[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC FCC Chairman on Spectrum Crunch TV Everywhere 5-22-12.flv[/flv]

FCC Chariman Julius Genachowski spent the day hobnobbing with cable industry executives at the Boston Cable Show. In an interview with CNBC, Genachowski defended usage-based pricing, claiming it will bring lower prices to light users, spur “innovation” and enable consumer choice. Verizon Wireless customers on the cusp of being thrown off their grandfathered unlimited data plans may have a bone to pick with the FCC chairman about how innovative and enabling such policies have on them. Genachowski also suggests his controversial Net Neutrality policy is working, despite recent attempts by Comcast to exempt its content from the company’s usage cap and the wireless industry toying with toll-free data for preferred partners. Genachowski had little to offer consumers in the interview, instead suggesting his deregulatory stance on “innovation” will eventually benefit them.  (5 minutes)

What capacity crisis? This is about the money.

Yesterday’s news that Verizon Wireless plans to terminate the grandfathered unlimited data plans of their existing customers, forcing them to choose from a range of potentially more expensive shared data plans, would seem to be part and parcel of the cell phone industry’s need to move away from all-you-can-eat data to preserve what little spectrum they have to handle wireless data growth.

AT&T’s Randall Stephenson is on record stating AT&T has been hiking prices because of the imminent spectrum crisis and its inability to manage it with a buyout of T-Mobile:

“We’re running out of the airwaves that this traffic rides on,” Stephenson said. “There is a shortage of this spectrum. The more competitors you have, the less efficient the allocation of spectrum will be. It’s got to change. I don’t think the market’s going to accommodate the number of competitors there are in the landscape.” Stephenson noted AT&T’s data prices have increased 30% since the deal was killed.

“In a capacity-constrained environment we will manage usage-based data plans, increased pricing and managing the speeds of the highest volume users. These are all logical and necessary steps to manage utilization,” Stephenson said about AT&T’s rationing plans.

Over at Verizon Wireless, the announced end of unlimited data carried no such warnings of imminent wireless spectrum doom.  In fact, chief financial officer Fran Shammo on Wednesday said Verizon was just fine with spectrum and capacity for at least the next two years, if not longer (underlining ours):

“Well, I think prior to the deal that we announced with the cable companies and the acquisition of spectrum, we were saying that we were going to need a spectrum — we were going to need more spectrum by 2015. With the approval of this deal now, with the AWS, we think we are in very good shape here beyond 2015.

“In addition, the way our 3G spectrum is in individual slices, it is going to be very efficient for us to take slices out and re-appropriate that to the 4G technology. So I think that through that spectrum efficiency, also I think that there will be some help from the manufacturers in getting more equipment out there that utilizes spectrum more efficiently, although I don’t think that solves the problem, the industry is going to need more spectrum in the future because of the way that we see the guide path of consumption. But I think right now, we are in pretty good shape for at least the next several years.

[…] “So from a spectrum perspective, I think we are absolutely fine.”

Verizon's banking on more revenue when "unlimited data" is banished for good.

In fact, Verizon Wireless plans to reduce its spending on infrastructure projects designed to expand and enhance its wireless network, starting with its 3G service. Frammo (underlining ours):

“And now what you’re seeing is, if you will, a discontinued investment in 3G. Now we will have to continue to invest in that 3G from a maintenance and reliability perspective because we still have 90 million customers on that, but no more capacity or expansion of the 3G network. Our effort is going into 4G now and what I would say to you is look at Verizon on a total capital basis and I would say flat to slightly down. If you look at the components, what you will see is wireless decreased $850 million in the first quarter and that was because of the 3G buildout last year and not this year. But I think on a year-over-year basis, you could look to flat to down and that trend should continue.”

