Cablevision Systems may be engaged in a long term effort to position itself for a sale, some New York investment firms have come to believe.  The most likely buyer?  Time Warner Cable.

The bulk of Cablevision’s assets are located in several boroughs of New York, Long Island, New Jersey and Connecticut.  Virtually all of their service areas, outside of the acquisition of Bresnan Cable in the mountain west, are adjacent to Time Warner, making an acquisition by the nation’s second largest cable operator a natural fit.

This isn’t the first time rumors of a Cablevision sale have been floated.  The Dolan family has run the cable operator for decades, with family patriarch Charles Dolan still controlling a sizable interest in the company.  Barron’s notes the senior Dolan is currently in his 80s.  Son James, current president and CEO of Cablevision, seems more interested in his leadership role at Madison Square Garden, spun-off from Cablevision last year.

“I think the Dolans have positioned the company for a sale,” Mark Boyar, who heads Boyar Asset Management, told Barron’s.

Boyar points to Cablevision’s ongoing efforts to minimize their involvement in side businesses, such as MSG and cable networks like AMC, spun away from Cablevision on June 30.

Buyers like transactions to be simple and straightforward, and Cablevision’s operations increasingly meet both standards.

On its own, Cablevision’s growth opportunities come mostly from rate increases, which subscribers routinely complain about.  The company already enjoys the highest penetration rate among major cable operators and the highest average monthly revenue per subscriber — $150 a month vs. $113 for Time Warner Cable.  With a depressed economy and fierce competition from Verizon FiOS, growing the business (and the stock price) has become increasingly difficult in a maturing industry unlikely to attract new subscribers.

Among the only prospects for subscriber growth on the horizon comes from satellite TV subscribers.  But that alone may not be enough to keep investors satisfied, much less excited.  A sale could bring shareholders a massive return on their investment, particularly if a bidding war breaks out between likely buyers Time Warner Cable and Comcast.  Shareholders ultimately own the company, and should the Dolan family lose their love affair with cable, Cablevision and their subscribers will likely find themselves on the auction block.

Qwest provides local service in 14 states in the Midwest and West.

Antitrust regulators have given the green light for CenturyLink to proceed with its buyout of Qwest Communications, but Qwest executives on their way out are hardly complaining about the deal.

Stop the Cap! has reviewed recent filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission and learned the proposed deal will bring almost $110 million in bonuses and golden parachutes for seven senior Qwest executives, some of whom will leave Qwest as a consequence of the merger.

Qwest CEO Ed Mueller will receive the largest amount: nearly $43 million — $10.8 million in cash he can spend now and $32 million in stock which he can sell later.  Mueller has already made a mint as CEO of Qwest, getting a five percent raise in his base salary to $12 million dollars in 2009, a nine percent boost in his performance bonus — $2.5 million, nearly $250,000 towards personal use of the Qwest corporate jet fleet, and $7.6 million in new stock awards.  While Mueller won, some 2,800 Qwest employees lost — their jobs.  As part of broad cost cutting moves, Qwest eliminated 8.5 percent of its workforce in 2009.  That helped the company achieve an increase in profits of 2 percent despite a 9 percent loss in revenue for the year.

Most of the generous compensation packages were part of the executives’ employment agreements which guaranteed golden parachute payouts and stock options in the event of a merger.  Those employee agreements were well-positioned to pay off for the executives, as Qwest’s “for-sale” sign had been public knowledge for years.

Last week, the Federal Trade Commission determined the deal between CenturyLink and Qwest did not bring any antitrust issues to the table.  But the deal still faces a review from state regulators and the Federal Communications Commission.  Qwest shareholders will have their say August 24th in a special shareholder meeting to vote on the deal.  Qwest has already been negotiating with significant shareholders who have sued the company, claiming the deal did not adequately compensate Qwest’s investors.  Sixteen of those lawsuits have since been quietly settled on undisclosed terms.

