Providers establishing Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps, so-called “consumption billing,” and speed throttles that force subscribers into expensive upgrades are planning for a growth industry in data consumption.

According to new research from a firm that specializes in market strategies, data usage is going up and fast.  Providers that seek to monetize that usage could win enormous new profits just sitting back and waiting for customers to exceed the arbitrary usage caps some companies are now enforcing with their customers and take the proceeds to the bank.

iGR says the demand for connectivity inside the home is at an all-time high, with the biggest growth coming from wireless Wi-Fi connections.  The more devices consumers associate with their home broadband connection, the greater the usage.

That is one of the reasons why providers are increasingly supplying customers with free or inexpensive Wi-Fi routers, to make the connections quick, simple, and potentially profitable down the road.

Comcast's Wireless Gateway: A Future Money Machine?

Comcast announced this week it would supply a free 802.11N “home gateway” free of charge to every new customer signing up for Blast!, Extreme 50 or Extreme 105 broadband service.  In addition to wireless connectivity for every device in the home, the Xfinity Wireless Gateway also includes a built-in cable modem and phone service adapter.  Time Warner Cable strongly encourages new DOCSIS 3 customers use their equipment for Wi-Fi service as well.  AT&T has included its own wireless gateway with U-verse for a few years now.

The offer is hard to refuse.  Nearly 80 percent of homes use wireless access, connecting cell phones, tablets, laptops, personal computers, game consoles, and even set top boxes that let customers stream video entertainment to their television sets.

iGR found average usage in heavily-connected homes at the all time high of 390GB per month.  By 2015, that will rise to more than 440GB per month.  Both numbers are well in excess of average consumption limits by providers like Comcast and AT&T, which top out at just 250GB per month.  Of course, not all Wi-Fi usage is based on traffic from the Internet.  Some users stream content between computers or devices within the home.  But the research is clear — usage is growing, dramatically.

Video is by far the biggest factor, according to iGR.  Their report, U.S. Home Broadband & WiFi Usage Forecast, 2011-2015, says the appetite for downloaded and streamed video is only growing.

Matt Vartabedian, vice president of the wireless and mobile research service at iGR, says home Wi-Fi has become inextricably woven into the personal, social and business fabric of today’s life.

Broadband is increasingly seen by consumers as an essential utility, as important as the home wired telephone, safe drinking water, and reliable electric and natural gas service.

Providers are positioning themselves to take advantage of the growth market in data by establishing what, at first glance, may seem to be generous (often inflexible) usage limits that remain unchanged years after introduction.  While only a handful of consumers may cross those provider-imposed thresholds at first, within a few years, it will be more uncommon to remain within plan limits, especially if you watch online video.

AT&T pays a lot of money — millions annually — to make sure its business agenda does not run into political or legislative roadblocks in Washington, D.C.  With dozens of members of Congress effectively on AT&T’s campaign contribution payroll and the company’s unparalleled skill at convincing non-profit organizations to advocate for its interests, worrying about the government’s antitrust views on its proposed buyout of Deutsche Telekom’s T-Mobile was the least of its troubles.

“It’s a done deal,” several analysts predicted shortly after the deal was announced, especially after AT&T demonstrated its confidence level in the merger was as high as the enormous $6 billion dollar breakup concession payable to Telekom if it ever fell apart.

Then the government dared to put its two cents in, in the form of a “are you kidding me?”-lawsuit courtesy of the U.S. Department of Justice.  It seems, in the words of some Beltway cynics, the Obama Administration can manage to see a clear cut case of anti-competitive behavior when given enough time.

Since the lawsuit was announced on Aug. 31, it has been “all-hands-on-deck” for the company’s government relations division, packed full of the company’s top lobbyists.  While company lawyers desperately attempt to block what it sees as “pile on” objections and lawsuits from worried competitors, Sprint-Nextel in particular, AT&T lobbyists are trying to compromise away the Justice Department case with proposals of concessions and giveaways to make approval more palatable.

Further north, as fall turns into winter in New York’s financial district, Wall Street analysts are cold on the troubled deal themselves.

The Financial Times reports most analysts think there is now less than a 50-50 chance the merger will be completed unless the two companies agree to disgorge themselves of market share, territories, and increasing “shareholder value” that will come from eventual rate increases a wireless duopoly would inevitably bring.

Some are even less sanguine, predicting AT&T has only a 20 percent shot, and only if it sells off considerable chunks of valuable spectrum to competitors other than Verizon Wireless.

AT&T is retuning its “message” for the times, downplaying the original, ludicrous notion that urban-focused T-Mobile would be the keystone of a new era in 4G wireless service for rural America.  There is a reason T-Mobile isn’t the first choice for small town America’s cell phone buyers.

Instead, AT&T is now positioning the merger deal as a lifeboat for its troubled competitor.  AT&T suggests the number four carrier is in immediate peril — hemorrhaging customers, caught without a coherent 4G strategy, and an exodus of interest by its increasingly neglectful parent — Deutsche Telekom.

