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Your cable company has a problem.  Collectively, the cable industry has lost more than 2 million video customers over the past year, and the problem may be getting worse.  Some of the largest cable companies in the United States are making excuses for the historic losses:

• The bad economy
• Housing and foreclosure crisis
• High unemployment
• Family budget-cutting

But cable companies should be rethinking their excuses, according to a new report from Strategy Analytics.

“Throughout the past seven consecutive quarters of subscriber losses, the inclination of cable has been to point the finger at various external factors,” said Ben Piper, Director of the Strategy Analytics Multiplay Market Dynamics service. “Our analysis shows that neither the economy nor the housing market is to blame for these subscriber defections. The problem is one of value perception.”

Value perception.  That’s a measurement of whether or not one feels they are getting good value for the money they pay for a product or service.  Value comes in several different forms, starting with emotional — do I feel good, safe, secure, or nostalgic using the service?  Can I imagine life without it?  What about my friends and family — will I stand out if I am not buying this product?  It’s also practical — Can I afford this?  Can I find a cheaper or better alternative?  Do I really need this service anymore?

Tied into value perception is customer goodwill.  If you have an excellent experience with a company, letting go of their products comes much harder.  If you feel forced to deal with a company that has delivered poor and expensive service for years, pent up frustration will make it much easier (and satisfying) to cut them loose at the first opportunity.

Embarq used to be Sprint's pathway to prosperity in the local landline business, until cord cutting put landlines into a death spiral.

In the telecommunications industry, value perception is a proven fact of life.  It began with phone companies.  Formerly a monopoly, landline providers have been forced to try and reinvent themselves and become more customer-friendly.  First long distance companies like Sprint and MCI moved in to deliver cheaper (and often better quality) long distance service.  Sprint even got into the landline business themselves, forming EMBARQ, which at its peak was the largest independent phone company in the United States.  When Voice Over IP providers like Vonage and the cable industry’s “digital phone” products arrived, they promised phone bills cut in half, and introduced the concept of unlimited long distance calling.

The value perception among consumers became clear as they began disconnecting their landlines.  The alternative providers offered cheaper, unlimited calling services, often bundled with phone features the local phone company charged considerably more to receive.  Even though VOIP is technically inferior in call quality in many instances, the value the services provided made the decision to cut the phone cord easier.

But local phone company landline losses would only accelerate with the ubiquity of the cell phone, but for different reasons.  What began with high per-minute charges for wireless calls evolved into larger packages of calling allowances, with plenty of free minutes during nights and weekends, and often free calling to those called the most.  Most Americans end the month with unused calling minutes.  As smartphones gradually take a larger share of the cell phone market, the accompanying higher bills have forced a value perception of a different kind — ‘I can’t afford to keep my landline –and– my cell phone, so I’ll disconnect the landline.’

The cable industry has traditionally faced fewer competitive threats and regularly alienates a considerable number of customers, but still keep their business despite annual rate increases and unwanted channels shoveled into ever-growing packages few people want.

This pent up frustration with the cable company has led to perennial calls for additional competition.  That originally came from satellite television, which involved hardware customers didn’t necessarily like, and no option for a triple play package of phone and broadband service.  The cable industry offers both, and by effectively repricing their products to discourage defections from bundled packages, customers soon discovered the resulting savings from satellite TV were often less than toughing it out with the cable company.

As a result, satellite television has never achieved a share of more than 1/3rd of the video market.  Many satellite customers are in non-cable areas, signed up because of a deeply discounted price promotion, were annoyed with the cable company, or didn’t care about the availability of broadband or phone service.  When the price promotion ends or technical issues arise, many customers switch back to cable.

More recently, researchers like Strategy Analytics have discovered some potential game-changers in the paid video marketplace:

• The impact of broadband-delivered video content
• The Redbox phenomena
• Competition from Telco TV
• The digital television conversion

Strategy Analytics studied consumer perceptions and found customers braver than ever before about their plans to cut cable’s cord.  According to the consumers surveyed, nobody scores lower in value perception than cable companies.  Citing “low value for money,” over half of the cable subscribers surveyed told the research firm they intended to disconnect their cable TV package in the near future.

