Verizon Wireless is expected to unveil three new data plans on January 18th, including a new smartphone-mandatory “unlimited broadband” 3G plan priced at $29.99 per month, according to documents obtained by Broadband Reports.

The documents, provided by a Verizon Wireless employee, show the company is moving towards mandating all of their customers select some sort of data plan as part of their monthly service.  But unlike some wireless providers that leave options open to customers, Verizon wants to herd customers into data plans based on the types of phones they use:

• Simple Phones: Basic handsets that are designed for making and receiving phone calls and sending quick text messages from a numeric keypad, typically at older network standard speeds;
• 3G Multimedia: 3G-capable phones that may include a simple keyboard, and are designed for simpler text messaging and occasional data access;
• 3G Smartphones: Blackberry, Android, Windows-capable, and eventually the iPhone all qualify for this classification.

Verizon Wireless formerly offered a paltry 25MB package for $9.99 with a 50 cents per megabyte overlimit fee and a stingy 75MB package for $19.99 per month with a 30 cents per megabyte overlimit fee.  These might be suitable for someone trying to navigate a mobile web browser on an older generation phone from a numeric keyboard, but were priced unattractively for those with more advanced phones.

The 75MB package appears to be history after January 18th, but the 25MB package will remain with a reduced overlimit fee of 20 cents per megabyte (that’s an incredible $200 per gigabyte) .  Customers who don’t want -any- data plan for their basic wireless phone will be forced onto Verizon’s “pay as you go” plan, which charges $1.99 per megabyte.  It’s this plan that subjects customers to those $1.99 mysterious “data charges” on their bill, caused when a customer invokes the phone’s web browser (intentionally or otherwise, if you believe customers.)

Customers who don’t own smartphones and don’t use their phones to access many data services will find themselves being corralled into one of Verizon’s new data plans, whether they like it or not, once they try and renew their contract or make “certain account changes” under their existing contract.  If you’re a smartphone user, your choice will be the $29.99 unlimited data plan or the $29.99 unlimited data plan.  In other words, smartphone customers don’t get a choice.  Only owners of more basic phones will be able to choose from overpriced “pay as you go” service, a paltry 25MB offering, or what the company will upsell as the “best value” — the $29.99 unlimited plan.

“Even some basic phones such as the LG VX8360 will require data plans starting the 18th,” says Broadband Reports‘ tipster. Some examples of 3G Multimedia phones: LG Chocolate Touch, LG enV3, LG enV Touch, LG VX8360, Motorola Entice, Motorola Rival, Samsung Rogue, Samsung Alias2 and Nokia Twist.

The launch of an unlimited data plan on Verizon Wireless’ 3G network will make Apple happy.  The iPhone manufacturer has reportedly advocated generous data plans for iPhone customers who find themselves required to purchase plans for both voice calling and data with AT&T.  If the iPhone’s arrival on Verizon Wireless’ network is imminent this summer, having an unlimited data plan available to customers would make sense.

Although the fine print isn’t available to us, Karl Bode at Broadband Reports notes the documents he’s seen indicate no hidden usage cap, like AT&T’s formerly advertised “unlimited” plans that were limited to 5GB in the fine print.

Broadband Reports ran an exclusive story this morning breaking the news about Verizon's new data plans.

Still, for customers pushed into purchasing a data plan they may not want, it’s another case of Internet Overcharging.  That’s particularly true with Verizon, which claims to be a proponent of “paying for what you use,” yet still doesn’t offer all of their customers that option.  Instead, customers who don’t want to pony up $29.99 a month (or don’t have to because they don’t own a smartphone) are stuck paying for overpriced “pay as you go” plans or a paltry 25MB plan priced not to sell.  Even their “unlimited” plan may not last for long.  As Verizon Wireless works towards their 4G network launch, unlimited pricing may never be a part of it.

The Verizon Wireless documents explain what’s really happening here when it instructs employees pushing data plans to up-sell customers: “think of how dissatisfied they would be if they received their bill with excessive Pay As You Go charges!”  That is a powerful tool to motivate customers to choose a more expensive plan they may not need or want, just to protect themselves from the nasty surprise of an enormous bill at the end of the month.

With the evolving wireless phone marketplace now opening up new options for consumers to bypass the wireless company’s own products and services, overcharging consumers for accessing competitors’ products on their network guarantees a nice payday for Verizon Wireless no matter how you use your phone.