Meanwhile, opposition to the merger has come from smaller independent phone companies, consumer groups, labor unions, and some of Qwest’s competitors who rely on Qwest’s facilities to bring services to customers.  The Communications Workers of America is the largest union expressing concerns about the deal and has filed to intervene in public service commission proceedings regarding the merger in four states: Arizona, Colorado, Iowa and Minnesota.  Those are the only four states in Qwest’s 14 state territory receptive to hearing the union’s point of view, according to the CWA.  The others have oversight agencies that exist little beyond rubber-stamping the requests of the companies they oversee or have commission members who are openly hostile to unions.

Despite the opposition, most analysts believe the deal will win approval because CenturyLink only has a limited presence in most of Qwest’s service areas, which are in the mountain west and desert south.

Week one of the transition for millions of ex-Verizon landline customers didn’t exactly go off without a hitch.  A few problems with support issues for certain business customers in West Virginia, a major multi-state DSL outage from a fiber cable cut in Virginia, and long hold times of 30 minutes or longer have afflicted the all-new, super-sized Frontier.  Also not inspiring confidence: a plummeting Frontier stock price as Verizon shareholders, which now own 68 percent of Frontier Communications are hurrying to dump their stock and get out.  It has gotten so bad, TradersHuddle declared Frontier Communications the worst performing stock on the S&P 500.

Not much of this comes as a surprise, particularly the fleeing of Verizon shareholders who received 0.24 shares of Frontier, worth about $1.75 on July 1st (but now dropping fast), for every Verizon share they owned on June 7.  They’ve learned from prior experience that holding onto spun-off stock from similar deals with companies like FairPoint Communications and Hawaiian Telcom ended in financial disaster — bankruptcy.  As we predicted last Halloween in our true-to-life telecom horror story, once this deal was completed, Verizon shareholders would rush for the exits, selling their Frontier stock even as the share price plummets.

Shanthi Venkataraman, a reporter for The Street, noted the selloff in progress after the 4th of July holidays.  On Tuesday the stock was down 4.5% to $7.02. More than 30 million shares have changed hands, five times its average trading volume of 6.3 million.  Analysts believe the “turbulence” in Frontier stock is likely to continue for another week as new shareholders from Verizon complete their sell-off.

Zack’s Analyst Blog notes shareholders should be concerned with the future of Frontier’s business model — focusing on a decaying landline business.  Frontier’s revenue is particularly in peril in their biggest service area, Rochester, N.Y., which represents 25 percent of the company’s total access lines.  Customers in the Flower City continue to dump Frontier’s phone and broadband services, preferring Time Warner Cable’s less expensive “digital phone” and far faster Road Runner Internet service.  Time Warner Cable has consistently reported much of their growth in new customers has come from departing landline and DSL broadband customers disconnecting service.

While shareholders have the power to cut ties with Frontier, rural telephone customers in 14 states now confronted with a shotgun wedding to Frontier are not so lucky.  For millions of rural customers, there is no other choice for telephone and broadband service.

Stop the Cap! has reviewed dozens of local news accounts regarding the transition Verizon customers are now confronting as they are introduced to Frontier Communications.  Overall, most of the rural communities are taking a “wait and see” approach, hoping Frontier’s near-universal promises of better broadband and improved customer service will come true.  Verizon effectively slashed spending at least a year or two ago in many of these communities knowing in advance they were not going to be around for much longer.  In states like West Virginia, the results have been devastating for broadband penetration statistics.  While Verizon prepared for a sale, it kept nearly the entire state waiting for better broadband that would never come from the telecom giant.  Now with news Frontier plans to spend millions to improve broadband in the state, residents are hoping that will actually bring a broadband breakthrough in West Virginia.  Time will tell.

Many communities who have long felt ignored as “too small to matter” in Verizon’s larger plans also hope Frontier will manage better customer relationships with residents. After all, Frontier is promoting itself as the phone company with the small-town feel.  But after week one, some customers are feeling Frontier is giving them the big city runaround.  We’ll explore that, and the reactions from community leaders, consumers and businesses to the promises Frontier is making in our multi-part series exploring their transition to Frontier.