A British financial analyst has issued a new report telling phone companies they should forget about fiber optic upgrades — copper-based DSL service is adequate for consumers and doesn’t bring shareholders fits over capital expenditures.

Analysys Mason’s Rupert Wood believes companies are at risk of overspending on fiber networks that deliver speeds he claims few consumers want.

“The vague promise of future services may appeal to some early FTTH adopters, but will become increasingly ineffective as a selling point unless the rate of innovation in devices and services that are uniquely suitable for FTTH gets some new impetus from vendors and service providers,” writes Wood. “The future cannot be simply plotted against increasing fixed-line bandwidth.”

Wood believes wireless 3G and 4G broadband is where innovation and demand is greatest.  It also just happens to be where the biggest money can be made.  Providers can charge premium prices for wireless services while limiting access.

Wood

For at-home Internet, Wood believes copper-based DSL is fine for most consumers.  Wood points to American providers offering super-high-speed broadband tiers that attracts few buyers as proof there is little interest in ultra-fast connections.  DSL is cheap to provide, he argues.  Fiber is just ‘too risky’ and Wood suggests it’s not as “future-proof” as wireless.

So what should providers do with their fiber networks?  Short of abandoning them altogether, Wood recommends operators pull back on fiber roll-outs and deploy them only for experimental purposes.

“Conditions vary between markets, but in general the business case to move much beyond trials just isn’t there and we are already beginning to see some scale-back,” explains Wood.

“Bandwidth demand for fixed broadband is converging with the bandwidth required to stream TV, and its rate of growth will slow down,” he adds. “DSL [technology] might not be able to meet these demands at some point in the future, but we believe that this point is still a long way off.”

If you want to read more, it will cost you €5500 to purchase a copy of “FTTx roll-out and capex in developed economies: forecasts 2010–2015.”

Our analysis comes for free.

Wood ignores the most important reason why Americans are not signing up for ultra-fast premium speed tiers in droves — the current “early adopter” price tag.  Few consumers are going to justify spending $99 a month or more for the highest speed connections.  When price cuts deliver faster service at incrementally higher pricing, perhaps $10-20 for each step up, there will be greater demand.  If America was not interested in higher speed networks, Google’s proposal to build a 1Gbps fiber to the home system would have passed by without notice.  Instead, more than 1,100 communities applied to be chosen for the project, including just about every American city.

Wood’s report primarily speaks to a European market, where the majority of broadband connections come through telephone company DSL or wireless.  In the United States, the cable industry heavily competes with phone companies for broadband customers.  That is much rarer in Europe.  Wood’s claim that consumers care little about speed is belied by marketing campaigns that put cable broadband’s speed advantage front and center, and they have the market share to justify it.

In North America, although Wood’s report may be music to phone companies’ ears, refusing to upgrade copper phone networks comes at their peril.  Americans and Canadians are disconnecting their landlines at an increasing rate, abandoning those that abandoned innovation long ago. Cable operators report many of their new broadband customers come from those disconnecting slower speed DSL service from copper-loving phone companies.

The future is clear — sticking with standard DSL over copper phone lines in competitive markets is a losing proposition unless phone companies begin slashing prices to become a value leader for those who want more savings than speed.

Verizon determined the best way to “future proof” its network was to deploy fiber straight to the home in many areas.  Verizon’s vision carries a price tag analysts like Wood and those on Wall Street don’t like because it challenges short term profits.  But with Americans increasingly saying goodbye to their landline providers, not upgrading networks to give customers a reason to stay is penny wise and pound foolish.

Bray Cary -- Frontier's biggest fan in West Virginia

Bray Cary has been falling all over himself again — singing praises for Frontier Communications while many of its customers in West Virginia contend with service problems and outages, sometimes for weeks at a time.

Cary, president and chief executive officer of West Virginia Media, owner of television stations across the state, was a big supporter of the deal to sell Verizon’s landlines in West Virginia to Frontier Communications. This past spring, Cary’s weekly Decision Makers program treated viewers to a softball question and answer session with Frontier’s Ken Arndt, who was forced to “endure” Cary’s contention that opposition to the deal was limited mostly to labor union sour grapes.

With a hard interview like that, Arndt was delighted to be asked back for another edition of Tea-’N-Cookies Breakfast Club With Bray, this time to answer tough questions about how the transition could have possibly gone any better for the independent phone company.

Good morning and welcome to Decision Makers on a weekend when America is discovering the beauty of the great state of West Virginia.  Through the magic of worldwide television […] we here in West Virginia are on the verge of discovering the power of the Internet across all of our hills and all of our valleys.

With that over-the-top introduction, Cary was off, spending nearly 20 minutes glad-handing Arndt through an interview that could have been produced in-house by Frontier’s marketing department.

