.

Netflix is slowly evolving their business towards streaming and away from costly and labor-intensive DVD rentals-by-mail.  Customers enjoy the instant access to programming — no waiting for the mail or getting on a waiting list for popular titles.  Netflix does not have to pay ever-increasing postage rates either, or replace lost or damaged DVDs.

But for Netflix streaming to succeed, the company needs agreements with content producers — Hollywood studios and distributors — for so-called “streaming rights.”

One contract wins the right to obtain and rent out the physical DVD’s, which Netflix has had no problem in obtaining… eventually.  But another, separate agreement is needed win the rights to stream movies or TV show over the Internet.

So far, most of Netflix’s streaming agreements cover older movies and TV shows that have already found their way to Hulu or have been run to death on premium movie channels.  Anyone for Big, Fast Times at Ridgemont High, or Class Action?  These are all listed by Netflix as “new releases.”

Now Netflix wants to expand their library to include additional titles and they’ve run into a roadblock – HBO.

The premium movie channel controls streaming rights not just for its own programming, but also for Warner Bros., 20th Century Fox, and Universal.  Those three movie studios produce an enormous amount of movies and television shows, and without being able to contract streaming licenses, Netflix may be in big trouble.

HBO's Go service streams HBO movies, specials, and series to "authenticated" HBO subscribers

HBO intends to keep those shows, as well as its own, exclusively for itself and its cable and telco-TV partners.  As part of the TV Everywhere concept, HBO will dramatically expand its own streaming movie service — HBO Go, currently only available to authenticated Comcast and Verizon FiOS HBO subscribers.  Everyone else can forget about it.

The pay television industry — cable, satellite, and telco-TV, is more than happy to accommodate HBO sticking it to Netflix.  HBO Go could help sustain the premium movie channel and sell more subscriptions.

The video war means that Netflix will be in the DVD rental-by-mail service for years to come, if only to serve up movies and TV shows from those three studios.  More likely, however, is that Netflix will find a partner to help return fire — denying HBO access to movies controlled by Netflix.

Ultimately, consumers are likely to follow the content.  If Netflix controls it, consumers will sign up for that service.  If the cable industry controls it, they’ll be forced to keep their cable subscriptions.  It’s a high stakes game either way.

Time Warner Cable faces an increasing number of subscribers cutting their cable television service off, choosing to watch their video entertainment online.

Now the nation’s second largest cable company is trying to mitigate the potential damage with a series of new applications designed to bring cable television and your computer, cell phone, and iPad together.

Time Warner is getting started with the iPad, developing an application that will help cable subscribers remotely control their DVR cable box to record and manage programming.  Away from home and want to scan a program guide and record an upcoming show?  The new app will let you do it.  Need to grab some video on-demand from Time Warner?  Not a problem.  You can even start watching on your iPad and pick up where you left off from your home.

Integrating the many devices consumers use as part of their daily lives with cable television could bring the cable viewing experience back front and center among at least some subscribers.  That reduces the chance customers will decide they can do without cable TV.  Since most of Time Warner Cable’s on demand library will only be available to current cable subscribers, cutting cable’s cord also means an end to online on-demand viewing of cable-licensed programming.

Time Warner Cable's prototype iPad app

Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt has repeatedly emphasized his interest in delivering cable services the way customers want, and claims the new generation of applications on the way from the cable company will provide just that.

Although Time Warner will start with the iPad, the application will quickly become available for the iPhone and iPod Touch series.  Additionally, versions for other smartphones as well as portable and home computers will soon follow.

Ironically, this integration process could drive data volumes on Time Warner Cable’s broadband network to new heights.  Video streaming alone will dramatically increase traffic.  Yet the same company that is ready and willing to provide these bandwidth-intensive services also complained about existing broadband customers “using too much” of their existing broadband service.  In the spring of 2009, the company sought to implement a 40GB usage limit on some its broadband customers and charge up to three times more — $150 a month for unlimited access.  At the time, Britt and other company officials blamed the burden of online video and other usage-intensive applications for spiking the demand on their network.

Customers may wonder whether Britt’s new enthusiasm for online video means he recognizes their network has plenty of capacity to support unlimited access or is looking for a new excuse to justify a return to Internet Overcharging schemes.

[flv width=”640″ height=”500″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Time Warner Cable iPad App.flv[/flv]

Time Warner Cable CEO Glenn Britt, CTO Mike LaJoie, VP of Web Services Jason Gaedtke and Director of Digital Communications Jeff Simmermon ponder their prototype iPad app and discuss the implications of integrating cable TV with other electronic devices.  For Time Warner Cable, it’s a matter of preserving cable TV subscribers who might contemplate cutting the cable TV cord and watching everything online.  (13 minutes)

Time Warner Cable is probably changing your channel lineup, or already has — removing several analog channels you used to receive as part of your Standard Service subscription and moving them to digital.

