Disgruntled AT&T customers, and those with infinite patience for Apple’s iPhone on Verizon Wireless’ network — your long wait appears to finally be over.

After nearly a year of speculation, Verizon Wireless is expected to announce the imminent arrival of the coveted smartphone on the nation’s largest wireless carrier at a press event tomorrow.

The Verizon version of the iPhone could come at a price premium, with some anticipating the entry level version of the phone could be priced as high as $249 — $50 higher than with AT&T.  The usual two year contract applies.

Analysts predict a muted stampede, at least at first, by unhappy AT&T customers.  As many as two million customers itching to dump AT&T could jump to Verizon in 2011, but they’ll pay dearly to do so.  First, their existing AT&T iPhone won’t work on Verizon’s network, so that means a new phone and a new, two year contract with Verizon to get the best price.  Second, AT&T locked many of its customers into two year contract extensions with the release of the last iPhone in June.  No amount of whining by iPhone users, which has worked to score early upgrades and discounts in the past, will get AT&T to make the price of divorce less expensive.  The company’s price to sever ties: more than $200 for most in-contract customers with the latest version of the popular phone.

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CNBC discusses the pros and cons of Verizon’s adoption of Apple’s iPhone in these two reports.  (8 minutes)

Verizon iPhone users will also give up something else: an iPhone that can multitask.  AT&T’s GSM network allowed customers to browse web pages and run applications while you talked on the phone.  Verizon’s CDMA network doesn’t support that.  As long as you talk on your phone, your data applications won’t update.  It’s an either/or proposition, at least for now.

Still, expect the iPhone to be a Verizon hit like none other.  Carl Howe, an analyst for the Yankee Group, expects Verizon to sell 16.5 million iPhones in 2011, with more than half — 9 million — coming from Verizon’s own subscriber base.

The question is — can Verizon’s three bedroom house support the entire extended family showing up on their network doorstep?

AT&T’s network suffered from the onslaught of data-hungry iPhone devotees.  As millions of Americans adopted the phone, an AT&T exclusive, the company’s wireless network groaned under the usage.  With calls dropping, data trickling, and customer service irritating, AT&T scored rock-bottom in consumer ratings.

Some wonder if the same fate could afflict Verizon’s network.  Verizon currently has the lowest percentage of smartphone customers using its network among the four major carriers.  Verizon’s pricing is typically considered the culprit.  Customers insisting on the iPhone ended up with AT&T.  But those seeking Android phones had more choices — Sprint’s unlimited data plans at aggressive price points, T-Mobile’s value-oriented family shareplans, or Verizon’s robust network coverage at Cadillac pricing.

Putting the iPhone, already a premium-priced phone some consumers can’t live without, with Verizon’s reputation for high quality service, is expected to be a winning combination, and 16.5 million customers joining Verizon’s existing 30 million smartphone customers in a single year could have a dramatic impact.

“Unless Verizon has done a lot of network upgrades in advance, it may see many of the same capacity problems that have plagued AT&T,” Howe says.

The news AT&T is about to lose its exclusivity for the phone was taken in stride by some company executives, one who used the occasion to take a swipe at Verizon’s slower speed 3G network.

AT&T public relations head Larry Solomon pointed out Verizon’s 3G network relies on 3.1Mbps EVDO Rev. A technology while AT&T delivers 7.2Mbps on its HSPA 3G network.

The iPhone is built for speed, but that’s not what you get with a CDMA phone,” Solomon told Electronista. “I’m not sure iPhone users are ready for life in the slow lane.”

Verizon Wireless is expected to unveil the new phone Tuesday morning, with its in-store availability expected within a few weeks.  For fans of unlimited usage, there is one more piece of good news: Verizon is expected to continue offering unlimited data usage plans to its new iPhone customers.  AT&T cashiered its own unlimited data plan last spring, forcing customers to keep usage under 2GB per month if they don’t want an even higher bill.  Verizon is reportedly confident its network can sustain the traffic, and will leave its data hungry customers alone… for now.

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WTTG-TV in Washington delivers the news about the imminent arrival of the iPhone on Verizon’s network in a consumer-friendly fashion, while Bloomberg delves deeper into exactly what impact the move will have on existing and future customers of both AT&T and Verizon.  (9 minutes)

Verizon Wireless is making changes to their handset upgrade programs, all to the benefit of their bottom line and not to yours.