While other researchers dismiss those high numbers as bravado, there are clear warnings for the industry.

“Much ink has been spilled on the topic of cord cutting and even skeptics are now admitting that it can’t be ignored,” said Piper.

Indeed, Craig Moffett, an analyst with Sanford Bernstein who almost never says a discouraging word about his beloved cable industry, told Ad Age Mediaworks the issue of cord-cutting was real.

“It’s hard to pretend that cord cutting simply isn’t happening,” Moffett said.

Craig E. Moffett, perennial cable stock booster, even admits cord-cutting is real.

The most dramatic impact on the cable industry has been in the ongoing erosion of the number of premium channel subscribers, those willing to pay up to $14 a month for HBO, Cinemax, Showtime, or Starz!.  The reason?  Low value for money.  As HBO loses subscribers, Netflix and Redbox gain many of them.  Netflix still delivers a considerable number of movies by mail, but has an increasingly large library of instant viewing options over broadband connections.  Strategically placed Redbox kiosks deliver a convenient, and budget-minded alternative.

The loss of real wage growth, the housing collapse, and the down-turned economy do put pricing pressures on the industry, but some cable executives hope the time-honored tradition of customers howling about rate increases without ever actually dropping cable service continues.

But as new platforms emerge, some delivering actual pricing competition to the cable TV package, increasing numbers of customers are willing to take their video business somewhere else.  Some are stopped at the last minute with a heavily discounted customer retention pricing package, but that doesn’t keep them from sampling alternative online video options.  Among those who actually do leave, some are satisfied with the increased number of channels they get for free over-the-air after America’s digital television conversion.

Many others are switching to new offerings from telephone companies.  Both AT&T and Verizon deliver video packages to many of their customers, often at introductory prices dramatically lower than their current cable TV bill.  When considering a bill for $160 for phone, video, and broadband from the cable company or $99 for the same services from the phone company, $60 a month in savings for the first year or two is quite a value perception, and the inevitable disconnect order is placed with the cable company.

Ad Age‘s own survey, more skeptical about cord-cutting, confirmed that many former cable TV customers left for budgetary reasons, but many also kept their triple play packages.  They just bought them from someone else.

Also confirmed: a dramatic upswing in online viewing, sometimes paid but often ad-supported or free.

Strategy Analysts concludes in its report, available for $1,999, that the ongoing erosion of cable TV subscribers isn’t irreversible, but it requires urgency among providers to become more customer-friendly and increase the all-important value perception.

In other words: respecting the needs and wishes of your customers.

Thankfully, the cable industry is dealing with competitors like AT&T, who are willing to assassinate their current lead in value perception by slapping Internet Overcharging pricing schemes on their broadband service.  That will certainly raise the ire of their DSL and U-verse customers, many who are treating the customer unfriendly usage limits as an invitation to leave.  Their former cable companies are waiting to welcome them back.  The real question remains, will cable customers now be treated better?

Du Quoin, Ill.

Remember when your cable system delivered 60 basic cable channels with a handful of premium services, none in High Definition?  The people of Du Quoin, Ill. do — to this day.

They, along with several other small southern Illinois communities served by Comcast, are living a wired life free from HD programming, cable networks many take for granted, and a quality of service that has diminished as an aging cable system outlives its useful life.

Now the commissioner of Du Quoin has put Comcast’s franchise “on hold” until the cable company updates service for the town’s 6,500 residents.

Commissioner Rex Duncan told the city council last week he’s fed up with Comcast’s lack of interest in delivering even a handful of HD channels to subscribers, even as the company moves channels that used to be part of the basic cable lineup to a new tier that requires the rental of a digital converter box.

Until Comcast decides to invest in upgrades in the area, De Quoin joins the cities of Pinckneyville, Benton and Christopher and the villages of Tamaroa and Buckner in refusing franchise renewal requests from the cable operator.

Reviewing the lineup in Du Quoin shows subscribers confined to receiving the same number of channels most cities had more than 15 years ago.  Not a single HD channel is included.  Broadband customers can choose from two promoted packages, one promising “up to” 15Mbps and the other claiming 20Mbps with the PowerBoost feature.  But few residents actually see those speeds according to one of our readers.