For customers with digital set top boxes, the change happens without most noticing the difference.  The formerly analog signal still shows up in the same place, only the transmission format has changed.

But customers without set top boxes will notice as channels disappear forever from their lineups, replaced with… nothing.  But their cable bills will remain exactly the same, despite the loss of channels.

For Stop the Cap! readers like Bev, today spelled the end of Animal Planet and The Travel Channel, among others.  For those in Rochester, N.Y., last night was the last chance to watch C-SPAN 2, The Travel Channel, TruTV, Discovery Health, and Shop NBC in analog.  In Buffalo, it was bye-bye to The Travel Channel, C-SPAN 2, TV Guide Channel, and CMT.

It some states, particularly Texas, Time Warner Cable is sticking it to Public Access, Educational, and Government channels, moving them all to digital.  In some cases, cable companies and AT&T U-verse have managed to forever bury these PEG channels in Digital Channel Siberia with channel numbers in the high hundreds or even thousands.  For many subscribers, a search and rescue team couldn’t find their new channel positions.

It’s all a part of a larger plan to slowly erode away analog channels in favor of digital service, which takes up far less bandwidth on Time Warner Cable systems.

As cable systems are nearing capacity and do not wish to spend millions to commit to further upgrades, switching out analog service in favor of digital can provide enormous new capacity to accommodate HD channels and forthcoming DOCSIS 3 cable modem service upgrades.

Unfortunately, these channel changes will irritate subscribers who do not want to pay for set top boxes and do not want them on their televisions.  If you are among this group of box-haters, Time Warner Cable will continue to slowly drop more and more of the channels you used to watch without bothering to reduce your bill for the channels you no longer get.  Eventually, virtually all analog channels will probably disappear, replaced by digital versions you will need a set top box to view.

In many areas of upstate New York, Time Warner is trying to placate angry subscribers by offering one set top box at no charge for one year.  But here comes the tricks and traps — Stop the Cap! confirmed with Time Warner Cable this evening that only those customers without any set top boxes in their home can take advantage of this free offer.  If you already have a box, you’ll continue to pay for it even though your neighbor is getting one free for a year.  After the year is up, pony up — each box costs $7.80 a month ($7.50 for the box, $0.30 for the remote).

At least Texans are getting a better deal from Time Warner Cable — Broadcast Basic subscribers will get their boxes free for five years, Standard Service customers will get them for one year.  But beware — if Time Warner needs to roll a truck to install your box in the San Antonio area, be prepared to cough up $39 for the service call.

For broadband customers, there is some good news.  Virtually all major Time Warner Cable service areas facing channel changes like this will receive DOCSIS 3 upgrades and the chance to obtain faster Internet service by the end of 2010, even those communities bypassed for earlier upgrades.  You will also get additional HD channels.  In western New York, for example, Time Warner Cable plans to add a large number of HD cable channels by mid-fall:

On or About September 2, 2010:
Style HD
BBC America HD

On or About September 9, 2010:
National Geographic Wild HD
MTV HD
Comedy Central HD
Nickelodeon HD
Spike HD

On or About September 16, 2010:
History Channel International HD
CMT HD
Hallmark HD
VH-1 HD
Cooking Channel HD
DIY HD
TWCSN HD
YNN HD

On or About October 1, 2010:
Womans Max HD
HBO Latino HD

Lee, Massachusetts is located in broadband sparse western Massachusetts

Mark Williams is the kind of customer Time Warner Cable would normally love to have.  He wants the complete, super deluxe Time Warner triple play — cable, digital phone, and especially broadband service for his home-based business.

Time Warner wants Williams to have their service, too — but for a price.  Instead of charging the regular $35 installation fee, the cable company wants him to pay $12,000 to install his service, because, they claim, Williams’ driveway is 100 feet too long.  Time Warner says the $35 dollar installation fee is only for homes within 200 feet of the nearest utility pole.  Williams home is 300 feet away.  He doesn’t mind paying something extra to cover the additional 100 feet, but not $12,000.

The town of Lee, Berkshire County, in western Massachusetts, managed to wrangle a franchise agreement from Time Warner Cable that entitles every home and business to cable service if electric and telephone service are already available.  That’s unique for many smaller communities, who routinely have cable service available in town, but not in outlying areas.  Cable companies hate wiring rural density neighborhoods, where the costs to wire comparatively few homes takes too long to earn back from the few subscribers they can reach.