In training materials obtained by Android Central, Verizon is discontinuing its “New Every Two” handset discount program for customers who sign new contracts after Jan. 16 and will stop allowing customers to obtain early upgrade discounts on new phones before their contract nears expiration.

The “New Every Two” promotion has been a familiar part of Verizon Wireless service for years.  Customers finishing their two year contracts receive a $50 discount on their next new phone with the carrier, as long as they sign a new two year contract.

Early upgrades, which used to qualify customers for discounts during months 13-20 of their 24 month contract, are coming to an end as well.

There is some speculation the early upgrade plan is being curtailed to try and stop a rush on the rumored Verizon iPhone due early this year.

Since many customers upgrade to more expensive smartphones, the “New Every Two” program only delivers a discount, not the new free phone it provided in an earlier era.

Still, the loss of discounts will effectively give the biggest benefits to Verizon Wireless’ bottom line, allowing the company to reduce subsidies it pays on behalf of customers demanding the latest and greatest new phones.

Just in time for New Year’s Eve, AT&T is pushing revelers off its 3G network onto a newly expanded Wi-Fi hotzone that encompasses Times Square.

It’s all part of AT&T’s plans to improve connectivity for smartphone customers enduring the company’s overburdened 3G network.  A year ago, it could take 10 minutes or more for an AT&T smartphone user in a crowd to bring up a single web page.  That’s because too many other AT&T customers were trying to do the same thing at the same time.

In Times Square, where an estimated one million people are expected to ring in the new year, it’s a safe bet more than 200,000 AT&T customers will try and upload photos and send New Year greetings to friends and family back home.  They’ll have a better chance of success using AT&T’s Wi-Fi.

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An AT&T social media representative introduces the new hotzone in Times Square.  (1 minute)

AT&T has been installing hotzones, accessible by their customers, in large gathering spots in cities like New York, Chicago, and San Francisco to address complaints from customers about network congestion.

“Our initial AT&T Wi-Fi hotzones have received great customer response and supported high data traffic,” says John Donovan, AT&T’s chief technology officer. “The pilot demonstrated the clear benefits of having fast and readily-available Wi-Fi options for our customers and our network, and so we have decided to deploy hotzones in more locations.”

AT&T’s outdoor hotzones typically deliver a signal across several city blocks and are intended for those on the go.  They join more than 20,000 indoor Wi-Fi hotspots already accessible to AT&T customers.

A strong Wi-Fi signal means reduced battery consumption and faster speeds.  And unlike AT&T’s 3G network, using Wi-Fi won’t eat into your monthly usage allowance, a major issue for those facing AT&T’s Internet Overcharging scheme on the wireless side, which delivers only 2GB of service per month before overlimit fees kick in.

But Wi-Fi alone cannot work miracles, and AT&T has no idea whether the hotzone in Times Square will have enough capacity to meet customer needs.  But the company is satisfied that it will certainly help, which is why it plans to continue installing the outdoor networks in other high volume areas.

Verizon Wireless already operates its own Wi-Fi network in Times Square for many of the same reasons.

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AT&T explains how to use their Wi-Fi network.  (5 minutes)

Verizon Wireless is willing to be aggressive to keep your business — if you are a good customer that pays your bill on time.

The company has been trying to deal with a growing number of its long-time customers who have gone “off-contract” and are still using phones they bought two, three, and even four years ago.  The issue?  Pricey data plans.

“A Verizon Wireless phone bill for a family of four can easily exceed $200 a month when smartphones come into play,” writes Stop the Cap! reader Jim in Honeoye Falls, N.Y. “Forget about $1.99 mystery data charge-inspired bill shock.  Just getting your regular monthly bill can cause your hair to fall out.”

Jim says his recent visit to Verizon left him numb when he ran the numbers about adding his teen children to his existing Verizon account.

“My daughter is fed up with AT&T and she wants out at the end of her contract, and she’s willing to sacrifice her iPhone to manage it,” Jim says. “Her brother shares the account and he’s offered choice words about AT&T’s dropped calls to all in earshot.”

