Waiting for FiOS

For those who admire the apparent pervasiveness of competition between Time Warner Cable and Cablevision Industries vs. Verizon Communications’ FiOS, the idea the Big Apple has a broadband problem seems a bit ridiculous, particularly if you can’t get your local cable company to pick up their phone and AT&T will only hand you a 1.5Mbps DSL line, if you can get it.

But according to the Village Voice, New York City broadband “sucks,” and it will continue to suck for at least the next eight years.

“Though entrepreneurs in most parts of the city can access a fast broadband connection today, many of those we interviewed said that New York’s telecom infrastructure is well behind where it should be for a city vying to be one of the nation’s two leading technology hubs,” the study notes.

What it comes down to is that New York — despite being the world’s media capital — does not have adequate access or bandwidth to support tech companies’ needs.

For example, some companies might be able to get either FiOS or Time Warner Cable, but not both, which means they can’t have broadband backup.

“It’s like the elephant in the room is that bandwidth here sucks,” one entrepreneur told the researchers. “You should be able to walk into any building and have at least 150 megabit connection available to you. There has to be ways for the city to construct much better bandwidth availability for start-ups.”

Many cited told the researchers that their internet routinely goes down. And startups who want to set up shop in cheaper, industrial districts often can’t, because the cable companies would rather provide service to more lucrative residential areas. Sometimes, telecom concerns are willing to dig up streets and lay cable, but at a hefty price — around $80,000.

That $80,000 bill is handed to a prospective customer and does not come from cable operators’ capital expense fund.

Researchers gave New York a broadband grade of B to B-, which isn’t too bad considering what broadband is like in the mid-south, the midwest, and the rural west. But it doesn’t cut it for helping New York become a bigger tech city.

Waiting for "Business Class"

While Time Warner Cable and Cablevision have wired multi-dwelling units and homes across New York City, cable operators have only recently started to turn their serious attention to corporate business customers.  Time Warner Cable agreed, as part of its franchise renewal deal with the city, to invest $1.2 million per year for fiber connections to commercial buildings yet to be wired for cable. Cablevision, which can be found in boroughs like Brooklyn and out on Long Island, agreed to spend a more modest $600,000 a year for the same purpose.

Time Warner Cable has already warned investors its capital spending on wiring commercial office buildings across the country is increasing as the company sees lucrative new revenue opportunities competing with their usual nemesis — the phone company.

Verizon treats FiOS deployment in New York City as a long, long-term project. There are neighborhoods in Manhattan that can’t wait much longer for the fiber optic network as Verizon increasingly lets its old copper wiring go to pot, leaving some New Yorkers without phone service for weeks.  The city of New York has given Verizon until 2014 to wire the city, and the company appears likely to need those two additional years at their current pace, and that agreement only covers residential properties, not commercial ones.

Robust broadband is essential for many high technology startups and the multi-million dollar data centers that support them. New York mayor Michael Bloomberg considers it a top priority to reduce the city’s economic dependence on Wall Street, which generates considerable tax revenue for both the city and state. High tech enterprises fit that bill. But the city’s broadband grades do not.

“For a city that’s trying to be a tech powerhouse, we need to have an A,” said Jonathan Bowles, the author of the study, “New Tech City.”

Time Warner Cable and Viacom have ended their dispute over whether the cable company had the right to stream Viacom-owned cable networks over its lineup of streaming apps for portable devices and home computers.

This means the cable company will be restoring streams of Comedy Central, MTV, VH1 and other Viacom networks over the coming weeks.  In return, Time Warner Cable has agreed to carry/continue Viacom’s Country Music Television on its cable systems.

From the official statement:

Viacom and Time Warner Cable have agreed to resolve their pending litigations. All of Viacom’s programming will now be available to Time Warner Cable subscribers for in-home viewing via internet protocol-enabled devices such as iPads and Time Warner Cable will continue to carry Viacom’s Country Music Television (CMT) programming. In reaching the settlement agreement, Time Warner Cable and Viacom were also able to resolve other unrelated business matters to their mutual satisfaction. Neither side is conceding its original legal position or will have further comment.