But Time Warner found themselves a loophole — a “long driveway” clause in the franchise agreement that allows them to charge more for installing service to homes set far back from the road.

Now, according to the Berkshire Eagle, Lee’s representative to the Five Town Cable Television Advisory Committee is calling out Time Warner, claiming they are misinterpreting the town’s franchise agreement and wants the Lee Board of Selectman to start imposing fines against the cable company if they don’t relent within 30 days.

Malcolm Chisholm says the real reason Time Warner wants to charge $12,000 is because Williams’ home is roughly a half-mile away from the closest Time Warner Cable subscriber, not because his driveway is too long.

“We just want to put pressure on them,” Chisholm said. “We’re just trying to get them to follow the agreement.”

Chisholm said Time Warner Cable “won’t talk to us” about Williams’ situation. The Eagle was also unable to get a response from officials at the company’s regional office in Albany, N.Y.

The newspaper decided that since Time Warner Cable wasn’t responding to its private inquiries, it would air its views on the editorial page.

If a Lee resident moved into a cave in October Mountain State Forest, Time Warner Cable might be justified in charging him $12,000 to run cable there so he watch the Red Sox on NESN and keep up with the Kardashians on VH-1. But the $12,000 the cable giant wants to charge a resident who lives near the Tyringham line is preposterous, and beyond that provides the latest evidence of the desperate need for expanded broadband service throughout the rural Berkshires.

Because Mark Williams lives roughly a half-mile away from the closest Time Warner subscriber, his installation fee escalates from the standard $35 to $12,000, which may as well be $120,000 it is so devoid of logic. Mr. Williams appears to be an eager customer too, one who wants the entire cable/Internet package Time Warner is regularly flogging.

Greed is still good at Time Warner Cable

Time Warner Cable has tried every excuse in the book to justify their continued interest in Internet Overcharging schemes directed at residential Road Runner customers.  Over a year after Stop the Cap! and its readers helped bury an experiment in overpriced broadband, the notion of doubling or tripling Internet pricing for consumers is still alive and well at the nation’s second largest cable company.

Nate Anderson of Ars Technica explored the thinking of Time Warner Cable’s executives a year later and discovered their desires for overcharging remain as strong as ever, but the excuses they give for wanting to do so have changed.

TWC’s revenues from Internet access have soared in the last few years, surging from $2.7 billion in 2006 to $4.5 billion in 2009. Customer numbers have grown, too, from 7.6 million in 2007 to 8.9 million in 2009.

But this growth doesn’t translate into higher bandwidth costs for the company; in fact, bandwidth costs have dropped. TWC spent $164 million on data contracts in 2007, but only $132 million in 2009.

What about investing in its infrastructure? That’s down too as a percentage of revenue. TWC does spend billions each year building and improving its network ($3.2 billion in 2009), but the raw number alone is meaningless; what matters is relative investment, and it has declined even as subscribers increased and revenues surged. “Total CapEx [capital expenses] as a percentage of revenues for the year [2009] was 18.1 percent versus 20.5 percent in 2008,” said the company a few months ago.

In fact, CapEx has declined for the industry as a whole. As the National Broadband Plan noted, the big ISPs invested $48 billion in their networks in 2008 and $40 billion in 2009. (About half of this money can be chalked up to broadband; the rest of the improvements were done to aid cable or phone service.)

To recap: subscribers up, revenues up, bandwidth costs down, infrastructure costs down. This might seem like a textbook case of “viability”; what were execs like Britt and Hobbs talking about last year when data caps were held up as a necessary safeguard against doom?

Before moving to Time Warner’s Excuse-O-Matic, let’s pause for a moment and reflect on the fact this company has stalled more on Internet upgrades than virtually every other major cable operator.  Even bankrupt Charter Communications has been aggressively pursuing investment in the win-win DOCSIS 3 technology that allows cable operators to sell faster tiers of service -and- reduce congestion in heavy web-surfing neighborhoods.  By effectively “bonding” several cable channels devoted to its broadband service together, the pipeline into even the most hip college neighborhoods can sustain a full-scale assault by Hulu fans streaming high bandwidth video.  Comcast realized this more than two years ago and rolled out its super-fast 50Mbps tier to a dozen cities well over a year ago.  In contrast, Time Warner Cable managed to bring forth its “wideband” offering in just a handful of communities — New York City being the largest, last year.

Internet providers always try to awe an audience with claims about the billions of dollars they invest in improved technology, while forgetting to mention they earn tens of billions in profit on those investments.  The shock and awe of stacks of money piled high on a table is tempered when you see the warehouse holding the rest of the cash standing behind it.