It’s why year after year, despite an increasing number of minutes thrown into your plan’s bucket, your cell phone bill never seems to actually decrease.  After all of the additional add-ons, surcharges, and fees attached to the bill, it has become easier than ever to approach $100 a month for cell phone service in the United States.

Phillip Dampier

Verizon Wireless’s next generation LTE wireless broadband network threatens to bring expensive “usage-based billing” to millions of Americans using technology products that depend on wireless networking to communicate  — from the handheld tablet you use to enjoy USA Today over morning coffee, the car that delivers news, weather and traffic reports to and from work, to the portable television you use to catch up with the game while running around town.

At the Consumer Electronics Show, Verizon chief technology officer Dick Lynch warned that Verizon is likely to abandon any notion of flat rate usage pricing, particularly when Verizon doesn’t get a piece of the action from the sale of the devices that connect to their network.

Instead, Verizon Wireless will adopt a wireless version of Internet Overcharging — usage-based billing that isn’t entirely “usage-based.”

A true consumption billing system charges consumers only for what they use — don’t use the service that month and customers would pay little or nothing for service that billing period.  Instead, providers maximize revenue with arbitrary “usage allowances” which are part of the steep monthly service fee.  The unused portion of the allowance typically does not roll over, in effect lost at the end of the month.  That means you pay for not using their network.  Imagine if your electric company charged you for leaving the lights on 24/7, but you were out of town that month.  If you exceed your allowance, the overlimit penalty kicks in, and most providers set those prices high enough to sting you while rewarding them.

“The problem we have today with flat-based usage is that you are trying to encourage customers to be efficient in use and applications but you are getting some people who are bandwidth hogs using gigabytes a month and they are paying something like megabytes a month,” Lynch said. “That isn’t long-term sustainable. Why should customers using an average amount of bandwidth be subsidizing bandwidth hogs?”

Lynch

The first step to broadband pricing enlightenment is to recognize the only true “hog” here is the broadband provider with an endless appetite for your money.  Usage-based pricing schemes carry the one-two punch for consumers, with no pain for providers:

1. They discourage usage, as consumers fear using up their monthly allowance and getting socked with an enormous bill filled with penalties and overlimit fees;
2. The corresponding reduction in usage lowers the providers’ capital spending requirements to meet consumer demand, and increase profits dramatically from those who find allowances too limiting and are willing to pay the exorbitant pricing providers charge those who exceed them.

Does Verizon actually believe that $60 a month for their wireless broadband service represents a fair price for someone using “something like megabytes a month?”  Can Verizon show it is losing money on its wireless broadband service?  I think not.

Predictably, Lynch provides a “between-the-lines” slap at government intervention to force open wireless networks to additional competition in the equipment marketplace:

“The whole paradigm of how we sell devices into the public is changing,” Lynch said. “At the same time that we announced LTE, we announced an open development initiative where we encouraged third-party developers to deploy devices on our network.”

That initiative was hardly the result of a sudden change of heart from Verizon.  It came from pressure Washington applied over the “closed network” practices the American wireless industry has followed for years.  Handsets and the applications that run on them have traditionally been closely controlled by providers.  Features built into smartphones and other handsets were disabled or limited by providers before the phones were sold to the public.  Usually, this forced customers to use the services either provided directly by their wireless company, or one of their “affiliated partners.”

Verizon Wireless is signaling the consequence of a more competitive, open market for wireless products and services: usage limits and a higher bill. That’s because you didn’t buy that device at a Verizon store at their asking price, and you’ve been using it too much.

Consumers would make a grave mistake in blaming a more activist watchdog role by the federal government to force open the wireless industry to competition and innovation by third parties.  Despite Verizon’s hints that those pesky regulators in Washington are to blame for your usage being limited and your bill being higher, the blame really belongs with the carriers pocketing those proceeds.

Since regulators will get the blame regardless, isn’t it time to go all out for American consumers by transforming the wireless provider marketplace?  Here are our suggestions:

1. An end to the ongoing consolidation of existing wireless players into a shrinking number of what will soon be two or three “too big to fail” national providers;
2. Insistence on additional competition coming from new, independent players, not simply those directly affiliated with the dominant four carriers (Verizon, AT&T, Sprint, and T-Mobile);
3. Justification for confiscatory data pricing made possible from the highly concentrated wireless marketplace, particularly in smaller cities and communities.