So what are Verizon’s primary goals in the near future? Increasing revenue. Frammo (underlining ours):

“So obviously, our goal is to increase cash flow. We came out of the first quarter with a $1.7 billion increase in our cash flow year-over-year, managing that CapEx. Our dividend policy is extremely important to us.“

Verizon Wireless handed out this statement this morning regarding the imminent demise of unlimited data:

“As we have stated publicly, Verizon Wireless has been re-evaluating its data pricing structure for some time, Customers have told us that they want to share data, similar to how they share minutes today. We are working on plans to provide customers with that option later this year.

“We will share specific details of the plans and any related policy changes well in advance of their introduction, so customers will have time to evaluate their choices and make the best decisions for their wireless service. It is our goal and commitment to continue to provide customers with the same high value service they have come to expect from Verizon Wireless.”

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WWLP Springfield Verizon Wireless Eliminating Unlimited Data 5-16-12.mp4[/flv]

WWLP in Springfield, Mass. explains to viewers the end of “unlimited data” from Verizon Wireless is near.  (1 minute)

Verizon Wireless will force customers off of their grandfathered unlimited data plans when they reach the end of their current two-year service contracts, according to the company’s chief financial officer.

It is all part of the cell phone company’s strategy to boost the average bills of customers with new, more expensive tiered family-shared data plans. With a significant number of current customers grandfathered on unlimited data plans that users likely will not forfeit voluntarily, Verizon will force the issue as customers come up for contract renewal.

The plan received considerable approval at today’s JPMorgan Chase TMT conference, a gathering for Wall Street investors and tech companies like Verizon.  Executive vice-president and chief financial officer Fran Shammo laid out the plan to switch customers to forthcoming family “data share” plans that are priced based on anticipated usage:

As you come through an upgrade cycle and you upgrade in the future, you will have to go onto the data share plan. And moving away from, if you will, the unlimited world and moving everybody into a tiered structure data share-type plan.

So when you think about our 3G base, a lot of our 3G base is unlimited. As they start to migrate into 4G, they will have to come off of unlimited and go into the data share plan. And that is beneficial for us for many reasons, obviously. So as you pick what tier you want to be and we think that there will be some price up in those tiers.

“Price up” is code language for bill hiking. Customers adopting family share plans may be able to share data across a larger number of devices, but at consumption pricing, many customers will find their Verizon bills substantially higher than before.

Shammo

“And the important part of that is we want the connections to come in and the way we have designed our plan, this plan is built on tiers and as we look at the future growth of LTE consumption because of the speeds and video consumption and consumption of other M2M-type devices, it is going to be more important that people will start to upgrade in their tiers as they start to really realize the benefits of the LTE network,” Shammo said. “As [customers] add more devices, they are going to have to buy up into tiers. So again, you will see the revenue increase there.”

Those revenue predictions were not sufficient to satiate Phil Cusick, an analyst at JPMorgan Chase. He questioned Shammo about the prospects for Verizon further increasing revenue with across-the-board rate increases on service plans.

Shammo would not commit to that, but was pleased with the lack of customer protests over their recent introduction of a $30 equipment upgrade fee. He called the new fee “the right thing to do.” More fees and surcharges are likely, according to Shammo.

“I think implementing these additional fees is probably where we are at,” he said. “With the construct that we have dealt with around data share and where we see consumption of LTE going, when you put the combination of them together, we are fairly confident that we will see people start to uptake in the tiers, which is really where we will get the revenue accretion in the future.”

Shammo also said Verizon’s fiber to the home network FiOS has gotten such rave reviews, it almost sells itself. That means the company will pull back on promotional offers and plans a general rate increase for all customers in the coming months, if only to bolster company profits.

“We have to do a better job in discipline of price increases and I think that you’ll see us do some price increases here over the next two quarters to offset the content increase and that will also contribute more profitability to the bottom line,” Shammo said. “You are going to have to concentrate more on reducing the amount of promotions, reducing the amount of retention that you put on the table to retain a customer and then also you are seeing that the industry is pricing up.”