[flv width=”500″ height=”395″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WTRF Wheeling Decision Makers Cary Arndt Frontier 7-31-10.flv[/flv]

Nearly 20 minutes of mutual admiration between Frontier’s Ken Arndt and WV Media’s Bray Cary can be experienced for yourself.  These segments appeared July 31st on the Decision Makers program.  (19 minutes)

Ohio County, WV

More tea?

Meanwhile, in other parts of the state things are not nearly as rosy as Cary and Arndt contend.

Stop the Cap! reader Ralph points us to Ohio Country, located in the Northern Panhandle of West Virginia, where Frontier has subjected some customers to service outages extending into three weeks.  Entire neighborhoods have lost phone and broadband service.  Dela Misenhelder, who lives in Valley Grove says a storm August 4th knocked out service for her and her neighbors.  Misenhelder used her cell phone to call Frontier three different times to no avail.

“My concern is the elderly,” Misenhelder told a local TV station.  “Do they have cell phones — being out in the country, do they even have a signal — and be able to get 911 in case of an emergency or problem.”

Frontier’s regional general manager, William (Bill) Moon said that Frontier was supposed to have contacted all of the neighbors impacted by the outage to make sure service was restored.  In Misenhelder’s case, since her phone line was still not working, she never got that call.

Moon is a name readers will become increasingly aware of, as he features prominently in damage control efforts by Frontier in northern West Virginia when they get negative media coverage.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WTOV Steubenville Frontier Continues Dealing With Phone Service Issues 8-25-10.flv[/flv]

Dela Misenhelder in Ohio County, W.V., was without her Frontier phone line for three weeks.  She made three calls to Frontier, who ignored her, so Dela called the newsroom of local TV station WTOV-TV in Steubenville, Ohio looking for help.  They achieved results for her, as you’ll see in this report.  (2 minutes)

Hancock County, WV

Matters are even more serious in the northern tip of the state — in Hancock County — where emergency responders are coping with defective T1 data lines that Frontier has failed to maintain properly, causing interruptions in emergency radio traffic.

The problems started when Verizon was in charge, but have gotten considerably worse since Frontier arrived.  Now the backup systems are beginning to fail as well.

When that happens, emergency communications with fire, police, and ambulance can’t happen, forcing first responders to rely on cell phones to communicate with one another.

Frontier called the problems with the T1 lines “odd” and at last check was examining more than 10,000 feet of phone cable looking for problems.

A local TV station witnessed the failure of a Frontier T1 line provided for emergency radio traffic themselves while filming a story on repeated Frontier outages.

On Saturday, another Frontier outage disrupted 911 service across Jefferson, Belmont and Harrison Counties, forcing local media to deliver streams of local direct numbers for emergency officials across all three counties.

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WTOV Steubenville Hancock County Experiencing More Phone Problems 7-8-10.flv[/flv]

Not less than three reports about failures in emergency communications attributed to a defective T1 line maintained by Frontier Communications have run on WTOV-TV in the last two months.  (6 minutes)

Residents in Marshall and Wetzell counties, which complete the Northern Panhandle are no strangers to Frontier service problems.  They were Frontier customers before Verizon sold its landline network to the company.

Stop the Cap! reader Mitch in New Martinsville writes to tell us West Virginia is just becoming acquainted with service on ‘the Frontier.’

“The company delivered lousy service to us long before they’ll deliver lousy service to the rest of the state,” he writes. “We cannot get DSL from Frontier because they won’t spend the money to re-engineer the ancient wiring on our street.”

For Mitch, the outage experienced by his ailing grandmother this past February, which stopped calls connecting from outside of the 686 exchange, was the last straw.

“She couldn’t reach me and I couldn’t reach her,” Mitch adds. “If a phone company cannot even handle basic phone call connections, what good are they?”

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WTOV Steubenville Phone Service Knocked Out In Parts Of Marshall Wetzel Counties 2-10-10.flv[/flv]

A winter storm knocked out Frontier service across parts of the Northern Panhandle this past February.  Customers discovered they could only dial and receive calls from other local residents.  WTOV-TV covered the story.  (2 minutes)

When Mitch tried to cancel Frontier service, he says they tried to stick him with an early termination fee of more than $100.

“I never signed a contract with them,” he writes.

NY State Attorney General Andrew Cuomo

Mitch escalated his complaint to the West Virginia Public Service Commission, which finally got Frontier to relent.

Mitch’s experience with phantom early termination fees charged by Frontier are hardly new.  Last fall, Frontier was slapped with a $35,000 fine and ordered to refund $50,000 in wrongfully charged termination fees by the NY State Attorney General’s office.

That precedent might come in handy in Washington state, where Frontier “accidentally” put former Verizon customer Steve Matheny in Redmond on an annual contract with a hefty cancellation fee.  When Frontier took over for Verizon, Matheny decided it was time to drop service.  Frontier sent him a final bill including a fee of $120 for terminating his service before his contract had ended.