“But I was stunned by the Verizon in-store representative who started throwing numbers at me about texting, data fees, and insurance — not to mention plan changes,” Jim said.  “I don’t remember cell phone service ever being this expensive.”

Jim is grandfathered into a plan sold by Verizon around five years ago, one that eats mobile web usage from the plan’s monthly minute allowance.

Those days are long gone.  A Verizon representative told Stop the Cap! the company did away with that arrangement “for the benefit of customers.”

“Customers would sometimes forget and leave their phone running a data application overnight and consume most of their plan’s minutes for the month,” was the story told to us.  “Customers would be angry and upset when they realized their minutes were gone.”

We countered it’s far worse to get a bill reflecting data use charged at $1.99 per megabyte, per instance — Verizon’s current policy for customers not on data plans.  That has led to some unfortunate bill shock incidents where customers have ended up with bills in the tens of thousands of dollars.

Verizon “helped” its customers there as well — mandating expensive data plans for customers owning today’s higher-end phones.  Verizon argues a $30 a month flat rate data plan is better than being socked with a huge bill at Verizon’s extraordinary pay-per-use price.

“That’s like telling a mugging victim to be thankful they weren’t also raped,” Jim retorts.

What burns Jim about all of this is that unlimited data service plans do not include unlimited texting.

“It’s offensive that Verizon asks you to pay $30 a month to push mobile data around, but that doesn’t include a single text message,” Jim writes. “If you forget to add a text plans, it’s 20 cents a message.”

Verizon offers a budget package of 250 text messages for $5 per month.

Jim’s journey is a familiar one we’ve heard repeatedly from Verizon Wireless customers who are interested in exploring today’s advanced feature phones, but are turned off by the corresponding fees levied by the wireless carrier — fees that can dramatically increase customer bills.

“We pay around $100 a month for two lines with Verizon when all of the taxes are added up,” Jim says. “To bring my kids on board, we’d have to upgrade away from our current cell phone plan to one with at least two mandatory data plans, which would add $60 a month to our bill just for that.”

Verizon’s back-of-the-envelope calculations suggest Jim’s new Verizon bill would easily exceed $200 a month based on their usage and plan features.

“That’s crazy,” Jim feels.

Those prices cause customers like Jim to head for the door, telling Verizon to leave their account the way it was when they walked in the door.

Verizon seems to be getting that, because the company is increasingly targeting upgrade offers to contract-renewal-resistant customers, especially with family members eager to jump into smartphones.

The most welcome news — rumors the company may explore offering a FamilyShare Data Plan that carries a usage allowance, but is charged per account, not per phone.  For casual users and those more than happy to switch to Wi-Fi where available, that could represent serious savings.

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In the meantime, two promotions that are available offer some help for customers looking to upgrade:

FamilyShare – Smartphones Talk Free a/k/a $10 off data plan

Marketed in two ways, this promotion targets multi-line customers with one or more members seeking a smartphone upgrade, but do not want to have a stroke when they open the bill.

The promotion works with existing Verizon Nationwide Family SharePlans starting at $69.99 monthly access for 700 Anytime Minutes.  Add a $29.99 data plan for each additional smartphone and get $9.99 off your bill for each smartphone, per month, for the next two years. Sometimes this is pitched as “$10 off our unlimited $29.99 data plan” — because it is the price of the data plan that usually scares would-be smartphone customers back to their old phones.  Charging $20 instead of $30 is soothing enough to ease some customers on board the smartphone revolution.

“This is an ideal option for customers with a spouse or child wanting to move to a smartphone,” said Marni Walden, vice president and chief marketing officer for Verizon Wireless.

The caveats.  Your new smartphone will probably come with a two year contract extension and the primary line on the account is not qualified for the discount.  But there is an easy way around this.  If one or more lines on your account are not going to upgrade, simply have Verizon reassign one of those lines to be the primary line.  Legacy service plans no longer offered will have to be abandoned, and there is no way back to them.  This promotion expires January 7, 2011.

