With a declining number of Americans willing to pay AT&T’s prices for smartphones and wireless service plans, AT&T’s future revenue growth will increasingly depend on getting the company’s current customers to pay more for data and adopt new types of wireless communications services.

After a quarterly earnings report found AT&T subscriber growth falling far behind its larger rival Verizon Wireless, AT&T appears ready to concede there is a finite number of new customers to be won from endless battles for market share.

AT&T was expected to add 358,000 new customers in the previous quarter, but only managed to attract 151,000. Demand for the latest Apple iPhone has yet to meet available supply, with most iPhones obtained by AT&T allocated to existing customers. AT&T exclusively launched the iPhone in the United States in 2007 and retains the largest share of iPhone owners, even after the phone became available from other carriers. Verizon Wireless had fewer problems adding new customers because it is not nearly as dependent on Apple.

de la Vega

Despite lackluster subscriber growth, AT&T reported stellar revenue during the quarter, partly from rate increases and the launch of usage-limited, family share plans. AT&T also continued to benefit from  tax savings, share buybacks, and refinancing debt at lower interest rates. With fewer customers adding subsidized phones, AT&T also paid fewer subsidies.

AT&T’s profit rose to $3.64 billion, or 63 cents per share, up from $3.62 billion, or 61 cents per share — $.03 ahead of Wall Street expectations.

AT&T can thank its wireless data services for a significant chunk of their earnings, with more to come.

The company reported more than 2/3rd’s of their customers (28+ million) are now on usage-based pricing plans. That is 10 million more than a year ago. The company’s new mobile share plans have attracted almost two million subscribers during the first five weeks they were on offer. More than one-third of those customers are choosing the company’s 10GB data allowance, which costs the customer $150 a month with unlimited talk and texting ($30 a month for each additional smartphone on the account.) Around 15% of new mobile share customers are choosing to abandon their grandfathered unlimited data plans.

AT&T’s forthcoming strategic redirection, to be announced Nov. 7, is likely to center around increasing revenue from the company’s wireless data network.

The average AT&T customer’s wireless broadband data bill is on the increase.

Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets, told investors it is taking “this massive data growth and building products and services on top of that.”

“One of the best examples I can give you is our launch of Digitize that will happen next year,” de la Vega said. “It leverages this huge smartphone database and adds services on top of it and not just data access, but services that differentiate us from the competition. So you’re talking about connecting the home with service automation and security monitoring. We’re talking about connecting your car with all kinds of entertainment services.”

That means AT&T sees its future revenue coming mostly from existing customers paying more.

“Those services are not dependent on adding more customers per se, but connecting more houses, connecting more cars and connecting more things that drive significant revenue streams with good margins for us,” de la Vega said. “In terms of what we see happening with others in the industry, I don’t think anything we have seen changes our plan. We’re going to execute [and] let others react to our plan, instead of us reacting to them.”

AT&T seemed unconcerned by competition in the current marketplace, especially from those offering cheaper plans. de la Vega predicted other carriers will come around to AT&T and Verizon’s way of thinking about mobile plan pricing.

“I think these mobile share plans are very compelling to customers,” de la Vega told investors. “And I think those that don’t put them in, in the industry will probably have to rethink down the road because I think the reception has been exceptional.”

John Stephens, AT&T’s chief financial officer, called AT&T’s data growth important, as long as those customers are on tiered data plans. With three-quarters of their customers buying “higher-priced plans,” AT&T can grow revenue by encouraging data usage that forces customers into ever-higher allowance plans that deliver revenue boosts indefinitely.

“I think some of the things driving our pricing and the price moves we made almost a year ago where we increased our data pricing are driving our revenue growth,” de la Vega admitted. “But we’re also seeing people sign up for more data. And the fact is, as you sell more smartphones or more tablets, people need more data. Usage-based data pricing means as usage goes up, we can see some of that lift also coming from additional average revenue per customer. So not only do we feel good where we are, but I feel really good about where we’re going, because you have to have that base of usage base in order to be able to monetize the data growth that we foresee in the future.”

AT&T continues to depend primarily on its wireless division for most of its revenue, but as growth slows, the demand for ever-increasing average revenue from each customer will have to come from increasing prices or finding new services to sell that customers want.