Verizon and AT&T have both engaged in a lot of scare talk about usage and their costs to manage it.  We’d believe them, except we read their financial reports and neither company is hurting.  We’d even be willing to meet them halfway and advocate additional allocations of spectrum to provide the bandwidth an increasingly wireless world will demand, but not at their asking price with those pesky terms and conditions that ration service to consumers at top dollar prices.

Customers in New York City attempting to order an iPhone direct from AT&T's website saw this message over the weekend

While much speculation about this week’s two-day unavailability of the iPhone for those in the Big Apple has often centered on the company running out of capacity, the more likely explanations are far simpler — the regional fulfillment center temporarily ran short after a holiday rush and AT&T wanted to stem the tide of increasing numbers of bottom-feeding eBay resellers doing business in the Tri-State area.

Customers in the New York metropolitan area discovered Saturday they couldn’t order an iPhone from AT&T’s website after entering a New York-area zip code.  Customers were told “we’re sorry, there are no Packages & Deals available at this time — please check back later.”  By Monday afternoon, orders were being processed normally.

The mystery deepened when some blogs began speculating the reason for the order blockade had to do with AT&T’s data capacity in New York City, suggesting the wireless company had reached its limit and halted sales accordingly.  They had the right to speculate if online chats with AT&T sales representatives were to be believed.  The Consumerist found two different explanations during their chats:

Daphne: Welcome to AT&T online Sales support. How may I assist you with placing your order today?

Laura: Hi, I was looking at the iPhone 3Gs and the system tells me that I cannot order one in my ZIP code. My zip code is 11231. (Brooklyn, NY) Is this true? Are iPhones no longer available in New York City?

Daphne: I am happy to be helping you today . Yes, this is correct the phone is not offered to you because New York is not ready for the iPhone.

Daphne: You don’t have enough towers to handle the phone.

Laura: Thank you for your help. So the phone is not available to people anywhere in the city?

Daphne: Yes this is correct Laura.

AT&T didn’t help matters with a non-denial denial issued by AT&T spokesman Fletcher Cook, who said only that the phone company periodically “modifies” its distribution channels. He had no comment about why the company resumed sales.

By not denying the capacity narrative that gained popularity earlier this week, it confirmed it in the popular press, including two local television news reports detailing the ‘sales outage.’

[flv width=”596″ height=”356″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WNBC New York iPhone Sales Stopped 12-28-09.flv[/flv]

WNBC-TV reports on the unavailability of the iPhone in New York and AT&T’s ongoing problems with reception, service, and now PR in the Big Apple. (2 minutes)

With that story feeding the greater narrative that people “love the iPhone, hate the network,” AT&T better get on the phone with Luke Wilson and start taping some new ads.

In reality, Cook’s vague statement is something you’d expect from a spokesman who hasn’t been briefed on what really happened and needed to go with something to placate media speculation.  The data capacity theory would only make sense if the company suspended sales across all channels.  Except they didn’t.  Beyond the post-holiday low inventories found by some shoppers, New Yorkers could still find and purchase the iPhone in AT&T retail stores and through third-party retailers.  One could even order the phone from Apple.  Could unofficial ‘over-eager’ customer service representatives be responsible for the volunteered excuses noted above, either of which would ignite a firestorm of bad press for AT&T?

An increasingly annoying problem confronting cell phone companies is the eBay bottom-feeder and other gray market sales of the popular phone.  Both AT&T and Verizon have had growing problems with resellers who purchase a subsidized smartphone, agree to a two year contract, and immediately cancel it and resell the phone.  And they’ve been cashing in.

AT&T sells a new iPhone 3GS with 16 gigabytes of memory for $199.  When a reseller cancels the contract and keeps the phone, they pay a $175 early termination fee.  That means the phone costs them $374.  They then easily modify the phone to work with other cell phone companies and resell it for upwards of $600 or more on eBay, pocketing a nice $226 in profit.  Demand for the iPhone abroad is high, and considering the value of the dollar remains relatively low, Europeans can snap one up at a fire sale price.  Outside of North America, wireless phone companies don’t discount handsets like the iPhone.

Verizon Wireless has tried to deal with this problem by doubling the early termination fee on smartphones to $350.  That nearly eliminates the profit motive to resell affected phones.

[flv width=”600″ height=”356″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WABC New York iPhone Sales 12-28-09.flv[/flv]

WABC-TV New York calls the latest iPhone mess “salt in the wound” for many New York-area AT&T customers.  (1 minute)

FCC Commissioner Mignon Clyburn

At least one FCC commissioner remains unconvinced that Verizon Wireless’ recent decision to double the fee consumers pay for service cancellation is justified.  Virtually every carrier offering discounts on handsets and other equipment tie those savings to a two year service contract, with a stinging early termination fee (ETF) if one decides to leave before the contract is up.