The dispute had no effect on traditional cable carriage of these networks. Only online streaming was impacted.

Time Warner Cable's old branding for broadband

Time Warner Cable is nearing the end of a licensing deal that has allowed the company to use a familiar Warner Bros. animated character to promote their broadband service.

The company has spent at least a year transitioning customers away from the Road Runner brand name, now simply referring to their broadband product as “Internet” or, in some markets, “HSI” — High Speed Internet.

The “brand refresh” comes as Time Warner tries to associate all of its products and services around its traditional “eye-ear” logo, according to company spokeswoman Jeannette Castaneda.

Licensing the Road Runner character as the broadband service’s mascot has also been expensive, and the continued need to use the character to educate consumers about the speed benefits of cable broadband over DSL has diminished in importance.

The new look

The transition away from the Road Runner brand has been ongoing since last summer, but Broadband Reports notes numerous markets will see the brand and logo eliminated completely effective May 19th.  The company is also using the occasion to adjust pricing and tiers of its broadband service.  Hardest hit will be standalone broadband-only customers, who will now pay $53.95 a month for Time Warner’s standard 10/1Mbps Internet service. New customers will also pay a modem rental fee of $2.50 a month. Standalone Turbo (20/2Mbps) customers will pay $73.95 for their Internet service.

Time Warner Cable’s a-la-carte pricing for broadband is designed to make their bundled service offerings more attractive in comparison. The company will sell you Internet-only service for $73.95, or sell you a triple play package of phone, Internet, and television service for just $16.04 per month more on a 12-month promotion.

Broadband Reports‘ source lists pricing for one unspecified market:

• $53.95 for Time Warner’s 10/1Mbps Standard Internet
• $20.00 additional for 20/2 Turbo
• $30.00 additional for 30/5 Extreme
• $50.00 additional for 50/5 Ultimate
• $29.95 for 1/1 Lite (Usually a retention only offer)
• $42.95 for 3/1 Basic

Customers can avoid paying regular pricing by bundling multiple services together, getting a customer retention deal when threatening to cancel service, or bouncing between a six-month new customer promotion available from Earthlink over Time Warner Cable and the cable company’s own broadband promotional offer, good for 12 months. Both cost $29.99 a month in many markets.

Time Warner Cable's marketing machine pushes customers towards multi-service bundles. New customers pay even less.

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Road Runner 2002 Ad.mp4[/flv]

A Time Warner Cable Road Runner advertisement from 2002.  (1 minute)

Wall Street analysts are predicting the end of free video streaming in the near-term as media and cable companies regain control over online content for themselves.

Cable companies are partnering with content producers to move a growing amount of streamed video content behind paywalls in an effort to protect their core business profits.

The trend is evolving so rapidly, analysts like Laura Martin with Needham & Co. predict the end of free streaming is imminent.  Either customers will pay upfront or use TV Everywhere “authentication platforms” that require evidence of a pay television subscription before being able to watch.

Craig Moffett, an analyst with Sanford Bernstein, perennially sees cable operators as the most likely winners in the billion-dollar entertainment battle.

“They’re winning the broadband wars,” Moffett says of the cable industry. “Broadband is increasingly the flagship product, not the video distribution business.”

Cable networks and program producers are growing increasingly alarmed at the impact video streaming services like Hulu and Netflix are having on their bottom lines.

Case in point: the fall of Nickelodeon, a popular children’s cable network that used to guarantee high ratings and lucrative ad revenue.  Recently the network has fallen off the ratings cliff.  Some careful analysis found the reason why: Netflix.  Nickelodeon, along with many other cable networks, licensed a number of their series to Netflix for on-demand viewing. In households with young children, parents increasingly choose the on-demand Netflix experience for family viewing over the traditional cable channel.