Applications that wireless carriers seek to monetize

Some other highlights:

• AT&T was questioned by Wall Street about its decision to voluntarily contribute a $9.5 billion preferred equity interest in AT&T Mobility into the Pension Plan Trust. Some analysts consider that amount unnecessary and above the amount required by law, despite the company’s assertion this would help protect the long-term health of AT&T’s pension fund. But some retirees note AT&T’s generosity benefits itself — the company’s contribution to the pension plan is invested entirely in AT&T’s wireless business;
• AT&T now has 7.4 million U-verse subscribers, driving wireline revenue growth to levels not seen in more than four years. But AT&T still only averages less than a 15% market share in the cities where U-verse is available, suggesting cable operators are maintaining their market dominance;
• AT&T’s new upgrade policy, which curtails early upgrades and imposes new upgrade fees, is having a dramatic impact on discouraging customers from upgrading their phones. That has kept AT&T’s upgrade rate at a steady 7%, even with the introduction of the wildly popular new iPhone. AT&T has effectively cut their subsidy costs and took a 28% increase in equipment revenue from new upgrade fees to the bank;
• Capital expenditures are on target at $13.8 billion, with more than half of that invested in the wireless business. Landlines and U-verse upgrades took a back seat.
• AT&T receives enough iPhones to activate 5,000-10,000 new iPhone customers a day and still that is insufficient to meet demand;

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/ATT Quarterly Earnings 10-24-12.flv[/flv]

AT&T’s Ralph de la Vega explores the company’s latest quarterly earnings, focused on its profitable wireless business.  (3 minutes)

AT&T: Landlines may be a thing of the past in rural areas served by AT&T.

AT&T customers in the company’s rural service areas are likely to see wireless broadband as AT&T’s answer to rural America’s demand for Internet access.

Speaking on AT&T’s quarterly results conference call, Ralph de la Vega, president and CEO of AT&T Mobility and Consumer Markets yesterday previewed the forthcoming investor and analyst conference scheduled for Nov. 7 to discuss AT&T’s future in the rural landline business.

“I think there is a place in some rural areas where I see the outline, that [wireless] could serve as an alternative to wired broadband,” de la Vega told a Wall Street analyst from Goldman Sachs. “We are going to be talking to you about that on November 7, giving you more details about our thinking of how we can use this technology. And, quite frankly, the customer reception to the technology [is good] in terms of their willingness to pay for great quality data in large, large amounts.”

Some analysts anticipate AT&T is also likely to announce some additional expansion of the company’s U-verse platform to an additional 3-5 million customers that were not previously scheduled to see the service in their area. The build-out would take 12-18 months to complete. But that still leaves up to 15 million rural AT&T customers with either no broadband or the company’s slower DSL service. For many of them, AT&T sees wireless Internet in their future.

At the core of AT&T’s wireless broadband solution is the company’s LTE 4G network. AT&T is stressing it intends to roll out LTE upgrades in both rural and urban areas, unlike its nearest rival Verizon Wireless, which has prioritized upgrades on urban areas. AT&T claims its current network performs at speeds of 5-12Mbps — faster in low demand areas. In areas where AT&T has not bothered to provide DSL service, the company has repeatedly stressed it believes wireless delivers the best bang for the buck.

Unfortunately for rural consumers, access is not likely to come cheap, congestion will reduce overall speeds, and plans will include usage caps that are draconian in comparison to the company’s wired broadband services.

AT&T is a strong believer is monetizing data usage by gradually eliminating the unlimited data plan the company started at the dawn of the smartphone era. The future at AT&T is usage-based pricing.

“I think that more customers we have on usage-based plans the better we are,” de la Vega told investors.

In the last quarter alone, AT&T earned $6.6 billion from its wireless data service — up more than $1 billion (18%) compared to the same quarter last year.  AT&T now takes $26 billion annually to the bank just from its wireless data earnings.

Looking for new revenue opportunities

More than half (52 percent) of all U.S. consumers say Internet service is their home’s most important utility, according to a survey conducted by Verizon Communications as part of their Verizon FiOS Innovation Index project.