Commissioner Mignon Clyburn released a public statement Wednesday questioning Verizon’s logic in their explanation that doubling the cancel fee from $175 to $350 helped defray costs ranging from network expansion and marketing to paying to keep the lights on in Verizon Wireless retail stores.  Clyburn called Verizon’s answers unsatisfying at best, alarming at worst.

“I am concerned about what appears to be a shifting and tenuous rationale for ETFs. No longer is the claim that ETFs are tied solely to the true cost of the wireless device; rather, they are now also used to foot the bill for ‘advertising costs, commissions for sales personnel, and store costs.’ Consumers already pay high monthly fees for voice and data designed to cover the costs of doing business. So when they are assessed excessive penalties, especially when they are near the end of their contract term, it is hard for me to believe that the public interest is being well served,” Clyburn wrote in a public statement.

Verizon also continues to get heat over mysterious fees appearing on some Verizon Wireless customer bills.  As Stop the Cap! reported back in September, consumers with basic service plans occasionally find $1.99 “data charges” on their monthly bills, and several have obtained refunds from the carrier after pointing out they do not use data features on their phones.

The mystery was suggested solved when a purported, unnamed Verizon Wireless employee engaged in some whistleblowing at The New York Times:

“The phone is designed in such a way that you can almost never avoid getting $1.99 charge on the bill. Around the OK button on a typical flip phone are the up, down, left, right arrows. If you open the flip and accidentally press the up arrow key, you see that the phone starts to connect to the web. So you hit END right away. Well, too late. You will be charged $1.99 for that 0.02 kilobytes of data. NOT COOL. I’ve had phones for years, and I sometimes do that mistake to this day, as I’m sure you have. Legal, yes; ethical, NO.

“Every month, the 87 million customers will accidentally hit that key a few times a month! That’s over $300 million per month in data revenue off a simple mistake!

“Our marketing, billing, and technical departments are all aware of this. But they have failed to do anything about it—and why? Because if you get 87 million customers to pay $1.99, why stop this revenue? Customer Service might credit you if you call and complain, but this practice is just not right.

“Now, you can ask to have this feature blocked. But even then, if you one of those buttons by accident, your phone transmits data; you get a message that you cannot use the service because it’s blocked–BUT you just used 0.06 kilobytes of data to get that message, so you are now charged $1.99 again!

“They have started training us reps that too many data blocks are being put on accounts now; they’re actually making us take classes called Alternatives to Data Blocks. They do not want all the blocks, because 40% of Verizon’s revenue now comes from data use. I just know there are millions of people out there that don’t even notice this $1.99 on the bill.”

Verizon's new termination fee appears random and capricious, some company critics charge.

Verizon Wireless denies it charges consumers for accidental web usage that lands on their mobile phone home page, which they claim is exempt from charges.  But Clyburn isn’t buying that explanation either.

“I am also alarmed by the fact that many consumers have been charged phantom fees for inadvertently pressing a key on their phones thereby launching Verizon Wireless’s mobile Internet service. The company asserted in its response to the Bureau that it ‘does not charge users when the browser is launched,’ but recent press reports and consumer complaints strongly suggest otherwise,” Clyburn writes.

“These issues cannot be ignored. Wireless communications are an essential part of our lives, linking us to our places of business, our communities, and our loved ones. The bottom line is that wireless companies can truly earn their desired long-term commitments from consumers by focusing primarily on developing innovative products, maintaining affordable prices, and providing excellent customer service. I look forward to exploring this issue in greater depth with my colleagues in the New Year,” she adds.

Verizon Wireless is also the only carrier that has not responded to a campaign by a Times columnist to let customers get rid of the airtime-wasting 15 seconds of voicemail instructions people wait through when trying to leave messages, something the wireless industry admits is there precisely to use up airtime and maximize revenue.

Clyburn joined the Commission this year, appointed by incoming President Barack Obama.  Her father James is the third-ranking Democrat in the House behind House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Majority Leader Steny Hoyer.