Moffett

That’s a major problem for content producers and networks, and Moffett quotes industry insiders who predict licensing deals for Netflix streaming will increasingly not be renewed (perhaps at any price) as networks retrench to protect their core business.  What is left will soon be behind paywalls, limited to customers who already subscribe to a pay television service.

That line of thinking is already apparent at Time Warner (Entertainment), Inc., where CEO Jeff Bewkes rarely has a good thing to say about Netflix.  His company refuses to license a significant amount of their content for online streaming because it erodes more profitable viewing elsewhere.

Time Warner only licenses older content and certain “serialized dramas” that have proven difficult to syndicate on traditional broadcast television or cable outlets.  But the company keeps kid shows to itself and its own distribution platforms, like Cartoon Network.

When it does let shows go online, it wants them behind paywalls.

Bewkes applauded Hulu’s recently announced plans to move its service away from free viewing.  Authenticating viewers as pay TV subscribers before they can watch “makes sense” to Bewkes.

“Hulu is moving in the right direction now,” Bewkes said.

Big media companies do not want significant changes to the viewing landscape, where major networks front the costs for the most expensive series, and cable networks commission lower budget programs and repurpose off-network content.  Pay television providers bundle the entire lineup into an enormous package consumers pay to receive. That is the way it will stay if they have their say.

“Just because consumers would rather get individual channels a-la-carte, on-demand, and streamed — only what they want to pay for — [if they think] that is inevitably the way the world if going to evolve, not so fast,” Moffett said. “It may be the way consumers want it and it may be the way technologists want it, but the media companies have a say here.”

“There is no way they are going to voluntarily unbundle themselves,” Moffett said.

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Moffett on Cable Operators 4-30-12.mp4[/flv]

Craig Moffett talks about the current state of the media business on Bloomberg News.  He sees trouble ahead for online video streaming, as powerful media and entertainment content distribution companies reposition themselves to better control their content… and the revenue it earns.  The big winners: Cable operators, Hollywood, and major cable networks.  The losers: Consumers, Netflix, Hulu, and free video streaming. (11 minutes)

[flv width=”360″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Bloomberg Martin Sees End of Free Streaming TV Content 5-4-12.mp4[/flv]

Laura Martin with Needham & Co. predicts the imminent demise of free video streaming. Media companies can’t handle the loss of control over their programming, and the erosion of viewers (and ad revenue) it brings.  Martin tells Bloomberg News she sees a future of paywalls blocking access to an increasing amount of online video content.  (5 minutes)

Highlights:

• Company still losing video customers, but picking up phone customers (on the cheap), and winning with broadband;
• Broadband consumption pricing still CEO’s favorite flavor of Internet billing, but only for other people’s content;
• Broadband speed matters, as Time Warner continues to win over dissatisfied DSL customers;
• ‘If customers love our broadband, we can charge more for it;’
• Verizon/Time Warner’s cooperative marketing agreement starts with discounts but ends with “exclusive product enhancements.”
• The future of Time Warner Cable Wi-Fi.

Time Warner Cable reported unexpectedly strong profits in its first quarter as the company’s broadband services helped stem the losses from departing cable TV customers.

The cable operator told investors it boosted profits 18%, mostly from increasing revenue the company earns selling broadband access to the Internet and convincing customers to add more Time Warner services.

Time Warner Cable said goodbye to 94,000 residential video subscribers last quarter, higher than analysts expected. But that did little damage to earnings because the company picked up an additional 214,000 broadband customers over the same period, most switching from phone company DSL service.

Time Warner Cable’s increasingly aggressive bundled service promotions, particularly on its triple-play offer of cable, broadband, and phone service, even managed to attract 112,000 new landline customers — a significant accomplishment as Americans continue to disconnect traditional phone lines in favor of cell phones.  It also helped increase the average revenue earned per subscriber.  Time Warner Cable pitches double play promotions as low as $79.00 a month. For just $10 a month more, customers can add a third service, and many do.