Talk (450 Minutes) With Unlimited Text and Data for $69.99 per month

Price conscious consumers have started giving carriers like Sprint a second look.  Rated the most improved carrier by Consumer Reports, Sprint’s aggressive pricing has begun to attract some Verizon customers.  In response, Verizon has been testing a new promotional plan that makes data and texting unlimited for one flat price.  The plan was initially open only to those who received an invitation in e-mail, but a quick call to Verizon Wireless customer service finds at least one call center that can add this plan for anyone — no invite required.

The plan’s price for single line accounts is $69.99 per month and a one year contract renewal is required for those with less than one year remaining on existing contracts (or those off-contract altogether.)  If you still have more than a year remaining on your contract, no further extension is required.

A companion FamilyShare plan delivers 1,400 minutes per month.  The monthly $139.99 price delivers service for two lines.  Each additional line is $19.99 per month, which includes unlimited texting and data.  For heavy users with several smartphones on an account, this plan can represent significant savings, and does not expire.

Caveats: Getting either plan might take a few calls to customer service.  Not every call center can add this promotion for customers.  Voice minutes might be too limited for some customers, but Verizon also offers the Friends & Family option, allowing unlimited calling to a select group of numbers.

Phone Promotions

This holiday season, selecting your new phone is probably going to be the cheapest part of your relationship with Verizon over the next two years.  The carrier is literally giving away several smartphones, offering buy one, get one deals on others.

Consumer advocates acquainted with the wireless market traditionally suggest the biggest savings come from online merchants like Wirefly, Dell Mobile, or Amazon.

At first glance, that advice seems sound.

Jim’s daughter and son both want the Droid X which sells for $199.99 on Verizon’s website. Verizon offers a Buy One, Get One special on the Droid X currently so the effective cost for two phones is $199.99.

But hang on a moment.  Dell Mobile (powered by Wirefly’s parent company) has the same phones for much less — $19.99 each, based on how the phones would be added to Jim’s account.  Until last evening, Dell even threw in a $25 gift card to sweeten the deal.  Excluding that, the difference in price between Verizon and Dell was a whopping $160 for the exact same phone.

Trying to narrow the difference used to be an exercise in futility for many Verizon customers.  With a market leadership position, Verizon doesn’t have to viciously compete on price.  As a result, hard fought negotiations often yielded little more than an accessory like a car charger thrown in to sweeten the deal.

But those days are starting to change, especially when Verizon considers you an excellent customer prepared to change carriers.

Lesson one for Jim was to avoid Verizon stores if he wanted the best possible deal.  As he discovered, Verizon store employees are recalcitrant about giving away the store as they try and protect their commissions and sales numbers.  Besides, many of the employees Jim dealt with seemed to know less about Verizon’s plans than he did.

Jim decided he could handle Verizon’s Smartphones Talk Free promotion, but he wasn’t about to leave $160 on Verizon’s table for the phones.  He visited a Verizon store in nearby Rochester to see what could be done about the price of the phones.

“Basically nothing was the answer,” Jim says.

“These guys will say anything to make a sale,” says Jim.  “But when you try and negotiate with them, they have little authority and less to offer.”

He reports a sales representative finally offered him free cell phone cases and a spare charger (a $100 value according to the Verizon rep — a value Jim disputes) instead of a price discount.

“I walked out,” said Jim.

While inquiring about how to place his order with Amazon, the online retailer instructed him to call Verizon directly to reconfigure something on his account before placing the order.

That was a fatal mistake… for Amazon.

“I was very surprised that the Verizon Wireless representative immediately started to fight for my business in ways the in-store reps never did,” Jim reports.

When Jim made it clear he was not about to give Verizon $160 more than he had to, the Verizon Wireless representative reviewed his account and placed Jim on hold.  Moments later, Jim learned Verizon would match Amazon’s offer.

“That was actually a relief for me because those third party online retailers have their own contracts you have to sign yourself committing to no account changes for six months, and you are never really sure whether they’ll configure the account properly,” Jim said.

Jim also scored free overnight FedEx shipping in time for Christmas and the representative promised to call him back after the phones arrived to finish setting up the account.

The only downside is that Verizon is still sticking Jim with mail-in rebates that will be fulfilled with debit cards.  His charges for the new phones will get added to his regular Verizon bill, however.  No credit card required.

Verizon’s willingness to extend offers can depend on your business relationship with the company.  Making late payments or arriving credit challenged can dramatically reduce how far Verizon will extend its hand.