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WIVB Buffalo Best and Worst Cell Providers 12-7-09.flv[/flv]

WIVB-TV Buffalo reviewed Consumer Reports’ findings regarding the nation’s best and worst cell phone providers.  Despite Verizon’s controversial fees, it remains top-rated by the magazine’s readers. (12/7/09 – 2 minutes)

AT&T Mobility has been sending out their blogger team to try and clean up the damage from CEO Ralph de la Vega’s not-too-subtle hint that the days of unlimited iPhone data plans are numbered:

Unfortunately, there has been a lot of misinformation, rumor and pure speculation floating out there during the last day on this topic.

[…]

We carry more smartphone data traffic than any other U.S. provider, with traffic growing 5,000 percent over the past three years. As a result, we are working aggressively and investing heavily in our network to support this tremendous growth. Our $17 – $18 billion CapEx spend for 2009 includes:

• Nearly doubling the wireless spectrum serving 3G customers in hundreds of markets across the country, using high-quality 850 MHz spectrum.  This additional spectrum expands overall network capacity and improves in-building reception.
• Adding about 2,000 new cell sites, expanding service to new cities and improving coverage in other areas.
• Adding about 100,000 new backhaul connections, which add critical capacity between cell sites and the global IP backbone network.  We’re doubling the number of fiber-served cell sites this year.
• Enabling widespread access to our Wi-Fi network – the largest in the country with more than 20,000 hotspots in all 50 states – allowing them to take advantage of the best available AT&T mobile broadband connection.
• Rolling out even faster 3G speeds with deployment of HSPA 7.2 technology, with availability in six markets planned by the end of the year.
• Preparing for field trials of next generation, LTE wireless networks next year, with deployment planning to begin in 2011.  This schedule aligns with industry expectations for when a wide variety of compatible 4G wireless devices should be available.

We have seen very positive results from our efforts thus far.  In one of the most common measures of reliability – dropped calls – AT&T’s national performance is within two-tenths of 1 percent of the highest score among major providers as measured by an independent firm, with only 1.32 percent of calls dropped nationally.

Ralph de la Vega

AT&T’s blogger team says it isn’t true that de la Vega is definitively saying he’s “capping” services.

But de la Vega never said in his original statements that he was advocating “capping” service.  He said, “there’s got to be some sort of a pricing scheme that addresses … usage.”  Scheme is right.  That’s code language for consumption or usage-based billing, something the blogger team doesn’t rule out.  A strict usage cap simply says a customer cannot exceed a specified amount.  Most consumption billing schemes monetize data consumption, not with a true pay-for-use system that bills by the megabyte, but rather a fixed monthly price with an allowance and overlimit penalties for exceeding it.  AT&T already uses consumption-based billing for its prepaid and postpaid mobile broadband plans, so extending it to the iPhone isn’t exactly novel.

The iPhone customer has been treated as a profit engine by AT&T since the phone was first introduced.  Compelling customers to purchase a mandatory data plan that was originally priced at $20 and was raised to $30 was the price iPhone customers had to pay for bragging rights.  Should AT&T impose consumption billing, that price may go much higher.

AT&T must believe iPhone users are willing to pay that price or dramatically cut usage.  Either way, AT&T milks the very last nickle out of its exclusivity arrangement that some industry observers believe will expire in the early summer of 2010.  When that happens, AT&T must be quietly pondering what customers will do once they can buy an iPhone from other carriers.

Leafing through January’s issue of Consumer Reports, I find one possible answer in the magazine’s annual survey of America’s best and worst cell phone providers (subscription required for detailed results).  More than 50,000 subscribers rated their wireless carrier, and AT&T turned in dismal ratings, usually ending up at the bottom except in some cities where Sprint achieved that dubious honor.  AT&T’s problems, reported in cities from coast to coast:

• No service where service should exist
• All circuits busy
• Dropped calls
• Static

Results have been so poor, the magazine recommended that those affected should call AT&T and demand credit.  Many customers have gotten at least three months’ worth of service credits valued at more than $200 for doing so.

Logical conclusion: customers love the iPhone but hate the network it is tied to.  With de la Vega’s recent data usage temper tantrum, it’s just one more reason to be annoyed with AT&T.

For customers who entertain the notion of owning an iPhone, but simply refuse to leave their current provider to obtain it, that’s nearly $3,000 left on the table over the life of a two-year contract.  That should concern both Apple and AT&T.  For Apple, it means potentially losing new iPhone customers to impr0ved competing phones, such as those running Google’s Android operating system.  For AT&T, once the Berlin Wall of exclusivity falls and two year contracts expire, years of consumer frustration with their network could lead to a stampede for the exits.