Verizon FiOS customers will find rate increases applying both to equipment rental and service pricing nationwide, according to Shammo.

“We were actually below-market compared to our competitors on the amount of fee that we charge on the rental of a set-top box or a digital converter box,” Shammo explained. “We are switching around our bundles and the customers that are coming out of the current bundles will be priced up to the newer bundles. So you are going to see really a shift over the next two to three quarters in price-ups coming out of FiOS.”

As far as FiOS expansion goes, the company does not expect any major expansion in the service for the next several years.

“If we can penetrate the market and really turn the wireline profitability, could we potentially build out to other areas? Yes, but that is a decision that will be made in years out, not right now,” Shammo said. “So from a capital perspective, we are being very disciplined with where we are going to put that capital.”

Time Warner Cable's old branding for broadband

Time Warner Cable is nearing the end of a licensing deal that has allowed the company to use a familiar Warner Bros. animated character to promote their broadband service.

The company has spent at least a year transitioning customers away from the Road Runner brand name, now simply referring to their broadband product as “Internet” or, in some markets, “HSI” — High Speed Internet.

The “brand refresh” comes as Time Warner tries to associate all of its products and services around its traditional “eye-ear” logo, according to company spokeswoman Jeannette Castaneda.

Licensing the Road Runner character as the broadband service’s mascot has also been expensive, and the continued need to use the character to educate consumers about the speed benefits of cable broadband over DSL has diminished in importance.

The new look

The transition away from the Road Runner brand has been ongoing since last summer, but Broadband Reports notes numerous markets will see the brand and logo eliminated completely effective May 19th.  The company is also using the occasion to adjust pricing and tiers of its broadband service.  Hardest hit will be standalone broadband-only customers, who will now pay $53.95 a month for Time Warner’s standard 10/1Mbps Internet service. New customers will also pay a modem rental fee of $2.50 a month. Standalone Turbo (20/2Mbps) customers will pay $73.95 for their Internet service.

Time Warner Cable’s a-la-carte pricing for broadband is designed to make their bundled service offerings more attractive in comparison. The company will sell you Internet-only service for $73.95, or sell you a triple play package of phone, Internet, and television service for just $16.04 per month more on a 12-month promotion.

Broadband Reports‘ source lists pricing for one unspecified market:

• $53.95 for Time Warner’s 10/1Mbps Standard Internet
• $20.00 additional for 20/2 Turbo
• $30.00 additional for 30/5 Extreme
• $50.00 additional for 50/5 Ultimate
• $29.95 for 1/1 Lite (Usually a retention only offer)
• $42.95 for 3/1 Basic

Customers can avoid paying regular pricing by bundling multiple services together, getting a customer retention deal when threatening to cancel service, or bouncing between a six-month new customer promotion available from Earthlink over Time Warner Cable and the cable company’s own broadband promotional offer, good for 12 months. Both cost $29.99 a month in many markets.

Time Warner Cable's marketing machine pushes customers towards multi-service bundles. New customers pay even less.

[flv width=”480″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/Road Runner 2002 Ad.mp4[/flv]

A Time Warner Cable Road Runner advertisement from 2002.  (1 minute)

Your contract with Sprint ends in June, but why wait, beckons the cell phone company, when you can upgrade your phone today (with a new two-year service agreement).

Two years earlier, providers wheeled and dealed upgrade-reluctant customers, particularly those considering their first smartphone, thanks to the bill shock that results when customers see a $30 mandatory data plan added to their monthly bill.  Sprint went one step further, handing 4G-capable customers Clearwire WiMAX — a technology even Russian cell phone companies can’t wait to abandon — and added a $10 premium data surcharge for the privilege.

In Sprint’s favor: their willingness to deal discounts on phone upgrades and their truly unlimited data plans. But while Sprint continues to bank on unlimited data, the bill on cheap phone upgrades may now be coming due.