Broadband is becoming the single biggest revenue source for cable operators, passing digital phone and well on the way to passing cable television service.  It’s the cash cow that can be milked forever, especially with the limited number of choices most Americans have to obtain the service.

Back to Nate’s story:

Several months ago, while on a business trip to Manhattan, I entered a nondescript building near the Flatiron building and rode the elevator to the top. Inside was one of TWC’s main New York operations centers, hosting an astonishing array of cable and Internet gear. But the real showpiece was the monitoring room, a darkened room with control hardware, computers, and a wall of TVs showing every cable channel currently running out over TWC’s network.

It looked brand new and obscenely expensive. Engineers slipped in and out in silence. A huge pile of boxes on the floor held a new set of replacement TVs. When I make my career shift from ink-stained wretch to Evil Genius, this is exactly the sort of room I will build in order to plot my world domination.

“It’s not a cheap endeavor to run a network like we do,” said TWC’s tweeting VP of Public Relations, Alex Dudley, when I had spoken to him the week before. Here was an obvious reminder of what he meant.

Time Warner Cable’s version of a command and control center, wall after wall fitted for television sets — the Time Warner Cable Sports Bar — impresses only until you realize the company could have paid for it out of the petty cash box.  It’s obvious nobody was watching those televisions last spring as wide-scale protests erupted in four of the cities Time Warner Cable chose for their experimental pricing project.  If they had, they would have apologized to their customers and buried the idea then and there.

At this point, Mr. Anderson began the useless attempt to debate Mr. Dudley, whose job is to sell the agenda of Time Warner Cable (and obfuscate when necessary).  Why has Time Warner Cable’s senior management held onto its dreams of Internet Overcharging like a pit bill, refusing to let go, Anderson asked.  Because of labor costs, Dudley replied.

As Internet use increases, TWC techs, engineers, and executives need to make adjustments such as DOCSIS upgrades at the cable company headend or “node splits” that divide a shared cable loop in two when bandwidth use hits certain metrics. Paying all of these people costs money, and those costs increase as the network is more heavily used.

Last April, when Time Warner Cable was relying on its tweeters like TWCAlex to spin a tale about how their Internet Overcharging schemes would benefit customers and help pay for DOCSIS 3 upgrades (which ended up bypassing cities like Rochester, N.Y., and went to New York City instead — where no such pricing scheme was tested), Alex’s bosses were just completing a layoff of some 1,250 Time Warner Cable employees.  As Internet use was increasing, Time Warner Cable was decreasing the number of its employees from coast to coast.

If Alex is telling the truth, Time Warner Cable needs an employment fund from 8.9 million customers.  Considering many Time Warner Cable cities raised the price on Road Runner service by $5 a month this year, that’s $240 million dollars a year to get the pot started and I’m only counting four million of those subscribers.  If Time Warner Cable hired back those 1,250 former employees, they could each get $192,000 a year from that kitty.  Implement Internet Overcharging schemes that could triple consumers’ rates for an equivalent level of service and they could earn as much as CEO Glenn Britt and then some.

I’m also uncertain how often Time Warner Cable executives are shimmying up phone poles or clearing out wasp nests inside those green cabinets positioned all over town while performing service upgrades and node splits.  It’s far more likely they are spending their time dreaming up new excuses to raise cable rates.

Please deposit 25 cents for the next megabyte of usage

This latest excuse, while certainly novel, is just another bit of nonsense.

Time Warner Cable actually spent more money last year dealing with HD channel rollouts and upgrading their cable systems to support Switched Digital Video to accommodate them.  The company did not exactly slap limits on how often cable viewers can leave their sets on, nor pitted their average TV viewers against viewing piggies who watched too much.  Maybe the coin slot on top of the cable box can be tried in 2011.

In fact, as broadband equipment continues to become more reliable and scaled to manage growing demand, it’s becoming easier than ever to keep broadband lines humming at the cable company.  That leaves Time Warner in the envious position of enjoying increasing profits on service that increases in price while decreasing in cost.  In fact the only thing growing at a faster pace than the company’s broadband profits is the level of incredulity informed consumers have towards cable companies with long lists of excuses to justify rape and pillage pricing.

No matter what Time Warner Cable executives want you to believe, the FCC noted in its broadband plan that international bandwidth has grown 66 percent each of the last five years, all while the costs have dropped by 22 percent per year to handle that traffic.

Consumers do not want these Internet Overcharging schemes.  Time Warner Cable should do itself a favor and drop them, once and for all, just as they have done for their Road Runner Mobile service.  If 3G/4G wireless broadband from Time Warner comes without usage caps, why in the world should cable broadband be any different?