Sid, a lifelong resident of De Quoin, says speeds approaching 7Mbps are more typical, except at night when they drop.

“I don’t think Comcast has changed a thing in southern Illnois in over a decade,” Sid shares.  “The company’s cable TV lineup still thinks it’s 1992 — we are lucky we even have broadband.”

Residents have complained regularly to local officials about Comcast’s performance in the region, especially when they compare the service they receive with what residents in nearby Carbondale, the self-styled “capital of southern Illinois” receive.

“I realize southern Illinois is between nothing and nowhere, with large cities like St. Louis and Evansville whole states away, but considering how many people depend on Comcast to get reasonable reception of local stations pretty far out, they do a good business here,” Sid says.

Sid does not expect many upgrades in the near future, either to his cable or broadband service.

“DOCSIS 3?  What is that?”

Time Warner Cable’s new free iPad application, giving authenticated cable customers a selection of live cable channels to watch on the portable device, crashed under heavy demand last evening, hours after the company unveiled it in a mass e-mail campaign to customers.

Time Warner Cable TV for iPad is Time Warner’s first serious effort at delivering a cable TV experience to an online audience, initially streaming 31 cable channels in HD to customers who pay for both cable television and broadband from the company.

Several of the featured networks were part of earlier contract battles with the cable company. Scripps-Howard’s Food Network and HGTV are there, as is Fox’s FX and Fox News.  Some smaller “less-connected” networks like Hallmark Channel also made the cut.  Comcast-NBC’s networks also have a prominent place, including Bravo and CNBC.  All four major cable news channels are included.  Time Warner has been making a point to negotiate for on-demand and streaming rights with cable networks as part of contract negotiations.

Channel Lineup

Requirements

• iPad™ with iOS 4.
• Time Warner Cable video package at the Standard (Expanded Basic) level or higher.
• Time Warner Cable Internet Service (Road Runner^® Standard or higher recommended for best experience. EarthLink^® High Speed or EarthLink^® Cable Max is also supported).

[flv width=”416″ height=”254″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/TV for iPad Time Warner Cable Ad.flv[/flv]

Time Warner Cable advertises its new iPad app for online viewing.  (15 seconds)

Time Warner Cable's new app for the iPad delivers 31 channels of live cable network viewing for free -if- you are a cable subscriber willing to watch from home.

Plenty of channels are missing though, including local broadcasters, Turner Broadcasting-owned networks like TNT and Turner Classic Movies, and sports networks.

But the most obvious limitation is that the service only works from inside of your own home, over a Time Warner Wi-Fi broadband connection.  You cannot take your viewing on-the-go.  This limitation seemed curious, considering other companies provide similar online viewing apps that can be used anywhere a wireless connection exists. 

Despite the limits, AdWeek reports several unnamed cable networks fired off warning shots yesterday to Time Warner Cable executives warning them they were streaming networks without permission.

Network legal reps are issuing a flock of heated missives to the nation’s No. 2 cable operator, calling for an immediate halt to a new service that allows subscribers to stream video content to iPads and other tablet devices. Although Time Warner Cable introduced the free app just 24 hours ago, a number of cable network groups have already made it abundantly clear that they had not signed off on any such distribution arrangement.

[…] “Distribution via any sort of third-party app is not addressed in our carriage deals with Time Warner Cable or any other operator,” said one affiliate chief. “There is going to be a messy dissection of what the rights are, but our position is that [this sort of distribution] is not authorized by our affiliate agreements.”

TWC CEO Glenn Britt has cautiously navigated the syntactic rapids, offering carefully worded assessments about the nature of the service. “Certainly all the business structures with the owners of copyrights are not fully in place, but you can begin to see a very exciting future for this set of industries and for the American consumer,” Britt said last August, after announcing plans to bow the iPad app. “There is great potential in all these devices…But it’s also a complicated process.”

Cable networks are concerned viewers who are not authenticated cable subscribers could get free access to programming from account sharing.  But considering Time Warner Cable has locked down viewing to inside the home for the time being, it is unlikely Time Warner Cable faces the same degree of wrath that could be heaped on Comcast and satellite dish TV providers who deliver apps that permit anywhere-viewing.

