While wireless providers currently treat Wi-Fi as a friendly way to offload wireless data traffic from their 3G and 4G networks, the wireless industry is starting to ponder whether they can also earn additional profits from regulating your use of it.

Dean Bubley has written a white paper for the wireless industry exploring Wi-Fi use by smartphone owners, and ways the industry can potentially cash in on it.

“It is becoming increasingly clear that Wi-Fi access will be a strategic part of mobile operators’ future network plans,” Bubley writes. “There are multiple use cases, ranging from offloading congested cells, through to reducing overseas roaming costs and innovative in-venue services.”

Bubley’s paper explores the recent history of some cell phone providers aggressively trying to offload traffic from their congested 3G networks to more-grounded Wi-Fi networks.

Among the most intent:

• AT&T, which acquired Wayport, a major Wireless ISP, and is placing Wi-Fi hotspots at various venues and in high traffic tourist areas in major cities and wants to seamlessly switch Apple iPhone users to Wi-Fi, where available, whenever possible;
• PCCW in Hong Kong;
• KT in the Republic of Korea, which has moved as much as 67 percent of its data traffic to Wi-Fi;
• KDDI in Japan, which is planning to deploy as many as 100,000 Wi-Fi Hotspots across the country.

America's most aggressive data offloader is pushing more and more customers to using their Wi-Fi Hotspots.

Bubley says the congestion some carriers experience isn’t necessarily from users downloading too much or watching too many online shows.  Instead, it comes from “signalling congestion,” caused when a smartphone’s applications demand repeated attention from the carrier’s network.  An application that requires regular, but short IP traffic connections, can pose a bigger problem than a user simply downloading a file.  Moving this traffic to Wi-Fi can be a real resource-saver for wireless carriers.

Bubley notes many wireless companies would like to charge third-party developers fees to allow them access to each provider’s “app store.”  Applications that consume a lot of resources could be charged more by providers (or banned altogether), while those that “behave well” could theoretically be charged a lower fee.  The only thing preventing this type of a “two-sided business model,” charging both developers and consumers for the applications that work on smartphones, are Net Neutrality policies (or the threat of them) in many countries.

Instead, Bubley suggests, carriers should be more open and helpful with third party developers to assist them in developing more efficient applications on a voluntary basis.

Bubley also ponders future business strategies for Wi-Fi.  He explores the next generation of Wi-Fi networks that allow users to establish automatic connections to the best possible signal without ponderous log-in screens, and new clients that can intelligently search out and connect to approved networks without user intervention.  That means data traffic could theoretically be shifted to any authenticated or preferred Wi-Fi network without users having to mess with the phone’s settings.  At the same time, that same technology could be used to keep customers off of free, third party Wi-Fi networks, in favor of networks operators run themselves.

Policy controls are a major focus of Bubley’s paper.  While he advocates for customer-friendly use of such controls, sophisticated network management tools can also be used to make a fortune for wireless providers who want to nickle and dime customers to death with usage fees, or open up new markets pitching Wi-Fi networks to new customers.

Bubley

For example, a wireless carrier could sell a retail store ready-to-run Wi-Fi that pushes customers to a well-controlled, store-run network while customers shop — a network that forbids access to competitors or online merchants, in an effort to curtail browsing for items while comparing prices (or worse ordering) online from a competitor.

Customers could also face smartphones programmed to connect automatically to a Wi-Fi network, while excluding access to others while a “preferred” network is in range.  Wireless carriers could develop the same Internet Overcharging schemes for Wi-Fi use that they have rolled out for 3G and 4G wireless network access.  Also available: speed throttles for “non-preferred” applications, speed controls for less-valued ‘heavy users,’ and establishment of extra-fee “roaming charges” for using a non-preferred Wi-Fi network.

Bubley warns carriers not to go too far.

“[We] believe that operators need to internalize the concept of ‘WiFiNeutrality’ – actively blocking or impeding the user’s choice of hotspot or private Wi-Fi is likely to be as divisive and controversial as blocking particular Internet services,” Bubley writes.

In a blog entry, Bubley expands on this concept:

I’m increasingly convinced that mobile device / computing users will need sophisticated WiFi connection management tools in the near future. Specifically, ones that allow them to choose between multiple possible accesses in any given location, based on a variety of parameters. I’m also doubtful that anyone will want to allow a specific service provider’s software to take control and choose for them – at least not always.

We may see the emergence of “WiFi Neutrality” as an issue, if particular WiFi accesses start to be either blocked or “policy-managed” aggressively.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/The Future of Wi-Fi.flv[/flv]

Edgar Figueroa, chief executive officer of The Wi-Fi Alliance, speaks about the future of Wi-Fi. Wi-Fi technology has matured dramatically since its introduction more than a decade ago and today we find Wi-Fi in a wide variety of applications, devices and environments.  (3 minutes)

New Zealand is one of a handful of countries stuck with pervasive Internet Overcharging schemes that limit usage or throttle broadband speeds because of international connectivity limitations.  But as international underseas fiber cables ease traffic congestion, Internet Service Providers are increasingly relaxing usage caps and reducing the level of speed throttling during prime time usage hours.