But Verizon’s research surveys go well beyond simply identifying who loves Internet access. Verizon’s real interest is identifying so-called “borderless consumers,” — customers who are seeking a seamless online experience and connectivity both inside and out of the home.

The convergence of wired and wireless broadband networks is a potentially enormous money-maker for Verizon, especially if you happen to be a Verizon Wireless customer.

“As the borderless consumer segment continues to grow, so will the need to identify, understand and anticipate what consumers truly want in their increasingly connected lives – today and in the future,” said Eric Bruno, vice president of FiOS strategy and development for Verizon.

Fran Shammo, Verizon’s chief financial officer, has previously told investors that monetizing data usage goes beyond text messaging and web browsing. The next frontier for enhanced revenue will come from the machine-to-machine segment. As consumers strive for a more connected future, enabling wireless connectivity for home appliances, automobiles, medical equipment, and other devices will create new revenue streams for the company.

Verizon’s new research surveys help the company target its future marketing to consumers most likely to be living the “borderless lifestyle.” Are you? Here are some key attributes:

• Above average income: Most are college educated, own their home, and nearly half earn $75,000 or more annually, so they can afford higher broadband bills;
• They are 18-34: Generation X and Millenials grew up in an increasingly connected world. Baby boomers are not far behind, but seniors are;
• Women somewhat outnumber men in their need to remain connected;
• You already have a computer, smartphone, or tablet and are connected to high speed Internet. Most of you want faster speed, if you can get it.

Verizon’s study becomes murkier over the issue of cord cutting. Verizon found that video streaming continues to drive Internet traffic growth, but at least 89% still prefer watching shows on their televisions. Verizon defines that as live TV, DVR, or on-demand from “TV/Cable service.”

But they did not ask whether consumers are watching more or less television provided by their cable, satellite, or phone company or if a larger proportion of viewing now comes from Netflix or other streamed content. That is a key indicator of whether a customer is gradually shifting viewing habits, which could ultimately make it easier to dump cable television.

With 90 percent of those surveyed looking forward to the day when every connectable device in their house can seamlessly interconnect and work together, Verizon’s potential revenue opportunities are enormous, if customers use Verizon Wireless for connectivity and not free Wi-Fi. Machine-to-machine wireless traffic can boost profits without costing the company much, especially under Verizon Wireless’ new Share Everything pricing. The impact of short data exchanges likely from home appliances and other similar devices is expected to be negligible. The profits from charging at least $10 a month to add each of those devices to a Verizon Wireless account are not.

A very frustrated employee of Frontier Communications working in one of their Ohio offices sent Stop the Cap! a detailed report on some of Frontier’s problems with customer service, unfair fees, and other horror stories. In this second part, a look at Frontier’s fees, service commitments, and the caliber of customer service. (Stop the Cap’s comments appear in italics.)

Installation fees can be a significant component of a customer’s first bill — a rude surprise for anyone choosing a promotional offer and experiencing bill shock when that first bill arrives. That triggers complaint calls to customer service, where a Frontier representative will ultimately decide whether you will get the free installation you were promised.

How much will your first bill be? The broken promises of “free installation.”

If you order today, your installation will be free… or not.

Let me share a little secret. I believe most representatives will always quote free installation to get the sale. Most believe the payoff for the company in the long run is better than the temporary hit we take on installation expenses. It also makes our commission checks a little fatter the following month. Unfortunately, in the rush to make the sale, I believe the majority of reps fail to note what they promised on the customer’s new account, which means they get charged some expensive install fees. Many quickly call in,  accusing us of reneging on our offer.

We handle these as if we were playing some version of Russian Roulette, straight out of Deer Hunter. One out of every six customers will not get their installation fees waived simply because we refuse. Sometimes it becomes a game of using your gut and flipping a coin. Other times it is the amount of the refund.

It is much easier on us if the fees we reverse are under $100, because we have the authority to issue an immediate credit. If the fees are over $100, things get complicated because the request must be approved by a regional office manager who relies entirely on the notes left by the customer service representative. If the request is denied, it is our job to call you back with the bad news. But the good news is the odds are still in your favor if you persist asking for the fees to be reversed.