The American wireless industry is increasingly taking a page from the airlines, adopting irritating fees and surcharges while curtailing the perks and rewards that used to come with customer loyalty and family plans that routinely run into the hundreds of dollars.

Equipment Upgrade Fees

Sprint, Verizon, AT&T, and T-Mobile all have a nasty surprise in store for customers who have not upgraded their smartphones in the last year or so: the equipment upgrade fee.  Sprint and AT&T both charge $36 per phone, Verizon Wireless now charges $30, T-Mobile $18.

Verizon customers are especially peeved because that wireless company used to reward loyal customers with a $50 credit off any new phone at contract renewal time. Today, instead of getting “New Every Two” discounts, Big Red will charge you $30 for every new phone when you renew your contract.

Verizon’s excuse is that the new fee will be used to offer customer “wireless workshops” and “online educational tools,” according to Verizon spokeswoman Brenda Rayney. The company also claims the fees will cover more sophisticated consultations with “company experts” that are trained to provide advice and guidance on today’s sophisticated smartphones. In other words, these fees are supposed to compensate Verizon’s store and kiosk employees.

For people like my cousin, upgrading to a new Sprint phone at contract renewal time is an exercise in frustration. In addition to the $149-199 subsidized equipment price, Sprint now tacks on a $36 upgrade fee (per phone).  What miffs him is that Sprint is treating new customers better than existing ones, willing to waive one-time activation fees (coincidentally the same $36) for new customers, but steadfastly refusing to credit equipment upgrade fees for existing loyal customers.

Sprint will tell you they are not alone charging upgrade fees, and they would be right. All four major national carriers now charge the fees, effectively a penalty when customers decide to upgrade their phones.

Many also find it nearly impossible to get companies like Verizon Wireless to waive the fees, even when some of their best customers ask.

“Verizon Wireless was willing to throw away my 12 year account, earning them more than $500 a month in revenue, over the upgrade fee issue,” reports Stan Dershau. “Our contract expired this month and it was time for new phones, and Verizon absolutely insisted that we pay $150 in upgrade fees for new equipment on our account, even after the $600 they’ll collect from the smartphones we intended to buy.”

Dershau found absolutely nobody willing to relent on Verizon’s upgrade fees. Even supervisors told him the company has a no-waiver policy that is strictly enforced, and they could do little more than offer a token service credit even if Dershau threatened to take his business somewhere else.

“I haven’t decided what to do yet, but I canceled my upgrade plans for now,” he reports.

Dershau was always able to get Verizon to waive earlier fees because of the monthly business he brings them, but those days are over.

“It’s a whole different attitude with them now,” Dershau says. “They just want money.”

AT&T's fine print.

Ben Popken recently wrote about his efforts to avoid Verizon’s $30 upgrade fee, with mixed results.

Verizon’s suggested solution is to sell your old phones back to the company through their trade-in program, using the money to offset the equipment upgrade fee. But unless you own an iPhone, Verizon’s trade-in offers are strictly low-ball, often under $30 on non-Apple phones. That leaves you with a slightly lower upgrade fee and the loss of your old phone, which Verizon may recycle or resell refurbished to someone else.

Popken explains he found one convoluted way around Verizon’s fees:

First, start a new line of service with the new phone you want. Then, port your old phone number to a 3rd party service, like Google Voice (here’s a guide from Lifehacker on doing so). Lastly, cancel the line with the old phone and port the old phone number back onto the new phone, thus keeping the new phone, the old number, and dodging the fee. But there’s a catch. It only works if you wait three months to port the number back. If you do it before then, Verizon’s system treats it like you’re continuing the same service, and they hit you with the $30 upgrade fee. Curses.

Popken forgets, however, that Google itself charges a $20 fee to port cell phone numbers to Google Voice, eliminating 2/3rds of your potential savings.

In fact, outside of purchasing a phone at the full, unsubsidized price from a third party, Verizon’s $30 fee will be visiting your phone bill sooner or later, if you decide to upgrade.