Our advice to others in Jim’s position:

1. Call Verizon customer service and deal with them, not store employees when trying to negotiate the best deal.  A good phone rep will deliver discounts in-store salespeople know nothing about and won’t be willing to offer even if they did;
2. Make it about the price.  If you have a competing offer, share it with them.  Verizon can easily adjust prices downwards with their New Every Two $50 credit and do better with additional credits such as a free month of service to effectively knock your price down;
3. If they offer accessories, hold out for actual billing credits.  Buy your own accessories later;
4. Be prepared to hang up and call back if you get a difficult representative.  Some call centers are better than others;
5. Consider the competition.  Customers on individual plans might find far better deals with prepaid carriers like Page Plus that use Verizon’s network.  Or it may be time to consider a different carrier.
   

AT&T Mobility thinks it has a winning strategy when it took away unlimited data plans, forcing new customers to choose high-priced, usage-limited alternatives.  But a new survey from Wall Street research firm Sanford Bernstein found AT&T customers will grab, claw, and scream to keep the peace of mind that comes from having the choice of an unlimited use plan.

Sanford Bernstein’s study found a large number of customers willing to abandon any carrier that takes unlimited data away from them.  About a third of the more than 800 people responding said AT&T’s move toward usage-based billing left them with a bad impression of the wireless carrier.  That’s particularly bad for AT&T, which already scores as America’s lowest-rated wireless company according to Consumer Reports.

AT&T mitigated some of the potential damage by letting existing customers keep their unlimited data plans when they ceased selling the unlimited option this past June.  New customers are forced to choose between two limited-use plans — $15 for 200MB or $25 for 2GB of usage (a tethering option is also available.)  Existing customers will only face that hard choice if or when they change phones, presumably in the next year or two.

Had they not grandfathered in existing customers, Sanford Bernstein’s research suggests a large proportion of customers forced to give up unlimited data would quit AT&T even if it meant buying a new phone and paying a higher bill just to get the unlimited data option back.  When AT&T eventually forces these customers’ hands, Sanford Bernstein predicts trouble.

According to the study, more than 58 percent of the lowest data users said they would dump AT&T overboard and switch to another provider with an unlimited plan. For heavier users, more than two-thirds are prepared to take their business elsewhere.

But even with overwhelming evidence like that, AT&T and some Wall Street analysts think Internet Overcharging schemes do customers a favor.

“Customers generally have strongly negative perceptions about Usage-Based Pricing, and these are often not correlated with self-interest,” Bernstein analyst Craig Moffett said in a research note analyzing the findings of the survey conducted this past summer. “It is fashionable to argue that loyalty to carriers is dead (except perhaps to Verizon Wireless, whose service level is perceived to be markedly higher than that of its competitors). The new conventional wisdom is that carrier loyalty has been replaced with loyalty to the device. But high inclination to switch carriers and phones to maintain an unlimited plan suggest that perhaps the plan itself is more important than either one.”

The Wall Street firm’s research is hardly news to consumers, who have repeatedly expressed loathing contempt for Internet Overcharging schemes like so-called “usage-based billing,” “data caps,” and speed throttles that kick in when carriers decide customers have used the service enough.

Consumers are willing to pay a higher price just knowing they will never face dreaded “bill shock” — a wireless company bill filled with hefty overlimit fees charged for excessive data usage.  They also have no interest in being penalized by arbitrary usage limits that punish offenders with speed throttles that reduce wireless speeds to dial-up or lower.

AT&T was the first major carrier to throw down the gauntlet and force customers into choosing between a “budget plan” that is easy to exceed at just 200MB of usage per month or an inadequate, overpriced 2GB tier that costs just five dollars less than the now-abandoned unlimited use plan.

Wall Street firms like Sanford Bernstein worry their investor clients may be exposed to a revenue massacre when competing carriers like Verizon Wireless, which retains an unlimited plan for now, unveils its own version of the popular Apple iPhone.  The result could be a massive stampede of departing customers headed for top-rated Verizon Wireless, even if it means paying early termination fees.

AT&T spokesman Mark Siegel sees things very differently however, telling CNET News AT&T’s new limited option plans deliver more choice and flexibility for data-hungry users.