I hate to say it, but it all comes down to the mood of the rep you get on the line and how much he or she is willing to fill out those forms for you. It sucks, but there is no full-proof system to prevent this and it frustrates me to no end.

Stayed home all day waiting for a Frontier technician who never showed up? They marked your problem solved anyway. 

Waiting for the service technician that claims he rang your doorbell and nobody answered.

This is truly the one that bugs me the most. I deal with at least 15 calls a day (this number has increased since July) where either the technician does not call a customer to notify them they can’t make it, or simply does not show at all and writes off the service order as “completed.”

The latter irritates customers and our call center to no end. Customers are infuriated when we tell them the technician knocked on your door, nobody answered, so they left you a note. Of course, the customer insists nobody ever actually showed up and they don’t have any note. We tend to believe the customers when they tell us they do not have working service, if only because they are calling us on their cell phones.

Customer service representatives can be audited and disciplined by Frontier for not clearly including a phone number where the customer can be reached, all for the benefit of Frontier technicians. Despite this, we find our techs rarely contact the customer to keep them informed about the progress of their service call.

Our worst problems are currently in Michigan and Indiana where the majority of our missed commitments stem from. No call, no show — a technician can do this to a customer and still have his job the next day. I would get a pink-slip marked “customer mistreat” and shown the door if I pulled this trick. But many technicians just don’t care and do not have to take the angry calls from customers wondering where the hell the technician is. We see it in tech notes left on the account that say things like ‘didn’t make it to the job on time – leaving to go home.’  They never bothered to ask the customer to reschedule or call them to let them know they won’t be coming.

I understand that their job is just as stressful as ours, but they need to pull their weight as well and stop marking incomplete orders as “finished” or avoiding the customer on a missed commitment. It infuriates customers and makes the company look bad.

The Race to the Bottom: Lower wages = inferior customer service

Over the past few years, Frontier has been consolidating its call centers — moving to locations where average wages and benefits are notoriously low and politicians push a “pro-business” agenda that hands out favors in the form of tax credits and incentives to companies willing to relocate.  For Frontier, this spells doom for employees that were paid enough to earn a living in places like Coeur d’Alene, Idaho ($15-21/hr) in favor of cheap labor staffing new call centers in states like South Carolina ($11-12/hr with a five year wage freeze). That is bitter news for former Frontier employees in Idaho who saved the company an estimated $84 million successfully converting an inherited Verizon computer system to the one Frontier uses in other states. Employees were thanked with termination notices and a cheap, plastic travel mug with the company’s logo. Paying a good wage or cutting paychecks to the least amount possible may make all the difference between a good customer service experience or an embarrassment for the company.

I am going to name a call center that every other Frontier call center loathes: DeLand, Florida.

This is one of our main sources of broken promises, bad orders and misinformation. In DeLand, you are considered a lifer if you’ve worked there for more than two years. They pay near-minimum wage to fresh-out-of-high-school students to sit on the phones, most of them quitting before their six month probationary period ends. Working for Frontier customer service is a summer job to the kids down there. They could care less if they write an order for someone in an area we don’t even service, provide customers inaccurate pricing, or just cold-transfer the customer back into the call queue if they are too ignorant to help the customer out.

Thankfully, not everyone in DeLand is doing a bad job. Some of our DeLand supervisors and representatives are earnest about delivering good customer service. But too often that is the exception, not the rule. DeLand is notorious for “cherrypicking” customers. That is a term Frontier call center workers know all too well. It means picking incoming calls that are most likely to generate commission-rich sales for the employee while throwing other callers back on hold for someone else to deal with.

The drive to make the sale is so intense, representatives sometimes start writing the order before they even verify the customer is actually in a Frontier service area. We use a simple verification system called CERT to check whether a potential customer is served by us or another phone company. But the orders for customers actually served by AT&T, Windstream, Verizon or CenturyLink still show up, and the customer has to be told later. We have heard about 60 percent of the orders placed in DeLand do not actually go through, either because of this problem or customers calling back changing their mind after they discover they were mislead about something.

Management does not seem to mind the aggressive sales tactics, because it brings the opportunity for new revenue, but customers left waiting or given bad information might.

Tomorrow: Frontier’s broadband service speeds, fees and some new facts about Frontier FiOS you shouldn’t miss.