The Phone Subsidy: Slaying North America’s Sacred Cow Wireless Business Model

Consumers who crave the newest smartphones should thank their lucky stars they live in Canada or the United States, where the wireless industry heavily discounts the upfront cost of the phone when customers sign a service contract. But phone companies like AT&T and Verizon are not giving you a gift. In return for fronting a discount of as much as $400, companies set their monthly rates higher to recoup that subsidy over the life of your two-year contract.

That worked fine when cell phone companies only paid a few hundred dollars for basic phones. But today’s most popular smartphones can cost companies $400 each, and that upfront revenue hit has annoyed Wall Street for years. Even worse, while providers hand you a discounted phone, they’ve already paid the asking price to companies like Apple and Samsung, who book that revenue immediately and never have to worry about a customer skipping out on their contract.

Wall Street has been putting pressure on companies to do something about the expensive phone subsidies, and companies are responding. The equipment upgrade fee, increased activation fees, and rising monthly service charges are all a part of a greater plan to discourage customers from upgrading their phones and increase profits.

Wall Street analysts love every part of it, especially if companies can do away with equipment subsidies -and- maintain today’s pricing:

“Optimism has increased that we are witnessing the leading edge of a more disciplined, and more profitable, future,” Craig Moffett, a telecom analyst at Bernstein Research, wrote in a recent research note. The question now, he wrote, is how much carriers can increase their profits thanks to “increased discipline and pricing power.”

The answer could be quite a lot. A marketplace experiment in Spain is being closely watched by wireless phone companies worldwide and could be coming to Canada and the United States before your next two-year contract is up for renewal.

In March, Telefónica SA, Spain’s largest cell phone company, stopped subsidizing smartphones for new customers. Vodafone, which co-owns Verizon Wireless, quickly followed.

As a result, Spanish customers looking for an iPhone will now pay $800 to purchase the phone at full price, or they can sign up for an “installment plan” that will add $45 a month to their cell phone bill for the next 18 months. Both companies say the new policy won’t apply to existing customers, in an effort to discourage them from switching companies.

Telefónica anticipates the changes will slash as least 25% off of their spending. Instead of fronting subsidies to attract new customers, the phone company will increase subsidies for existing customers who agree to stay. Unfortunately for Telefónica, early results are not promising. More than 500,000 customers left the same month the new policy was announced.

A handful of smaller Spanish players see the move by both major companies as a competitive opportunity to win over new customers. Orange, for example, has not stopped offering subsidies and as a result Telefónica has lost potential new customers who signed with Orange instead. The “churn rate” of customers coming and going remains a concern for company executives. But so far, Telefónica considers getting rid of phone subsidies more important than the customers they have forfeit over the new policy.

“We are pretty firm on our strategy of trying to change the paradigm of the sector, […] devoting the bulk of our efforts to our existing customers and, therefore, trying to move away from incentivizing churn of our customers either from us or from the others,” said company CEO Cesareo Alierta Izuel. “We are very firm on this new handset strategy. We need to fight to see if the trend is going to the right direction. And again, we think it is.”

The Wall Street Journal reports Telefónica’s bold plan has caught the attention of Verizon CEO Lowell McAdam, who sees it as a potential profit booster, and McAdam expects Verizon may cautiously follow the Spanish company’s lead.

“We’ll probably offer some things like that, and then we’ll see what the adoption is like,” McAdam said. “You can’t push this on customers before customers are ready for it.”

For now, some customers are not even ready for equipment upgrade fees. My cousin’s upgrade plans remain on hold for now, as are those of the Dershau family.

“I am not going to be browbeaten into paying these unjustified fees,” Dershau said. “Where does it stop?”

[flv width=”512″ height=”308″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSJ Dodging Verizon’s New 30 Upgrade Fee 5-9-12.flv[/flv]

Ben Popken talks about trying to avoid Verizon’s $30 equipment upgrade fee.  (3 minutes)