Could Time Warner Cable be an eventual part-owner of T-Mobile USA?

“Over the past two years, T-Mobile USA has been losing customers despite explosive demand for mobile broadband,” AT&T said in a statement this week. “T-Mobile USA has no clear path to 4G LTE, the industry’s next generation network, and its German parent, Deutsche Telekom, has said it would not continue to make significant investments in the United States.”

With AT&T predicting the demise of its smaller would-be cousin, consumers may not be in the mood to sign a two-year contract with a company that could soon be rechristened AT&T, especially those leaving AT&T for T-Mobile.

But don’t tell T-Mobile’s marketing department it’s a phone company on life support.  T-Mobile has beefed up its advertising and continues to irritate its larger competitors, particularly AT&T, with very aggressive pricing on its prepaid plans.

T-Mobile recently unveiled two disruptive $30 4G prepaid plans that offer either 1500 shared minutes/text messages and 30MB of data usage -or- 100 voice minutes combined with unlimited texting and up to 5GB of mobile data before the speed throttle kicks in.  Those prices are too low for AT&T and Verizon to ignore, especially when offered on a 4G network.

So far, the Justice Department shows no signs of backing down from their resolute opposition to the deal, minor concessions or not.  Shareholders may not appreciate giving the government too much of what it wants in order to win approval.  Washington lawmakers are split — virtually every Republican favors the merger, Democrats are less absolute, with most opposed.  Among those in favor, by how much is often a measure of what kind of campaign money AT&T has thrown their way.

AT&T absolutely denies they have a “Plan B” in case the merger eventually fails.  But the Times doubts that, reporting as time drags on, an alternative deal might emerge.  Some of the possibilities:

• T-Mobile USA could merge its spectrum with Dish Network, the satellite TV company, to launch a new 4G mobile operator in the USA;
• Combine forces (and spectrum) in a deal with leading U.S. cable companies like Cox, Comcast, and Time Warner Cable to launch a new cable-branded mobile operator;
• Sell or merge operations with MetroPCS, Leap Wireless’ Cricket, or one of several regional cell companies.

Perennial cable booster Craig Moffett from Sanford Bernstein predictably favors the cable solution, which would let companies offer a quad or quint-play of cable TV, wireless mobile broadband, wired broadband, phone, and cell phone service all on one bill.  It would also get the FCC off the backs of cable operators Time Warner and Comcast, who both control a total of 20MHz of favored wireless spectrum they have left unused since acquiring it at auction.  The Commission is increasingly irritated at companies who own unused spectrum at a time when the agency is trying to find additional frequencies for wireless providers.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg ATTs 96000 Job Claim in T-Mobile Deal Questioned 11-8-11.flv[/flv]

Bloomberg News questions AT&T’s claim its merger deal with T-Mobile will create 96,000 new jobs. [Nov. 8] (3 minutes)

Winston-Salem Time Warner Cable customers can expect to pay around 4% more for cable service in 2012.

Time Warner Cable’s annual rate increases have now reached the Carolinas.

The company is mailing letters to customers that announce rate hikes for off-contract clients in the $2-4 a month range, including price increases for Road Runner broadband that will now cost between $49.45-$57.95 a month.

“Our new prices reflect dramatically higher programming costs, additional programming and features, and continued investment in our network and customer service,” said Time Warner spokesman Scott Pryzwansky. “Time Warner Cable invested more than $350 million in capital in the Carolinas over the past year to make our network even more robust and to enable our customers to get the services and features they want.”

The company also invested heavily in lobbying lawmakers to keep community-owned broadband competition at bay, helping pass a measure through the Republican-controlled legislature that makes municipal broadband competition much more unlikely.

The result is another year of unfettered rate increases for customers in cities like Winston-Salem:

• Cable TV increases from $10.23 to $11.49 for broadcast basic, $64.99-$69.49 for standard analog service, $80.99-$85.49 for digital cable;
• Broadband increases from $47.95 to $49.45 for customers who also have digital cable, $52.95 to $55.95 for customers with any other tier of cable TV, $57.95 for standalone broadband service;
• Telephone rates are unchanged.

Customers can avoid some of the price increases through creative bundling, threatening to take your business elsewhere, or by signing up for alternative providers:

1. Customers on discounted promotional packages, retention deals, and term contracts will not face the rate increases until their promotional rates or contract expires;
2. If you are unhappy with the rate increase, consider calling Time Warner and telling them to cancel your service 1-2 weeks from today’s date.  Then wait for them to start calling you with promotional “win-back” offers that deliver at least a year of substantial savings off regular rates;
3. If you are a broadband standalone customer, consider signing up for Earthlink under their six-month promotion for just under $30 a month.  You will continue to be billed by Time Warner Cable and receive the same speeds and service with two exceptions: no PowerBoost (a temporary speed increase during the first few seconds of downloading), and you lose your Road Runner e-mail address (which you are not actually still using, are you?)  Get a Gmail account, don’t worry about speed gimmicks, and save $28 a month.  At the end of six months, sign up for Time Warner’s Road Runner service under their promotional rate, which is around $30 a month for a year.  Total savings over the 18 month combined promotional rate term: $504!