Now one ISP, Slingshot, has gone all-out, reintroducing an unlimited, flat rate broadband option for New Zealanders who don’t want to worry about how much usage they’ve racked up over the past month.

For roughly $32.50US for the first six months, $65 after that, customers don’t have to watch a usage meter or “gas gauge” or face a wholesale heavy speed throttle when deemed to be using “too much” Internet service.

Leap Wireless is trying to save face on less-than-impressive second quarter financial results showing the company is losing its mobile broadband customers who are increasingly weary of Cricket’s price increases and speed throttles.

The company lost at least 132,000 broadband customers since the first quarter, mostly due to price increases, reduced usage allowances and “network management” practices, which reduce speeds to near dial-up for customers who are deemed to be “using too much.”

“On broadband, we tightened our focus to more profitable customers while shedding less profitable ones,” said Leap Wireless CEO Douglas Hutcheson.

Internet Overcharging Facts of Life: What 'Network Management' tools are really used for. (Courtesy: Cricket's Second Quarter Results Investor Presentation)

Cricket recently announced increased pricing on their usage limited plans: $45/month for 2.5GB, $55/month for 5GB, or $65/month for 7.5GB.

With a less-than-robust regional 3G network and higher pricing, broadband customers have decided to take their business elsewhere, despite the company’s recently announced expanded data roaming agreement with Sprint.

Cricket acknowledges their “increased network management initiatives” are partly to blame for the loss, but the company also says increased prices for mobile broadband devices, which used to be available for free after rebate, are also responsible.  Cricket’s least expensive mobile broadband modem now runs just under $90.

Company officials told investors the losses “were expected,” and that the company has been trying to make up the difference with higher value smartphone data plans.  Mobile broadband customers tend to consume more data than smartphone users, so the company’s emphasis on smartphone data users, who use less, will deliver increased revenue at a reduced cost.

Cricket’s CEO explains the company’s renewed focus on keeping highly-profitable mobile broadband customers while effectively getting rid of “heavy users” who have been targeted with aggressive speed throttling over the past year, and now face higher prices for lower usage allowances. Also explored: Cricket’s future 4G LTE network buildout.  August 3, 2011.  (4 minutes)
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Cricket's declining mobile broadband business

In fact, the company’s presentation to investors credits network management tools for driving away “higher usage customers,” allowing Cricket to reap the benefit of “improved revenue yield per gigabyte.”  In short, that means Cricket profits handsomely from data plans they hope customers will only occasionally use.

One of Cricket’s biggest product priorities this year is pitching its Muve Music service, bundled into an all-inclusive $55 wireless prepaid phone plan.  It gives Muve phone customers unlimited access to an enormous downloadable music library accessed on the phone.  Since the service does not allow customers to transfer the music to other devices, record companies are happy to participate.

The biggest downside for some is that the Muve phone becomes your music player — a phone many customers consider a work in progress.  Some critics have labeled the service a “total fail” because of sound quality and DRM restrictions. But since the service is already bundled into the wireless plan at no additional cost, more than 100,000 customers are using it, downloading at least 130 million songs since it was first introduced in January.

Muve Music is another way Cricket is trying to differentiate itself from other wireless providers, and the company may try to expand the Muve Music service to much-more-profitable smartphones in the near future. Cricket hopes to begin selling no-contract smartphones at prices below $100 by Christmas.

Cricket executives answer questions from Wall Street about how the company intends to deal with a decline in mobile broadband customers, and explains their use of network speed throttles. Cricket plans to “follow industry trends” and experiment with “session-based” throttles sometime next year. These allow customers to pay an extra charge to temporarily remove the speed throttle when they need additional bandwidth. It’s just one more source of lucrative revenue from conjured up network management schemes.  August 3, 2011.  (4 minutes)
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Cricket is also planning further expansion of its ‘welfare wireless’ plan — a Universal Service Fund-backed home phone replacement for customers receiving public assistance.  The Lifeline USF subsidy is designed to provide affordable home telephone service to the most income-challenged among us.  Many landline providers charge around $1 a month for the service (before fees), and then charge for every call made.

Cricket’s implementation of this subsidy could draw some controversy because it delivers a $13.50 monthly discount off -any- of their rate plans.  That means qualified customers could pay just over $40 a month for a high end smartphone service plan, subsidized by every telephone ratepayer in the country.

Cricket also plans to launch LTE 4G service starting in early 2012.

Cricket plans to introduce 4G LTE service in 2012.

Loyal AT&T customers grandfathered on unlimited data plans are being paid back for their loyalty to the company with the threat of a speed throttle hanging over their heads if they don’t limit the use of their unlimited use plan.