Time Warner Cable's new iPad app crashed under a heavy load last night.

The cable company’s heavy promotion of the newly-available app in mass e-mail announcements was probably a mistake, however.  The online viewing party came to a rapid end last night when the company’s servers, unprepared for the demand, ended up turning away many would-be viewers.

Jeff Simmermon, director of digital communications for the cable company, said they did not anticipate the level of demand they got last night.

“At about 8 o’clock last night the app crashed under a much heavier load than we anticipated. Our engineering team is working as hard as they can to put a fix in place and get everything up and running as soon as they can,” Simmermon wrote on Time Warner’s blog.

“For the time being, the app is running with only 15 channels. We have found that by temporarily reducing the number of available channels, we can ease strain on the authentication process. This will enable us to offer at least some sort of an experience to our customers while we get a fix in place. We’ll add the other 17 channels back in as soon as we can fix the underlying issue, and we’ll be adding more channels in future iterations of the app as well.”

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/BTIG Time Warner Cable iPad App.flv[/flv]

Rich Greenfield demonstrates Time Warner’s new iPad app.  (3 minutes)

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WCPO Cincinnati Can Google TV Replace Cable 2-18-11.flv[/flv]

Can Google TV replace your monthly cable bill?  WCPO-TV in Cincinnati explores whether the time is right for getting rid of cable television.  (3 minutes)

"Too rich for my blood."

How do you cushion the blow of a 46-percent rate increase for your fiber-optic television service that will cause consumers to flee?  Don’t tell them about it.

Regulators in the Pacific Northwest are beside themselves over news that their new local phone company, Frontier Communications, is going to raise rates $30 or more for its FiOS cable television service.  The company earlier promised no rate increases as a result of its purchase of landlines from Verizon.

But the only way customers in Oregon know about the impending rate hike is from The Oregonian newspaper; Frontier has yet to formally notify subscribers of the dramatic price hike.

The newspaper reports the higher rates were supposed to take effect at the beginning of the year for new customers, and Feb. 18 for current customers with expiring contracts.

But Frontier has not yet notified its customers of the rate increases.  Spokeswoman Stephanie Beasly told the paper the company was working on “specific messaging.”  Namely, how does Frontier tell customers their bills are going up $30 and still have them as customers after that.

Until the deck chairs can be re-arranged, the rate increase will not take effect.  But Beasly emphasized it eventually will.

Washington County regulators (in Oregon state) are questioning Frontier’s justification for the rate hikes, namely “increased programming costs,” noting their competitors are charging far less for the same type of service:

Bend Broadband, an Oregon system providing a similar level of programming and services as Frontier, is able to manage its costs and keep subscriber rates at or below the range of large cable operators and significantly below those that Frontier has announced.

Some regulators are wondering if they were deceived by the company’s earlier promises to deliver “competitive prices” in the region.  Metropolitan Area Communications Commission administrator Bruce Crest wrote the company suggesting they are not living up to their end of the deal:

However, Frontier’s recent decision to place a significant and unjustified rate increase on its customers, along with the incongruity of Frontier’s justification for that increase against the statements made in 2009 and 2010, makes us question whether Frontier has, or ever had, a good faith commitment to fulfill the terms of the franchise.

Frontier responded to the Commission’s inquiry by essentially telling them to bug off — they have no authority to question Frontier’s prices. Company vice-president Steven Crosby waved-off MACC’s concerns:

While Frontier recognizes that the MACC is interested in any Frontier FiOS video price increases and alternative offerings Frontier provides to its customers, Frontier respectfully notes that the MACC does not have authority to regulate the rates Frontier may charge for FiOS video service, nor does the MACC have authority to regulate Frontier’s commercial relationships with content providers. Accordingly, Frontier reserves the right to decline to respond to inquiries directed to topics that are beyond the MACC’s jurisdiction and may be competitively sensitive. Furthermore, Frontier objects to the MACC’s letter of January 20th to the extent that it contains characterizations and questions that misstate facts and conclusions or are otherwise misleading.

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MACC Letter to Frontier FiOS