More than two years after Time Warner introduced DOCSIS 3 speed upgrades in New York, Time Warner is finally completing broadband upgrades for their customers in the Carolinas.  The latest cities scheduled to get the company’s Wideband (50/5Mbps) and Road Runner Extreme (30/5Mbps) services are Wilmington, Jacksonville and Morehead City. The new services will be available by early 2012.

Most customers in eastern North Carolina and parts of South Carolina still get Standard service speeds of 10Mbps download, 512kbps upload.  After the upgrade, a boost in upstream speeds to 1Mbps for Standard service customers is expected.

Don't bother.

Cox’s ambitious plans to get into the cell phone business were already tempered by the cable company’s decision last spring to simply resell Sprint service under the Cox name.  Now it’s “game over” as the company today quietly stopped signing up new customers and will pull the plug on existing ones March 30, 2012.

Those customers already signed up for Cox’s “unbelievably fair” cell service will officially become Sprint customers next April.

In a confidential memo obtained by Engadget, Cox executives ultimately decided it didn’t make sense for the company to invest in a limited range 3G cellular network.

Cox’s plans to utilize the 700MHz wireless spectrum it acquired in 2008 for 3G-powered wireless service began to go wrong almost from inception.  The wireless business is increasingly in the hands of two super-sized companies, thanks to ongoing mergers and acquisitions.  That leaves smaller, regional companies at a competitive disadvantage unless they heavily discount service.  While Cox was contemplating its first 3G network, AT&T, Verizon, and Sprint were well on the way to launching next generation 4G service that would have left Cox behind.

Cox itself is a regularly-rumored takeover target, likely by Time Warner Cable.  No cable industry buyer has much interest in a cell phone service.  Shedding it could make the company more attractive for would-be suitors.

Engadget reader Sal Petrarca observed:

“I always thought it ironic when I [heard Cox’s radio ad asking customers] ‘You wouldn’t order cable from the phone company, would you?’ I guess no one is going to be ordering [cell] phones from the cable company now, eh?”

Cable and satellite companies are the worst offenders when it comes to forcing customers to wait around for scheduled service calls, wasting time and money.

Who hasn’t taken time off from work for the cable installer or a repair crew, who inevitably arrive just minutes before the end of the six hour “window” the company provided.

Making people sit at home for service calls wastes money — a lot of it.  A new study from TOA Technologies found Americans hang out at home an average of 4.3 hours waiting for the cable guy to arrive, much longer than most people think they should have to wait.  TOA added up the cost of lost wages and reduced productivity that results when employees are absent — $37.7 billion annually.  That works out to an average of two eight-hour working days off a year per person, costing $250 a year.

More infuriating: you find yourself indisposed when the cable crew finally shows up and you can’t reach the door in time before they leave, or the promised visit never materializes.  That results in the dreaded “sorry we missed you” sticker attached to your front door and a rescheduled service call, often a week later.

When your cable company is also your Internet Service Provider, it can be double trouble.  ISP service calls were the second worst, phone companies fourth.

The cable industry’s lousy reputation among consumers is not lost on them. More than a decade ago, the industry voluntarily offered $20 service credits for late or missed service calls to improve their image. But TOA found the longer companies keep customers waiting, the more likely it is they will consider taking their business elsewhere.

With the advent of telephone company competition, customers infuriated by Comcast or Time Warner Cable may decide to switch to Verizon FiOS or AT&T U-verse, or vice-versa.  Now the cable industry is back with new ways to placate customers and save everyone time and money.  Shortened service call windows and self-install kits are increasingly common ways customers can avoid a day home from work.

Time Warner Cable is one of the cable industry’s most-improved players, reducing waiting windows, calling customers to give them a heads-up when they are on the way, and offering weekend and evening service calls. In upstate New York, Time Warner customers can, in certain circumstances, be given an estimated time of arrival accurate to within 10 minutes.

The 10-minute “Tech on the 10s” program only works on the first scheduled service call of the day.  If the cable repairman starts his shift at 9am, the only guaranteed time slot will be from 9-9:10am.  Because different technicians start their shifts throughout the day, the company promises that several hundred slots are available each week.  If the technician blows it and still arrives late, the customer gets $20 for their troubles.

The company hopes shortening wait windows will give customers fewer reasons to use that time to shop around for a different service provider.

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSYR Syracuse How much does it cost you to wait 11-13-11.mp4[/flv]

WSYR in Syracuse takes a look at the impact of waiting for the cable repair man to show up and what Time Warner Cable is doing about it.  (2 minutes)