Only one problem — he never had a contract.

“These folks rolled in and added a fee that no one committed to, at least I didn’t commit to,” he said.

Frontier ignored Matheny’s attempts to get the fee off his final bill, so he called KING-TV in Seattle for help.

As with so many other cases, when local TV stations feature Frontier’s mistakes and bad service on the 6 o’clock evening news, doors to a speedy resolution have a tendency to open.  Matheny got his $120 “fee” removed.

[flv width=”480″ height=”290″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/KING Seattle Bundled by accident charged a fee 8-24-10.mp4[/flv]

Redmond, Washington resident Steve Matheny joins a growing number of Frontier customers who suddenly find themselves on annual service contracts with hefty cancellation fees, despite the fact they never agreed to them.  KING-TV reports their intervention finally cut through Frontier’s red tape to get $120 in early cancellation fees removed from a final bill.  (2 minutes)

For West Virginia residents, the next time you experience a problem with your Frontier landline or broadband service, why not contact Bray Cary and ask him what he’ll do about it.  At the very least, ask him to pass you the plate of cookies.

38 Tennessee counties are about to face AT&T price deregulation, something critics contend will bring rate hikes of up to 50 percent for many of the state's most rural residents.

Attention rural residents in 38 counties in Tennessee with AT&T landlines: Start saving your money because AT&T will come looking for more of it soon enough.

As a result of 2009 legislation heavily promoted by the state’s largest phone company, AT&T has easily managed to pass a “competition test” it helped devise, triggering total deregulation of basic phone rates across the state.

Although some of the legislation’s supporters are celebrating the end of rate oversight by the Tennessee Regulatory Authority (TRA), claims that competition has broken out across Tennessee may be an exaggeration.  Critics contend many residents will face relentless AT&T rate increases, especially for the elderly and those living in rural areas — typically the poorest regions of the state.

AT&T’s competition test only required the presence of a potential competitor to meet the definition of “competition.”  Unfortunately, for many residents in the 38 affected counties, that competing cable or wireless provider often can’t or won’t provide reliable service, either because cable lines bypass rural areas or cell phone service offers poor signals.  That leaves many consumers at the mercy of AT&T, who can now charge whatever they like.

It’s a key flaw many state legislators fail to recognize when accepting the phone company’s argument that deregulation will save consumers money.  Documentary evidence suggests the reverse is true, especially in areas not well covered by cable and wireless competition. Those choosing the most basic levels of service typically face the largest rate hikes as telecommunications companies try to drive customers into multi-service bundles often approaching $200 a month.

For now, the first step is to do away with oversight and AT&T wasted no time pulling out provider maps for the 38 still-regulated counties in the state and found cable and cell phone competitors in all of them.  Despite the fact those services are not available to every resident, AT&T lawyer Joelle Phillips demanded the TRA immediately end rate regulation.

Customer Advocacy Lawyer Mary Leigh White warned the TRA AT&T would follow their track record in other states where rates were deregulated and raise prices up to 50 percent. Phillips told the Authority it didn’t matter — the law AT&T helped write and lobby for was clear:

“When a statute includes one thing specifically and doesn’t refer to other things, that the statute must be read to have done that on purpose,” said Phillips.

With that argument, the TRA capitulated Monday and voted unanimously to end rate oversight.

Consumers in the state who do find major price hikes in their future can blame the deregulation bill’s chief sponsors:

• Sen. Paul Stanley, (R-Collierville) (Resigned last August after caught in an extramarital affair with a 22-year old intern.)
• Sen. Dewayne Bunch, (R-Cleveland)
• Rep. Gerald McCormick, (R-Chattanooga)

[flv width=”640″ height=”380″]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/WSMV Nashville ATT Deregulated 8-23-10.flv[/flv]

WSMV-TV in Nashville covered the end of AT&T rate oversight and the implications the change will have on Tennessee phone bills.  (2 minutes)

Almost two years to the day Frontier Communications quietly introduced language in its customer agreements providing a monthly broadband usage allowance of just 5GB per month, the company has quietly removed that language from its terms and conditions.

The 5GB usage allowance was deemed generous by Frontier CEO Maggie Wilderotter.  Frontier claimed most of its 559,300 broadband subscribers (2008 numbers) consumed less than 1.5 gigabytes per month.  But news of the cap angered customers anyway, particularly in their biggest service area — Rochester, N.Y.  In fact, Frontier’s usage cap was what sparked the launch of Stop the Cap! in the summer of 2008.

While never universally enforced against the company’s DSL customers, Frontier has used that portion of its acceptable use policy to demand up to $250 a month from some “heavy users” in Mound, Minn.