Most discounts last for one year, but the operator now often sends letters to customers reaching the end of their promotion offering additional, but lower-value discounts going forward. This has limited bill shock for customers surprised by the company’s regular prices. It also might reduce the urge for customers to shop around for a better deal.

Judging from the company’s financial results, most customers hang on to Time Warner Cable’s broadband regardless of price, if the competition happens to be traditional DSL from the phone company. In fact, as phone and cable companies realize they have sold broadband to virtually every home in their service area that wants it, growth in subscriber numbers going forward largely depends on poaching customers from someone else.  Nobody makes that easier than phone companies trying to sell customers DSL with speeds under 10Mbps.  According to CEO Glenn Britt, Time Warner Cable picked up more new broadband customers than Verizon and AT&T combined.

Time Warner Cable broadband speeds give headaches to phone companies trying to sell traditional DSL.

While phone companies continue to argue that speeds don’t matter (at least for their DSL product line), Time Warner believes otherwise and apparently so do their new customers.  The company reports that almost two-thirds of those dumping DSL said their old service was too slow.

Much of the company’s growth in broadband revenue is also coming from the high end, as customers increasingly gravitate towards faster broadband speed tiers.

Britt

Residential DOCSIS 3 (Extreme/Ultimate) customers increased 50% to 218,000, and almost 66% of new broadband customers signed up for either Turbo (20Mbps), Extreme (30Mbps) or Ultimate (50Mbps) service.  Together, these customers now make up 20% of Time Warner’s broadband subscribers, up from less than 16% a year earlier.

Customers are willing to pay higher prices for faster service, a point not lost on Britt, who noted that once customers perceive broadband has more and more value, the company can charge more for it over time.

If Britt’s steadfast belief in Internet Overcharging-consumption billing schemes holds true, some customers might find they are charged substantially more if the company decided to discontinue offering unlimited Internet service.

For now, the company plans to continue its experiments in consumption billing through its Internet Essentials program, now testing in South Texas, which limits customers to 5GB of usage per month before overlimit fees kick in.  But going forward:

“I think we’ve been pretty clear about this, we do think over time, there will be consumption element to the tiers,” Britt said.

But Britt says he wants to keep unlimited access for customers willing to pay for it.

Time Warner's Hotspots in southern California.

“We retained our unlimited tier with no cap (I actually don’t like the term cap),” Britt added. “And I think we should always have that. So that this was not in any way coercive, people who wanted to save money, could. People who wanted to keep what they had have kept it, and they still have unlimited. So our plan is to roll that out further across [the country] as the year goes on.”

Britt noted the company’s own streamed video products would not drain customers’ usage allowances.  But Netflix and other online streamed video would.  Britt adopted the same argument Comcast has used to defend the practice.

“So there’s a set of standards called the IP, Internet Protocol, and those can be used for a wide variety of things in the world,” Britt explains. “There’s also something called the public Internet, which happens to use IP standards. That doesn’t mean those two things are exactly the same. So the application that we have on the iPad is over our closed-circuit network. It’s just a different standard than we’ve used traditionally for our video. But it’s not the public Internet.”

In other developments, the company’s controversial co-marketing agreement with Verizon Wireless has now expanded to four cities: Raleigh, N.C., Cincinnati and Columbus, Ohio, and Kansas City, Mo.

Time Warner Cable executives told investors the early stages of the cooperative marketing agreement will consist of a promotion that includes a $200 gift card when a customer buys both a Verizon Wireless plan and upgrades at least one service on their Time Warner Cable account.  But the company plans to gradually reduce discounts and instead offer unspecified “exclusive product enhancements” that will only be available to customers who subscribe to both services.

Lastly, expect Time Warner Cable to continue aggressive deployment of its Wi-Fi networks in New York and Los Angeles.  The company signaled it intends to construct similar Wi-Fi networks in other cities in serves, but most likely not during 2012.