The Washington Post reports, by AT&T’s calculations, anyone using 4GB of usage and up during the month is likely to find their smartphone neutered to near dial-up speed for the rest of the month:

The company said that it will throttle back data use for the top 5 percent of data consumers, who use “twelve times” what its average smartphone data customers use.

A recent Consumer Reports survey found that the average smartphone user on AT&T’s network uses 360 megabytes per month — meaning that only power users will feel the pinch. Using AT&T’s formula, the company’s likely scaling back its network for users who exceed 4 gigabytes per month.

Four gigabytes of usage on a smartphone is a considerable amount, if all you do is browse web pages, read e-mail, and access a handful of apps.  But consumers who increasingly rely on GPS navigation and streaming multimedia content, particularly videos, will find they don’t have to live on their smartphones to put themselves on AT&T’s bad side.  Even devoted attention to video streams from a home security system could consume a considerable amount of data on a usage plan that was supposed to be unlimited.

“It’s a slap in the face to loyal customers who have been with AT&T for a decade or longer,” says Stop the Cap! reader Paul.  “Wireless providers used to operate on rewarding loyalty by letting customers keep their plans intact unless and until they change plans or depart for another provider.  Now AT&T is literally cattle-prodding their most loyal customers who pay $30 a month for an unlimited plan that will now have limits.”

Paul wonders why anyone would want to keep an unlimited plan that will be throttled to punish customers with unusable speeds.

“Clearly, Verizon moving away from unlimited data allowed AT&T to stick it to customers who know they have few places to run,” Paul writes. “This is probably only the beginning.  Why again would we want AT&T to get any bigger than it already is?”

AT&T's new choke collar for "unlimited use" data plan customers, ready for wearing Oct. 1

Now that Verizon Wireless has stopped signing up new customers for its unlimited usage data plan, AT&T plans to start targeting its grandfathered unlimited-data customers with speed throttles that will effectively limit the company’s “unlimited use” plan.  And the company is trying to suggest approval of its merger with T-Mobile might prevent its growing use.

AT&T says effective Oct. 1, the top 5 percent of its wireless users will receive a warning message before their speeds are cut to near-dial up for the remainder of the billing cycle.

“We’re taking steps to manage exploding demand for mobile data,” said the company in a statement.  AT&T added that “nothing short of completing the T-Mobile merger” will effectively solve the company’s network capacity issues.

“The planned combination of AT&T and T-Mobile is the fastest and surest way to handle the challenge of increasing demand and improving network quality for customers,” said AT&T.

With Verizon Wireless’ exit as a competitive alternative for unlimited data, AT&T’s newly announced speed throttle may not pose much of a risk for business when implemented, as infuriated customers have just one remaining provider offering unlimited data – Sprint.

While AT&T has not specified an exact amount of data usage that will put users in the penalty corner, they did say most of those facing throttling are “streaming video or playing some online games.”

Some AT&T customers use their unlimited wireless plans as a home broadband replacement — an action that could easily bring back a dial-up experience when the speed throttle kicks in.

Only customers on “unlimited use” plans will face AT&T’s special speed treatment.  Those paying for usage-limited packages are exempt.

AT&T’s ongoing hard-sell for the merger has not been well-received by some on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Al Franken (D-Minn.) blamed AT&T for its lack of willingness to spend money on improving its own network infrastructure for self-inflicted network capacity problems.  Franken believes the merger would be anti-competitive and anti-consumer.

In letters to the Department of Justice and Federal Communications Commission, Franken spelled out in great detail why approving the merger does not make sense:

“The competitive effects of a merger of this size and scope will reverberate throughout the telecommunications sector for decades to come and will affect consumer prices, customer service, innovation, competition in handsets and the quality and quantity of network coverage. These threats are too large and too irrevocable to be prevented or alleviated by conditions,” wrote Franken.

The International Business Times summarized many of Franken’s larger points:

• AT&T owns more spectrum than any other company, yet AT&T has been plagued with delays in rolling out infrastructure to support spectrum it has been allocated.  The quality of the service it provides is consistently ranked last amongst the national carriers, and it continues to use spectrum in an inefficient manner;
• Many of [AT&T’s] spectrum licenses remain undeveloped, including $9 billion worth of some of the most valuable “beachfront” spectrum;
• Other national wireless carriers have been aggressively preparing for this crunch. However, unlike the other wireless providers, AT&T has not visibly taken decisive steps to prepare for the coming crunch, despite the fact that AT&T should have recognized the need for additional investment shortly after introducing the iPhone in 2007;
• AT&T only increased its spending on wireless infrastructure by one percent in 2009. Although AT&T will point out that one percent is still a significant number, Verizon made the decision to increase its capital spending by 10 percent in 2009/9 and Verizon is now in a much better position when it comes to spectrum capacity.