Frontier’s usage limit language also played a role in a major controversy in April, 2009 when Time Warner Cable planned usage limits of their own for western New York customers already faced with Frontier’s 5GB usage limit.

The phone company used Time Warner’s planned usage cap as a marketing tool to switch to Frontier DSL service.

Frontier used Time Warner Cable's usage cap experiment against them in this ad to attract new customers in the spring of 2009.

This website has pounded Frontier for two years over its continued use of the 5GB language as part of its broadband policies.  We raised the issue with several state regulatory bodies as part of Frontier’s purchase of Verizon landlines in several states.  Several state utility commissions raised the usage cap issue with Frontier as a result, deeming it negative for rural broadband customers who would effectively endure rationed broadband service from a de facto monopoly provider.

We also criticized Frontier for promoting its MyFitv service, little more than a website containing Google ads and embedded videos already available on Hulu, while not bothering to tell its customers use of that service on a regular basis would put them perilously close to their 5GB allowance.

In the end, Frontier itself denied they would strictly enforce the 5GB limit, making its continued presence in the company’s terms and conditions illogical.

Now, the company has returned to the earlier language it formerly used, reserving the right to shut you off if you use the service excessively or abusively.  This resembles similar language from most broadband providers.  While not absolute in defining those terms, Frontier doesn’t commit to a specific number either.  Today’s “generous usage allowance” is tomorrow’s “rationing.”

If Frontier cuts off customers for using only a handful of gigabytes a month, deeming it excessive, we want to know about it.

Stop the Cap! opposes all Internet Overcharging schemes like usage caps, speed throttles, and so-called “consumption billing.”  We believe such limits retard the growth and potential of broadband service and are unwarranted when considering the ongoing decline in costs to provide the service.  We do not oppose providers dealing with customers who create major problems on their networks, but believe those issues are best settled privately between the company and the individual customer.

Providers must also be honest in recognizing that broadband is a dynamic medium.  They have a responsibility to grow their networks to meet demand, especially at current pricing which provides major financial returns for those offering the service.  We also believe broadband tiers should be limited to speed, not consumption.  Customers with higher data demands will naturally gravitate towards higher-priced, faster-speed tiers, providing higher revenue to offset the minimal costs of moving data back and forth.

Broadband customers will be loyal to the providers that treat them right.  We applaud Frontier Communications for finally removing the last vestiges of its infamous 5GB usage allowance.  Hopefully, going forward, Frontier will spend its time, energy and money improving its broadband service instead of trying to convince customers to use less of it.

Windstream CEO Jeff Gardner told a cable news audience Tuesday that the rural phone company already supplies broadband to 100 percent of its service areas where the service is “economically feasible” to provide.  Any additional expansion will only come with the assistance of the federal government’s broadband stimulus program.

“We’re in 23 states — mostly rural markets, so broadband reach is incredibly important to us,” Gardner said on CNBC’s Fast Money program.  “We’re getting to 90 percent of our customers today; in fact, we’ve built out to every customer that’s economically feasible, so the broadband plan that has been announced by the administration is critical to us getting to that last 10 percent.”

In 2006, when Windstream was created from the spun-off landlines Alltel used to own, broadband and business customers represented 35 percent of Windstream’s revenue.  Today that number has jumped to 53 percent.

That’s not surprising to many telecom analysts who suggest broadband will be key to the survival of rural landline phone companies, especially those adjacent to larger communities where cell phone providers extend coverage.

Windstream has applied for $238 million in broadband stimulus money and claims it is in the best position to spend that money to extend broadband to its most rural customers.  It also has a captive customer base in many areas, where no cable competition exists and wireless service is spotty.

Gardner promotes the results of their de facto monopoly, noting that while Verizon and AT&T lose up to 11 percent of their landline customers each year in certain areas, Windstream has lost just three percent.

Still, many think landline phone companies are ultimately a dying business and a real bad investment.  Except Gardner admits the most important reason why people buy stock in his company is the huge dividend payout.

“Most importantly, what people buy our stock for is our dividend,” he said. “We pay $1 dividend — an 8.5 percent yield, so our cash flow is something our investors are always tuned into.”

One of the show hosts acknowledged the huge dividend, but suggested that may be troublesome down the road.

“The dividend is interesting, but it’s getting to the point of where it might be a little too interesting, if you know what I mean,” said Guy Adami.

Adami may be referring to the practice of paying out a larger dividend than a company earns in revenue, something that can rapidly spiral a company into bankruptcy.

[flv]http://www.phillipdampier.com/video/CNBC Windstream CEO Jeff Gardner 7-27-10.flv[/flv]

Windstream CEO Jeff Gardner appeared on CNBC’s Fast Money program to talk up Windstream’s prospects for broadband, especially if the government delivers on the company’s request for $238 million in stimulus funds to extend service to its most rural customers.  (4 minutes)